Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “decadal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 433 records · Page 24

NWChem: Past, present, and future

Specialized computational chemistry packages have permanently reshaped the landscape of chemical sciences by providing tools to support and guide the experimental effort and for prediction of chemical and materials properties. In this regard, a special role has been played by electronic structure packages where complex chemical and materials processes can be modeled using first-principle-driven methodologies. Over the last few decades, the rapid development of computing technologies and a tremendous increase in computational power has offered a unique chance to study complex chemical transformations using sophisticated and predictive many-body techniques to describe correlated behavior of electrons in molecular and condensed phase systems at different levels of theory. In enabling these simulations, a critical role has been played by novel parallel algorithms capable of taking advantage of computational resources to address polynomial scaling of electronic structure methods. NWChem was among the first electronic structure codes that focused on delivering scalable performance for electronic structure simulations. Herein, we briefly review the NWChem suite of computational codes including its history, design principles, parallel tools, current capabilities, outreach and outlook.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Breakdown of the Static Dielectric Screening Approximation of Coulomb Interactions in Atomically Thin Semiconductors

Coulomb interactions in atomically thin materials are remarkably sensitive to variations in the dielectric screening of the environment, which can be used to control exotic quantum many-body phases and engineer exciton potential landscapes. For decades, static or frequency-independent approximations of the dielectric response, where increased dielectric screening is predicted to cause an energy redshift of the exciton resonance, have been sufficient. These approximations were first applied to quantum wells and were more recently extended with initial success to layered transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs). Here, we use charge-tunable exciton resonances to investigate screening effects in TMD monolayers embedded in materials with low-frequency dielectric constants ranging from 4 to more than 1000, a range of 2 orders of magnitude larger than in previous studies. In contrast to the redshift predicted by static models, we observe a blueshift of the exciton resonance exceeding 30 meV in higher dielectric constant environments. We explain our observations by introducing a dynamical screening model based on a solution to the Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE). When dynamical effects are strong, we find that the exciton binding energy remains mostly controlled by the low-frequency dielectric response, while the exciton self-energy is dominated by the high-frequency one. Our results supplant the understanding of screening in layered materials and their heterostructures, introduce a knob to tune selected many-body effects, and reshape the framework for detecting and controlling correlated quantum many-body states and designing optoelectronic and quantum devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Matter power spectra in modified gravity: a comparative study of approximations and N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Testing gravity and the concordance model of cosmology, $\Lambda$CDM, at large scales is a key goal of this decade’s largest galaxy surveys. Here we present a comparative study of dark matter power spectrum predictions from different numerical codes in the context of three popular theories of gravity that induce scale-independent modifications to the linear growth of structure: nDGP, Cubic Galileon, and K-mouflage. In particular, we compare the predictions from N-body simulations solving the full scalar field equation, two N-body codes with approximate time integration schemes, a parametrized modified N-body implementation, and the analytic halo model reaction approach. We find the modification to the $\Lambda$CDM spectrum is in 2 per cent agreement at $z\le 1$ and $k\le 1~h\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ over all gravitational models and codes, in accordance with many previous studies, indicating these modelling approaches are robust enough to be used in forthcoming survey analyses under appropriate scale cuts. We further make public the new code implementations presented, specifically the halo model reaction K-mouflage implementation and the relativistic Cubic Galileon implementation.

Bose, B. (ORCID:0000000319658614)↗

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accelerated Selectrion of Optimal Perovskite Alloys for Solar PV using a Combined Quantum and Machine Learning Hierachiral Approach

The project aims to: (i) accelerate the discovery of “Missing HP alloys” by combining quantum mechanics and artificial intelligence machine learning approaches, and (ii) analyze the stabilities of candidate alloys, including those that do not pass selection filters (and are thus expected to degrade over time) to decipher the nature of the instabilities to guide the development of durable solar cell materials. Successful candidates will be subjected to validation experiments at NREL's state-of-the-art facilities. The discoveries this effort will provide will be directly testable and implementable and will greatly impact U.S. progress in HP PV as they will provide clear direction and motivation for experimental studies including specific material synthetic targets, device optimization, and device stability protocols. A key advantage of this effort is the feedback and guidance provided by the Industry Collaborative Work Group that we established to coordinate academic and national lab research with industry needs. The proposed work will provide a basis for and direct the development of robust and reliable HP PV. It will also provide a timely, valuable and extensive roadmap to the experimental HP PV community to enable it to focus its efforts on improving and fine-tuning promising HP compositions that this effort predicts will likely be the best performers rather than wandering in the vast chemical space for decades spending enormous resources mostly evaluating unpromising candidate materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uncertainty-Based Design: Finite Element and Explainable Machine Learning Modeling of Carbon–Carbon Composites for Ultra-High Temperature Solar Receivers

