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At least 433 records · Page 24

Developing socially and economically generative, resilient PV-energy systems for low- and moderate-income communities: Applications for Puerto Rico (Final Technical Report)

The nexus of energy and poverty is one of the most significant long-term challenges facing the energy and electricity sectors, with negative feedback loops between energy-related costs, risks, and insecurities, on the one hand, and diverse other social and economic insecurities, on the other, helping to undermine health, wellbeing, and resilience in low- and moderate-income communities around the US and the world (Biswas et al. 2022). The transition of energy systems to clean energy alternatives offers a potential opportunity to redesign future energy arrangements in ways that, instead, create beneficial social value for communities, reverses the energy-poverty nexus, and enhances community wellbeing (Biswas et al. 2020; Miller et al. 2018). The promise of clean energy transitions to address the energy-poverty nexus is especially significant when designed using principles of just energy transitions. To leverage just clean energy transitions to accomplish a reversal of the energy-poverty nexus requires improvement in three capabilities: (1) Understanding and mapping the community-scale dynamics and variability of the energy-poverty nexus, which vary considerably from community to community; (2) Evaluating the technical, social, and economic potential for different clean energy system designs to deliver social value to specific communities; and (3) Working collaboratively with communities to imagine and design clean energy systems solutions that meet their needs, fit their capabilities and contexts, and deliver multiple forms of community-desired social value/benefits that help reverse key facets of the energy-poverty nexus. This project developed a portfolio of novel tools, methodological approaches, and collaborative partnerships with four communities in Puerto Rico that further the objective of building these three capabilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Thermal Energy Storage Using Solid Particles for Long-Duration Energy Storage

The rapid growth of renewable energy increases the importance of economically firming the electricity supply from variable solar photovoltaic- and wind-power generators. Energy storage will be the key to manage variability and to bridge the generation gap over time scales of hours or days for high renewable grid integration. The integration of renewable power and storage of excess electricity has several significant and positive impacts including: 1) expanding the renewable energy portion of total electricity generation, 2) improving the peak-load response, and 3) coordinating the electricity supply and demand over the grid. Long-duration energy storage can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Several energy storage methods are deployed or under development, including mechanical, chemical or electrochemical, and thermal energy storage (TES). Comparing their economic potential for different scales and applications helps identify suitable technology to support high renewable grid integration. Despite the progress of TES technologies developed and deployed with concentrating solar power (CSP) systems, TES has been undervalued for its potential role in electric energy storage. This paper introduces TES methods applicable to grid energy storage and particularly focuses on solid-particle-based TES to serve the purpose of long-duration energy storage (LDES). The objective of this paper is to present a standalone particle-based TES system for electric storage and to show the potential of TES systems for LDES applications over other energy storage methods such as batteries, compressed-air energy storage, or pumped-storage hydropower.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Characterization of Coal Refuse Sites in West Virginia: Stream Loss, Volume Estimation, and Land Cover Analysis for Restoration Feasibility

Coal refuse disposal across Appalachia has resulted in widespread environmental degradation, including stream burial, landscape destabilization, and long-term hydrologic impacts. This study provides a GIS-based spatial characterization of 623 coal refuse sites in West Virginia, evaluating their potential for ecological and economic restoration. Stream loss was quantified through digitization of historic topographic maps, revealing over 194,500 meters of historically present streams lost, with 105,000 meters directly buried beneath refuse piles. Volume estimation using empirical Bayesian kriging and modern LiDAR surfaces indicated approximately 1.96 billion cubic meters of deposited refuse. Land cover analysis based on NAIP-derived classification showed that 48% of the total site area was forested, while 15% remained barren. These results highlight not only the environmental footprint of legacy refuse deposits but also their potential for restoration through stream daylighting and beneficial reuse. Emerging opportunities, including rare earth element recovery and mitigation banking, may offer economic incentives to facilitate reclamation. This work establishes a spatial framework to prioritize refuse sites for restoration, balancing ecological uplift with feasible material management strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Group Task Force on Satellite Rescue and Repair

