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At least 433 records · Page 24

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗

Data Recipes: Toward Creating How-To Knowledge Base for Earth Science Data

Both the diversity and volume of Earth science data from satellites and numerical models are growing dramatically, due to an increasing population of measured physical parameters, and also an increasing variety of spatial and temporal resolutions for many data products. To further complicate matters, Earth science data delivered to data archive centers are commonly found in different formats and structures. NASA data centers, managed by the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), have developed a rich and diverse set of data services and tools with features intended to simplify finding, downloading, and working with these data. Although most data services and tools have user guides, many users still experience difficulties with accessing or reading data due to varying levels of familiarity with data services, tools, and or formats. The data recipe project at Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) was initiated in late 2012 for enhancing user support. A data recipe is a How-To online explanatory document, with step-by-step instructions and examples of accessing and working with real data (http:disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.govrecipes). The current suite of recipes has been found to be very helpful, especially to first-time-users of particular data services, tools, or data products. Online traffic to the data recipe pages is significant, even though the data recipe topics are still limited. An Earth Science Data System Working Group (ESDSWG) for data recipes was established in the spring of 2014, aimed to initiate an EOSDIS-wide campaign for leveraging the distributed knowledge within EOSDIS and its user communities regarding their respective services and tools. The ESDSWG data recipe group is working on an inventory and analysis of existing data recipes and tutorials, and will provide guidelines and recommendation for writing and grouping data recipes, and for cross linking recipes to data products. This presentation gives an overview of the data recipe activites at GES DISC and ESDSWG. We are seeking requirements and input from a broader data user community to establish a strong knowledge base for Earth science data research and application implementations.

data recipe↗

Dynamics retrieval from stochastically weighted incomplete data by low-pass spectral analysis

Time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) provides access to protein dynamics on sub-picosecond timescales, and with atomic resolution. Due to the nature of the experiment, these datasets are often highly incomplete and the measured diffracted intensities are affected by partiality. To tackle these issues, one established procedure is that of splitting the data into time bins, and averaging the multiple measurements of equivalent reflections within each bin. This binning and averaging often involve a loss of information. Here, we propose an alternative approach, which we call low-pass spectral analysis (LPSA). In this method, the data are projected onto the subspace defined by a set of trigonometric functions, with frequencies up to a certain cutoff. This approach attenuates undesirable high-frequency features and facilitates retrieving the underlying dynamics. A time-lagged embedding step can be included prior to subspace projection to improve the stability of the results with respect to the parameters involved. Subsequent modal decomposition allows to produce a low-rank description of the system's evolution. Using a synthetic time-evolving model with incomplete and partial observations, we analyze the LPSA results in terms of quality of the retrieved signal, as a function of the parameters involved. We compare the performance of LPSA to that of a range of other sophisticated data analysis techniques. We show that LPSA allows to achieve excellent dynamics reconstruction at modest computational cost. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of dynamics retrieval by LPSA compared to time binning and merging, which is, to date, the most commonly used method to extract dynamical information from TR-SFX data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Personalized Tucker Decomposition: Modeling Commonality and Peculiarity on Tensor Data

In this paper, we propose a personalized Tucker decomposition (perTucker) to address the limitations of traditional tensor decomposition methods in capturing heterogeneity across different datasets. perTucker decomposes tensor data into shared global components and personalized local components. We introduce an order orthogonality assumption and develop a proximal gradient regularized block coordinate descent algorithm guaranteed to converge to a stationary point. The unique and common representations learned by perTucker reveal intrinsic statistical patterns in data and provide valuable information for a wide range of downstream analytics, including anomaly detection, source classification, and clustering. We demonstrate perTucker’s effectiveness through a simulation study and two case studies on solar flare detection and tonnage signal classification.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture Design Using Force-on-Force Cyber-Physical Modeling

Currently, nuclear power plant physical security systems are highly dependent on air-gaps as a protective measure against cyber-threats. Cyber-physical threats become more likely as advanced cyber-threat capabilities to jump air-gaps transition into common use. Defending against the emerging threat of cyber-enabled physical intrusions is poorly understood. The consequence of these cyber-physical attacks has no quantitative analysis method to inform risk-informed, performance-based cybersecurity approaches. By modifying the physical security simulation tool Dante, cyber-physical threat consequence was able to be analyzed on a notional facility. The results of this analysis are used to design a Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture (DCSA) for the physical security system to produce example resilience measures for this notional facility. A DCSA defines security levels to provide a graded approach for defending plant functions, and security zones for trusted communication between systems. This approach can be applied to real world systems to produce physical protection systems and response measures that are resilient to cyber-physical threats.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Catalogue of geoidal variations for simple seafloor topographic features

A catalogue is presented of theoretical geoidal variations for three types of structural features common to the earth's surface: seamounts, submarine ridges, and submarine trenches. These structures were simulated by simple geometric shapes modeled in three-dimensions. A computer program calculated the potential and gravitational variations over the models. Profile plots of geoidal variations and free-air gravity anomalies are presented over cross-sections of the structures. A ready reference information set is provided for comparison with satellite altimeter data for ocean areas.

