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At least 433 records · Page 24

Upper-tropospheric influences on Western Pacific tropical cyclone intensity change as inferred from satellite ozone observations

The use of Nimbus-7 TOMS data to diagnose changes in tropical cyclone intensity is demonstrated. The relationship between upper-tropospheric environmental total ozone distribution and intensity for a tropical cyclone case study is examined. The climatological total ozone patterns are used to identify the upper-tropospheric features to differentiate between intensifying and nonintensifying Western Pacific tropical cyclones.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

Carbon Consequences of Forest Disturbance and Recovery Across the Conterminous United States

Forests of North America are thought to constitute a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has developed a large data base of stock changes derived from consecutive estimates of growing stock volume in the US. These data reveal a large and relatively stable increase in forest carbon stocks over the last two decades or more. The mechanisms underlying this national increase in forest stocks may include recovery of forests from past disturbances, net increases in forest area, and growth enhancement driven by climate or fertilization by CO2 and Nitrogen. Here we estimate the forest recovery component of the observed stock changes using FIA data on the age structure of US forests and carbon stocks as a function of age. The latter are used to parameterize forest disturbance and recovery processes in a carbon cycle model. We then apply resulting disturbance/recovery dynamics to landscapes and regions based on the forest age distributions. The analysis centers on 28 representative climate settings spread about forested regions of the conterminous US. We estimate carbon fluxes for each region and propagate uncertainties in calibration data through to the predicted fluxes. The largest recovery-driven carbon sinks are found in the South central, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions, with spatially averaged net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 100 g C / square m / a driven by forest age structure. Carbon sinks from recovery in the Northeast and Northern Lake States remain moderate to large owing to the legacy of historical clearing and relatively low modern disturbance rates from harvest and fire. At the continental scale, we find a conterminous U.S. forest NEP of only 0.16 Pg C/a from age structure in 2005, or only 0.047 Pg C/a of forest stock change after accounting for fire emissions and harvest transfers. Recent estimates of NEP derived from inventory stock change, harvest, and fire data show twice the NEP sink we derive from forest age distributions. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies including modeling errors and the possibility of climate and/or fertilization (CO2 or N) growth enhancements.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

Mapping 2000 2010 Impervious Surface Change in India Using Global Land Survey Landsat Data

Understanding and monitoring the environmental impacts of global urbanization requires better urban datasets. Continuous field impervious surface change (ISC) mapping using Landsat data is an effective way to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization. It is well acknowledged that Landsat-based estimation of impervious surface is subject to seasonal and phenological variations. The overall goal of this paper is to map 200-02010 ISC for India using Global Land Survey datasets and training data only available for 2010. To this end, a method was developed that could transfer the regression tree model developed for mapping 2010 impervious surface to 2000 using an iterative training and prediction (ITP) approach An independent validation dataset was also developed using Google Earth imagery. Based on the reference ISC from the validation dataset, the RMSE of predicted ISC was estimated to be 18.4%. At 95% confidence, the total estimated ISC for India between 2000 and 2010 is 2274.62 +/- 7.84 sq km.

Wang, Panshi↗

Monitoring Change Through Hierarchical Segmentation of Remotely Sensed Image Data

NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has developed a fast and effective method for generating image segmentation hierarchies. These segmentation hierarchies organize image data in a manner that makes their information content more accessible for analysis. Image segmentation enables analysis through the examination of image regions rather than individual image pixels. In addition, the segmentation hierarchy provides additional analysis clues through the tracing of the behavior of image region characteristics at several levels of segmentation detail. The potential for extracting the information content from imagery data based on segmentation hierarchies has not been fully explored for the benefit of the Earth and space science communities. This paper explores the potential of exploiting these segmentation hierarchies for the analysis of multi-date data sets, and for the particular application of change monitoring.

Tilton, James C.↗

A gridding approach to detect patterns of change in coastal wetlands from digital data

The conversion of land to water or water to land in the Grand Bayou wetlands area from 1972 to 1981 is evaluated on the basis of Landsat MSS band 2 and 4 images. A postclassification (land vs water) procedure is employed, and grids 1, 5, 10, 25, and 50 pixels square are superimposed on the classified data in an effort to reduce the effects of poor georegistration of the images (simulated by shifting one set of grids two pixels vertically and horizontally). The results are presented in tables, maps, and sample images and characterized in detail. Grids 5 or 10 pixels square are found to give percentage land/water change values and locations similar to those obtained in pixel-by-pixel analysis of nearly perfectly matched images.

