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Observations of Small Debris from the Cosmos 1408 Anti-Satellite Test using the HUSIR and Goldstone Radars

On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted a direct-ascent, anti-satellite (ASAT) test against its Cosmos 1408 satellite, which had been in orbit since 1982. The test produced at least 1500 fragments trackable by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN). This is a significant event because the resulting cloud has the potential to endanger the International Space Station and other satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO).For almost 30 years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has been using the Haystack Ultrawideband Imaging Radar (HUSIR), located in Tyngsborough, Massachusetts and operated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory, to perform statistical measurements of debris in LEO too small to be tracked by the SSN, nominally down to 5.5 mm at 1000 km altitude. The ODPO also utilizes the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar (Goldstone), located near Barstow, California and operated by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to characterize the small debris environment in LEO down to approximately 3 mm at 1000 km altitude. To characterize the small debris component of the Cosmos 1408 ASAT test, a series of observation campaigns were conducted with the HUSIR and Goldstone radars. This paper discusses the observation planning, including beam overlap analysis required for the Goldstone’s bistatic operation, using a model of the debris cloud produced using the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model. A description of the radars and the data processing techniques used to analyze the data are also discussed. Finally, results of the measurement campaigns including cumulative flux versus size, altitude, and inclination are presented.

James Murray↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repairs Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

Modeling of Sound Transmission through Shell Structures with Turbulent Boundary Layer Excitation

The turbulent boundary layer (TBL) pressure field is an important source of cabin noise during cruise of high subsonic and supersonic commercial aircraft. The broadband character of this excitation field results in an interior noise spectrum that dominates the overall sound pressure level (SPL) and speech interference metrics in the forward and midcabins of many aircraft. In the authors' previous study, sound transmission through an aircraft fuselage, modeled by two concentric cylindrical sandwich shells and excited by a TBL statistical model was investigated analytically. An assessment of point and global structural vibration levels and resulting interior noise levels was obtained for different TBL models, flight conditions and fuselage structural designs. However, due to the complication of the shell structure, the important noise transmission mechanisms were difficult to discern. Previous experience has demonstrated that a fundamental understanding of the range of modes (or wavenumbers) generated by the TBL source both in the structure and the acoustic cavity is key to the development of both active and passive control technologies. In an initial effort to provide this insight, the objective of this paper is to develop an analytical model of sound transmission through a simple unstiffened cylindrical aluminum shell excited by a TBL pressure field. The description of the turbulent pressure field is based on the Corcos formulation for the cross-spectral density (CSD) of the pressure fluctuations. The coupled shell and interior and exterior acoustic equations are solved for the structural displacement and the interior acoustic response using a Galerkin approach to obtain analytical solutions. Specifically, this study compares the real part of the normalized CSD of the TBL excitation field, the structural displacement and the interior acoustic field. Further the modal compositions of the structural and cavity response are examined and some inference of the dominant mechanism of noise transmission is made.

Tang, Yvette Y.↗

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) v1.1: An Open-Source Ground-Based Lidar and Radar Instrument Simulator and Subcolumn Generator for Large-Scale Models

Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

Earth Model Column Collaboratory↗

Shockwave/Boundary-Layer Interaction Studies Performed in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel

