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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

An uncertainty-aware strategy for plasma mechanism reduction with directed weighted graphs

In this work, we present a framework for the analysis and reduction of plasma mechanisms by means of weighted directed graphs, in which reactions and species are both treated as nodes. The methodology consists of two distinct analyses. The first, which is qualitative, relies on graph spatializations via force-directed algorithms to discover the predominant global patterns in the chemical model. The second ranks the reactions based on their shortest paths' lengths from/to the species of interest and their relative contributions to the power balance. Further, this quantitative investigation enables a strategy for mechanism reduction that is fully automatized, as it does not require any expert knowledge, highly effective, as it generates reduced mechanisms that are highly accurate while relying on a small number of processes, and easily interpretable, as the algorithm justifies the importance of the retained reactions by outputting their related chemical pathways. Additionally, the work proposes a methodology extension that employs ensembles of graphs to improve the robustness of the reduced mechanism to reaction parameter uncertainties. The approach, here tested for steady-state predictions of a plasma system characterizing negative hydrogen ion sources, is general and can be used in a wide variety of applications outside the particular nuclear fusion context demonstrated in this work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling aerosol transmission spectra from n(λ) and k(λ) infrared optical constants measurements of organic liquids and solids

The effects of light scattering and refraction play significantly different roles for aerosols than for bulk materials, making it challenging to identify aerosolized chemicals using traditional spectral methods or spectral reference libraries. Due to a potentially infinite number of particle morphologies, sizes, and compositions, constructing a database of laboratory-measured aerosol spectra is not a practical solution. Here, as an alternative approach, the measured n / k optical vectors of two example organic materials (diethyl phthalate and D-mannitol) are used in combination with particle absorption / scattering theory (Mie theory and FDTD) and the Beer-Lambert law to generate a series of synthetic infrared transmission / scattered light spectra. The synthetic spectra show significant differences versus simple slab transmission spectra, even for small changes in particle size (e.g., 5 vs. 10 µm) for both single particles and ensembles, potentially serving as useful reference data for aerosol sensing. For spherical single particles with diameters of 1 to 10 µm, FDTD simulations predict changes in the magnitudes of spectral shifts and the shapes of the peaks vs. particle size with only small deviations from Mie theory predictions, yet reliably capture the direction of the shifts. Typical spectral peak shifts in the longwave infrared correspond to Δλ ∼0.20 µm (∼34 cm -1 ) when compared to corresponding slab transmission spectra. Additionally, synthetic spectra generated from the n / k values derived using two different methods (KBr pellet transmission and single-angle reflectance) are compared using the Mie theory model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

GrainNN: A neighbor-aware long short-term memory network for predicting microstructure evolution during polycrystalline grain formation

High fidelity simulations of grain formation in alloys are an indispensable tool for process-to-mechanical-properties characterization. Such simulations, however, can be computationally expensive as they require fine spatial and temporal discretizations. Their cost becomes an obstacle to parametric studies and ensemble runs and ultimately makes downstream tasks like optimal control and uncertainty quantification challenging. To enable such downstream tasks, we introduce GrainNN, an efficient and accurate reduced-order model for epitaxial grain growth in additive manufacturing conditions. GrainNN is a sequence-to-sequence long-short-term-memory (LSTM) deep neural network that evolves the dynamics of manually crafted features. Its innovations are (1) an attention mechanism with grain-microstructure-specific transformer architecture; and (2) an overlapping combination of several clones of the network to generalize to grain configurations that are different from those used for training. This design enables GrainNN to predict grain formation for unseen physical parameters, grain number, domain size and geometry. Furthermore, GrainNN not only reconstructs the quantities of interest but also can be pointwise accurate. In our numerical experiments, we use a polycrystalline phase field method to both generate the training data and assess GrainNN. For multiparametric, ensemble simulations with many grains, GrainNN can be orders of magnitude faster than phase field simulations, while delivering 5%–15% pointwise error. Additionally, this speedup includes the cost of the phase field simulations for generating training data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decoding the proton’s gluonic density with lattice QCD-informed machine learning

We present a first machine learning-based decoding of the gluonic structure of the proton from lattice QCD using a variational autoencoder inverse mapper (VAIM). Harnessing the power of generative AI, we predict the parton distribution function (PDF) of the gluon given information on the reduced pseudo-Ioffe-time distributions (RpITDs) as calculated from an ensemble with lattice spacing a ≈ 0.09 fm and a pion mass of M π ≈ 310 MeV. The resulting gluon PDF is consistent with phenomenological global fits within uncertainties, particularly in the intermediate-to-high-x region where lattice data are most constraining. A subsequent correlation analysis confirms that the VAIM learns a meaningful latent representation, highlighting the potential of generative AI to bridge lattice QCD and phenomenological extractions within a unified analysis framework.

