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At least 433 records · Page 24

Navigation accuracy analysis for the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS) experiment on EP/EUVE

A navigation accuracy analysis of the TONS (TDRSS Onboard Navigation System) experiment on the Explorer Platform/Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EP/EUVE) is reported. The analysis process includes both sequential estimation covariance analysis and the processing of 'realistic' simulated tracking data. The sensitivity of the navigation accuracy to force modeling and measurement errors is evaluated as a function of the tracking schedule and the process noise model tuning parameters.

Gramling, C. J.↗

Utilization of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology: Sensitivity and Assimilation

This paper investigates the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to input meteorological variables, viz- surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure. The sensitivity studies have been carried out for a wide range of land surface variables such as wind speed, leaf area index and surface temperatures. Errors in the surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure result in errors of different signs in the computed potential evapotranspiration. This result has implications for use of estimated values from satellite data or analysis of surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure in large scale hydrological modeling. The comparison of cumulative potential evapotranspiration estimates using ground observations and satellite observations over Manhattan, Kansas for a period of several months shows very little difference between the two. The cumulative differences between the ground based and satellite based estimates of potential evapotranspiration amounted to less that 20mm over a 18 month period and a percentage difference of 15%. The use of satellite estimates of surface skin temperature in hydrological modeling to update the soil moisture using a physical adjustment concept is studied in detail including the extent of changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of surface skin temperature. The soil moisture of the surface layer is adjusted by 0.9mm over a 10 day period as a result of a 3K difference between the predicted and the observed surface temperature. This is a considerable amount given the fact that the top layer can hold only 5mm of water.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗

Evaluation of 10‐m Wind Speed From ISD Meteorological Stations and the MERRA‐2 Reanalysis: Impacts on Dust Emission in the Arabian Peninsula

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols when studying the radiative balance and climate of the planet. There are different dust emission schemes utilized by the atmospheric modeling communities, many of which disagree on basic output quantities such as mass of dust emitted and distribution of mass among size bins. In this work, we examined mineral dust emission from a leading model scheme, the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), as utilized in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Reanalysis and compared it to dust emissions calculated using wind measurements from ground based weather stations located in the Arabian Peninsula that are included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) integrated surface database (ISD). An intercomparison of 10-m wind speed is shown for the Arabian Peninsula region, differences of the observed and modeled wind field are quantified, and impacts of differences on dust emissions are calculated. This analysis shows 10-m winds in the ISD were generally lower than MERRA-2 winds, which propagated to dust emissions errors. Our estimate of one of the most significant mass impacts in dust emission is 0.178 Tg/year/grid box with a percent change of over 200% to the recalculated dust emissions from MERRA-2. These differences in wind speed propagated to a difference in dust mass emitted by the use of a static source function which aids in scaling the mass emitted by the availability of dust in each grid. Additionally, the magnitude of these differences varies seasonally.

winds↗

Orbit determination covariance analysis for the Deep Space Program Science Experiment mission

To define an appropriate orbit support procedure for the DSPSE mission, detailed permission orbit determination covariance analyses have been performed for the translunar and trans-Geographos mission phases. Preliminary analyses were also performed for the lunar mapping mission phase. These analyses are designed to assess the tracking patterns and the amount of tracking data needed to obtain orbit solutions of required accuracy for each mission phase and before and after each major orbit perturbation, such as orbit maneuvers and flybys of the Earth and Moon. In addition to operational orbit determination procedures, these analyses identify major error sources, estimate their contribution to orbital errors, and address possible strategies to reduce orbit determination error. For the lunar orbit phase, several lunar gravity error modeling approaches have been investigated. The covariance analysis results presented in this paper will serve as a guide for providing orbit determination support for the DSPSE mission.

Beckman, M.↗

Automated Track Recognition and Event Reconstruction in Nuclear Emulsion

The major advantages of nuclear emulsion for detecting charged particles are its submicron position resolution and sensitivity to minimum ionizing particles. These must be balanced, however, against the difficult manual microscope measurement by skilled observers required for the analysis. We have developed an automated system to acquire and analyze the microscope images from emulsion chambers. Each emulsion plate is analyzed independently, allowing coincidence techniques to be used in order to reject back- ground and estimate error rates. The system has been used to analyze a sample of high-multiplicity Pb-Pb interactions (charged particle multiplicities approx. 1100) produced by the 158 GeV/c per nucleon Pb-208 beam at CERN. Automatically reconstructed track lists agree with our best manual measurements to 3%. We describe the image analysis and track reconstruction techniques, and discuss the measurement and reconstruction uncertainties.

