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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Pre-commercial Demonstration of Direct Non-iterative State Estimator for Operational Use of Synchrophasor Management Systems

The objective of this project was to demonstrate functionality and performance of a Direct Non-iterative State Estimator (DNSE) integrated with NYPA’s Energy Management System (EMS) and with enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) synchrophasor platform from Electric Power Group (EPG). DNSE is designed to overcome a major obstacle to operational use of Synchro-Phasor Management Systems (SPMS) by providing to synchrophasor management systems (SPMS) applications a consistent and a complete synchrophasor data foundation in the same way that a traditional EMS State Estimator (SE) provides to EMS applications. Specifically, DNSE is designed to use synchrophasor measurements collected by a central PDC, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurements, and Energy Management System (EMS) network model, to obtain the complete state of the utility’s operating model at rates that are close to the synchrophasor data rates. In this way, the system is comprehensive in that it does not only cover the part of the network that is “visible” via synchrophasors, but also the part that is only “visible” through the SCADA measurements. Visualization needs associated with the use of DNSE results are fulfilled through suitably enhanced Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS), with the enhancements implemented by EPG. This project had the following goals in mind: To advance the deployment of commercial grade DNSE software application that relies on synchrophasor and SCADA data ; Apply DNSE at other utilities, to address a generic and fundamental need for “clean” operational data for synchrophasor applications; Provide means for “live” estimated data access by control system operators; Enhance potential for situational awareness through full system operational model coverage; Sub-second execution rate of the Direct Non-iterative State Estimator, eventually at a near-phasor data rate execution speed, i.e. < 0.1 sec. Anticipated benefits from this projects are: Enhanced reliability and improvements in the economic efficiency of bulk power system planning and operations; Providing “clean” data to other synchrophasor applications; Enhancement of situational awareness by providing the full operational model updated at near synchrophasor rate; A production-grade software tool that incorporate synchrophasor and SCADA data; Provides a basis for development of next generation monitoring and control applications, based on both SCADA and PMU data. Quanta Technology (QT) team worked in collaboration with Electric Power Group (EPG) whose team has enhanced its commercial Real Time Dynamics Monitoring System (RTDMS) to accommodate the requirements posed by DNSE application. EPG also provided its ePDC and Model-less Data Conditioning (PDVC) software for integration with DNSE+. QT developed the system requirements for DNSE; developed system architecture and defined interfaces between internal DNSE components. The core DNSE algorithm with all surrounding interfaces was named DNSE+. Since the DNSE development was done in a simulated system environment, QT used its PMU simulator that was enhanced during this project for development and factory acceptance testing (FAT). SCADA data in this stage was simulated by commercial PSS/e software. The output of DNSE are estimates of System states in C37.118-2 format, sent to RTDMS for further processing and display. As the number of these states is large, it was necessary to expand the C37.111-2 standard to accommodate large data sets. This enhancement was implemented in RTDMS. The demonstration of pre-production DNSE technology was done at NYPA using streaming field data from NYPA PMUs and from its RTUs through their SCADA system. NYPA provided ICCP interface as well as Common Information Model (CIM). The relevance of the DNSE+ application is that it provides state estimation of the power system based on hybrid set of data, consisting of both available PMU data and SCADA measurements. As this is a direct, non-iterative method of calculation of the system states, if does not suffer from convergence issues which is potential problem for conventional state estimators. Also, it can take any available PMU measurements, so it does not need to have a high percentage of PMU coverage needed in the case of Linear State Estimator. As the DNSE calculates synchrophasors of the system states (both phase and absolute value) as sub-second rate, this application can provide a basis for development of next generation of applications based both on SCADA and PMU data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Abundance Estimates of Spring–Summer Snake River Chinook Salmon for Fisheries Management

