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At least 433 records · Page 24

In Situ Wind and Turbulence Measurements in a Field of Full-Size Parabolic Trough Collectors

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a promising method for using Solar power for electricity generation with thermal energy storage. One of the primary drivers of structural design costs of CSP collector structures is wind loading. To date, the design of these structures has relied on data from wind tunnels that do not adequately capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. NREL initiated a field measurement campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) powerplant that uses parabolic troughs as solar collectors. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs, providing insights on structural dynamic response, and generating a first-of-a-kind, comprehensive, high-resolution wind-loading dataset available for validating simulations of wind loading on collector structures. The measurements at NSO consist of Sonic anemometers on masts at different heights to characterize the incoming flow and conditions within and above the trough field, in combination with a Doppler Lidar scanning the horizontal plane above the troughs. The wind measurements at NSO have been continuously operating since October 2021 and provide a year-long dataset characterizing wind and turbulence conditions. The structural load measurements start in November 2022 and will complement the wind measurements. In this poster, we present first results of the wind measurement campaign by highlighting days with different atmospheric flow conditions. We identified three main factors altering the flow over the parabolic troughs: Wind speed, wind direction, and the angle of the parabolic troughs. The highest loads are expected when the wind blows perpendicular to the trough rows. In this case, the first rows experience the highest loads and block the subsequent rows, creating conditions with decreased wind speed and enhanced turbulence within the trough field. Also, turbulent length scales change. These affected conditions produce unique load cases on the structures that will be captured by the load measurements. If the wind blows along the trough rows, wind and turbulence conditions are less influenced by the troughs.

concentrated solar power↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven analysis of relight variability of jet fuels induced by turbulence

For safety purposes, reliable reignition of aircraft engines in the event of flame blow-out is a critical requirement. Typically, an external ignition source in the form of a spark is used to achieve a stable flame in the combustor. However, such forced turbulent ignition may not always successfully relight the combustor, mainly because the state of the combustor cannot be precisely determined. Uncertainty in the turbulent flow inside the combustor, inflow conditions, and spark discharge characteristics can lead to variability in sparking outcomes even for nominally identical operating conditions. Prior studies have shown that of all the uncertain parameters, turbulence is often dominant and can drastically alter ignition behavior. For instance, even when different fuels have similar ignition delay times, their ignition behavior in practical systems can be completely different. In practical operating conditions, it is challenging to understand why ignition fails and how much variation in outcomes can be expected. The focus of this work is to understand relight variability induced by turbulence for two different aircraft fuels, namely Jet-A and a variant named C1. A detailed, previously developed simulation approach is used to generate a large number of successful and failed ignition events. Using this data, the cause of misfire is evaluated based on a discriminant analysis that delineates the difference between turbulent initial conditions that lead to ignition or failure. From the discriminant analysis, a compressed sensing algorithm is then applied to help pinpoint the locations of relevant turbulent features. Findings from the discriminant analysis are confirmed with the time history of near kernel properties. Next, a clustering strategy is used to identify ignition and misfire modes. With this approach, it was determined that the cause of ignition failure is different for the two fuels. While it was found that Jet-A is influenced by fuel entrainment, C1 was found to be more sensitive to small scale turbulence features. Finally, a larger variability is found in the ignition modes of C1, which can be subject to extreme events induced by kernel breakdown.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Research tool development for catalyst, catalyst/ionomer, and ionomer characterization above 100°C (CRADA Final Report)

There is a need to develop experimental tools that address the catalyst and ionomer interface under high-temperature proton-exchange-membrane (HT-PEM) operating conditions (dry, >100°C). These conditions mean traditional water-based measurements for membrane and ionomer properties are insufficient; new ex-situ techniques are required to address and characterize expected novel materials. In this project we develop a microelectrode cell for high temperature kinetics and gas transport properties and ex-situ ionomer thin-film characterization under these conditions. We use baseline Nafion and phosphoric-acid imbibed membranes as prototype materials for measuring the membrane/acid/ionomer systems with Pt microelectrodes and demonstrate feasibility of the tools.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Redshifting the Cosmological Constant in Unimodular Gravity via Nonlinear Quantum Mechanics