Gluon parton distribution function↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep neural network uncertainty quantification for LArTPC reconstruction

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural networks with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainty and robust performance against overconfidence and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples are critical for their full deployment in analyzing experimental data. While numerous UQ methods have been tested on simple datasets, performance evaluations for more complex tasks and datasets are scarce. Here we assess the application of selected deep learning UQ methods on the task of particle classification using the PiLArNet monte carlo 3D LArTPC point cloud dataset. We observe that UQ methods not only allow for better rejection of prediction mistakes and OOD detection, but also generally achieve higher overall accuracy across different task settings. We assess the precision of uncertainty quantification using different evaluation metrics, such as distributional separation of prediction entropy across correctly and incorrectly identified samples, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), and expected calibration error from observed empirical accuracy. We conclude that ensembling methods can obtain well calibrated classification probabilities and generally perform better than other existing methods in deep learning UQ literature.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging AI and Spatial Data to Unlock Pipeline Integrity Insights: NETL’s Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)

Maintaining the integrity of natural gas infrastructure plays a critical role in ensuring energy security. Robust, data-driven foundational AI models for pipeline integrity can help address risk management and mitigation issues. Trusted foundational models can help with industry adoption and accelerate innovation by enhancing integrity predictions, reduce costs, and informing infrastructure build-out. The AIIM dashboard was released in 2022 and utilizes multi-ML models for ensemble-type insights. It was expanded to include analytics on reported incidents. It was developed as an ESRI Dashboard to support data visualization & interrogation and contains pipeline data and model results.

Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lattice QCD Calculation of the Subtraction Function in Forward Compton Amplitude

The subtraction function plays a pivotal role in calculations involving the forward Compton amplitude, which is crucial for predicting the Lamb shift in muonic atoms, as well as the proton-neutron mass difference. In this Letter, we present a lattice QCD calculation of the subtraction function using two domain wall fermion gauge ensembles near the physical pion mass. We utilize a recently proposed subtraction point, demonstrating its advantage in mitigating statistical and systematic uncertainties by eliminating the need for ground-state subtraction. Our results reveal significant contributions from N⁢π intermediate states to the subtraction function. Incorporating these contributions, we compute the proton, neutron, and nucleon isovector subtraction functions at photon momentum transfer Q 2 ϵ[0,2] GeV 2 . For the proton subtraction function, we compare our lattice results with chiral perturbation theory prediction at low Q 2 and with the results from the perturbative operator-product expansion at high Q 2 . Finally, using these subtraction functions as input, we determine their contribution to two-photon exchange effects in the Lamb shift and isovector nucleon electromagnetic self-energy.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Degenerate parametric down-conversion facilitated by exciton-plasmon polariton states in a nonlinear plasmonic cavity

Abstract We study the effect of degenerate parametric down-conversion (DPDC) in an ensemble of two-level quantum emitters (QEs) coupled via near-field interactions to a single surface plasmon (SP) mode of a nonlinear plasmonic cavity. For this purpose, we develop a quantum driven-dissipative model capturing non-equilibrium dynamics of the system in which incoherently pumped QEs have transition frequency tuned near the second-harmonic response of the SPs. Considering the strong coupling regime, i.e. the SP-QE interaction rate exceeds system dissipation rates, we find a critical SP-QE coupling attributed to the phase transition between normal and lasing steady states. Examining fluctuations above the system’s steady states, we predict new elementary excitations, namely, the exciton-plasmon polaritons formed by the two-SP quanta and single-exciton states of QEs. The contribution of two-SP quanta results in the linear scaling of the SP-QE interaction rate with the number of QEs,  o , as opposed to the  o -scaling known for the Dicke and Tavis–Cummings models. We further examine how SP-QE interaction scaling affects the polariton dispersions and power spectra in the vicinity of the critical coupling. For this purpose, we compare the calculation results assuming a finite ensemble of QEs and the model thermodynamic limit. The calculated power spectra predict an interplay of coherent photon emission by QEs near the second-harmonic frequency and correlated photon-pair emission at the fundamental frequency by the SPs (i.e. the photonic DPDC effect).

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A method for examining ensemble averaging forms during the transition to turbulence in HED systems for application to RANS models

This paper discusses a strategy to initialize a two-dimensional (2D) Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes model [LANL's Besnard–Harlow–Rauenzahn (BHR) model] in order to describe an unsteady transitional Richtmyer–Meshkov (RM)-induced flow observed in on-going high-energy-density ensemble experiments performed on the OMEGA-EP facility. The experiments consist of a nominal single-mode perturbation (initial amplitude a 0 ≈ 10 and wavelength $λ$ = 100μm) with target-to-target variations in the surface roughness subjected to the RM instability with delayed Rayleigh–Taylor in a heavy-to-light configuration. Our strategy leverages high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) implicit large eddy simulations (ILES) simulations to initialize BHR-relevant parameters and subsequently validate the 2D BHR results against the 3D ILES simulations. A suite of five 3D ILES simulations corresponding to five experimental target profiles is undertaken to generate an ensemble dataset. Using ensemble averages from the 3D simulations to initialize the turbulent kinetic energy in the BHR model ( K 0 ) demonstrates the ability of the model to predict the time evolution of the interface as well as the density-specific-volume covariance, b . To quantify the sensitivity of the BHR results to the choice of K 0 and the initial turbulent length scale, S 0 , we execute a parameter sweep spanning four orders of magnitude for both S 0 and K 0 , generating a parameter space consisting of 26 simulations. The Pearson's correlation coefficient is used as a measure of discrepancy between the 2D BHR and 3D ILES simulations and reveals that the ranges 8≲S 0 ≲20 μm and 10 9 ≲K 0 ≲10 10 cm 2 /s 2 produce predictions that agree best with the 3D ILES results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synthetic light-cone catalogues of modern redshift and weak lensing surveys with abacussummit