Design under uncertainty has significantly grown in research developments during the past decade. Additionally, machine learning (ML) and explainable ML (XML) have offered various opportunities to provide reliable predictable models. The current article investigates the use of finite element modeling (FEM), ML and XML predictions, and uncertain-based design of carbon-carbon (C-C) composites for use in ultra-high temperatures. A C-C composite concentrating solar power (CSP) as a microvascular receiver is considered as a case study. These C-C composites are fiber composites with directly integrated carbonized microchannels to form a lightweight, high-absorptivity material that includes an embedded microvascular network of channels. The topology of these microchannels is engineered to optimize heat transfer to a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) heat transfer fluid. The mechanical characterization of C-C composites is highly challenging. Thus, designing every component made of C-C composites for ultra-high temperature applications needs an uncertainty-based analysis. As a part of a comprehensive project on the development of a novel carbonized microvascular C-C composite, this paper explores C-C composite sensitivity analysis, FEM, ML prediction, and XML analysis. The resulting composite can then be carbonized and coated with an oxidation-resistant coating to form a thermally efficient and mechanically robust C-C composite. An ANSYS 3-D-FE model was used to analyze the CSP’s stress/strain. To consider the variability in the mechanical and thermal properties of C-C composites, various mechanical properties are considered as the ANSYS FEM’s input. A synthetic dataset from 730 ANSYS runs was produced to feed into the ML and XML algorithms for uncertainty analysis and prediction. The ML and XML algorithms could accurately predict the CSP stresses/strains.

Daghigh, Vahid (ORCID:0000000298941620)↗

Going beyond BEM with BEM: an insight into dynamic inflow effects on floating wind turbines

Blade element momentum (BEM) theory is the backbone of many industry-standard wind turbine aerodynamic models. To be applied to a broader set of engineering problems, BEM models have been extended since their inception and now include several empirical corrections. These models have benefitted from decades of development and refinement and have been extensively used and validated, proving their adequacy in predicting aerodynamic forces of horizontal-axis wind turbine rotors in most scenarios. However, the analysis of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) introduces new sets of challenges, especially if new-generation large and flexible machines are considered. In fact, due to the combined action of wind and waves and their interaction with the turbine structure and control system, these machines are subject to unsteady motion and thus unsteady inflow on the wind turbine's blades, which could put BEM models to the test. Consensus has not been reached on the accuracy limits of BEM in these conditions. This study contributes to the ongoing research on the topic by systematically comparing four different aerodynamic models, ranging from BEM to computational fluid dynamics, in an attempt to shed light on the unsteady aerodynamic phenomena that are at stake in FOWTs and whether BEM is able to model them appropriately. Simulations are performed on the UNAFLOW 1:75 scale rotor during imposed harmonic surge and pitch motion. Experimental results are available for these conditions and are used for baseline validation. The rotor is analyzed in both rated operating conditions and low wind speeds, where unsteady aerodynamic effects are expected to be more pronounced. Results show that BEM, despite its simplicity, can adequately model the aerodynamics of FOWTs in most conditions if augmented with a dynamic inflow model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Stress-life interrelationships associated with alkaline fuel cells

A review is presented concerning the interrelationships between applied stress and the expected service life of alkaline fuel cells. Only the physical, chemical, and electrochemical phenomena that take place within the fuel cell stack portion of an overall fuel cell system will be discussed. A brief review will be given covering the significant improvements in performance and life over the past two decades as well as summarizing the more recent advances in understanding which can be used to predict the performance and life characteristics of fuel cell systems that have yet to be built.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗

Stress-life interrelationships associated with alkaline fuel cells

A review is presented concerning the interrelationships between applied stress and the expected service life of alkaline fuel cells. Only the physical, chemical, and electrochemical phenomena that take place within the fuel cell stack portion of an overall fuel cell system will be discussed. A brief review will be given covering the significant improvements in performance and life over the past two decades as well as summarizing the more recent advances in understanding which can be used to predict the performance and life characteristics of fuel cell systems that have yet to be built.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗

Modeling Studies of the Effects of Winds and Heat Flux on the Tropical Oceans

Over a decade ago, funding from this NASA grant supported the development of the Cane-Zebiak ENSO prediction model which remains in use to this day. It also supported our work developing schemes for modeling the air-sea heat flux in ocean models used for studying climate variability. We introduced a succession of simple boundary layer models that allow the fluxes to be computed internally in the model and avoid the need to specify the atmospheric thermodynamic state. These models have now reached a level of generality that allows modeling of the global, rather than just tropical, ocean, including sea ice cover. The most recent versions of these boundary layer models have been widely distributed around the world and are in use by many ocean modeling groups.

Seager, R.↗

Silicon Heat Pipe Array

Improved methods of heat dissipation are required for modern, high-power density electronic systems. As increased functionality is progressively compacted into decreasing volumes, this need will be exacerbated. High-performance chip power is predicted to increase monotonically and rapidly with time. Systems utilizing these chips are currently reliant upon decades of old cooling technology. Heat pipes offer a solution to this problem. Heat pipes are passive, self-contained, two-phase heat dissipation devices. Heat conducted into the device through a wick structure converts the working fluid into a vapor, which then releases the heat via condensation after being transported away from the heat source. Heat pipes have high thermal conductivities, are inexpensive, and have been utilized in previous space missions. However, the cylindrical geometry of commercial heat pipes is a poor fit to the planar geometries of microelectronic assemblies, the copper that commercial heat pipes are typically constructed of is a poor CTE (coefficient of thermal expansion) match to the semiconductor die utilized in these assemblies, and the functionality and reliability of heat pipes in general is strongly dependent on the orientation of the assembly with respect to the gravity vector. What is needed is a planar, semiconductor-based heat pipe array that can be used for cooling of generic MCM (multichip module) assemblies that can also function in all orientations. Such a structure would not only have applications in the cooling of space electronics, but would have commercial applications as well (e.g. cooling of microprocessors and high-power laser diodes). This technology is an improvement over existing heat pipe designs due to the finer porosity of the wick, which enhances capillary pumping pressure, resulting in greater effective thermal conductivity and performance in any orientation with respect to the gravity vector. In addition, it is constructed of silicon, and thus is better suited for the cooling of semiconductor devices.

Yee, Karl Y.↗

The Ultraviolet Radiation Environment around M Dwarf Exoplanet Host Stars

The spectral and temporal behavior of exoplanet host stars is a critical input to models of the chemistry and evolution of planetary atmospheres. Ultraviolet photons influence the atmospheric temperature profiles and production of potential biomarkers on Earth-like planets around these stars. At present, little observational or theoretical basis exists for understanding the ultraviolet spectra of M dwarfs, despite their critical importance to predicting and interpreting the spectra of potentially habitable planets as they are obtained in the coming decades. Using observations from the Hubble Space Telescope, we present a study of the UV radiation fields around nearby M dwarf planet hosts that covers both far-UV (FUV) and near-UV (NUV) wavelengths. The combined FUV+NUV spectra are publicly available in machine-readable format. We find that all six exoplanet host stars in our sample (GJ 581, GJ 876, GJ 436, GJ 832, GJ 667C, and GJ 1214) exhibit some level of chromospheric and transition region UV emission. No "UV-quiet" M dwarfs are observed. The bright stellar Lyman-alpha emission lines are reconstructed, and we find that the Lyman-alpha line fluxes comprise approximately 37%-75% of the total 1150-3100 A flux from most M dwarfs; approximately greater than 10(exp3) times the solar value. We develop an empirical scaling relation between Lyman-alpha and Mg II emission, to be used when interstellar H I attenuation precludes the direct observation of Lyman-alpha. The intrinsic unreddened flux ratio is F(Lyman-alpha)/F(Mg II) = 10(exp3). The F(FUV)/F(NUV) flux ratio, a driver for abiotic production of the suggested biomarkers O2 and O3, is shown to be approximately 0.5-3 for all M dwarfs in our sample, greather than 10(exp3) times the solar ratio. For the four stars with moderate signal-to-noise Cosmic Origins Spectrograph time-resolved spectra, we find UV emission line variability with amplitudes of 50%.500% on 10(exp2)-10(exp3) s timescales. This effect should be taken into account in future UV transiting planet studies, including searches for O3 on Earth-like planets. Finally, we observe relatively bright H2 fluorescent emission from four of the M dwarf exoplanetary systems (GJ 581, GJ 876, GJ 436, and GJ 832). Additional modeling work is needed to differentiate between a stellar photospheric or possible exoplanetary origin for the hot (T(H2) approximately equal to 2000-4000 K) molecular gas observed in these objects.