This paper highlights results from a collaborative study performed by The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) and NASA Langley Research Center on the Shockwave/Boundary-Layer Interaction (SWBLI) generated by a cylindrical protuberance on a flat plate in a Mach 6 flow. The study was performed in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center and consisted of two separate entries. In the first entry, simultaneous high-speed schlieren and high-speed pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) imaging – which was performed for the first time in the 20-Inch Mach 6 facility at NASA Langley – were performed as well as simultaneous high-speed schlieren and oil-flow imaging. In the second entry, the model configuration was modified to increase the size of the interaction region. High-speed schlieren and infrared thermography (IR) surface imaging were performed in this second entry. The goal of these tests was to characterize the SBLI in the presence of a laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layer using high-speed optical imaging techniques. AoA = sting angle-of-attack (°) dcylinder = cylinder diameter (mm) dtrip = cylindrical tripping element diameter (mm) Δshock = shock stand-off distance (mm) hcylinder = cylinder height (mm) htrip = cylindrical tripping element height (mm) HSS = high-speed schlieren M∞ = freestream Mach number PSP = pressure-sensitive paint Re∞ = freestream unit Reynolds number (m-1) SWBLI = shockwave/boundary-layer interaction θplate = model plate angle (°) Introduction his paper highlights two experimental entries performed in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Blowdown Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center in collaboration with The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI). The purpose of these entries was to characterize the dynamic shockwave/boundary-layer interaction (SWBLI) between a vertical cylinder on a flat plate and laminar, transitional (XSWBLI), and turbulent (SWTBLI) boundary layers with a freestream Mach number of 6 using non-intrusive optical diagnostics. Experiments performed by Murphree et al.1,2 were among the first to specifically characterize XSWBLI induced by a vertical cylinder on a flat plate geometry using several optical measurement techniques. Recent optical studies of XSWBLI phenomenon have been performed by UTSI at Mach 2 in their low-enthalpy blow wind tunnel3-8 and by Texas A&M University and UTSI at Mach numbers of 6 and 7 in their Adjustable Contour Expansion wind tunnel.9 The experiments described in this paper were intended to complement previous studies by expanding the freestream unit Reynolds number range, Re∞, over which the XSWBLI phenomena has been observed. Additionally these experiments, made possible under NASA’s new facility funding model under the Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project, promoted collaboration between university and NASA researchers. The initial entry in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley occurred in December of 2016. Originally, testing was to occur in November of 2016 in the 31-Inch Mach 10 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley. This facility was chosen so that the XSWBLI phenomenon could be observed at much higher Mach numbers than had previously been attempted in ground test experiments. The model selected for this experiment, a 10° half-angle wedge with a sharp leading edge (described in detail in section II.B), had previously been used by Danehy et al. [10] for boundary layer transition studies using the nitric oxide planar laser-induced fluorescence (NO PLIF) flow visualization technique. In that work, it was determined that transition could be induced downstream of a single htrip = 1-mm tall, dtrip = 4-mm diameter cylindrical tripping element and that the streamwise location of the transition could be changed for a single Re∞ by changing the model angle-of-attack (AoA) (see Fig. A3 in Ref. [10] for more details). Based on the findings of that work, a decision was made to use the wedge model with the cylindrical tripping element to trip the boundary layer flow ahead of a cylindrical protuberance in order to achieve a XSWBLI. Unfortunately, the 31-Inch Mach 10 facility had been taken offline for repairs in October of 2016 and a decision was made to move the test to the 20-Inch Mach 6 facility. Since the behavior of the boundary layer with the chosen model configuration had not been studied before in that facility and the available test time was limited, the entry was considered to be exploratory and was used to collect spatially-resolved and time-resolved flow and surface visualization data that would be used to inform a second entry. Test techniques included simultaneous high-speed schlieren (HSS) captured at 160 kHz and high-speed pressure sensitive paint captured at 10 kHz as well as oil flow