The cosmological constant problem represents a profound conflict between quantum field theory and general relativity. Unimodular gravity offers a compelling starting point by de-gravitating the vacuum energy of the Standard Model, but this framework traditionally trades the problem of vacuum energy for a fine-tuning of initial conditions, which manifest as a ``shadow" cosmological constant. In this paper, we resolve this initial conditions problem by proposing a novel modification to gravity based on nonlinear quantum mechanics. We introduce specific state-dependent terms to the Hamiltonian, constructed from expectation values of the metric such as the average Ricci scalar. These terms alter the dynamical equations of gravity such that the shadow energy density associated with unconstrained initial conditions redshifts away with cosmic expansion, rendering it negligible at late times. The resulting cosmology is naturally dominated by matter and radiation without fine-tuning. We demonstrate that this significant infrared modification of gravity is consistent with local and cosmological tests of gravity. We comment on the possibility of testing this solution in cosmological measurements of Newton's constant.

Kaplan, David E. [Johns Hopkins U.; Tokyo U., IPMU↗

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Front-Surface Potential of Platinized p -InP Photocathodes Probed by Dual-Working-Electrode Measurements

The front-surface potential (E fr ) of p-InP/Pt photocathodes performing the hydrogen-evolution reaction has been probed under operating conditions using a dual-workingelectrode (DWE) method. The DWE data are consistent with expectations for proposed stability mechanisms for p-InP photocathodes. Specifically, E fr for Pt-modified p-InP adopts a value near the reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE) potential, consistent with kinetic suppression of metallic In 0 formation. The data provide a rapid, operando metric of interfacial catalyst activity, and indicate that E fr for the p-InP/Pt junction is governed by surface catalytic kinetics rather than by the applied back-contact potential (E b ).

Catalysts↗

Will Anthropogenic Warming Increase Evapotranspiration? Examining Irrigation Water Demand Implications of Climate Change in California

Abstract Climate modeling studies and observations do not fully agree on the implications of anthropogenic warming for evapotranspiration (ET), a major component of the water cycle and driver of irrigation water demand. Here, we use California as a testbed to assess the ET impacts of changing atmospheric conditions induced by climate change on irrigated systems. Our analysis of irrigated agricultural and urban regions shows that warmer atmospheric temperatures have minimal implications for ET rates and irrigation water demands—about one percent change per degree Celsius warming (∼1% °C −1 ). By explicitly modeling irrigation, we control for the confounding effect of climate‐driven soil moisture changes and directly estimate water demand implications. Our attribution analysis of the drivers of ET response to global anthropogenic warming shows that as the atmospheric temperature and vapor pressure deficit depart from the ideal conditions for transpiration, regulation of stomata resistance by stressed vegetation almost completely offsets the expected increase in ET rates that would otherwise result from abiotic processes alone. We further show that anthropogenic warming of the atmosphere has minimal implications for mean relative humidity (<1.7% °C −1 ) and the surface available energy (<0.2% °C −1 ), which are critical drivers of ET. This study corroborates the growing evidence that plant physiological changes moderate the degree to which changes in potential ET are realized as actual ET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adsorbate chemical environment-based machine learning framework for heterogeneous catalysis

Abstract Heterogeneous catalytic reactions are influenced by a subtle interplay of atomic-scale factors, ranging from the catalysts’ local morphology to the presence of high adsorbate coverages. Describing such phenomena via computational models requires generation and analysis of a large space of atomic configurations. To address this challenge, we present Adsorbate Chemical Environment-based Graph Convolution Neural Network (ACE-GCN), a screening workflow that accounts for atomistic configurations comprising diverse adsorbates, binding locations, coordination environments, and substrate morphologies. Using this workflow, we develop catalyst surface models for two illustrative systems: (i) NO adsorbed on a Pt 3 Sn(111) alloy surface, of interest for nitrate electroreduction processes, where high adsorbate coverages combined with low symmetry of the alloy substrate produce a large configurational space, and (ii) OH* adsorbed on a stepped Pt(221) facet, of relevance to the Oxygen Reduction Reaction, where configurational complexity results from the presence of irregular crystal surfaces, high adsorbate coverages, and directionally-dependent adsorbate-adsorbate interactions. In both cases, the ACE-GCN model, trained on a fraction (~10%) of the total DFT-relaxed configurations, successfully describes trends in the relative stabilities of unrelaxed atomic configurations sampled from a large configurational space. This approach is expected to accelerate development of rigorous descriptions of catalyst surfaces under in-situ conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Atomic-scale secondary electron imaging for heterogeneous catalysis research

