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At least 433 records · Page 24

Decarbonizing all-electric communities via carbon-responsive control of behind-the-meter resources

The progression of electrification in the building and transportation sectors brings new opportunities for energy decarbonization. With higher dependence on the grid power supply, the variation of the grid carbon emission intensity can be utilized to reduce the carbon emissions from the two sectors. Existing coordinated control methods for buildings with distributed energy resources (DERs) either consider electricity price or renewable energy generation as the input signal, or adopt optimization in the decision-making, which is difficult to implement in the real-world environment. This paper aims to propose and validate an easy-to-deploy rule-based carbon responsive control framework that facilitates coordination between all-electric buildings and electric vehicles (EVs). The signals of the grid carbon emission intensity and the local photovoltaics (PV) generation are used for shifting the controllable loads. Extensive simulations were conducted using a model of an all-electric mixed-use community in a cold climate to validate the control performance with metrics such as emissions, energy consumption, peak demand, and EV end-of-day state-of-charge (SOC). Our study identifies that 4.5% to 27.1% of annual emission reduction can be achieved with limited impact on energy costs, peak demand, and thermal comfort. Additionally, up to 32.7% of EV emission reduction can be obtained if the EV owners reduce the target SOC by less than 21.2%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Direct conversion technology

The overall objective of the Direct Conversion Technology task is to develop an experimentally verified technology base for promising direct thermal-to-electric energy conversion systems that have potential application for energy conservation in the end-use sectors. This report contains progress of research on the Alkali Metal Thermal-to-Electric Converter (AMTEC), and on the Two-Phase Liquid-Metal MHD Electrical Generator (LMMHD) for the period January 1988 through December 1988. Research on these concepts was initiated during October 1987. In addition, status reviews and assessments are presented for thermomagnetic converter concepts and for thermoelastic converters (Nitinol heat engines). Reports prepared on previous occasions contain discussions on the following other direct conversion concepts: thermoelectric, pyroelectric, thermionic thermophotovoltaic and thermoacoustic; and also, more complete discussions of AMTEC and LMMHD systems. A tabulated summary of the various systems which have been reviewed thus far has been prepared. Some of the important technical research needs are listed and a schematic of each system is shown.

Massier, P. F.↗

Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Novel Framework to Evaluate the Costs and Potential of Bioenergy in Decarbonization of the U.S. Economy

The long-term strategy of the United States targets reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050 and a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2035 (U.S. Department of State and U.S. Executive Office of the President, 2021). Meeting these targets would require considerable changes to the energy system. Some key characteristics of illustrative net-zero energy systems include increased penetration of renewable energy and carbon sources, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-abate sectors, and a greater role for energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen (Davis et al, 2018). Another common feature of such energy systems is the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches (Horowitz et al, 2022). Across all these characteristics of net-zero energy systems, bioenergy and biomass feedstock is anticipated to play an important role. Biomass feedstock serves as a renewable carbon source. This can enable conversion of such feedstock into fuels and energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation. Indeed, the U.S. Government has a target to meet all jet fuel demand by 2050 from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where biofuel pathways are likely to have an important role (EERE, 2020). Bioenergy is also highly versatile with the possibility to convert feedstock into electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat or high-value products, based on biomass type, demand and technology availability (Clarke et al, 2022). Combination of bioenergy with CCS can also nominally deliver CDR (Fuhrman et al, 2023). As such, the share of bioenergy is expected to grow by at least five time across scenarios studied for the long-term strategy of the U.S. between 2020 and 2050 (Horowitz et al, 2022). Notwithstanding the role of bioenergy in the energy systems, its deployment, costs and scalability are influenced by a number of factors. Some of these factors pertain to policy interventions such as imposition of a binding decarbonization target either at an economy-wide level or the sectoral level. Resource availability and type of biomass feedstock also varies considerably across regions. From a technological perspective, the readiness of bioenergy conversion pathways is subject to high variability. This influences the costs of deployment. Moreover, the sourcing of feedstock, grid carbon intensity, and co-product handling approaches all affect the life cycle efficacy of bioenergy. The latter, in turn, is particularly important in determining the extent to which bioenergy with CCS or BECCS can effectively deliver CDR (Fajardy and Mac Dowell, 2017).

air emission↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa's path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States

The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Climate Change and the Environmental Imperative

To mitigate the consequences of climate change, global economies need to rapidly decarbonize by upgrading their energy infrastructure to carbon-free technologies. Nuclear energy has a proven track record on the electric grid and large potential to contribute to sectors beyond just power.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