Bowin, C.↗

Satellite altimeter measurements of surface wind

Recent analyses of wind speed measurements by the Geosat altimeter showed that the radar cross section is affected by oceanographic factors, particularly by the degree of sea development, which are not directly accounted for in the geophysical model functions (GMF). In the present work, two new GMFs which account for the effects of the actual degree of sea development are proposed. Along with the radar cross section, these models use significant wave height information. One particular version is recommended for applications in oceanographic and climate studies where wind speed (or wind stress) data have to be binned (i.e., averaged over time and/or space intervals). The accuracy of this GMF (overall bias of 0.1 m/s and rms error of about 1.6 m/s) is higher than the accuracy of commonly employed GMFs, while the wave-age-related trend is reduced to a geophysically insignificant level. Finally, the wind speed histograms for the collocated data set are derived and compared with the ground truth data as well as with the histograms yielded by presently known GMFs. It is also shown that the accuracy of altimeter measurements could be increased even further if some additional information on the wave field were available from independent sources (e.g., the dominant wavelength from synthetic aperture radar images).

Glazman, Roman E.↗

Submillimeter and Far-Infrared Dielectric Properties of Thin Films

The complex dielectric function enables the study of a material's refractive and absorptive properties and provides information on a material's potential for practical application. Commonly employed line shape profile functions from the literature are briefly surveyed and their suitability for representation of dielectric material properties are discussed. An analysis approach to derive a material's complex dielectric function from observed transmittance spectra in the far-infrared and submillimeter regimes is presented. The underlying model employed satisfies the requirements set by the Kramers-Kronig relations. The dielectric function parameters derived from this approach typically reproduce the observed transmittance spectra with an accuracy of less than 4%.

Cataldo, Giuseppe↗

Assessment of Numerical and Modeling Errors of RANS based Transition Models for Low-Reynolds Numbers 2-D Flows

In this paper we report the outcome of selected workshops organized as part of the NATO Applied Vehicle Technology (AVT)-313 activity Incompressible Laminar-to-Turbulent Flow Transition Study that focused on assessing the numerical and modeling accuracy of the γ−Reθ and γ transition models coupled to the k−ω Shear-Stress Transport (SST) two-equation eddy-viscosity model. Three different test cases involving nominally 2D flow configurations were selected: flow over a flat plate with two different levels of turbulence intensity at the inlet; flow around the Eppler 387 foil at a Reynolds number of 3×10^5 and angles of attack of 1 deg. and 7 deg. flow around the NACA 0015 foil at a Reynolds number of 1.8×10^5 and angles of attack of 5 deg. and10 deg. The flat plate flow conditions correspond to natural and by-pass transition, whereas the other two test cases include laminar separation bubbles that lead to separation-induced transition. For each test case, the selected quantities of interest include both integral and local flow quantities. Geometrically similar grids with a wide range of grid refinement ratios were generated for each of the test cases to allow the estimation of numerical uncertainties for all quantities of interest selected for this study. Several RANS flow solvers were used, employing common grids with the same boundary conditions and mathematical models. Therefore, it is possible to analyze the consistency of the results, i.e., to check if the intervals defined by the different numerical solutions with their respective uncertainties overlap with each other. Modeling errors can also be addressed for the selected flow quantities that have experimental data available. However, the experimental information available in these cases is not sufficient to guarantee that experiments and simulations are performed with the same settings. Nonetheless, the available experimental data is sufficient to guarantee that modeling errors are significantly reduced with the use of the transition models when compared to simulations performed using only the k−ω SST model.

CFD Modeling↗

EARLY INFORMATION PARAMETER-SET ANALYSIS FOR SATELLITE CLOSE APPROACHES USING MACHINE LEARNING

In spaceflight navigation applications, understanding and accurately applying orbital mechanics by leveraging force models for trajectory predictions will always remain an important aspect in space mission design and operations. In the process of capturing the dynamics and perturbations in the space environment, the force models are not all encompassing in that these models are subject to errors, commonly referred to as process noise. Therefore, in predicting state vectors of space objects such as spacecraft or debris over long periods of time, these errors in the process noise tend to grow over time.

machine learning↗

Improving Convection Trigger Functions in Deep Convective Parameterization Schemes Using Machine Learning