Abstract The Columbia River basin is home to a run of spring–summer Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that returns to the Snake River drainage of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington in the Pacific Northwest. Historically, the run was one of the more productive throughout the Columbia River basin. However, Snake River spring–summer Chinook Salmon have experienced declines in abundance due to overfishing, habitat degradation, and dams. Several stocks are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and are supported by mitigation hatcheries funded by Idaho Power Company, the Lower Snake River Compensation Plan, and the Bonneville Power Administration. To maximize tribal and state harvest of returning hatchery adults, minimize impacts on wild fish, and ensure that enough hatchery fish return to meet broodstock needs, careful fisheries management is required. Since 2008, managers have used hatchery adults, PIT-tagged as juveniles and detected at Lower Granite Dam, to generate adult abundance estimates. In season, these estimates inform state and tribal harvest shares and ensure that broodstock needs are met. Postseason, they provide smolt-to-adult survival and return rates. Since 2012, parentage-based tagging (PBT) has provided an alternative method to estimate stock- and age-specific returns at Lower Granite Dam, since returning hatchery adults sampled at Lower Granite Dam can be assigned to their parents. We compared stock-specific abundance estimates between PIT- and PBT-derived methodologies for return years 2016–2019. Across all years, PIT tag estimates accounted for 65% of the PBT-based estimates at Lower Granite Dam across all age-groups and release sites combined. This underrepresentation across all groups equated to 49,833 fish that were not accounted for in PIT tag abundance estimates. It is clear that PBT-based estimates should aide in-season harvest management and postseason run reconstruction to avoid the known bias of estimates from PIT tags, especially during years of low returns when increased accuracy is critical.

Coykendall, D. Katharine (ORCID:0000000211482397)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration approach and range of observed sap flow influences transpiration estimates from thermal dissipation sensors

Calibrating thermal dissipation (TD) sap flow sensors has become increasingly important to accurately estimate whole-tree transpiration, but it is unclear how the calibration approach itself influences the resulting coefficients and estimates. Here, we compare the two most common calibration approaches, gravimetric and potometric, using TD sensors inserted into Eucalyptus benthamii tree stems. The gravimetric approach uses an excised stem segment devoid of branches and leaves and pushes water through the stem using gravity, a positive force. The potometric approach uses a severed stem containing an intact canopy placed upright in a reservoir where water is pulled through the stem via transpiration, a negative force. We hypothesized that the positive pressure associated with gravimetric calibration would overestimate conductive sapwood area relative to that estimated from potometric calibration and that coefficients from these different approaches would result in different estimates of transpiration when applied to intact trees. We also predicted that calibrations could improve transpiration estimates by targeting the range of observed sap flow rates (i.e., K values) in intact trees. Conductive sapwood area was higher under gravimetric calibrations and resulting estimates of transpiration were lower compared to potometric calibrations. Segmented calibration curves, which fit two separate curves for the relationship between sap flux density (Fd) and sap flux index (K) based on the range of sap flow rates observed in intact trees, increased transpiration estimates from both gravimetric and potometric coefficients and diminished the magnitude of difference in transpiration estimates between approaches. Researchers should be aware that calibration approach and range of observed sap flow profoundly influences transpiration estimates from TD sensors and this likely applies to calibrations of other heat-based sap flow sensors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Comparing cropland net primary production estimates from inventory, a satellite-based model, and a process-based model in the Midwest of the United States

Accurately quantifying the spatial and temporal variability of net primary production (NPP) for croplands is essential to understand regional cropland carbon dynamics. We compared three NPP estimates for croplands in the Midwestern United States: inventory-based estimates using crop yield data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS); estimates from the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP product; and estimates from the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) process-based model. The three methods estimated mean NPP in the range of 469–687 g C m -2 yr -1 and total NPP in the range of 318–490 Tg C yr -1 for croplands in the Midwest in 2007 and 2008. The NPP estimates from crop yield data and the GEMS model showed the mean NPP for croplands was over 650 g C m -2 yr -1 while the MODIS NPP product estimated the mean NPP was less than 500 g C m -2 yr -1 . MODIS NPP also showed very different spatial variability of the cropland NPP from the other two methods. We found these differences were mainly caused by the difference in the land cover data and the crop specific information used in the methods. Our study demonstrated that the detailed mapping of the temporal and spatial change of crop species is critical for estimating the spatial and temporal variability of cropland NPP. Finally, we suggest that high resolution land cover data with species–specific crop information should be used in satellite-based and process-based models to improve carbon estimates for croplands.