France, Kevin↗

Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions

Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 C relative to the 1880 - 1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6 - 9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89 - 535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

Hansen, James↗

A predictive model for space-based X-ray CCD degradation

The first generation of X-ray telescopes to use Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs) is being launched this decade. With a read noise of a few electrons, CCDs provide Fano-limited spectral resolution across the soft X-ray band (0.1 - 10 keV). However, degradation of resolution due to charge transfer losses becomes noticeable as Charge Transfer Inefficiency (CTI) increases to 10(exp -5). In this paper, we present a model which calculates the effects of radiation damage in low Earth orbit in order to predict CCD lifetimes over which good charge transfer is maintained. The model presented here considers damage mechanisms within the CCD, environmental conditions in which the CCD operates, and experiment shielding. We find that the predicted CTI approaches 10(exp -5) after a one to two year mission for the flight instruments considered here.

Antunes, Alex↗

Comment on "The Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred three-cycle Quasiperiodicity of the Planetary Index Ap"

Recently, Ahluwalia reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasiperiodicity in them." Furthermore, on the basis of this inferred quasiperiodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new three-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum", a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselin et al. and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be readdressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. First, Ahluwalia appears to have based his analysis on a data set of Ap index values that is erroneous. For example, he depicts for the interval of 1932-1997 the variation of the Ap index in terms of annual averages, contrasting them against annual averages of sunspot number (SSN), and he lists for cycles 17-23 the minimum and maximum value of each, as well as the years in which they occur and a quantity which he calls "Amplitude" (defined as the numeric difference between the maximum and minimum values). In particular, he identifies the minimum Ap index (i.e., the minimum value of the Ap index in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum, which usually occurs in the year following sunspot minimum and which will be called hereafter, simply, Ap min) and the year in which it occur for cycles 17 - 23 respectively.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Climate change↗

Differential early–life survival underlies the adaptive significance of temperature–dependent sex determination in a long–lived reptile

1. Many ectotherms rely on temperature cues experienced during development to determine offspring sex. The first descriptions of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) were made over 50 years ago, yet an understanding of its adaptive significance remains elusive, especially in long-lived taxa. 2. One novel hypothesis predicts that TSD should be evolutionarily favoured when two criteria are met—(a) incubation temperature influences annual juvenile survival and (b) sexes mature at different ages. Under these conditions, a sex-dependent effect of incubation temperature on offspring fitness arises through differences in age at sexual maturity, with the sex that matures later benefiting disproportionately from temperatures that promote juvenile survival. 3. The American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) serves as an insightful model in which to test this hypothesis, as males begin reproducing nearly a decade after females. Here, through a combination of artificial incubation experiments and mark-recapture approaches, we test the specific predictions of the survival-to-maturity hypothesis for the adaptive value of TSD by disentangling the effects of incubation temperature and sex on annual survival of alligator hatchlings across two geographically distinct sites. 4. Hatchlings incubated at male-promoting temperatures (MPTs) consistently exhibited higher survival compared to those incubated at female-promoting temperatures. This pattern appears independent of hatchling sex, as females produced from hormone manipulation at MPT exhibit similar survival to their male counterparts. 5. Additional experiments show that incubation temperature may affect early-life survival primarily by affecting the efficiency with which maternally transferred energy resources are used during development. 6. Results from this study provide the first explicit empirical support for the adaptive value of TSD in a crocodilian and point to developmental energetics as a potential unifying mechanism underlying persistent survival consequences of incubation temperature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