Abstract Deficiencies in convection trigger functions, used in deep convection parameterizations in General Circulation Models (GCMs), have critical impacts on climate simulations. A novel convection trigger function is developed using the machine learning (ML) classification model XGBoost. The large‐scale environmental information associated with convective events is obtained from the long‐term constrained variational analysis forcing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites representing, respectively, continental mid‐latitude and tropical convection. The ML trigger is separately trained and evaluated per site, and jointly trained and evaluated at both sites as a unified trigger. The performance of the ML trigger is compared with four convective trigger functions commonly used in GCMs: dilute convective available potential energy (CAPE), undilute CAPE, dilute dynamic CAPE (dCAPE), and undilute dCAPE. The ML trigger substantially outperforms the four CAPE‐based triggers in terms of the F 1 score metric, widely used to estimate the performance of ML methods. The site‐specific ML trigger functions can achieve, respectively, 91% and 93% F 1 scores at SGP and MAO. The unified trigger also has a 91% F 1 score, with virtually no degradation from the site‐specific training, suggesting the potential of a global ML trigger function. The ML trigger alleviates a GCM deficiency regarding the overprediction of convection occurrence, offering a promising improvement to the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Furthermore, to overcome the black box issue of the ML methods, insights derived from the ML model are discussed, which may be leveraged to improve traditional CAPE‐based triggers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model (ROAMS) v2.0

The Regional Oil and gas Aerial Methane Synthesis model is a tool to convert the results of wide-area, source-resolved aerial methane remote sensing surveys of oil and natural gas infrastructure in a given region into methane emissions inventories (estimates of the magnitude and breakdown of methane emissions from the surveyed infrastructure). The tool leverages databases of source-resolved methane emissions detected in aerial surveys, aerial survey coverage information (which areas were measured and when), data summarizing surveyed oil and natural gas infrastructure and production (derived from third-party databases), as well as state-of-the-art mechanistic emissions simulation tools to characterize emissions too small for the aerial system to see. The regional methane emissions estimates produced by this tool are much more granular in both space and asset type than common satellite- or flux tower-based regional estimates. Unlike other tools for converting site-level measurements into regional emissions estimates, our unique geostatistical approach integrates aerially measured emissions with limited need for statistical extrapolation, which can be highly sensitive to modeler assumptions. As a result, ROAMS-based estimates of regional methane emissions from oil and gas activity are widely viewed as highly credible, as evidenced by the success of Dr. Sherwin's recent paper in Nature.

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Impact of Varying Dark Energy on Future Large-Scale Structure Studies

The cosmos withholds multiple mysteries such as dark forms of matter and energy that are yet beyond human comprehension. In the standard cosmological model, $\Lambda$CDM, the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ is thought to be responsible for the late accelerated expansion of the Universe. However, recent results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) suggest the possibility of evolving dark energy, which warrants further exploration. Future surveys such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map the large-scale structure (LSS) with unprecedented precision, giving us valuable statistical information about the cosmos. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential impact of an evolving dark energy scenario on cosmological parameters constrained by LSS probes, as will be mapped by the LSST. For this, we examine the power spectra of lens galaxies, source galaxies, and cross-power spectra between lens galaxies and source galaxies. The combination of these statistics is commonly referred to as '3 $\times$ 2 points'. For this investigation, we created a set of simulations resembling LSST data and used them to perform cosmological parameter inference in two scenarios: one in which the simulated data is based on the fiducial model and another on evolving dark energy. We then examined the degeneracy between the cosmological parameters and checked for potential shifts in the parametric space when the data contains dynamical dark energy but the modeling assumes $\Lambda$CDM. Our findings indicate that mismodeling the dark energy equation of state can significantly impact parameter inference, particularly affecting the total matter density, $\Omega_m$, and the growth of structures, as represented by the $S_8$ parameter. These results highlight the importance of further exploring extensions of the $\Lambda$CDM model in future LSS studies.

Yaman Acharya, A.↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects

Researchers at New Mexico Tech, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), and other collaborators are developing a methodology to improve characterization of stress in the subsurface by means of a model-based inversion of reservoir engineering data, time lapse seismic measurements, and microseismicity. Historically, various geophysical techniques have been used in efforts to understand the state of stress in the subsurface through direct and indirect imaging of stress sensitive features (faults and fractures) and observations of transient stress related observations (time variant elastic moduli and microseismicity). Standard direct and indirect techniques for seismic fault and fracture imaging suffer from detectability limits due to reliance on high data quality and multiplicity. Variations in effective elastic properties from inversion of high quality seismic (Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP)) data may be used to infer stress near the wellbore through integration with independent experimental characterization of the stress-velocity relationship. Given a sufficiently robust observation network, microseismic emissions may be inverted to characterize focal mechanisms which, together with supporting assumptions and constraints, inform estimates of in-situ stress. While each of these techniques contributes in part to the characterization of stress within limited spatial and temporal domains, no one method provides an unambiguous stress measurement or a predictive capability over a site scale spatial extent. Challenges associated with solution non-uniqueness, measurement ambiguity, and irregular sampling may be greatly minimized through combination of one or more of independent measurements within a common framework in which realistic geological, hydrodynamic, geomechanical, and seismological constituent process models may act as constraints.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Simultaneous inference of equation of state parameters and unknown data errors with uncertainty quantification via hierarchical Bayesian posterior maximization