Biogeochemical model↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying the influences of spectral resolution on uncertainty in leaf trait estimates through a Bayesian approach to RTM inversion

The remote monitoring of plant canopies is critically needed for understanding of terrestrial ecosystem mechanics and biodiversity as well as capturing the short- to long-term responses of vegetation to disturbance and climate change. A variety of orbital, sub-orbital, and field instruments have been used to retrieve optical spectral signals and to study different vegetation properties such as plant biochemistry, nutrient cycling, physiology, water status, and stress. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) provide a mechanistic link between vegetation properties and observed spectral features, and RTM spectral inversion is a useful framework for estimating these properties from spectral data. However, existing approaches to RTM spectral inversion are typically limited by the inability to characterize uncertainty in parameter estimates. Here, we introduce a Bayesian algorithm for the spectral inversion of the PROSPECT 5 leaf RTM that is distinct from past approaches in two important ways: First, the algorithm only uses reflectance and does not require transmittance observations, which have been plagued by a variety of measurement and equipment challenges. Second, the output is not a point estimate for each parameter but rather the joint probability distribution that includes estimates of parameter uncertainties and covariance structure. We validated our inversion approach using a database of leaf spectra together with measurements of equivalent water thickness (EWT) and leaf dry mass per unit area (LMA). The parameters estimated by our inversion were able to accurately reproduce the observed reflectance (RMSE VIS = 0.0063, RMSE NIR-SWIR = 0.0098) and transmittance (RMSE VIS = 0.0404, RMSE NIR-SWIR = 0.0551) for both broadleaved and conifer species. Inversion estimates of EWT and LMA for broadleaved species agreed well with direct measurements (CV EWT = 18.8%, CV LMA = 24.5%), while estimates for conifer species were less accurate (CV EWT = 53.2%, CV LMA = 63.3%). To examine the influence of spectral resolution on parameter uncertainty, we simulated leaf reflectance as observed by ten common remote sensing platforms with varying spectral configurations and performed a Bayesian inversion on the resulting spectra. We found that full-range hyperspectral platforms were able to retrieve all parameters accurately and precisely, while the parameter estimates of multispectral platforms were much less precise and prone to bias at high and low values. We also observed that variations in the width and location of spectral bands influenced the shape of the covariance structure of parameter estimates. Lastly, our Bayesian spectral inversion provides a powerful and versatile framework for future RTM development and single- and multi-instrumental remote sensing of vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Is the assumption of normality or log-normality for continuous response data critical for benchmark dose estimation?

Continuous responses (e.g. body weight) are widely used in risk assessment for determining the benchmark dose (BMD) which is used to derive a U.S. EPA reference dose. One critical question that is not often addressed in dose–response assessments is whether to model the continuous data as normally or log-normally distributed. Additionally, if lognormality is assumed, and only summarized response data (i.e., mean ± standard deviation) are available as is usual in the peer-reviewed literature, the BMD can only be approximated. In this study, using the “hybrid” method and relative deviation approach, we first evaluate six representative continuous dose–response datasets reporting individual animal responses to investigate the impact on BMD/BMDL estimates of (1) the distribution assumption and (2) the use of summarized versus individual animal data when a log-normal distribution is assumed. We also conduct simulation studies evaluating model fits to various known distributions to investigate whether the distribution assumption has influence on BMD/BMDL estimates. Our results indicate that BMDs estimated using the hybrid method are more sensitive to the distribution assumption than counterpart BMDs estimated using the relative deviation approach. The choice of distribution assumption has limited impact on the BMD/BMDL estimates when the within dose-group variance is small, while the lognormality assumption is a better choice for relative deviation method when data are more skewed because of its appropriateness in describing the relationship between mean and standard deviation. Additionally, the results suggest that the use of summarized data versus individual response data to characterize log-normal distributions has minimal impact on BMD estimates. - Highlights: • We investigate to what extent the distribution assumption can affect BMD estimates. • Both real data analysis and simulation study are conducted. • BMDs estimated using hybrid method are more sensitive to distribution assumption. • Summarized continuous data are adequate for BMD estimation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