The Group Task Force was chartered by the Administrator of NASA to recommend 'a policy outlining the criteria, the design standards, and the pricing model to guide NASA in assessing the responsibilities for government and nongovernment Satellite Rescue and Repair Missions.' Criteria for accepting such missions, risks, and benefits to all sectors of our economy involved in satellite services, adequacy of planning and training, and the impact on NASA's primary mission were reviewed. The Group began by asking a more fundamental question; is satellite rescue and repair a logical element of NASA's mission? Factors considered were: (1) the probability of rescue or repair opportunities arising; (2) the economic justification for such attempts; (3) the benefits to NASA, both from such ad hoc learning experiences in space operations and the impact on the public perception of NASA; (4) the effect of such unanticipated missions on NASA's scheduled activities; (5) any potential effect on NASA's technical capability to work in space; and (6) any potential effect on U.S. economic competitiveness.

Source record↗

Data-Driven Unit Commitment Refinement - a Scalable Approach for Complex Modern Power Grids

Integration of renewable generation, which is often intermittent and decentralized, substantially increases the stochasticity and complexity of power grid operations. Future power systems planning will require significant computational capability to evaluate balance between demand and supply under varying conditions, both temporally and spatially. The standard approach for generation unit commitment is to use mixed-integer linear programming to find the optimal generation schedule considering ramping and generator constraints. In the future grid this poses computational scalability challenges because generation and demand are not known with certainty due to stochasticity in weather and complexity of the grid. To address this challenge, we present a data-driven unit commitment approach that can efficiently include stochastic weather impacts and contingency considerations to improve unit commitment. Our approach uses graph-based data analytics techniques on solutions to the security constrained (and possibly stochastic) economic dispatch problem to identify potential improvements to a given unit commitment. Recent breakthroughs in fully-parallel stochastic economic dispatch software allow this approach to be scalably deployed. Simulations on synthetic South Carolina and Texas grids show this method can improve grid reliability with security constraints over a set of contingencies, while also meaningfully lowering total generation cost.

Holt, Timothy↗

Digital Twin Framework for the Resilient Remote Monitoring and Operation of Nuclear Microreactors

The nuclear industry is developing new advanced reactor technologies, and many companies are conceptualizing designs for microreactors, a class of nuclear reactor with a sub-20 MWth power output designed to be factory fabricated, easily transportable, and simple to control. Microreactors offer promising solutions to several use cases for which large-scale plants would not be suitable, and conventional power generation means, notably diesel electric generators, are expensive and logistically difficult. Many of the potential use cases are in isolated locations such as arctic communities, remote mines, and military installations. Therefore, the cost of microreactor deployment and traditional onsite operations pose a challenge that requires new technical solutions to address. One solution that has the potential to greatly improve economics is to operate and monitor microreactors remotely from a centralized location. Remote monitoring and operation are novel concepts to the nuclear industry and will greatly alter the tasks and responsibilities associated with current commercial nuclear power plant operators. As such, it is important to perform research on potential technological solutions and the impacts those solutions have on operations with end-goal of defining a safe and effective remote concept of operations. This paper proposes a framework for resilient remote operation of microreactors enabled by a novel digital twin implementation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Carbon Mitigation Potential of Heat Pump Integrated with Thermal Storage for Grid-Interactive Residential Buildings

Residential buildings’ heating and cooling loads are associated with significant carbon emissions and peak electricity demand. Phase change material (PCM) based thermal energy storage (TES) can be used for space heating and cooling by embedding into the heat pump equipment. Past work on TES integrated with heat pumps (HP) has demonstrated significant load shifting and economic benefits. However, the potential for TES to reduce carbon emissions has not been widely explored. This study evaluates carbon mitigation potential of an ice-based TES coupled to HP (HP-TES) based on a simple rule-based control strategy accounting for electric grid emissions data. A vapor compression HP model using Engineering Equation Solver (EES). The modeled HP-TES system for single-family residential building demonstrates decreased carbon emissions with reduced peak utility cost.

Sultan, Sara↗

Conversion of bioprocess ethanol to industrial chemical products - Applications of process models for energy-economic assessments

An assessment approach for accurate evaluation of bioprocesses for large-scale production of industrial chemicals is presented. Detailed energy-economic assessments of a potential esterification process were performed, where ethanol vapor in the presence of water from a bioreactor is catalytically converted to ethyl acetate. Results show that such processes are likely to become more competitive as the cost of substrates decreases relative to petrolium costs. A commercial ASPEN process simulation provided a reasonably consistent comparison with energy economics calculated using JPL developed software. Detailed evaluations of the sensitivity of production cost to material costs and annual production rates are discussed.