Deines-Jones, P.↗

Global-scale Evaluation of SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT Soil Moisture Products Using Triple Collocation

Global-scale surface soil moisture products are currently available from multiple remote sensing platforms. Footprint-scale assessments of these products are generally restricted to limited number of densely-instrumented validation sites. However, by taking active and passive soil moisture products together with a third independent soil moisture estimates via land surface modeling, triple collocation (TC) can be applied to estimate the correlation metric of satellite soil moisture products (versus an unknown ground truth) over a quasi-global domain. Here, an assessment of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) surface soil moisture retrievals via TC is presented. Considering the potential violation of TC error assumptions, the impact of active-passive and satellite-model error cross correlations on the TC-derived inter-comparison results is examined at in situ sites using quadruple collocation analysis. In addition, confidence intervals for the TC-estimated correlation metric are constructed from moving-block bootstrap sampling designed to preserve the temporal persistence of the original (unevenly-sampled) soil moisture time-series. This study is the first to apply TC to obtain a robust global-scale cross-assessment of SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT soil moisture retrieval accuracy in terms of anomaly temporal correlation. Our results confirm the overall advantage of SMAP (with a global average anomaly correlation of 0.76) over SMOS (0.66) and ASCAT (0.63) that has been established in several recent regional, ground-based studies. SMAP is also the best-performing product over the majority of applicable land pixels (52%), although SMOS and ASCAT each shows advantage in distinct geographic regions.

global-scale↗

Center of mass estimation in closed vortices - A verification in principle and practice

The problem of tracking closed mesoscale vortices using center of mass estimation techniques is studied. Three estimators are evaluated using data from a warm core Gulf Stream ring. The comparisons show that a method based on the intersection of perpendicular bisectors and one using a least-squares fit of a conic section perform comparably. The perpendicular bisector algorithm is used in conjunction with a Gaussian ring model and a star-shaped survey pattern to produce an expected error curve as a function of vortex translation, survey speed and vortex size. For typical ring parameters, center estimation is usually possible to within + or - 5 km. The feasibility of using differing data sets to construct a history of ring motion based on a coordinate system moving with the ring is also investigated. In this way, the validity of using satellite-derived data and drifter trajectories to estimate the center of mass of a mesoscale feature is assessed. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the location of the deeper structure of the ring and the surface expression are sufficiently well correlated to permit dynamically relevant calculations based on surface measurements. It is shown that satellite-derived data can be used to approximate the center of mass trajectory to within the error in the individual center estimates for the period analyzed. The Lagrangian-drifter-derived centers are offset from the center of mass trajectory in a manner consistent with kinematic arguments.

Hooker, S. B.↗

Assessment of M2020 Terrain Relative Landing Accuracy: Flight Performance vs Predicts

Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) was a critical enabling Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) technology that enabled Mars 2020 mission Perseverance rover to land at Jezero crater. TRN pro-vides real-time, autonomous, map-relative position determination and generates a landing target based on a priori knowledge of hazards. The required performance for TRN was to land within 60m of the selected target. The required 60m was sub-allocated to various error sources in three major categories: targeting error, knowledge error, and control error. The targeting error is the error in selecting an appropriate landing target and the knowledge of the target on the surface. It includes the Lander Vision System (LVS) position localization with respect the ground, the synchronization between the Lander Vision System measurement and the main Navigation filter, and errors associated with the LVS Reference Map and Safe Target Selec-tion (STS). The knowledge error is the contribution of knowledge growth from the synchronization with LVS to touchdown. The control error encompasses how accurately the system could stay on the desired reference trajectory. The TRN error budget uses a combination of analysis, simulation, and hardware test-ing results to bound the various error contributions obtained during the verification and validation process. This paper first presents a description the TRN system, focusing on the architecture of LVS and STS. The paper then gives detailed overview of the TRN error budget, with a description of the major error contribu-tions in each of the three categories. Next, the paper gives the results for three versions of the error budget, pre-launch, in-flight pre-landing, and post-landing. The paper compares the pre-flight analysis, the pre-landing analysis using in-flight data during cruise, to the post-landing analysis of the TRN performance. Pre-landing analysis best estimate of the landing performance was 33m, compared to the 60m require-ment. Post-landing analysis estimated a landing accuracy of 8.53m or better, much better than the 33m pre-landing estimate. The actual post-landing imagery calculated the distance of the rover to the targeted location to be 5m. The post-landing analysis closely bounds the image-based assessment of landing accu-racy, indicating the success of the error budget architecture in bounding the landing accuracy, as well as the fidelity of the simulations used to model and predict performance.

