Flight Dynamics Modeling for a Rapid Conceptual Development Environment
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Flight Dynamics↗
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A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center
We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.
Forecasting↗
Three-dimensional seismic characterization and imaging of the Soda Lake geothermal field
Accurate characterization of subsurface geophysical properties and detection of the fault system are essential for geothermal energy exploration and production. The Soda Lake geothermal field is in western Nevada with a complex fault system. Previous seismic characterization only produced a low-resolution, smooth velocity model along with a simple, conceptual fault model. Using optimized correlation-based full-waveform inversion, wavefield-separation-based reverse-time migration, and automatic fault detection techniques, we present 3D seismic characterization for the Soda Lake geothermal field using 3D surface seismic data acquired with Vibroseis sources. Here, we obtain 3D high-resolution velocity, density, and acoustic impedance models, 3D seismic images with different grid spacings, and a high-resolution fault system. Consistency check between the constructed faults and currently active injection and production geothermal wells verifies that our seismic inversion and imaging results and detected faults are reliable. These results can provide valuable information for optimizing well placement and geothermal energy production at the Soda Lake geothermal field.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
An Improved Zhang's Dynamic Water Balance Model Using Budyko-Based Snow Representation for Better Streamflow Predictions
Understanding the water balance of a catchment in relation to its regional climate forcings and catchment characteristics is critical for predicting current and future water resources amid changing climate and land cover. This study intends to improve Zhang's monthly water balance model (a physics-based conceptual hydrologic model) that reflects the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle at the basin level based on regional climate and catchment characteristics. The existing model does not include snow process and has confronted evident limitations in snow-affected areas, which is a critical aspect since snowmelt water has been a significant source of water resources for many regions, especially in the temperate and frigid zones. We introduce a snow module based on surface energy balance and Budyko-limits on melting and combine it with the existing water balance equations. Moreover, monthly parameterization is applied to the model to better explain the time-varying hydrological characteristics of a catchment. The proposed model involves five different monthly parameters, which determine the physical partitioning process of the hydrological cycle, and they are regionally calibrated and validated under Budyko-type constraints. The model is applied to 1,210 basins across the continental United States (CONUS), and the simulated streamflow is compared to the observed data. The proposed model significantly outperformed the original model, improving the median NSE by 31% (from 0.51 to 0.67) and increasing the number of catchments with an acceptable NSE by 58%. The spatial variability of the basin characteristics across the CONUS is also investigated based on the calibrated parameters.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Field Guide to Corralling the Chaos: A Conceptual Framework for Using Models to Guide Opportunistic Field Studies of Natural Disturbances
Watersheds regulate biogeochemical processes and provide ecosystem services to human societies, but disturbances can fundamentally alter these processes across space and time. Determining when and where to sample to capture disturbance impacts in watersheds remains a central challenge. Manipulation studies and long-term monitoring are often constrained by scope, and opportunistic studies often lack pre-disturbance data needed to statistically determine disturbance impacts. We identify a persistent knowledge gap: the absence of a clear, transferable framework to guide opportunistic disturbance research where pre-disturbance data collection is not a feasible option. To address this gap, we present a conceptual framework that intentionally integrates modeling and empirical observation in an iterative, stepwise model–experiment workflow. We demonstrate its application through two contrasting case studies: wildfire impacts on headwater streams using a pre-disturbance preparedness approach, and saltwater flooding impacts on coastal forests using an ‘ex-post-facto’ approach. From these applications, we assess strengths, limitations, and the critical role of team science for transferability across disturbance types and study designs. Broadly, this framework offers a scalable path towards more rigorous, timely, and actionable disturbance science that can inform watershed management, hazard risk reduction, and ecosystem resilience.
Coastal Biogeochemistry↗
TRACE Analysis of the STS Target Flow Loop Conceptual Design
This report documents the efforts to model the conceptual design of the STS natural circulation flow loop using TRACE. The results, summarized in Section 2.1, support the conclusion that the conceptual STS natural circulation flow loop design provides sufficient cooling of the tungsten target and exhibits predictable flow behavior, provided that certain design features and/or operating conditions are used. In particular: A sufficient initial liquid volume fraction is required to avoid dryout of the target flow channels; Inclusion of a pressurizer or bellows volume at the top of the loop is recommended and is capable of achieving steady, non-oscillatory flow and temperature conditions at sufficiently high loop pressure. Section 1 provides a detailed description of the geometry and assumptions used in the model, and Section 2 presents the results for the current flow loop design as well as some investigation of potential design modifications with the goal of enhancing the thermal hydraulic stability of the loop.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
PRA and Conceptual Design
Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.
