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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modal Testing of Seven Shuttle Cargo Elements for Space Station

From December 1996 to May 2001, the Modal and Control Dynamics Team at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) conducted modal tests on seven large elements of the International Space Station. Each of these elements has been or will be launched as a Space Shuttle payload for transport to the International Space Station (ISS). Like other Shuttle payloads, modal testing of these elements was required for verification of the finite element models used in coupled loads analyses for launch and landing. The seven modal tests included three modules - Node, Laboratory, and Airlock, and four truss segments - P6, P3/P4, S1/P1, and P5. Each element was installed and tested in the Shuttle Payload Modal Test Bed at MSFC. This unique facility can accommodate any Shuttle cargo element for modal test qualification. Flexure assemblies were utilized at each Shuttle-to-payload interface to simulate a constrained boundary in the load carrying degrees of freedom. For each element, multiple-input, multiple-output burst random modal testing was the primary approach with controlled input sine sweeps for linearity assessments. The accelerometer channel counts ranged from 252 channels to 1251 channels. An overview of these tests, as well as some lessons learned, will be provided in this paper.

Kappus, Kathy O.↗
DOE OSTI2021

State Insights On The Water-Energy Nexus And Policy Ideas To Achieve Greater Savings

Governors, state policymakers, utilities and other stakeholders across the country are increasingly aware of the connection between energy and water production and use, and the need to conserve both resources to meet economic and environmental goals. It requires substantial amounts of water to produce energy and considerable amounts of energy to treat and deliver water. The critical interdependence between energy and water was clearly illustrated during the recent winter storm in Texas and other parts of the South in February 2021. Initial power outages contributed to a longer-term water crisis. Power outages led to water pump failures while water demand increased from frozen water pipes that burst. This caused low water pressure that can lead to harmful bacteria growth in the water. The power outages also prevented water treatment plants from properly treating the water for several days, thereby leaving many residents without clean drinking water and worsening the storm’s impacts. The National Governors Association has been working with states on this connection between water and energy and strategies for conserving those resources for several years. NGA held a Water-Energy Nexus Learning Lab in September 2020. This event invited two leading states in the water-energy nexus space, Arizona and Wisconsin, to showcase some of their model policies and programs to other states, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Washington, looking for greater savings opportunities. This paper provides an overview of challenges that states are facing in developing integrated water and energy conservation policies; provides background on Arizona and Wisconsin’s innovative water-energy policies and programs; and summarizes action items the participating state teams identified for their respective states. The main categories of policy solutions identified by states at NGA’s Water-Energy Nexus Learning Lab were: Funding & Financing – providing financial incentives for water efficiency modeled after established energy efficiency programs, and an emphasis on financial support for small water and energy utilities. Education & Technical Assistance – providing more education and training opportunities about ways to achieve cost-effective energy and water savings, and the needs of resource-constrained small and medium utilities for training and other assistance. Structural Changes to Encourage Conservation – developing ways to incentivize agricultural conservation such as through water allocation strategies; adopting water reuse or water loss standards; and requiring electric utilities to consider water impacts as part of their integrated resource planning process. Communications & Data – conducting energy audits, reviewing water data provided to state agencies, and developing data benchmarking tools to measure and better manage energy and water use. Climate Strategy – establishing a multi-agency working group or other collaborative approach to determine ways to integrate energy and water savings in state policies and help meet the state climate objectives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaming the beamlines—employing reinforcement learning to maximize scientific outcomes at large-scale user facilities

Abstract Beamline experiments at central facilities are increasingly demanding of remote, high-throughput, and adaptive operation conditions. To accommodate such needs, new approaches must be developed that enable on-the-fly decision making for data intensive challenges. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a domain of AI that holds the potential to enable autonomous operations in a feedback loop between beamline experiments and trained agents. Here, we outline the advanced data acquisition and control software of the Bluesky suite, and demonstrate its functionality with a canonical RL problem: cartpole. We then extend these methods to efficient use of beamline resources by using RL to develop an optimal measurement strategy for samples with different scattering characteristics. The RL agents converge on the empirically optimal policy when under-constrained with time. When resource limited, the agents outperform a naive or sequential measurement strategy, often by a factor of 100%. We interface these methods directly with the data storage and provenance technologies at the National Synchrotron Light Source II, thus demonstrating the potential for RL to increase the scientific output of beamlines, and layout the framework for how to achieve this impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plasma image classification using cosine similarity constrained convolutional neural network