Chen, Allen↗

Theoretical studies of the potential surface for the F - H2 greater than HF + H reaction

The F + H2 yields HF + H potential energy hypersurface was studied in the saddle point and entrance channel regions. Using a large (5s 5p 3d 2f 1g/4s 3p 2d) atomic natural orbital basis set, a classical barrier height of 1.86 kcal/mole was obtained at the CASSCF/multireference CI level (MRCI) after correcting for basis set superposition error and including a Davidson correction (+Q) for higher excitations. Based upon an analysis of the computed results, the true classical barrier is estimated to be about 1.4 kcal/mole. The location of the bottleneck on the lowest vibrationally adiabatic potential curve was also computed and the translational energy threshold determined from a one-dimensional tunneling calculation. Using the difference between the calculated and experimental threshold to adjust the classical barrier height on the computed surface yields a classical barrier in the range of 1.0 to 1.5 kcal/mole. Combining the results of the direct estimates of the classical barrier height with the empirical values obtained from the approximation calculations of the dynamical threshold, it is predicted that the true classical barrier height is 1.4 + or - 0.4 kcal/mole. Arguments are presented in favor of including the relatively large +Q correction obtained when nine electrons are correlated at the CASSCF/MRCI level.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

Adaptive computational methods for aerothermal heating analysis

The development of adaptive gridding techniques for finite-element analysis of fluid dynamics equations is described. The developmental work was done with the Euler equations with concentration on shock and inviscid flow field capturing. Ultimately this methodology is to be applied to a viscous analysis for the purpose of predicting accurate aerothermal loads on complex shapes subjected to high speed flow environments. The development of local error estimate strategies as a basis for refinement strategies is discussed, as well as the refinement strategies themselves. The application of the strategies to triangular elements and a finite-element flux-corrected-transport numerical scheme are presented. The implementation of these strategies in the GIM/PAGE code for 2-D and 3-D applications is documented and demonstrated.

Price, John M.↗

Order reduction in linear state estimation under performance constraints

The design and analysis of minimal-order state estimators for possibly time-varying linear systems, under constraints on the maximal allowable mean-square error, are considered. A global lower bound on the optimal error is derived, along with a lower bound on the minimal estimator order, needed for meeting the performance constraint. The ideal reduced-order estimator which satisfies the lower bound is derived, along with conditions for its realizability. When the ideal estimator is not realizable, its structure forms a suboptimal estimator, which maintains, in some sense, a local optimality property and is called the pseudoideal estimator. The mean-square error of the pseudoideal estimator defines upper bounds on the optimal error and on the estimator order needed for meeting the performance constraint. The lower and the upper bounds on the order define a reduced search set for the design problem. When the distance between the ideal and the pseudoideal estimators is sufficiently small in a certain numerical sense, the pseudoideal estimator may be considered optimal for practical purposes.

Baram, Yoram↗

Carbon-Water-Energy Relations for Selected River Basins

A biophysical process-based model was run using satellite, assimilated and ancillary data for four years (1987-1990) to calculate components of total evaporation (transpiration, interception, soil and snow evaporation), net radiation, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and net primary productivity over the global land surface. Satellite observations provided fractional vegetation cover, solar and photosynthetically active radiation incident of the surface, surface albedo, fractional cloud cover, air temperature and vapor pressure. The friction velocity and surface air pressure are obtained from a four dimensional data assimilation results, while precipitation is either only surface observations or a blended product of surface and satellite observations. All surface and satellite data are monthly mean values; precipitation has been disaggregated into daily values. All biophysical parameters of the model are prescribed according to published records. From these global land surface calculations results for river basins are derived using digital templates of basin boundaries. Comparisons with field observations (micrometeorologic, catchment water balance, biomass production) and atmospheric water budget analysis for monthly evaporation from six river basins have been done to assess errors in the calculations. Comparisons are also made with previous estimates of zonal variations of evaporation and net primary productivity. Efficiencies of transpiration, total evaporation and radiation use, and evaporative fraction for selected river basins will be presented.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Validation of Small Satellite Dynamics Simulation Modules using ASTERIA Flight Data

ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics) was a CubeSat space telescope that operated in low-Earth orbit, having been deployed from the International Space Station in 2017. The spacecraft has achieved sub-arcsecond pointing stability and millikelvin thermal stability over 20-minute observations. A key enabling feature of the ASTERIA mission is the low level of pointing error that has been demonstrated under ASTERIA’s fine pointing control mode. Prior to launch, the ASTERIA mission performed analysis and simulations to estimate the in-flight pointing performance. This analysis used reaction wheel models provided by JPL’s Small Satellite Dynamics Testbed (SSDT), which had performed Kistler table testing to characterize the jitter caused by the reaction wheels of the Blue Canyon Technologies XACT attitude control unit within ASTERIA. These models were subsequently incorporated into the SSDT simulation. The main source of jitter, the high-frequency attitude disturbance over the camera exposure time, on ASTERIA is the set of rotating reaction wheels that are used for maintaining fine pointing during observations. The reaction wheels impart disturbance forces and torques continuously that cause unwanted motion during imaging. Increased jitter consequently leads to blurring of the image. Therefore, to benefit all SmallSat missions devoted to photometric or spectroscopic astrophysics applications, an on-orbit flight data acquisition and jitter testing campaign was performed in an attempt to help validate the SSDT’s simulation models. This paper describes the process used to validate several simulation models and attempt to characterize the ASTERIA jitter by analyzing the size of the resulting spot size for the target stars as a function of wheel speed, having commanded four wheel speeds for each of three stars of known brightness. After summarizing the on-orbit observation and jitter level measurement process, this paper compares the results obtained from the flight operational environment to the corresponding set of simulation jitter levels. Though the flight data obtained during this experiment was not sufficient to validate the simulation’s jitter model, other models have been validated with flight data, including the magnetic field, orbit propagation, sun position, and long-duration orbit decay models, which may be used by all other projects that use the SSDT’s simulation to increase system capability knowledge.

Mohan, Swati↗

Diagnosing Tropical Divergent Circulations From Satellite-Derived Diabatic Forcing and Variational Integral Constraints

Large-scale divergent circulations are part of the atmospheric dynamic response to diabatic heating from condensation, radiative processes, and surface energy fluxes. Vertical motion and the associated divergent wind is thus intimately tied to the hydrologic cycle and the global beat balance. Despite its importance, the divergent circulation is too small in comparison to the rotational flow to measure directly with any accuracy. Vertical motions are recovered diagnostically from reanalyses and, as such, are subject to shortcomings in model physics, numerics, and data availability. While reanalysis estimates of tropical divergent circulations are much improved over those from the Global Weather Experiment, there are still substantial differences between products from operational centers. This is because these circulations are still forced largely by model physics and only secondarily by observations. In order to produce a refined estimate of tropical divergence and its interannual variability we have used a number of remotely-sensed data sets along with variational constraints to improve upon reanalysis estimates. Among these are: precipitation from SSM/I and GPCP, TOVS Path-A vertical cloud distributions; ISCCP radiative cooling rates; TOA radiative fluxes from ERBS, surface radiative fluxes from the SRB project, and surface latent and sensible flux estimates from SSM/I. The TOVS Path-A data constrain the divergent outflow in precipitating regions to have the same vertical structure as observed cloudiness. Using integral constraints for moisture, heat, and mass balance, we retrieve consistent divergent wind flows. We examine the ability of this type analysis to capture regional details of ENSO related perturbations to the divergent wind and associated tropical energy balance. Precipitation from satellite is found to be the major constraint in supplying this horizontal structure. We also consider the ability of this analysis to quantify integrated (land vs. ocean) fluctuations in the global monsoonal flow and energy balance. This depends, of course, on the error characteristics of the data constraints. Some estimate of these properties and their relative importance is provided.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Comparison of MERRA-2 and ECCO-V4 Ocean Surface Heat Fluxes: Consequences of Different Forcing Feedbacks on Ocean Circulation and Implications for Climate Data Assimilation

Forcing ocean models with reanalysis data is a common practice in ocean modeling. As part of this practice, prescribed atmospheric state variables and interactive ocean SST (Sea Surface Temperature) are used to calculate fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. When forcing an ocean model with reanalysis fields, errors in the reanalysis data, errors in the ocean model and errors in the forcing formulation will generate a different solution compared to other ocean reanalysis solutions (which also have their own errors). As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere reanalysis, we compare surface heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art oceanic reanalysis, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4, Release 2 (ECCO-v4). Then, we investigate the errors associated with the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model) ocean model in its ECCO-v4 ocean reanalysis configuration (1992-2011) when it is forced with MERRA- 2 atmospheric reanalysis fields instead of with the ECCO-v4 adjoint optimized ERA-interim state variables. This is done by forcing ECCO-v4 ocean with and without feedbacks from MERRA-2 related to turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture and the outgoing long wave radiation. In addition, we introduce an intermediate forcing method that includes only the feedback from the interactive outgoing long wave radiation. The resulting ocean circulation is compared with ECCO-v4 reanalysis and in-situ observations. We show that, without feedbacks, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2 (which are directly related to the fact it was created without interactive ocean) result in considerable SST drifts and a large reduction in sea level. The bulk formulae and interactive outgoing long wave radiation, although providing air-sea feedbacks and reducing model-data misfit, strongly relax the ocean to observed SST and may result in unwanted features such as large change in the water budget. These features have implications in a desired forcing recipe to be used. The results strongly and unambiguously argue for next generation data assimilation climate studies to involve fully coupled systems.

MERRA-2↗