visualization, captured at 750 Hz. The second entry in the 20-Inch Mach 6 facility occurred in June and July of 2017. In this follow-on test, modifications to the wind tunnel model were made based on observations made during the first entry and included removing the cylindrical tripping element, increasing the size of the cylinder used to induce the SWBLI to increase the size of the interaction while simultaneously improving spatial resolution, and using a swept ramp array, similar to that described in Ref. [11], to trip the flow to turbulence. Simultaneous HSS (captured at 140 kHz, 100 kHz, and 40 kHz) and conventional IR thermography (captured at 30 Hz) imaging were performed simultaneously in this follow-on entry. This paper is intended to serve as a summary of the work performed during these two entries, to detail lessons learned from each entry, and to highlight some of the datasets acquired. Details on the experimental setup, model configuration, and techniques used are provided. Papers providing a more rigorous analysis of data acquired during the second entry, including statistical, spectral, and modal decomposition methods, can be found in Refs. [12,13]. An entry examining XSWBLI in the 31-Inch Mach 10 Blowdown Wind Tunnel facility is currently planned for mid-to-late calendar year 2019, pending the success of facility repairs. The work performed and described in this paper and the upcoming entry in the 31-Inch Mach 10 facility at NASA Langley have been made possible by NASA’s new facility funding model under the Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project. Wind Tunnel Facility All experiments discussed in this paper were performed in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. Specific details pertaining to this facility can be found in Refs. [14,15], with only a brief description of the facility provided here. For both entries, the nominal freestream unit Reynolds number was varied between 1.8×106 m-1 (0.5×106 ft-1) and 26.3×106 m-1 (8×106 ft-1). The nominal stagnation pressure was varied between 0.21 MPa and 3.33 MPa and the nominal stagnation temperature was varied between 480 K and 520 K to achieve the desired Re∞ condition. For all runs, the nominal freestream Mach number was 6. The nearly square test section is 520.7-mm (20.5-inches) wide by 508-mm (20-inches) high. Two 431.8-mm (17-inch) diameter windows made of Corning 7940, Grade 5F schlieren-quality glass serve as the side walls of the tunnel and provide optical access for the high-speed schlieren measurements. A rectangular window made of the same material as the side windows served as the top wall of the test section and provided optical access for the high-speed PSP and oil flow measurements. For the second entry, this top window was replaced with a Zinc Selenide (ZnSe) window with an anti-reflection coating capable of passing IR wavelengths between 8μm and 12μm with greater than 98% transmittance. The model was sting supported by a strut attached to a hydraulic system that allows for the model pitch angle to be adjusted between -5° to +55°. For the first entry, an initial pitch/pause sweep of the model AoA was performed to observe the resulting SWBLI. Ultimately, however, the sting pitch angle for this entry was fixed at +10.0° so that the angle of the top surface of the wedge relative to the streamwise axis of the tunnel (referred to herein as the plate angle, θplate), was θplate = 0°. For the second entry, θplate = 0° and θplate = -13.25° were initially tested with the swept ramp array (discussed in the following section) to determine which orientation produced conditions most favorable for XSWBLI to occur based on the heating signatures observed over the top surface of the model in the IR thermography images. Based on these initial tests, θplate = -13.25° was set for the remainder of the runs in the second entry. For both entries, any model changes were performed in a housing located beneath the closed test section. Prior to performing a run of the tunnel, the housing was sealed and the tunnel started. Once the appropriate freestream conditions were achieved, the model was injected into the test section using a hydraulic injection system. B. Model Geometry For all runs, a 10° half-angle (20° full-angle) wedge model with a sharp leading edge was used. The model is described in detail in Refs. [10,16]. The top surface of the sharp leading edge of the model extended 47.8 mm from its upstream-most edge to a junction with the upstream edge of a stainless steel top plate that then extended an (a) (c) (b) Fig. 1 (a) Schematic of top surface of wedge model with gas seeding insert, (b) perspective view of the model in the 20-Inch Mach 6 tunnel with centerline pressure orifices on sharp leading edge, and (c) a perspective view of the model with stainless steel (top) and SLA middle insert (bottom) during the first entry. Flow occurs from left to right.