DeMott, Diana↗
Conceptual design and feasibility evaluation model of a 10 to the 8th power bit oligatomic mass memory. Volume 1: Conceptual design
The oligatomic (mirror) thin film memory technology is a suitable candidate for general purpose spaceborne applications in the post-1975 time frame. Capacities of around 10 to the 8th power bits can be reliably implemented with systems designed around a 335 million bit module. The recommended mode was determined following an investigation of implementation sizes ranging from an 8,000,000 to 100,000,000 bits per module. Cost, power, weight, volume, reliability, maintainability and speed were investigated. The memory includes random access, NDRO, SEC-DED, nonvolatility, and dual interface characteristics. The applications most suitable for the technology are those involving a large capacity with high speed (no latency), nonvolatility, and random accessing.
Recksiedler, A. L.↗
A device model for the tandem junction solar cell
A conceptual device model has been developed to explain operation of the tandem junction cell (TJC) when back contacts only are used. Operation and parameters of the cell are explained by transistor action. Experimental observations are presented which confirm that current is collected for carrier generation in the front uncontacted n(plus) region. The model should be useful as a guideline to optimize the TJC by application of transistor design principles.
Matzen, W. T.↗
The Development and Deployment of Machine Learning Models for Aircraft Engine Concept Assessment
In today's competitive landscape, the effective development and utilization of machine-learning (ML) applications have become crucial across diverse economic sectors. This study presents an outline of the procedure involved in creating and implementing ML models for conceptualizing and evaluating aircraft engines. These models leverage supervised deep-learning algorithms to analyze patterns within an open-source repository containing data on both production and research conventional turbofan engines. The main areas of focus encompass crucial engine parameters like thrust-specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, engine diameter, and turbomachinery stage counts. While the creation of ML models is fundamental for their utilization, ensuring their seamless deployment holds equal significance. To address this aspect, a conversational AI chatbot that specifically focuses on propulsion has been developed. Leveraging natural language processing (NLP) techniques, this chatbot simplifies the deployment of machine learning (ML) models. The comprehensive workflow encompasses several key stages: gathering and enhancing engine data, training and cross validating the ML models, testing and evaluating their performance, and finally, deploying, monitoring, and updating the ML models. By following this systematic approach, the aim is to streamline the development and deployment process of ML models tailored for aircraft engine assessment.
AI Chatbot↗
AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper III: Cosmological Structure and Predictions
This paper develops the cosmological consequences of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I and the emergent geometric structure established in Paper II. After the replication epoch freezes out, the coherent sector occupies a finite spectral band and contains a population of excited states. The relaxation of these excited coherent configurations does not produce coherent radiation; instead, all released energy flows into the incoherent substrate, where the randomizer acts as a rapid phase-scrambling mechanism. This process generates an effectively thermal radiation bath, providing a natural reheating mechanism that requires neither inflaton oscillations nor scalar-field potentials, and can be contrasted with standard scenarios of nonperturbative reheating dynamics. Subsequent symmetry-breaking transitions in the coherent vacuum inject additional radiation, yielding a multi-stage thermal history with well-defined energy transfers. We derive the effective equations of state for each component—the cosmological vacuum, the coherent vacuum, and the radiation bath—and show how their interplay produces an FRW-like expansion. The discrete sequence of coherent-state relaxations imprints a distinctive multi-peaked stochastic gravitational-wave background, whose spectral structure reflects the underlying hierarchy of coherent frequencies. Potential observational signatures in the LISA and mid-band frequency ranges are highlighted, providing concrete avenues to test this replication-based cosmological framework in the context of standard cosmological gravitational-wave backgrounds and LISA-oriented forecasts.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper II: Local Geometry and Metric Structure
This paper develops the geometric sector of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I. Starting from a pre-geometric spectral substrate and a minimal set of replication axioms, we show how coherent self-replicating units generate a spatial adjacency graph whose continuum limit acquires an effective Riemannian structure. The replication dynamics determines a characteristic correlation length that seeds the local metric, while overlap relations among coherent units produce an isotropic neighborhood geometry with an emergent dimensionality $d_{\rm eff}\simeq 3$ across a broad range of replication factors. As replication slows and causal order stabilizes, a limiting signal speed $c_\ast$ appears, providing the basis for the Lorentzian structure of spacetime without assuming a pre-existing light cone. We derive conditions under which the adjacency graph converges to a smooth three-dimensional manifold, describe the transition from Euclidean to Lorentzian propagation, and identify geometric invariants controlled by the replication parameters. This work establishes the geometric and causal layer of the replication cosmogenesis program, bridging the spectral axioms of Paper I to the cosmological dynamics explored in Paper III.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper I: Foundations and Replication Dynamics