Rohatgi, Naresh K.↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Research Needs and Activities

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have benefitted the safe operation of the U.S. reactor fleet over many decades. Risk insights from these PRAs have provided information from many different perspectives, from what is most important to maintain at a facility to a better understanding of how to address new information regarding safety issues. The methods and tools that have supported the creation and enhancement of PRA models were established through multiple decades of research, from the 1970s starting with the WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study through comprehensive plant-specific models in use today. Because PRA models are being used to support such a diverse array of plant decisions, they are now being applied to analyze an increasing number and diverse set of aspects of the plant, which are well beyond the initial efforts envisioned in the 1970s. These demands on PRA methods and tools have led to challenges in terms of further expansion of the use of PRA and raised the potential for future research into how to address these challenges to ensure continued nuclear safety. In addition to the PRA needs, the domain of computer science has led to advances in computational approaches that may serve to help nuclear power plant PRA applications. These newer technologies have great potential to improve the effectiveness and economics of PRA and are being considered for exploration of potential benefits to the PRA and nuclear-power communities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Wettability Alteration with Weak Acid-Assisted Surfactant Flood

Oil-wetness and heterogeneity are two key reasons for low oil recovery by waterflooding in carbonate reservoirs. Surfactants have been effective in altering the oil-wet matrix to a more water-wet condition and initiating spontaneous imbibition. Because it takes time for the surfactant to alter wettability, oil recovery from the tight matrix is slow and sometimes not economically feasible. Acids have the potential of dissolving minerals, which may alter wettability. In this study, the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) performance of an acid-assisted surfactant solution, a novel technique, was evaluated for low-temperature applications. A set of acids and their acetates were tested. Bulk rock-acid reaction, wettability alteration (WA) tests, and spontaneous imbibition measurements were conducted at reservoir temperature (35°C) to identify effective candidates. Coreflood tests were then performed to evaluate the selected acid-surfactant formulations. Before and after a coreflood test, the core was scanned using micro-computed tomography (CT) to investigate pore structure alteration. Bulk reaction measurements showed that weak acids, especially acetic acid (AA), have the desired low reaction rates at 35°C. WA tests showed that AA can remove the crude oil off the rock surface and alter wettability through mineral dissolution. The surfactant can reduce contact angles from 160° to 58°; adding acid into the surfactant can further reduce it to 52°. Spontaneous imbibition experiments showed the synergy between the acid and the surfactant; the AA-surfactant solution had the highest oil recovery (62.6%) among acid-surfactant formulations. The acid improves the WA efficiency by the surfactant through surface mineral dissolution and lower ζ-potential. The imbibition transports the acid-surfactant solutions into the matrix, which minimizes face dissolution. Coreflood tests show that the AA-surfactant flood can increase the oil recovery rate and recover about 8% more oil compared to the surfactant flood. Micro-CT showed that a few mineral particles were transported along the core and partially plugged pore throats, which reduced permeability and diverted flow leading to improved oil recovery. Here, the transport of the acid in reservoirs and the potential plugging issues have to be carefully evaluated in future studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Grid Planning Impacts of Hydropower Growth and Decline

Hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) have a complex and uncertain future in the U.S. electricity system. On one hand, existing assets have the potential for an expanded role in integrating variable renewable energy while new deployment, particularly of PSH, can help meet growing needs for grid flexibility and improved reliability. On the other hand, challenging environmental and cost considerations could limit the extent of new investments in hydropower and PSH capacity and flexibility. This technical presentation demonstrates the use of a high-fidelity capacity expansion model of the U.S. electric grid (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System) to understand the impacts of alternative futures for the hydropower and PSH fleet, including scenarios of both growth and decline. Growth scenarios include new PSH deployment or improved hydropower flexibility, while scenarios of decline reduce the capacity or energy production potential of hydropower and PSH. Economic, environmental, and performance outcomes of the grid are compared across these scenarios to reveal the potential contributions of hydropower and PSH in the U.S. electric sector over the next several decades, focusing on changes to the grid technology mix, electric sector costs, electricity prices, and air emissions. This broad scenario approach demonstrates how flexible hydropower and PSH can help reduce air emissions and cost by complementing variable renewables, but the opposite can occur with reduced hydropower availability, particularly in the next decade. It is important to consider a wide range of scenarios and metrics to gain a national and regional understanding of hydropower's future in the United States.