Bathel, Brett F.↗

An analysis of maximum vertical gusts recorded at NASA's 150-meter ground winds tower facility at Kennedy Space Center, Florida

A statistical summary is presented of vertical wind speed data recorded at NASA's 150-Meter Ground Winds Tower Facility on Merritt Island, Kennedy Space Center, Florida. One year of continuous around-the-clock vertical wind speed measurements processed by the Automatic Data Acquisition System (ADAS) is classified as a function of tower level (10, 18, 60, and 150 meters) and period of reference day, month, season: winter (October through March) and summer (April through September), and annual. Intensity, frequency, time of occurrence, prevailing conditions, etc., of the daily maximum vertical gusts (i.e., updraft and downdraft) are determined. The results are compared with the vertical gusts associated with the daily maximum horizontal gust. The intent of this summarization of vertical wind speed data is to provide a general description of wind flow in the lower 150 meters of the atmosphere for the identification of hazards involved in wind shear encounters relative to ascent and descent of the Space Shuttle and conventional aircraft.

Alexander, M. B.↗

Landmark Detection in Orbital Images Using Salience Histograms

NASA's planetary missions have collected, and continue to collect, massive volumes of orbital imagery. The volume is such that it is difficult to manually review all of the data and determine its significance. As a result, images are indexed and searchable by location and date but generally not by their content. A new automated method analyzes images and identifies "landmarks," or visually salient features such as gullies, craters, dust devil tracks, and the like. This technique uses a statistical measure of salience derived from information theory, so it is not associated with any specific landmark type. It identifies regions that are unusual or that stand out from their surroundings, so the resulting landmarks are context-sensitive areas that can be used to recognize the same area when it is encountered again. A machine learning classifier is used to identify the type of each discovered landmark. Using a specified window size, an intensity histogram is computed for each such window within the larger image (sliding the window across the image). Next, a salience map is computed that specifies, for each pixel, the salience of the window centered at that pixel. The salience map is thresholded to identify landmark contours (polygons) using the upper quartile of salience values. Descriptive attributes are extracted for each landmark polygon: size, perimeter, mean intensity, standard deviation of intensity, and shape features derived from an ellipse fit.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

A Data Mining Project to Identify Cardiovascular Related Factors That May Contribute to Changes in Visual Acuity Within the US Astronaut Corps

Many of the cardiovascular-related adaptations that occur in the microgravity environment are due, in part, to a well-characterized cephalad-fluid shift that is evidenced by facial edema and decreased lower limb circumference. It is believed that most of these alterations occur as a compensatory response necessary to maintain a "normal" blood pressure and cardiac output while in space. However, data from both flight and analog research suggest that in some instances these microgravity-induced alterations may contribute to cardiovascular-related pathologies. Most concerning is the potential relation between the vision disturbances experienced by some long duration crewmembers and changes in cerebral blood flow and intra-ocular pressure. The purpose of this project was to identify cardiovascular measures that may potentially distinguish individuals at risk for visual disturbances after long duration space flight. Toward this goal, we constructed a dataset from Medical Operation tilt/stand test evaluations pre- (days L-15-L-5) and immediate post-flight (day R+0) on 20 (3 females, 17 males). We restricted our evaluation to only crewmembers who participated in both shuttle and space station missions. Data analysis was performed using both descriptive and analytical methods (Stata 11.2, College Station, TX) and are presented as means +/- 95% CI. Crewmembers averaged 5207 (3447 - 8934) flight hours across both long (MIR-23 through Expedition16) and short (STS-27 through STS-101) duration missions between 1988 and 2008. The mean age of the crew at the time of their most recent shuttle flight was 41 (34-44) compared to 47 (40-54) years during their time on station. In order to focus our analysis (we did not have codes to separate out subjects by symptomotology) , we performed a visual inspection of each cardiovascular measures captured during testing and plotted them against stand time, pre- to post-flight, and between mission duration. It was found that pulse pressure most clearly differentiated the two mission types. Statistical analysis confirmed that pulse pressure was significantly higher before [45.6; (42.1 to 49.1)] and after [50.7; (46.9 to 54.6)] time on station compared with their most recent shuttle flight [31.6 (27.8 to 35.4), and 32.2 (28.3 to 36.0) respectively] even after correcting differences in age and cumulative number of mission hours. Without knowing the identity of which long duration crewmembers demonstrated visual changes, we were limited to examining whether certain crew regulate components of pulse pressure, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, differently due to microgravity exposure. To that end, we stratified crew into tertiles based on either their pre-flight measure of systolic or diastolic blood pressure. Those crew in the highest tertile for both systolic (lower tertile (n=8; 103-111), middle tertile (n=7; 113-121), and upper tertile (n=5; 125-136) and diastolic blood pressure (lower tertile (n=8; 58-64), middle tertile (n=7; 67-73), and upper tertile (n=5; 75-81) demonstrated less variability in pulse pressure between R+0 and L-10 (Figure 2). Interestingly, those crewmembers with the highest resting systolic blood pressure demonstrated either no change or in some instances an increase in total peripheral resistance, where those in the lower tertiles had lower values of total peripheral resistance compared to pre-flight levels. In this study, it was found that crewmembers in the highest tertile for both systolic and diastolic blood pressure demonstrated less variability in pulse pressure and that the decrease in variability was due in part to lower levels of compliance as indicated by similar or higher levels of total peripheral resistance after compared with before flight levels. Whether there is a relation between blood pressure regulation and total peripheral resistance in crew presenting with negative changes in visual acuity remains unknown.