REVERBERATION AND PHOTOIONIZATION ESTIMATES OF THE BROAD-LINE REGION RADIUS IN LOW-z QUASARS

Black hole mass estimation in quasars, especially at high redshift, involves the use of single-epoch spectra with signal-to-noise ratio and resolution that permit accurate measurement of the width of a broad line assumed to be a reliable virial estimator. Coupled with an estimate of the radius of the broad-line region (BLR) this yields the black hole mass M{sub BH}. The radius of the BLR may be inferred from an extrapolation of the correlation between source luminosity and reverberation-derived r{sub BLR} measures (the so-called Kaspi relation involving about 60 low-z sources). We are exploring a different method for estimating r{sub BLR} directly from inferred physical conditions in the BLR of each source. We report here on a comparison of r{sub BLR} estimates that come from our method and from reverberation mapping. Our ''photoionization'' method employs diagnostic line intensity ratios in the rest-frame range 1400-2000 A (Al III {lambda}1860/Si III] {lambda}1892, C IV {lambda}1549/Al III {lambda}1860) that enable derivation of the product of density and ionization parameter with the BLR distance derived from the definition of the ionization parameter. We find good agreement between our estimates of the density, ionization parameter, and r{sub BLR} and those from reverberation mapping. We suggest empirical corrections to improve the agreement between individual photoionization-derived r{sub BLR} values and those obtained from reverberation mapping. The results in this paper can be exploited to estimate M{sub BH} for large samples of high-z quasars using an appropriate virial broadening estimator. We show that the width of the UV intermediate emission lines are consistent with the width of H{beta}, thereby providing a reliable virial broadening estimator that can be measured in large samples of high-z quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating and Comparing Energy Estimation Methods at Water Resource Recovery Facilities

Water resource recovery facilities play a crucial role in the water-energy nexus, consuming a substantial amount of energy in the United States. Growing treatment volumes and more stringent water quality standards are expected to increase the amount of energy needed to treat wastewater, but accurately estimating energy consumption and potential remains challenging due to variability in scale, treatment methods, and effluent treatment standards. In this study, we used publicly available data to evaluate the accuracy of methods for estimating energy consumption and generation, then quantified uncertainty based on key factors like flow rate, treatment level, and geographic location. To validate methods, we estimated energy consumption and generation at the facility-level, then compared estimates to self-reported data from utilities in major U.S. cities. We found that process models of treatment trains under best practice configurations were accurate relative to other methods for estimating electricity use, total energy use, and electricity generation from biogas utilization, and less complex methods based on effluent treatment level and prime movers also performed well for estimating electricity consumption and generation, respectively. Applying the evaluated methods to a national inventory of treatment facilities, we estimate that annual energy consumption ranged from 56.3 x 10^3 to 82.5 x 10^3 TJ in 2012 and 83.6 x 10^3 to 127 x 10^3 TJ in 2042. Our results indicate that not all estimation methods are suited for every use case, so we recommend that researchers and practitioners select an estimation method based on data availability and desired computational intensity.