Surface characterization at the atomic scale is essential for understanding the catalytic properties of supported metal nanoparticles. Secondary electron (SE) imaging in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) provides three-dimensional surface topographic information, enabling the characterization of the size, morphology, and distribution of supported nanoparticles. Furthermore, real-time observation of catalyst materials in a gaseous environment would enhance the understanding of catalyst dynamics under operational conditions. Ongoing technical developments in SE-STEM and advancements in computational methods are expected to facilitate atomic-scale surface observations and enable more quantitative and statistical analyses. This progress will not only elucidate fundamental mechanisms at the atomic level but also provide comprehensive and universal insights into catalyst performances. Here, this minireview showcases the recent advancements and research findings in surface-sensitive SE imaging in STEM for the characterization of active catalyst materials.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Probabilistic picture for particle number densities in stretched tips of the branching Brownian motion

Abstract In the framework of a stochastic picture for the one-dimensional branching Brownian motion, we compute the probability density of the number of particles near the rightmost one at a time T , that we take very large, when this extreme particle is conditioned to arrive at a predefined position x T chosen far ahead of its expected position m T . We recover the previously conjectured fact that the typical number density of particles at a distance Δ to the left of the lead particle, when both Δ and are large, is smaller than the mean number density by a factor proportional to , where ζ is a constant that was so far undetermined. Our picture leads to an expression for the probability density of the particle number, from which a value for ζ may be inferred.

Physics↗

Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Recorded by Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC)

This article analyzes data from 2,200 photovoltaic systems collected through the Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC, 2018) to draw conclusions about the measured performance of the systems, how it compares to expectations, and how wide the variation is. The systems range in size from 2 kW to 1,200 kW, with an average size of 229 kW, and were activated in oSPARC between March 13, 2007 and Dec. 16, 2016. Data regarding co-incident insolation and ambient temperature are provided through the oSPARC platform for the population of systems and summarized here. Results indicate that - after correcting for measured insolation, derating for temperature, and correcting for balance-of-system efficiency and degradation as a result of system age - the performance ratio of these 2,200 systems averages 91.7%. Adjusting for known parameters such as age and efficiency, the ratio would ideally be 100%. Thus, the 'underperformance' of this system sample is measured at 9.3% and suggests that as much as 9.3% could be recovered if the systems were caused to perform as expected through optimal operation and maintenance. Efforts to correlate the performance ratio with environmental conditions resulted in very low coefficients of regression, but the method already normalizes for actual site insolation and temperature, which are responsible for much of the site-specific variation. An exemption is air-quality nonattainment areas, where the measured performance of plants averages 86.9% and is consistently lower than the average of 95.9% in areas that are in compliance with air quality standards, likely because of particulate matter such as diesel soot exacerbating the soiling rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Stabilized Hyperfoam Modeling of the General Plastics EF4003 (3 PCF) Flexible Foam

Constitutive model parameterizations for the General Plastics EF4003 low density 3 pound per cubic foot are needed for design and qualification purposes in normal and abnormal mechanical simulations. The material is expected to be deformed in two ways: first during preloading, and second under impact conditions of the system (transient dynamic). All analyses are to be performed at room temperature. The goal is to provide the analysis community a robust constitutive model parameterization to represent the compression behavior of the EF4003 foam from small deformations up to massive compressive deformations when the foam is densifying. It is worth noting the EF4003 exhibits anisotropy in its stress-strain behavior between the rise and transverse directions (See figure 2.8c-d) as well as plateau behavior that is very likely to cause material stability issues, due to the buckling transition, (and has historically done so) when using Sandia’s current workhorse models for flexible foams, Hyperfoam and Flex Foam. A Stability-informed Hyperfoam parameterization procedure is developed and executed to calibrate a hyperfoam model for the EF4003 room temperature, transversely loaded data. A rise orientation parameterization was not attempted due to localization in the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Safety First: Stability and Dissipation of Line-tied Force-free Flux Tubes in Magnetized Coronae