capacity expansion↗

An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

Kneafsey, J. T.↗

Techno-Economic Impact of Diesel Fuel, Labor, and Interest Rates on Bulk-Format and Round Bale Logistics Expenses for Switchgrass

Highlights System-wide sensitivity of bulk-format and round bale logistics responded to different degrees of expense inputs. Biomass size-reduction expenses for bulk-format were consistently less than round-bale chopping. Stack/reclaim operations with high-density-capacity equipment for bulk-format were the highest expenses. Clean-sheet design of stacker/reclaimer and self-compacting bulk trailer may significantly reduce expenses. Abstract . Deterministic cost analyses were conducted for a harvest, storage, preprocessing, and supply system providing 371,870 dry Mg (dMg) year-1 of milled switchgrass (SG) to a biorefinery from 21,929 ha of production fields within 72 km of the biorefinery. Varied input costs of diesel fuel, labor, and interest rate were input into a highly detailed cost analysis for bulk-format and baseline round bale logistics. These operational input factors, potentially reflecting an evolving economic climate or paradigm shift, were examined to provide insight into the cost to deliver preprocessed biomass feedstock for centralized commercial-scale conversions. Total annual costs per dry unit of SG were determined for all combinations of diesel fuel prices of $0.53 L-1, $0.92 L-1, and $1.32 L-1; total labor costs of $20.00 h-1, $28.85 h-1, and $40.00 h-1 singly and uniformly applied across all labor inputs; and three representative interest rates of 6%, 8%, and 12%. Increases in total cost most depended on increases in diesel fuel cost, followed by labor rate, and finally interest rate. Increases in fuel costs from $0.53 L-1 to $1.32 L-1 yielded a total cost increase of about $11.56 dMg-1 and $13.36 dMg-1 for bulk-format and round bale logistics, respectively, for all combinations of labor and interest rates. The overall increase in labor rate ($20.00 h-1 to $40.85 h-1) resulted in increased total costs of about $10.32 dMg-1 for bulk-format logistics and $9.94 dMg-1 for round bale logistics for all fuel and interest rates. The overall increase in interest rate (6% to 12%) resulted in increased total costs of about $6.72 dMg-1 for bulk-format logistics and $4.21 dMg-1 for round bale logistics for all fuel and labor rates. Increases in total costs for combined increases in fuel cost, labor rate, and interest rate were $28.60 dMg-1 and $27.48 dMg-1, yielding maximum total costs of $87.87 dMg-1 and $86.53 dMg-1 for bulk-format and round bale logistics, respectively. Costs were determined for existing equipment systems, including novel use of waste compaction and ejector semi-trailers. The highest potential for cost reductions may require clean-sheet equipment designs specifically tailored for SG, such as forage harvesters that direct-cut standing SG, mobilized stacker-reclaimer technology to not inhibit stack-area footprint, self-compacting ejector trailer technology, and bale grinding technology incorporating controlled mass feeding and shear failure elements. Keywords: Bales, Bioenergy, Bulk-format, Densification, Field chop, Logistics, Transportation

Agriculture↗

Central Atlantic regional ecological test site: A prototype regional environmental information system

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of photomorphic regions from an uncontrolled ERTS-1 mosaic of CARETS to land use areas on a map published in the National Atlas revealed close correlations in non-urban regions. Such regional scale analysis of ERTS-1 data has the potential for providing an economical sampling strategy for selecting sites for more detailed field measurements if other environmental variables can be correlated with patterns on ERTS-1 imagery. ERTS-1 imagery has also revealed for the first time the appearance of CARETS during the winter months. Investigators have identified extensive areas of conifers, which have previously been indistinguishable from deciduous vegetation. Imagery has also shown very clearly the extent of snow cover at a particular time over the region. The evaluation of ERTS-1 imagery used for the land use mapping of the shore zone of CARETS, has shown that the presence or absence of elements of an hierarchal system of shoreline landforms can help identify areas of potential rapid change. Changes in land use class distributions on the Barrier Islands signify the environmental response to natural and man-caused processes. Both environmental vulnerability and sensitivity can be estimated from the repetitive ERTS-1 coverage of long reaches of the CARETS coast. Results indicate potential applications to land use planning, management, and regional environmental quality analysis.