Hodson, Abigayle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do-calculus enables estimation of causal effects in partially observed biomolecular pathways

Abstract Motivation Estimating causal queries, such as changes in protein abundance in response to a perturbation, is a fundamental task in the analysis of biomolecular pathways. The estimation requires experimental measurements on the pathway components. However, in practice many pathway components are left unobserved (latent) because they are either unknown, or difficult to measure. Latent variable models (LVMs) are well-suited for such estimation. Unfortunately, LVM-based estimation of causal queries can be inaccurate when parameters of the latent variables are not uniquely identified, or when the number of latent variables is misspecified. This has limited the use of LVMs for causal inference in biomolecular pathways. Results In this article, we propose a general and practical approach for LVM-based estimation of causal queries. We prove that, despite the challenges above, LVM-based estimators of causal queries are accurate if the queries are identifiable according to Pearl’s do-calculus and describe an algorithm for its estimation. We illustrate the breadth and the practical utility of this approach for estimating causal queries in four synthetic and two experimental case studies, where structures of biomolecular pathways challenge the existing methods for causal query estimation. Availability and implementation The code and the data documenting all the case studies are available at https://github.com/srtaheri/LVMwithDoCalculus. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

An angle-dependent estimation of CT x-ray spectrum from rotational transmission measurements

Purpose: Computed tomography (CT) performance as well as dose and image quality is directly affected by the x-ray spectrum. However, the current assessment approaches of the CT x-ray spectrum require costly measurement equipment and complicated operational procedures, and are often limited to the spectrum corresponding to the center of rotation. In order to address these limitations, the authors propose an angle-dependent estimation technique, where the incident spectra across a wide range of angular trajectories can be estimated accurately with only a single phantom and a single axial scan in the absence of the knowledge of the bowtie filter. Methods: The proposed technique uses a uniform cylindrical phantom, made of ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene and positioned in an off-centered geometry. The projection data acquired with an axial scan have a twofold purpose. First, they serve as a reflection of the transmission measurements across different angular trajectories. Second, they are used to reconstruct the cross sectional image of the phantom, which is then utilized to compute the intersection length of each transmission measurement. With each CT detector element recording a range of transmission measurements for a single angular trajectory, the spectrum is estimated for that trajectory. A data conditioning procedure is used to combine information from hundreds of collected transmission measurements to accelerate the estimation speed, to reduce noise, and to improve estimation stability. The proposed spectral estimation technique was validated experimentally using a clinical scanner (Somatom Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare, Germany) with spectra provided by the manufacturer serving as the comparison standard. Results obtained with the proposed technique were compared against those obtained from a second conventional transmission measurement technique with two materials (i.e., Cu and Al). After validation, the proposed technique was applied to measure spectra from the clinical system across a range of angular trajectories [−15°, 15°] and spectrum settings (80, 100, 120, 140 kVp). Results: At 140 kVp, the proposed technique was comparable to the conventional technique in terms of the mean energy difference (MED, −0.29 keV) and the normalized root mean square difference (NRMSD, 0.84%) from the comparison standard compared to 0.64 keV and 1.56%, respectively, with the conventional technique. The average absolute MEDs and NRMSDs across kVp settings and angular trajectories were less than 0.61 keV and 3.41%, respectively, which indicates a high level of estimation accuracy and stability. Conclusions: An angle-dependent estimation technique of CT x-ray spectra from rotational transmission measurements was proposed. Compared with the conventional technique, the proposed method simplifies the measurement procedures and enables incident spectral estimation for a wide range of angular trajectories. The proposed technique is suitable for rigorous research objectives as well as routine clinical quality control procedures.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Patient-based estimation of organ dose for a population of 58 adult patients across 13 protocol categories