5.1.6 Demo #6: NanoStitch (NAWAStitch) Multifunctional Composites Trade Validation

The overall objective of the NanoStitch Multifunctional Composites Trade Validation Demonstration project was to determine the value proposition of adding NanoStitch to rapid-cure composite systems for structures used in the expanding sector of advanced air mobility (AAM) and specifically electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The expected value proposition was stronger composite parts, with new multifunctional attributes, that are lower cost to fabricate and maintain. NanoStitch is a new composite innovation where a contiguous vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) forest is located between each ply of a laminate composite resulting in improved mechanical properties as well as other multifunctional properties such as enhanced thermal and electrical conductivity. NanoStitch was originally distributed by N12, later acquired by NAWA Technologies, now called NAWAStitch, and henceforth referred to in this document as NAWAStitch. Two significant evaluations were framed to help meet the overall objective. First, was Task 1 to evaluate the effects that adding NAWAStitch to a rapid cure material system would have on the mechanical and processing properties of the material. Second, was Task 2 to evaluate the workability of adding NAWAStitch to practical flight demonstration articles. From previous research, it was already known that the application of NAWAStitch to a composite structure can enhance the mechanical properties of that structure. However, this project will help the engineering community understand those benefits and the basic structural strength values to apply when incorporating NAWAStitch material into composite structure that utilizes a rapid-cure resin system, which is novel. Testing showed that by adding NAWAStitch to the prepreg, most material properties were improved because the VACNTs strengthened the resin to fiber interface, and the interface itself, between plies. For example compression strength improved by more than 20%, and erosion resistance by more than 50%. The UDRI team identified two flight demonstration articles through discussions with Aurora Flight Sciences (Aurora) and reviewing literature on air mobility and the eVTOL market. The demonstration articles were a thin skin honeycomb panel and a section from an eVTOL propeller blade. The manufacturing and testing trials of the demonstration articles were as follows: • NAWAStitch added no manufacturing complexity or detriment to the article physical qualities, while at the same time added multifunctional properties such as enhanced rain erosion and electrothermal de-icing besides enhanced mechanical properties • VACNTs did not increase or hurt the mechanical properties of the interface between honeycomb core materials and the thin skin face sheet • Demonstrated successful de-icing function in an eVTOL propeller meeting real-world specifications in uniformity and endurance • Multifunctional eVTOL propeller cost analysis showed a cost savings of at least 67 % for a single propeller blade with multifunctional de-icing capability and improved mechanical properties which equates to a potential savings of $10,116 per eVTOL aircraft with six three-bladed propellers Overall, the results of this project can provide additional tools for the composite industry to optimize energy efficiency through faster and stronger composite parts that are lower cost to fabricate and maintain. Additionally, the results of this effort can help US industry like NAWA America set the stage for rapid growth and establishment of a manufacturing facility in Ohio. The project has given NAWA America the basic understanding of how the addition of VACNTs to a composite structure can affect the mechanical properties and hence point them to potential commercial applications. The project has also provided Teijin Carbon US with another potential material application for their rapid cure materials that are manufactured at the Renegade facility in Miamisburg, OH.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Low- and mid-latitude ionospheric electric fields during the January 1984 GISMOS campaign

The electrical coupling between the high-, middle-, and low-latitude ionospheres during January 17-19, 1984 is examined, using interplanetary and high-latitude magnetic field data together with F region plasma drift measurements from the EISCAT, Sondre Stromfjord, Millstone Hill, Saint-Santin, Arecibo, and Jicamarca incoherent scatter radars. The penetration both the zonal and meridional electric field components of high-latitude origin into the low-latitude and the equatorial ionospheres are studied. The observations in the postmidnight sector are used to compare the longitudinal variations of the zonal perturbation electric field with predictions made from global convection models. The results show that the meridional electric field perturbations are considerably more attenuated with decreasing latitude than the zonal fluctuations. It is concluded that variations in the meridional electric field at low latitudes are largely due to dynamo effects.

Fejer, B. G.↗

NASA Glenn's Advanced Subsonic Combustion Rig Supported the Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology Project's Emissions Reduction Test

The Advanced Subsonic Combustor Rig (ASCR) is NASA Glenn Research Center's unique high-pressure, high-temperature combustor facility supporting the emissions reduction element of the Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Project. The facility can simulate combustor inlet test conditions up to a pressure of 900 psig and a temperature of 1200 F (non-vitiated). ASCR completed three sector tests in fiscal year 2003 for General Electric, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce North America. This will provide NASA and U.S. engine manufacturers the information necessary to develop future low-emission combustors and will help them to better understand durability and operability at these high pressures and temperatures.

Beltran, Luis R.↗

Innovative Utility Offerings

As electricity became a critical commodity in modern economies, most countries organized the electric power industry along a similar paradigm, establishing vertically-integrated and regulated utility monopolies with that received regulated returns on capital invested in centralized electrical infrastructure. In today’s rapidly evolving power sector, this business model is being actively redefined as innovative utilities all over the world begin offering more customer-centric products and services at the edge of the distribution system.

case studies↗

Global-Local Policy Search and its Application in Grid-Interactive Building Control

As the buildings sector represents over 70% of the total U.S. electricity consumption, it offers a great amount of untapped demand-side resources to tackle many critical grid-side problems and improve the overall energy system's efficiency. To help make buildings grid-interactive, this paper proposes a global-local policy search method to train a reinforcement learning (RL) based controller which optimizes building operation during both normal hours and demand response (DR) events. Experiments on a simulated five-zone commercial building demonstrate that by adding a local fine-tuning stage to the evolution strategy policy training process, the control costs can be further reduced by 7.55% in unseen testing scenarios. Baseline comparison also indicates that the learned RL controller outperforms a pragmatic linear model predictive controller (MPC), while not requiring intensive online computation.

demand response↗

ARIES: Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems

One of the primary challenges to achieving a clean energy future is closing the gap between ambitions and real-world deployment. To accelerate solutions for a clean energy future, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, developed a visionary research platform called Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES). ARIES takes in the full picture - from community energy needs to technology developers and service providers - rather than evaluating clean energy and technologies in isolation. This innovative approach uncovers opportunities and risks in the spaces where energy technologies and sectors - such as transportation, industry, buildings, and the electric grid - meet.

ARIES↗

Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. We present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multisectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.

Decarbonization, tranportation, Electric vehicle c↗