ABSTRACT The joint analysis of different cosmological probes, such as galaxy clustering and weak lensing, can potentially yield invaluable insights into the nature of the primordial Universe, dark energy, and dark matter. However, the development of high-fidelity theoretical models is a necessary stepping stone. Here, we present public high-resolution weak lensing maps on the light-cone, generated using the N-body simulation suite abacussummit, and accompanying weak lensing mock catalogues, tuned to the Early Data Release small-scale clustering measurements of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. Available in this release are maps of the cosmic shear, deflection angle, and convergence fields at source redshifts ranging from z = 0.15 to 2.45 as well as cosmic microwave background convergence maps for each of the 25 base-resolution simulations ($L_{\rm box} = 2000\, h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}$ and Npart = 69123) as well as for the two huge simulations ($L_{\rm box} = 7500\, h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}$ and Npart = 86403) at the fiducial abacussummit cosmology. The pixel resolution of each map is 0.21 arcmin, corresponding to a healpix Nside of 16 384. The sky coverage of the base simulations is an octant until z ≈ 0.8 (decreasing to about 1800 deg2 at z ≈ 2.4), whereas the huge simulations offer full-sky coverage until z ≈ 2.2. Mock lensing source catalogues are sampled matching the ensemble properties of the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey, and Hyper Suprime-Cam data sets. The mock catalogues are validated against theoretical predictions for various clustering and lensing statistics, such as correlation multipoles, galaxy–shear, and shear–shear, showing excellent agreement. All products can be downloaded via a Globus endpoint (see Data Availability section).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

VipariNama: RNA viral vectors to rapidly elucidate the relationship between gene expression and phenotype

Synthetic transcription factors have great promise as tools to help elucidate relationships between gene expression and phenotype by allowing tunable alterations of gene expression without genomic alterations of the loci being studied. However, the years-long timescales, high cost, and technical skill associated with plant transformation have limited their use. In this work, we developed a technology called VipariNama (ViN) in which vectors based on the tobacco rattle virus are used to rapidly deploy Cas9-based synthetic transcription factors and reprogram gene expression in planta. We demonstrate that ViN vectors can implement activation or repression of multiple genes systemically and persistently over several weeks in Nicotiana benthamiana, Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). By exploring strategies including RNA scaffolding, viral vector ensembles, and viral engineering, we describe how the flexibility and efficacy of regulation can be improved. We also show how this transcriptional reprogramming can create predictable changes to metabolic phenotypes, such as gibberellin biosynthesis in N. benthamiana and anthocyanin accumulation in Arabidopsis, as well as developmental phenotypes, such as plant size in N. benthamiana, Arabidopsis, and tomato. These results demonstrate how ViN vector-based reprogramming of different aspects of gibberellin signaling can be used to engineer plant size in a range of plant species in a matter of weeks. In summary, ViN accelerates the timeline for generating phenotypes from over a year to just a few weeks, providing an attractive alternative to transgenesis for synthetic transcription factor-enabled hypothesis testing and crop engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-Informed Volume Visualization using Implicit Neural Representation

The increasing adoption of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has led to their application in many challenging scientific visualization tasks. While advanced DNNs offer impressive generalization capabilities, understanding factors such as model prediction quality, robustness, and uncertainty is crucial. These insights can enable domain scientists to make informed decisions about their data. However, DNNs inherently lack ability to estimate prediction uncertainty, necessitating new research to construct robust uncertainty-aware visualization techniques tailored for various visualization tasks. In this work, we propose uncertainty-aware implicit neural representations to model scalar field data sets effectively and comprehensively study the efficacy and benefits of estimated uncertainty information for volume visualization tasks. We evaluate the effectiveness of two principled deep uncertainty estimation techniques: (1) Deep Ensemble and (2) Monte Carlo Dropout (MC-Dropout). These techniques enable uncertainty-informed volume visualization in scalar field data sets. Our extensive exploration across multiple data sets demonstrates that uncertainty-aware models produce informative volume visualization results. Moreover, integrating prediction uncertainty enhances the trustworthiness of our DNN model, making it suitable for robustly analyzing and visualizing real-world scientific volumetric data sets.

Saklani, Shanu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