Pelletier, R. E.↗

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Munasinghe, L.↗

The SAS-3 programmable telemetry system

Basic concept, system design and operation principles of the telemetry system developed for the Small Astronomy Satellite-3 (SAS-3) are analyzed. The concept of programmable format selected for the SAS-3 represents an optical combination of the fixed format system of SAS-1 and SAS-2, and the adaptive format concept. The programmable telemetry system permits a very wide range of changes in the data sampling order by a ground control station, depending on the experimental requirements, so that the maximal amount of useful data can be returned from orbit. The programmable system also allows the data format to differ from one spacecraft to another without changing hardware. Attention is given to the command requirements and redundancy of the SAS-3 telemetry system.

Peterson, M. R.↗

Satellite observation of lake ice as a climate indicator - Initial results from statewide monitoring in Wisconsin

The research reported herein focused on the general hypothesis that satellite remote sensing of large-area, long-term trends in lake ice phenology (formation and breakup) is a robust, integrated measure of regional and global climate change. To validate this hypothesis, we explored the use of data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to discriminate the presence and extent of lake ice during the winter of 1990-1991 on the 45 lakes and reservoirs in Wisconsin with a surface area greater than 1,000 hectares. Our results suggest both the feasibility of using the AVHRR to determine the date of lake ice breakup as well as the strong correlation (R= -0.87) of the date so derived with local surface-based temperature measurements. These results suggest the potential of using current and archival satellite data to monitor changes in the date of lake ice breakup as a means of detecting regional 'signals' of greenhouse warming.

Wynne, Randolph H.↗

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model: New Insights into Modeling the Pre-Industrial Atmosphere - 2

We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

Grenfell, J. Lee↗

A Factorial Data Rate and Dwell Time Experiment in the National Transonic Facility

This report is an introductory tutorial on the application of formal experiment design methods to wind tunnel testing, for the benefit of aeronautical engineers with little formal experiment design training. It also describes the results of a Study to determine whether increases in the sample rate and dwell time of the National Transonic Facility data system Would result in significant changes in force and moment data. Increases in sample rate from 10 samples per second to 50 samples per second were examined, as were changes in dwell time from one second per data point to two seconds. These changes were examined for a representative aircraft model in a range of tunnel operating conditions defined by angles of attack from 0 deg to 3.8 degrees, total pressure from 15.0 psi to 24.1 psi, and Mach numbers from 0.52 to 0.82. No statistically significant effect was associated with the change in sample rate. The change in dwell time from one second to two seconds affected axial force measurements, and to a lesser degree normal force measurements. This dwell effect comprises a "rectification error" caused by incomplete cancellation of the positive and negative elements of certain low frequency dynamic components that are not rejected by the one-Hz low-pass filters of the data system. These low frequency effects may be due to tunnel circuit phenomena and other sources. The magnitude of the dwell effect depends on dynamic pressure, with angle of attack and Mach number influencing the strength of this dependence. An analysis is presented which suggests that the magnitude of the rectification error depends on the ratio of measurement dwell time to the period of the low-frequency dynamics, as well as the amplitude of the dynamics The essential conclusion of this analysis is that extending the dwell time (or, equivalently, replicating short-dwell data points) reduces the rectification error.

DeLoach, R.↗

The Martian Ionospheric Response to the Co-Rotating Interaction Region That Caused the Disappearing Solar Wind Event at Mars

An unusually low density solar wind event was observed in December 2022 moving past both Earth and Mars. The source was traced back to a coronal hole and active region on the Sun's surface. The resulting solar wind lead to the development of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and trailing rarefaction region that lasted for multiple solar rotations. Within this structure, the solar wind conditions, including density, velocity, and magnetic field magnitude and orientation drastically changed. In this study we analyze the response of the Martian ionosphere using MAVEN data to these changing solar wind conditions. The low density solar wind region associated with the December event resulted in the expansion of the Martian ionospheric boundaries. We show that the ion composition boundary (ICB) is located at extreme altitudes that are beyond previously observed locations from the MAVEN mission between 2015 and 2018. Furthermore, the boundary between shocked solar wind and the Martian ionosphere identified using electron and ion data moved together on the dayside of the planet with the changing solar wind conditions. However, at the flank region these boundaries do not move together, and we show here that the decoupling of the two boundaries may be the result of a change in the interplanetary magnetic field azimuthal angle.