Westby, Christian M.↗

What determines the stellar mass functions in globular clusters?

We analyze the dependence of stellar mass function slopes for a sample of 17 globular clusters on a variety of cluster parameters. The principal novelty of our approach is the use of appropriate multivariate statistical methods to disentangle the complex situation which is present in this problem: the slopes depend simultaneously on more than one variable, and many cluster parameters are mutually correlated. We find that the mass function slopes in the range M/M(solar) = 0.5-0.8 are largely determined by the position in the Galaxy and to a lesser extent by the cluster metallicity. Clusters closer to the Galactic center or plane have shallower mass function slopes. At a given distance to the Galactic center, clusters closer to the Galactic plane have shallower mass function slopes. At a given R(GC) and/or Z(GP), more metal-rich clusters have shallower mass function slopes. Thus, the monovariate correlations with the position or metallicity are both correct, but only partial, and in terms of slopes, biased descriptions of the situation. We present trivariate least-squares solutions where the mass function slopes can be predicted within the measurement accuracy. This relation can serve as a powerful observational constraint for theories of globular cluster formation and evolution, and it is one of the tightest correlations between globular cluster properties now known.

Djorgovski, S.↗

Radio occultation studies of the Venus atmosphere with the Magellan spacecraft. 1: Experimental description and performance

While primarily designed for radar studies of the Venus surface, the high effective isotropic radiated power (EIRP) from the Magellan spacecraft makes it an ideal transmitter for use in radio occultation measurements of the refractivity and absorptivity of the Venus atmosphere. Such experiments have been conducted involving transmissions at 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz (13 cm and 3.6 cm, respectively), during spacecraft ingress. Since the stability of the spacecraft transmitter is critical for accurately determining the Doppler shift and amplitude attenuation created as the ray penetrates the atmosphere, the spacecraft transmitter was locked to a 2.1 GHz uplink from a 70-meter DSN station which also received the signals. Because of the high directivity of the spacecraft antenna, and the significant ray bending in the deep Venus atmosphere, a spacecraft tracking maneuver was designed to keep the spacecraft antenna pointed in the direction of the refracted ray path back to Earth. This tracking maneuver, plus the high EIRP of the Magellan transmitter has yielded 3.6 cm refractivity and absorptivity profiles down to the 35 km altitude and 13 cm profiles down to the altitude of critical refraction (approximately 33 km). The statistical uncertainties in the derived profiles are significantly lower than those previously obtained, resulting in extremely accurate profiles of H2SO4 (g) abundance as discussed in an accompanying paper.

Steffes, Paul G.↗

Incorporating Parallel Computing into the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations or forecast alone can provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called the analysis, are regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. Analysis plays a key role in numerical weather prediction and is becoming increasingly important for climate research. These applications, and the need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system pose computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. The mission of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. The system used to create these datasets is the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The core components of the the GEOS DAS are: the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM), the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS), the Observer, the on-line Quality Control (QC) system, the Coupler (which feeds analysis increments back to the GCM), and an I/O package for processing the large amounts of data the system produces (which will be described in another presentation in this session). The discussion will center on the following issues: the computational complexity for the whole GEOS DAS, assessment of the performance of the individual elements of GEOS DAS, and parallelization strategy for some of the components of the system.