Abstract Magnetized plasma columns and extended magnetic structures with both footpoints anchored to a surface layer are an important building block of astrophysical dissipation models. Current loops shining in X-rays during the growth of plasma instabilities are observed in the corona of the Sun and are expected to exist in highly magnetized neutron star magnetospheres and accretion disk coronae. For varying twist and system sizes, we investigate the stability of line-tied force-free flux tubes and the dissipation of twist energy during instabilities using linear analysis and time-dependent force-free electrodynamics simulations. Kink modes ( m = 1) and efficient magnetic energy dissipation develop for plasma safety factors q ≲ 1, where q is the inverse of the number of magnetic field line windings per column length. Higher-order fluting modes ( m > 1) can distort equilibrium flux tubes for q > 1 but induce significantly less dissipation. In our analysis, the characteristic pitch μ ˜ 0 of flux-tube field lines determines the growth rate ( ∝ μ ˜ 0 3 ) and minimum wavelength of the kink instability ( ∝ μ ˜ 0 − 1 ). We use these scalings to determine a minimum flux tube length for the growth of the kink instability for any given μ ˜ 0 . By drawing analogies to idealized magnetar magnetospheres with varying regimes of boundary shearing rates, we discuss the expected impact of the pitch-dependent growth rates for magnetospheric dissipation in magnetar conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest

Abstract. Accounting for the condensation of organic vapors along with water vapor (co-condensation) has been shown in adiabatic cloud parcel model (CPM) simulations to enhance the number of aerosol particles that activate to form cloud droplets. The boreal forest is an important source of biogenic organic vapors, but the role of these vapors in co-condensation has not been systematically investigated. In this work, the environmental conditions under which strong co-condensation-driven cloud droplet number enhancements would be expected over the boreal biome are identified. Recent measurement technology, specifically the Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO) coupled to an iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer (I-CIMS), is utilized to construct volatility distributions of the boreal atmospheric organics. Then, a suite of CPM simulations initialized with a comprehensive set of concurrent aerosol observations collected in the boreal forest of Finland during spring 2014 is performed. The degree to which co-condensation impacts droplet formation in the model is shown to be dependent on the initialization of temperature, relative humidity, updraft velocity, aerosol size distribution, organic vapor concentration, and the volatility distribution. The predicted median enhancements in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to accounting for the co-condensation of water and organics fall on average between 16 % and 22 %. This corresponds to activating particles 10–16 nm smaller in dry diameter that would otherwise remain as interstitial aerosol. The highest CDNC enhancements (ΔCDNC) are predicted in the presence of a nascent ultrafine aerosol mode with a geometric mean diameter of ∼ 40 nm and no clear Hoppel minimum, indicative of pristine environments with a source of ultrafine particles (e.g., via new particle formation processes). Such aerosol size distributions are observed 30 %–40 % of the time in the studied boreal forest environment in spring and fall when new particle formation frequency is the highest. To evaluate the frequencies with which such distributions are experienced by an Earth system model over the whole boreal biome, 5 years of UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations are further used. The frequencies are substantially lower than those observed at the boreal forest measurement site (< 6 % of the time), and the positive values, peaking in spring, are modeled only over Fennoscandia and the western parts of Siberia. Overall, the similarities in the size distributions between observed and modeled (UKESM1) are limited, which would limit the ability of this model, or any model with a similar aerosol representation, to project the climate relevance of co-condensation over the boreal forest. For the critical aerosol size distribution regime, ΔCDNC is shown to be sensitive to the concentrations of semi-volatile and some intermediate-volatility organic compounds (SVOCs and IVOCs), especially when the overall particle surface area is low. The magnitudes of ΔCDNC remain less affected by the more volatile vapors such as formic acid and extremely low- and low-volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs and LVOCs). The reasons for this are that most volatile organic vapors condense inefficiently due to their high volatility below the cloud base, and the concentrations of LVOCs and ELVOCs are too low to gain significant concentrations of soluble mass to reduce the critical supersaturations enough for droplet activation to occur. A reduction in the critical supersaturation caused by organic condensation emerges as the main driver of the modeled ΔCDNC. The results highlight the potential significance of co-condensation in pristine boreal environments close to sources of fresh ultrafine particles. For accurate predictions of co-condensation effects on CDNC, also in larger-scale models, an accurate representation of the aerosol size distribution is critical. Further studies targeted at finding observational evidence and constraints for co-condensation in the field are encouraged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adapter Signaling Evaluations on EVs [Slides]