Alexander, R. H.↗

The effect of price-based demand response on carbon emissions in European electricity markets: The importance of adequate carbon prices

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors (MEFs), which compared to grid mix emission factors (XEFs), are cumbersome to calculate due to the complex characteristics of national electricity markets. This study, therefore, proposes two merit order-based methods to approximate hourly MEFs and applies them to readily available datasets from 20 European countries for the years 2017–2019. Based on the calculated electricity prices, standardized daily load shifts were simulated which indicated that carbon emissions increased for 8 of the 20 countries and by 2.1% on average. Thus, under specific circumstances, PBDR leads to carbon emissions increases, mainly due to the economic advantage fuel sources such as lignite and coal have in the merit order. MEF-based load shifts reduced the mean resulting carbon emissions by 35%, albeit with 56% lower monetary cost savings compared to price-based load shifts. Finally, by repeating the load shift simulations for different carbon price levels, the impact of the carbon price on the resulting carbon emissions was analyzed. The Spearman correlation coefficient between carbon intensity and marginal cost along the German merit order substantially increased with increasing carbon price. The coefficients were -0.13 for the 2019 carbon price of 24.9 €/t, 0 for 42.6 €/t, and 0.4 for 100.0 €/t. Therefore, with adequate carbon prices, PBDR can be an effective tool for both economical and environmental improvement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Production of chitosan-based composite film reinforced with lignin-rich lignocellulose nanofibers from rice husk

Lignocellulosic nanofibers (LCNFs), implying lignin-containing cellulose fibers, maintain the properties of both lignin and cellulose, which are hydrophobic and hydrophilic, respectively. The presence of hydrophobic lignin in LCNFs is expected to be an economical and attractive option that can improve the thermal and mechanical properties of polymers. Thus, this study was conducted to produce lignin-rich LCNFs from sugar-rich waste obtained from rice husks after acidic pretreatment. The LCNFs were produced from the lignin-rich solid fractions obtained after pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis, which were then incorporated as an additive into a chitosan-based film. The variations in lignin content in the range of approximately 50.6%-66.8% in differently obtained LCNFs gave significantly different optical strengths and mechanical properties. These controllable processes may allow for customized film formation. Additionally, the glucose-rich liquid fractions obtained after pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis were used as a substrate for ethanol fermentation to achieve total utilization of rice husk biomass waste. In conclusion, the lignin-rich biomass fraction holds promise as a suitable material for chitosan-LCNF film and has the potential to increase the economic feasibility of the biomaterial industry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

In situ characterization of the biological performance of a Francis turbine retrofitted with a modular guide vane

There are two strategies to lower overall project costs to an extent that will make many potential sustainable hydropower sites economically viable: (1) design standardized/modular components; (2) use advanced tools to reduce environmental evaluation costs. In this study an autonomous sensor device (Sensor Fish) was used to study a Francis turbine retrofitted with a modular guide vane. The median nadir pressures measured were 74.7, 66.6, and 56.6 kPaA for 90-, 190-, and 380-kW operating conditions respectively. These nadir pressures were compared to other Francis turbines studied using Sensor Fish and were found to be within the same range. The proportion of Sensor Fish releases with severe acceleration events (acceleration = 95G) was also investigated. The proportion ranged from 73 to 80% (runner region), 50 to 64% (guide vane region), and 9 to 28% (draft tube region), which was within the range of the other turbines used for comparison. The Sensor Fish testing that was conducted at Hurley Dam demonstrates that the modular guide vane that was retrofitted to the existing Francis turbine is potentially a suitable replacement that can provide biological performance similar to the guide vane used with other existing Francis turbines, but with the benefit of reduced fabrication costs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