Larson, Jay W.↗

File Specification for MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM)

This document provides a brief description of the output collections from the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (M2-SCREAM) produced at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. These data are generated by assimilating retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) into the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) driven by meteorological fields from MERRA-2. M2-SCREAM assimilates hydrochloric acid (HCl), nitric acid (HNO3), stratospheric water vapor (H2O), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone with a system equipped with a version of the GEOS general circulation model and a stratospheric chemistry model, StratChem. Assimilated fields are provided globally at 0.5° by 0.625° resolution at three-hourly frequencies from 2004/09/01 to 2021. Assimilation uncertainties for each of the assimilated constituents are calculated from the CoDAS statistical output (Wargan et al., 2022) and provided as global full-resolution three-dimensional monthly files.

Krzysztof Wargan↗

Energy spectrum transfer equations of solar wind turbulence

The recent studies of transfer equations for solar wind magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence are reviewed with emphasis on the comparison with the statistical observational results. Helios and Voyager missions provide an opportunity to study the the radial evolution of the power spectrum. the cross-helicity the Alfven ratio and the minimum variance direction. Spectrum transfer equations are considered as a tool to explore the nature of this radial evolution of the fluctuations. The transfer equations are derived from incompressible MHD equations. Generally one needs to make assumptions about the nature of the fluctuations and the nature of the turbulent non-linear interactions to obtain numerical results which can be compared with the observations. Some special model results for several simple cases SUCH as for structures or strong mixing. for Alfven waves with weak turbulent interactions. and for a superposition of structures and Alfven waves. are discussed. The difference between the various approaches to derive and handle the transfer equations are also addressed. Finally some theoretical description of the compressible fluctuations are also briefly reviewed.

Tu, C.-Y.↗

Development of algorithms for understanding the temporal and spatial variability of the earth's radiation balance

A brief description is given of how temporal and spatial variability in the earth's radiative behavior influences the goals of satellite radiation monitoring systems and how some previous systems have addressed the existing problems. Then, results of some simulations of radiation budget monitoring missions are presented. These studies led to the design of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). A description is given of the temporal and spatial averaging algorithms developed for the ERBE data analysis. These algorithms are intended primarily to produce monthly averages of the net radiant exitance on regional, zonal, and global scales and to provide insight into the regional diurnal variability of radiative parameters such as albedo and long-wave radiant exitance. The algorithms are applied to scanner and nonscanner data for up to three satellites. Modeling of dialy shortwave albedo and radiant exitance with satellite samling that is insufficient to fully account for changing meteorology is discussed in detail. Studies performed during the ERBE mission and software design are reviewed. These studies provide quantitative estimates of the effects of temporally sparse and biased sampling on inferred diurnal and regional radiative parameters. Other topics covered include long-wave diurnal modeling, extraction of a regional monthly net clear-sky radiation budget, the statistical significance of observed diurnal variability, quality control of the analysis, and proposals for validating the results of ERBE time and space averaging.

Brooks, D. R.↗

Overview of the SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division Activities and Technical Projects

The SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division activities include identification and fulfillment of joint industry, government, and academia needs for development and implementation of RMSL technologies. Four Projects in the Probabilistic Methods area and two in the area of RMSL have been identified. These are: (1) Evaluation of Probabilistic Technology - progress has been made toward the selection of probabilistic application cases. Future effort will focus on assessment of multiple probabilistic softwares in solving selected engineering problems using probabilistic methods. Relevance to Industry & Government - Case studies of typical problems encountering uncertainties, results of solutions to these problems run by different codes, and recommendations on which code is applicable for what problems; (2) Probabilistic Input Preparation - progress has been made in identifying problem cases such as those with no data, little data and sufficient data. Future effort will focus on developing guidelines for preparing input for probabilistic analysis, especially with no or little data. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we get bogged down thinking we need a lot of data before we can quantify uncertainties. Not True. There are ways to do credible probabilistic analysis with little data; (3) Probabilistic Reliability - probabilistic reliability literature search has been completed along with what differentiates it from statistical reliability. Work on computation of reliability based on quantification of uncertainties in primitive variables is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Correct reliability computations both at the component and system level are needed so one can design an item based on its expected usage and life span; (4) Real World Applications of Probabilistic Methods (PM) - A draft of volume 1 comprising aerospace applications has been released. Volume 2, a compilation of real world applications of probabilistic methods with essential information demonstrating application type and timehost savings by the use of probabilistic methods for generic applications is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we say, 'The Proof is in the Pudding'. With help from many contributors, we hope to produce such a document. Problem is - not too many people are coming forward due to proprietary nature. So, we are asking to document only minimum information including problem description, what method used, did it result in any savings, and how much?; (5) Software Reliability - software reliability concept, program, implementation, guidelines, and standards are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - software reliability is a complex issue that must be understood & addressed in all facets of business in industry, government, and other institutions. We address issues, concepts, ways to implement solutions, and guidelines for maximizing software reliability; (6) Maintainability Standards - maintainability/serviceability industry standard/guidelines and industry best practices and methodologies used in performing maintainability/ serviceability tasks are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - Any industry or government process, project, and/or tool must be maintained and serviced to realize the life and performance it was designed for. We address issues and develop guidelines for optimum performance & life.

Singhal, Surendra N.↗

Empirical STORM-E Model

Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

Mertens, Christopher J.↗

Impact Study of the Assimilation of Surface Sensitive Microwave Radiances in the GEOS

The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of assimilating low frequency microwave observations from different satellite Microwave radiometers such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). These observations are relevant to the description of air temperature, humidity, and surface parameters such as ocean surface temperature. Their assimilation into Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation system helps better constrain models in regions where very few observations are assimilated. In recent years, Channels 1–4 and 15 have not been assimilated in GEOS because of their large sensitivities to uncertain surface parameters such as emissivity and skin temperature. Here, the impact of using different channels will be discussed. Also we investigate the validity of the emissivity model in these channels over ocean and sea ice.Radiative transfer calculations necessary for the assimilation of satellite radiances are performed using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The CRTM performs forward radiative transfer calculations of brightness temperature from atmospheric profiles (temperature, moisture, and ozone) and surface characteristics. Additionally, the CRTM calculates the Jacobians of brightness temperature with respect to the input . The Jacobians are for the inversion of these radiances within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system. Here, For direct assimilation of the radiance observations, the interface between GSI and CRTM, is slightly modified. Finally, we validate the assimilation results, and discuss the impact of each channels in detail.

Ebrahimi, Hamideh↗

Analysis of Igniter/Promoter Material Effects on Burn Length Variability in Astm G124 Standard Testing

ASTM G124 refers to the “Standard Test Method for Determining the Combustion Behavior of Metallic Materials in Oxygen Enriched Atmospheres”. Major test parameters are well defined in the standard and a detailed description of how to set up and conduct the test is also included. However, one variable - the igniter/promoter system - is not clearly restricted or specified. Due to the fact that this igniter/promoter system is not definitively specified, multiple materials have been used. This lack of specificity in igniter/promoter material was identified as a potential source of variability in test results, and as such has been selected for this study as a parameter to analyze and identify if the igniters/promoters should be standardized. For that purpose, several igniter/promoter systems have been selected (that were currently in use at various laboratories) which would be tested via ASTM G124 with Inconel 718 test rods. Testing was conducted over two phases – the first for screening promoter effects in the transition region of the material, and the second for comparing measured flammability thresholds identified through testing by each igniter/promoter type. The results of this study have found that igniter/promoter material is not a statistically significant factor in the variability of burn length in test samples. Initial results showing variability was likely due to small sample size, as the issue became less pronounced once more samples were tested and more data generated. Each of the igniter/promoter systems tested were effective at determining flammability thresholds and so it is concluded that no specific igniter/promoter needs to be identified in the ASTM G124 test standard.

oxygen compatibility↗