In case J3400 and J3400/1 define a basic analog signaling approach for DC charging adapters to communicate over-temperature events to both the EV and EVSE. They also require the EV to implement mitigation and corrective actions in cases where the EVSE does not respond to adapter thermal signals. In this study, multiple production vehicles were evaluated for responsiveness to assess field readiness and ensure consistent performance in accordance with the SAE J1772, J3400 and J3400/1 standards. A series of test cases were developed and executed across different vehicles, using an adapter thermal breakout fixture designed by NLR for evaluations. The results revealed notable variations in behavior: some vehicles expected to comply with J1772 were found to be non-responsive under certain conditions. Additionally, while some EV OEMs appear to align with the J3400 standard, discrepancies exist due to its evolving nature, resulting in inconsistent implementation of the latest requirements. These findings highlight the need for alignment within standards organizations to ensure consistent interpretation, encourage compliance, and reduce potential confusion across implementations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The effects of environmental conditions on eggshell thickness of two North American secondary cavity-nesting birds

Egg hatchability in birds is a critical component of individual reproductive success and is associated with eggshell integrity. Contaminants, such as DDT, can influence eggshell thickness and are known to cause population declines. Moisture content and temperature can also impact eggshell thickness, but the influence of environmental conditions on the natural variation in eggshell thickness in wild populations is not well understood. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and eggshell thickness of Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and Ash-throated Flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens) eggs from 1997 to 2013 on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. We tested whether nesting elevation, temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions influenced eggshell thickness in these two secondary cavity-nesting species, while also looking at eggshell thickness over time. Over the 16 years, nonviable or abandoned eggs were collected, and the analyzed dataset included 330 bluebird eggs and 113 flycatcher eggs. There was a significant increase in eggshell thickness over time for both species. Flycatcher eggshells were correlated with higher temperatures, whereas bluebird eggshells were influenced by an interaction between temperature and drought severity. In drought conditions, bluebird eggshell thickness was positively correlated with temperature, whereas in wet conditions, eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with temperature. Thicker eggshells in drought conditions may be a way of reducing water loss from eggs, which occurs faster at higher temperatures. In the southwestern United States, frequent and severe drought, higher temperatures, and decreases in precipitation are all expected to continue. In conclusion, the structure of eggs will be important to consider regarding how species may or may not adapt to novel conditions or persist in new environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ITER Toroidal Interferometer and Polarimeter (TIP) beam refraction in 3D density profiles

Calculations of the expected refraction of the five ITER Toroidal Interferometer and Polarimeter (TIP) chords are presented for a range of conditions including high-density axisymmetric, ELMing H-mode cases and shattered pellet disruption mitigation cases. The calculations are carried out with a newly developed ray tracing code capable of following TIP’s 10.59 μm laser beams through arbitrary 3D electron density profiles. Using JOREK simulations of ELM density perturbations in a 15MA ITER baseline plasma, it is shown that refraction from ELMs is expected to be negligible. It is found, however, that TIP interferometers will be able to clearly resolve the line-integrated density perturbation from ELMs and contribute to the ITER measurement requirement “14. H-mode, ELMs and L-H mode transition indicator”. Calculations of the expected refraction in a NIMROD simulated shattered pellet disruption mitigation scenario with peak local electron densities of n e = 3.7 x 10 21 m -3 (max line-averaged densities of n avg = 1.3 x 10 21 m -3 ) also show tolerable refraction and it is likely that most, if not all chords, would avoid signal loss. In conclusion, for both axisymmetric and structured plasmas with line-averaged densities in the mid to upper 10 21 m -3 range, values likely present only during disruption mitigation, refraction becomes significant and could limit the ability of TIP to make reliable density measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