S. R. Shaver↗

Toward the modeling of land use change: A spatial analysis using remote sensing and historical data

It was hypothesized that the chronological observation of land use change could be shown to follow a predictable pattern and these patterns could be correlated with other statistical data to develop transition probabilities suitable for modeling purposes. A literature review and preliminary research, however, indicated a totally stochastic approach was not practical for simulating land use change and thus a more deterministic approach was adopted. The approach used assumes the determinants of the land use conversion process are found in the market place, where land transactions among buyers and sellers occur. Only one side of the market transaction process is studied, however, namely, the purchaser's desires in securing an ideal or suitable site. The problem was to identify the ideal qualities, quantities or attributes desired in an industrial site (or housing development), and to formulate a general algorithmic statement capable of identifying potential development sites. Research procedures involved developing a list of variables previously noted in the literature to be related to site selection and streamlining the list to a set suitable for statistical testing. A sample of 157 industries which have located (or relocated) in the 16-county Knoxville metropolitan region since 1950 was selected for industrial location analysis. Using NASA color infrared photography and Tennessee Valley Authority historical aerial photography, data were collected on the spatial characteristics of each industrial location event. These data were then subjected to factor analysis to determine the interrelations of variables.

Honea, R. B.↗

Update on Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

Since the June 2010 Astronomy Conference, an independent review of our cost data base discovered some inaccuracies and inconsistencies which can modify our previously reported results. This paper will review changes to the data base, our confidence in those changes and their effect on various parametric cost models

Stahl. H. Philip↗

A New Monte Carlo Filtering Method for the Diagnosis of Mission-Critical Failures

Testing large-scale systems is expensive in terms of both time and money. Running simulations early in the process is a proven method of finding the design faults likely to lead to critical system failures, but determining the exact cause of those errors is still time-consuming and requires access to a limited number of domain experts. It is desirable to find an automated method that explores the large number of combinations and is able to isolate likely fault points. Treatment learning is a subset of minimal contrast-set learning that, rather than classifying data into distinct categories, focuses on finding the unique factors that lead to a particular classification. That is, they find the smallest change to the data that causes the largest change in the class distribution. These treatments, when imposed, are able to identify the settings most likely to cause a mission-critical failure. This research benchmarks two treatment learning methods against standard optimization techniques across three complex systems, including two projects from the Robust Software Engineering (RSE) group within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center. It is shown that these treatment learners are both faster than traditional methods and show demonstrably better results.

Gay, Gregory↗

Automatically Finding the Control Variables for Complex System Behavior

Testing large-scale systems is expensive in terms of both time and money. Running simulations early in the process is a proven method of finding the design faults likely to lead to critical system failures, but determining the exact cause of those errors is still time-consuming and requires access to a limited number of domain experts. It is desirable to find an automated method that explores the large number of combinations and is able to isolate likely fault points. Treatment learning is a subset of minimal contrast-set learning that, rather than classifying data into distinct categories, focuses on finding the unique factors that lead to a particular classification. That is, they find the smallest change to the data that causes the largest change in the class distribution. These treatments, when imposed, are able to identify the factors most likely to cause a mission-critical failure. The goal of this research is to comparatively assess treatment learning against state-of-the-art numerical optimization techniques. To achieve this, this paper benchmarks the TAR3 and TAR4.1 treatment learners against optimization techniques across three complex systems, including two projects from the Robust Software Engineering (RSE) group within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center. The results clearly show that treatment learning is both faster and more accurate than traditional optimization methods.

Gay, Gregory↗

High Reynolds number analysis of an axisymmetric afterbody with flow separation

The ability of a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes method, PAB3D, to predict nozzle afterbody flow at high Reynolds number was assessed. Predicted surface pressure coefficient distributions and integrated afterbody drag are compared with experimental data obtained from the NASA-Langley 0.3 m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Predicted afterbody surface pressures matched experimental data fairly closely. The change in the pressure coefficient distribution with Reynolds number was slightly over-predicted. Integrated afterbody drag was typically high compared to the experimental data. The change in afterbody pressure drag with Reynolds number was fairly small. The predicted point of flow separation on the nozzle was slightly downstream of that observed from oilflow data at low Reynolds numbers and had a very slight Reynolds number dependence, moving slightly further downstream as Reynolds number increased.

Carlson, John R.↗

Galileo probe parachute test program: Wake properties of the Galileo probe at Mach numbers from 0.25 to 0.95

The results of surveys of the near and far wake of the Galileo Probe are presented for Mach numbers from 0.25 tp 0.95. The trends in the data resulting from changes in Mach number, radial and axial distance, angle of attack, and a small change in model shape are shown in crossplots based on the data. A rationale for selecting an operating volume suitable for parachute inflation based on low Mach number flight results is outlined.

Canning, Thomas N.↗