Plasma jets are widely investigated both in the laboratory and in nature. Astrophysical objects such as black holes, active galactic nuclei and young stellar objects commonly emit plasma jets in various forms. With the availability of data from plasma jet experiments resembling astrophysical plasma jets, classification of such data would potentially aid in not only investigating the underlying physics of the experiments but also the study of astrophysical jets. In this work we use deep learning to process all of the laboratory plasma images from the Caltech Spheromak Experiment spanning two decades. We found that cosine similarity can aid in feature selection, classify images through comparison of feature vector direction and be used as a loss function for the training of AlexNet for plasma image classification. We also develop a simple vector direction comparison algorithm for binary and multi-class classification. Using our algorithm we demonstrate 93 % accurate binary classification to distinguish unstable columns from stable columns and 92 % accurate five-way classification of a small, labelled data set which includes three classes corresponding to varying levels of kink instability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters [Slides]

Sensitivity coefficients of prompt neutron decay constant (α) and effective delayed neutron fraction (β eff ) to Pu-239 nuclear data were calculated using a newly available tool (ACEtk). Uncertainty calculations showed the following trends: (1) The prompt neutron decay constant can be used to reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239(n,f) and (2) the effective delayed neutron fraction can be used to effectively reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239 total fission $\tilde{v}$. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis can be used to determine optimal experiment/detector setup to identify compensating errors in nuclear data. Upcoming work includes investigating other nuclide-reaction pairs and response sensitivities, such as Δ$\rho$, neutron leakage spectra, and reaction rate measurements to constrain nuclear data of interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A semi-supervised learning method to produce explainable radioisotope proportion estimates for NaI-based synthetic and measured gamma spectra

Quantifying the radioactive sources present in gamma spectra is an ever-present and growing national security mission and a time-consuming process for human analysts. While machine learning models exist that are trained to estimate radioisotope proportions in gamma spectra, few address the eventual need to provide explanatory outputs beyond the estimation task. In this work, we develop two machine learning models for a NaI detector measurements: one to perform the estimation task, and the other to characterize the first model’s ability to provide reasonable estimates. To ensure the first model exhibits a behavior that can be characterized by the second model, the first model is trained using a custom, semi-supervised loss function which constrains proportion estimates to be explainable in terms of a spectral reconstruction. The second auxiliary model is an out-of-distribution detection function (a type of meta-model) leveraging the proportion estimates of the first model to identify when a spectrum is sufficiently unique from the training domain and thus is out-of-scope for the model. In demonstrating the efficacy of this approach, we encourage the use of meta-models to better explain ML outputs used in radiation detection and increase trust.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project: Summary Report on Data Analytics Framework

This report summarizes the activities performed under the data analytics Vertex in the Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project funded under laboratory directed research and development at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The data analytics Vertex developed models for associating global or local process parameters, microstructural features, and performance properties of friction-stir-processed 316L stainless steel plates. Statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, as well as generative artificial intelligence approaches, were used to develop the associations between the process-structure-property data streams. These associations formed the basis for predicting global properties of parts manufactured under different process envelopes, providing a basis for predicting performance using data driven as well as physics-informed and physics-constrained approaches. Additionally, the associations were used to predict local process parameters and microstructural features of the product, predictive relationships that have the potential to form the basis of a control framework that could eventually modulate a friction-stir process to maintain product quality.

316L stainless steel↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Preliminary Analysis of ISS Maintenance History and Implications for Supportability of Future Missions

The International Space Station (ISS) enables the study of supportability issues associated with long-duration human spaceflight. The ISS is a large, complex spacecraft that must be maintained by its crew. In contrast to the Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle, but similar to spacecraft that will be component elements of future missions beyond low-Earth orbit, ISS does not return to the ground for servicing and provisioning of spares is severely constrained by transportation limits. Although significant technical support is provided by ground personnel, all hands-on maintenance tasks are performed by the crew. It is expected that future missions to distant destinations will be further limited by lack of resupply opportunities and will, eventually, become largely independent of ground support. ISS provides an opportunity to begin learning lessons that will enable future missions to be successful. Data accumulated over the first several years of ISS operations have been analyzed to gain a better understanding of maintenance-related workload. This analysis addresses both preventive and corrective maintenance and includes all U.S segment core systems. Systems and tasks that are major contributors to workload are identified. As further experience accrues, lessons will be learned that will influence future system designs so that they require less maintenance and, when maintenance is required, it can be performed more efficiently. By heeding the lessons of ISS it will be possible to identify system designs that should be more robust and point towards advances in both technology and design that will offer the greatest return on investment.