Purpose: This study aimed to provide a comprehensive patient-specific organ dose estimation across a multiplicity of computed tomography (CT) examination protocols. Methods: A validated Monte Carlo program was employed to model a common CT system (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare). The organ and effective doses were estimated from 13 commonly used body and neurological CT examination. The dose estimation was performed on 58 adult computational extended cardiac-torso phantoms (35 male, 23 female, mean age 51.5 years, mean weight 80.2 kg). The organ dose normalized by CTDI{sub vol} (h factor) and effective dose normalized by the dose length product (DLP) (k factor) were calculated from the results. A mathematical model was derived for the correlation between the h and k factors with the patient size across the protocols. Based on this mathematical model, a dose estimation iPhone operating system application was designed and developed to be used as a tool to estimate dose to the patients for a variety of routinely used CT examinations. Results: The organ dose results across all the protocols showed an exponential decrease with patient body size. The correlation was generally strong for the organs which were fully or partially located inside the scan coverage (Pearson sample correlation coefficient (r) of 0.49). The correlation was weaker for organs outside the scan coverage for which distance between the organ and the irradiation area was a stronger predictor of dose to the organ. For body protocols, the effective dose before and after normalization by DLP decreased exponentially with increasing patient's body diameter (r > 0.85). The exponential relationship between effective dose and patient's body diameter was significantly weaker for neurological protocols (r < 0.41), where the trunk length was a slightly stronger predictor of effective dose (0.15 < r < 0.46). Conclusions: While the most accurate estimation of a patient dose requires specific modeling of the patient anatomy, a first order approximation of organ and effective doses from routine CT scan protocols can be reasonably estimated using size specific factors. Estimation accuracy is generally poor for organ outside the scan range and for neurological protocols. The dose calculator designed in this study can be used to conveniently estimate and report the dose values for a patient across a multiplicity of CT scan protocols.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Estimation by Scientific Data Mining with Classical Methods to Automate Learning Strategies of Scientists

Experimental results are often plotted as 2-dimensional graphical plots (aka graphs) in scientific domains depicting dependent versus independent variables to aid visual analysis of processes. Repeatedly performing laboratory experiments consumes significant time and resources, motivating the need for computational estimation. The goals are to estimate the graph obtained in an experiment given its input conditions, and to estimate the conditions that would lead to a desired graph. Existing estimation approaches often do not meet accuracy and efficiency needs of targeted applications. We develop a computational estimation approach called AutoDomainMine that integrates clustering and classification over complex scientific data in a framework so as to automate classical learning methods of scientists. Knowledge discovered thereby from a database of existing experiments serves as the basis for estimation. Challenges include preserving domain semantics in clustering, finding matching strategies in classification, striking a good balance between elaboration and conciseness while displaying estimation results based on needs of targeted users, and deriving objective measures to capture subjective user interests. These and other challenges are addressed in this work. The AutoDomainMine approach is used to build a computational estimation system, rigorously evaluated with real data in Materials Science. Our evaluation confirms that AutoDomainMine provides desired accuracy and efficiency in computational estimation. It is extendable to other science and engineering domains as proved by adaptation of its sub-processes within fields such as Bioinformatics and Nanotechnology.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2019

CatCost™ (Catalyst Cost Estimation Tool) [SWR-18-74]

CatCost™ is a state-of-the-art cost estimation tool designed to reduce the cost uncertainty associated with pre-commercial catalyst materials. The tool combines industry-standard cost estimation methods and resources into an intuitive suite of tools to bring actionable cost insight to every step of catalyst research and development. CatCost™ allows the rapid development of comprehensive catalyst cost estimates. It incorporates detailed insight into manufacturing methods, especially for pre-commercial catalysts, without requiring any process design experience. The tool has been designed from the ground up with a number of user-selectable estimation methods, pricing libraries, and ease-of-use features to tailor an estimate to a user's skill level and need for customization, empowering researchers of all skill-levels to make better R&D decisions throughout the catalyst development cycle. Our costing methods are fully transparent and enable power-users the ability to adjust any estimate to the economic realities of their operation. The tool has been designed from the ground up with a number of user-selectable estimation methods, pricing libraries, and ease-of-use features to tailor an estimate to a user's skill level and need for customization, empowering researchers of all skill-levels to make better R&D decisions throughout the catalyst development cycle. Our costing methods are fully transparent and enable power-users the ability to adjust any estimate to the economic realities of their operation. Features include: Raw materials pricing: Libraries of common chemicals, cost scaling indices, guidance for obtaining bulk quotes, and methods for extrapolating laboratory-scale prices to bulk. Simplified step method for synthesis by a contract manufacturer: All-in hourly cost for process equipment using methods and data from tollers. (Excel-only in v1.0)