We develop a pre-geometric cosmological framework in which existence is identified with a finite amount of unstructured energy possessing vibration as its only intrinsic property. This vibrational substrate occupies an open, bounded spectral interval $(\omega_{\min},\omega_{\max})$, ensuring finiteness of total energy and excluding infinitely stable configurations. The substrate evolves under two fundamental and competing tendencies---excitation, which amplifies coherence, and randomization, which scrambles it. Their balance produces a metastable unstructured regime in which rare fluctuations may form long-lived self-consistent spectral configurations. Because the substrate is finite and subject to competing order--disorder dynamics, no coherent configuration can be perpetually stable. We show that the only mechanism capable of sustaining long-lived organization is a replication instability: a coherent unit may reproduce into multiple offspring according to a general $1\!\to n$ rule. Replication consumes energy from the finite substrate, breaks the metastable symmetry, and induces a discrete notion of event time through the replication tick $\Delta\tau$. Temporal succession is defined through correlation ordering of spectral microstates, producing an intrinsic pre-causal structure. The compactness of the spectral domain imposes minimal and maximal timescales, bounds the internal coherence of emergent units, and limits their proliferation. These spectral constraints serve as precursors for the emergence of geometry, adjacency, and a limiting propagation speed, developed in subsequent papers of this series. Paper I provides the foundational axioms (PG1--PG9) governing the spectral substrate, its metastable dynamics, the formation of coherent units, and the necessity of replication, establishing a fully pre-geometric stage from which causal and geometric structure naturally emerge.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling
The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling
The Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the composite analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulation with P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Limited Source Sensitivity Case.
The Plateau to River (P2R) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by the Central Plateau Cleanup Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. Simulations conducted to support the dose calculations required by the CA are documented in ECF-HANFORD-19-0119, Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case and ECF-HANFORD-19-0120, Contaminant Transport Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
The Development and Deployment of Machine Learning Models for Aircraft Engine Concept Assessment
In today's competitive landscape, the effective development and utilization of machine-learning (ML) applications have become imperative across various sectors. This study presents an outline of the procedure involved in creating and implementing ML models for conceptualizing and evaluating aircraft engines. These models leverage supervised deep-learning algorithms to analyze patterns within an open-source repository containing data on both production and research conventional turbofan engines. The main areas of focus encompass crucial engine parameters like thrust-specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, engine diameter, and turbomachinery stage counts. While the creation of ML models is fundamental for their utilization, ensuring their seamless deployment holds equal significance. To address this aspect, a conversational AI chatbot is constructed, utilizing natural language processing (NLP) techniques, to facilitate the deployment of these ML models. The comprehensive workflow encompasses several key stages: gathering and enhancing engine data, training and cross validating the ML models, testing and evaluating their performance, and finally, deploying, monitoring, and updating the ML models. By following this systematic approach, the aim is to streamline the development and deployment process of ML models tailored for aircraft engine assessment.
Development↗
The Development and Deployment of Machine Learning Models for Aircraft Engine Concept Assessment
In today's competitive landscape, the effective development and utilization of machine-learning (ML) applications have become imperative across various sectors. This study presents an outline of the procedure involved in creating and implementing ML models for conceptualizing and evaluating aircraft engines. These models leverage supervised deep-learning algorithms to analyze patterns within an open-source repository containing data on both production and research conventional turbofan engines. The main areas of focus encompass crucial engine parameters like thrust-specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, engine diameter, and turbomachinery stage counts. While the creation of ML models is fundamental for their utilization, ensuring their seamless deployment holds equal significance. To address this aspect, a conversational AI chatbot is constructed, utilizing natural language processing (NLP) techniques, to facilitate the deployment of these ML models. The comprehensive workflow encompasses several key stages: gathering and enhancing engine data, training and cross validating the ML models, testing and evaluating their performance, and finally, deploying, monitoring, and updating the ML models. By following this systematic approach, the aim is to streamline the development and deployment process of ML models tailored for aircraft engine assessment.
Development↗