Watson, Kevin J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The EUCLID Experiment and Nuclear Data Library Comparisons

The EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project which aimed to reduce compensating errors in nuclear data. One major component of the project was a series of critical experiments, both measuring k eff and various other observables with the goal of using these experiments to constrain 239 Pu nuclear data uncertainties and identify compensating errors. This paper details some of the experiment design and how various nuclear data libraries simulate the EUCLID system, including sensitivities compared to Jezebel.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistically-driven Experimental Design to Improve Reference-free Quantification of Small Molecules by Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

Non-targeted analysis of small molecules and metabolites in unknown, complex samples using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry remains challenging. One of the main bottlenecks is the extensive unannotated regions of metabolomics mass spectrometry data, resulting in knowledge gaps. Small molecule annotation in mass spectrometry data has conventionally relied on reference standards and libraries for compound identification and confirmation, which can constrain compound identification to those molecules already known, thus limiting the ability to discover new knowledge and new markers. Retention time prediction can facilitate and expedite unknown compound identification in non-targeted analysis of complex metabolomics samples. Additionally, accurate retention time predictions can also inform sample mixture design for LC-MS/MS analyses. However, current machine learning-based methods for retention time prediction are typically developed for specific chromatographic platforms and are not generalizable across scales. And while technologies and methods to improve reference-free metabolite identification for more comprehensive annotation of unknowns has received much attention, development of the same for quantitation without reference standards has been much more limited, despite its importance in toxicological, environmental, food safety, forensics, and clinical applications. We believe that a reference-free quantitation strategy that exploits mass spectrometry data already collected for reference-free identification can provide much more insight on unknowns, and move the metabolomics field for more complete unknowns characterization. As such, we pursue two efforts to improve upon current state-of-the-art methods in non-targeted analysis: (1) machine learning-based retention time prediction and (2) statistical design of experiments framework for reference-free quantitation. In this work, we develop and demonstrate (1) a generalizable retention time prediction capability across chromatographic conditions and scales, and (2) a statistical design-based framework for response factor contribution elucidation and reference-free quantitation. Evaluation of our retention time prediction model, PrediToR, showed approximately 24% improvement over current models, and we observed approximately 10X improvement in concentration estimation accuracy from our statistical design-based response factor model over a primarily ionization efficiency-based model. We expect that future efforts to improve upon these new capabilities will further advance non-targeted analysis of small molecules towards truly reference-free metabolomics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining the Higgs potential with neural simulation-based inference for di-Higgs production

Determining the form of the Higgs potential is one of the most exciting challenges of modern particle physics. Higgs pair production directly probes the Higgs self-coupling and should be observed in the near future at the High-Luminosity LHC. We explore how to improve the sensitivity to physics beyond the Standard Model through per-event kinematics for di-Higgs events. In particular, we employ machine learning through simulation-based inference to estimate per-event likelihood ratios and gauge potential sensitivity gains from including this kinematic information. In terms of the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, we find that adding a limited number of observables can help to remove degeneracies in Wilson coefficient likelihoods and significantly improve the experimental sensitivity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗
DOE OSTI2024

DISSIDE: Dynamic In Silico Sample Identification for Discrete Evaluation

DISSIDE uses novel unsupervised learning to select samples that best represent the strongest a priori discrete pattern in a given data set. It further removes major outliers and "noisy" samples that do not fit discrete patterns well or represent outliers in groups below a defined n value. It then estimates the fit and strength of the a priori discrete pattern using both unconstrained and constrained methods for raw and cleaned data

LeBrun, Erick↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecasting of Generators Startups and Shutdowns in the MISO System Based on Random Forest

Solving security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems to plan an economical generation schedule for day-head electricity market has been an important research topic in recent years. Mixed integer programming method (MIP), the-state-of-art approach for solving SCUC problem, is known computationally hard when the number of binary status variables is large. In this paper, a machine learning-based algorithm - random forest (RF), was applied to forecast the startups (SU) and shutdowns (SD) hours of generators, based on historical hourly system condition observations in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) system. The main purpose is to reduce the number of binary status variables, by fixing the SU/SD hours to a narrow range of high confidence. This would significantly reduce the size of the decision space, and therefore speed up SCUC solutions with reduced uncertainty.

Lin, Xinming↗