Baddour, Frederick↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of Global Precipitation Estimates across a Range of Temporal and Spatial Scales

Characteristics of precipitation estimates for rate and amount from three global high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs), four global climate data records (CDRs), and four reanalyses are compared. All datasets considered have at least daily temporal resolution. Estimates of global precipitation differ widely from one product to the next, with some differences likely due to differing goals in producing the estimates. HRPPs are intended to produce the best snapshot of the precipitation estimate locally. CDRs of precipitation emphasize homogeneity over instantaneous accuracy. Precipitation estimates from global reanalyses are dynamically consistent with the large-scale circulation but tend to compare poorly to rain gauge estimates since they are forecast by the reanalysis system and precipitation is not assimilated. Regional differences among the estimates in the means and variances are as large as the means and variances, respectively. Even with similar monthly totals, precipitation rates vary significantly among the estimates. Temporal correlations among datasets are large at annual and daily time scales, suggesting that compensating bias errors at annual and random errors at daily time scales dominate the differences. However, the signal-to-noise ratio at intermediate (monthly) time scales can be large enough to result in high correlations overall. It is shown that differences on annual time scales and continental regions are around 0.8 mm day -1 , which corresponds to 23 W m -2 . These wide variations in the estimates, even for global averages, highlight the need for better constrained precipitation products in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes

The northern wetland methane emission estimates have large uncertainties. Inversion models are a qualified method to estimate the methane fluxes and emissions in northern latitudes but when atmospheric observations are sparse, the models are only as good as their a priori estimates. Thus, improving a priori estimates is a competent way to reduce uncertainties and enhance emission estimates in the sparsely sampled regions. Here, we use a novel way to integrate remote sensing soil freeze/thaw (F/T) status from SMOS satellite to better capture the seasonality of methane emissions in the northern high latitude. The SMOS F/T data provide daily information of soil freezing state in the northern latitudes, and in this study, the data is used to define the cold season in the high latitudes and, thus, improve our knowledge of the seasonal cycle of biospheric methane fluxes. The SMOS F/T data is implemented to LPX-Bern DYPTOP model estimates and the modified fluxes are used as a biospheric a priori in the inversion model CarbonTracker Europe-CH 4 . The implementation of the SMOS F/T soil state is shown to be beneficial in improving the inversion model’s cold season biospheric flux estimates. Our results show that cold season biospheric CH4 emissions in northern high latitudes are approximately 0.60 Tg lower than previously estimated, which corresponds to 17% reduction in the cold season biospheric emissions. This reduction is partly compensated by increased anthropogenic emissions in the same area (0.23 Tg), and the results also indicates that the anthropogenic emissions could have even larger contribution in cold season than estimated here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nonparametric estimators for incomplete surveys

Nonparametric estimators, such as the 1/V{sub max} estimator and the C{sup −} estimator, have been applied extensively to estimate luminosity functions (LFs) of astronomical sources from complete, truncated survey data sets. Application of such estimators to incomplete data sets typically requires further truncation of data, separation into subsets of constant completeness, and/or correction for incompleteness-induced bias. In this paper, we derive generalizations of the above estimators designed for use with incomplete, truncated data sets. We compare these generalized nonparametric estimators, investigate some of their simple statistical properties, and validate them using Monte Carlo simulation methods. We apply a nonparametric estimator to data obtained from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey to estimate the QSO LF for redshifts 0.68<z<4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