Equations of state (EOSs) are a key component in running hydrodynamic simulations as they relate the thermodynamic states for the material. The Davis reactants EOS is commonly used for modeling high explosives (HEs), and the EOS model parameters are calibrated using material specific data. The calibrations are often performed with uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference to account for uncertainty in the data and generate ensembles of likely parameters. However, there are relatively few HE data sets to use for calibration and many are historical and lack error information. In this work, we simultaneously calibrate the Davis reactants EOS model parameters and unknown data error terms for the high explosive PBX 9501. To quantify the uncertainty in the models and the data, we use a Bayesian framework for the calibration and compute the hierarchical Bayesian posterior distribution with both a posteriori maximization approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In general, we find that, given our assumptions, the two approaches result in similar calibrated parameters, posterior covariance matrices, and insights about the parameters but that the posterior maximization requires far less computational resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Foundations of machine learning for low-temperature plasmas: methods and case studies

Abstract Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence have proven to be an invaluable tool in tackling a vast array of scientific, engineering, and societal problems. The main drivers behind the recent proliferation of ML in practically all aspects of science and technology can be attributed to: (a) improved data acquisition and inexpensive data storage; (b) exponential growth in computing power; and (c) availability of open-source software and resources that have made the use of state-of-the-art ML algorithms widely accessible. The impact of ML on the field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) could be particularly significant in the emerging applications that involve plasma treatment of complex interfaces in areas ranging from the manufacture of microelectronics and processing of quantum materials, to the LTP-driven electrification of the chemical industry, and to medicine and biotechnology. This is primarily due to the complex and poorly-understood nature of the plasma-surface interactions in these applications that pose unique challenges to the modeling, diagnostics, and predictive control of LTPs. As the use of ML is becoming more prevalent, it is increasingly paramount for the LTP community to be able to critically analyze and assess the concepts and techniques behind data-driven approaches. To this end, the goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial overview of some of the widely-used ML methods that can be useful, amongst others, for discovering and correlating patterns in the data that may be otherwise impractical to decipher by human intuition alone, for learning multivariable nonlinear data-driven prediction models that are capable of describing the complex behavior of plasma interacting with interfaces, and for guiding the design of experiments to explore the parameter space of plasma-assisted processes in a systematic and resource-efficient manner. We illustrate the utility of various supervised, unsupervised and active learning methods using LTP datasets consisting of commonly-available, information-rich measurements (e.g. optical emission spectra, current–voltage characteristics, scanning electron microscope images, infrared surface temperature measurements, Fourier transform infrared spectra). All the ML demonstrations presented in this paper are carried out using open-source software; the datasets and codes are made publicly available. The FAIR guiding principles for scientific data management and stewardship can accelerate the adoption and development of ML in the LTP community.

Physics↗

An adaptable technique for comparative image assessment: Application to crosswell electromagnetic survey design for fluid monitoring

Reservoir integrity stewardship accompanying carbon capture and sequestration considers fluid extraction and reinjection as a risk-mitigating method against overpressuring that could lead to caprock damage and ensuing [Formula: see text] leakage. Crosswell electromagnetics offers a technically viable monitoring method with the spatial volume coverage necessary for reservoir-encompassing pressure management. However, a certain logistic dilemma for deep gas sequestration into saline and thus electrically conductive aquifers is that crosswell magnetic-field measurements underperform in the imaging of more resistive plume bodies, further exacerbated when vertical arrays intersect, as opposed to surround, plumes. Furthermore, comparative synthetic-data plume imaging of such scenarios rates the information content of magnetic-field versus electric-field 3D crosswell layouts for reservoir and infrastructure conditions of a representative pilot site in a coastal area in Florida. The image quality of the resulting plume replications can be ranked numerically through a newly proposed semblance qualifier, appraising the model goodness of fit to a given reference. In contrast to common least-squares measures for goodness of fit, the semblance formulation uses classifying logistic function types, thus enabling a better distinction of predefined anomaly features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

User Directed Tools for Exploiting Expert Knowledge in an Immersive Segmentation and Visualization Environment

Volumetric data sets have become common in medicine and many sciences through technologies such as computed x-ray tomography (CT), magnetic resonance (MR), positron emission tomography (PET), confocal microscopy and 3D ultrasound. When presented with 2D images humans immediately and unconsciously begin a visual analysis of the scene. The viewer surveys the scene identifying significant landmarks and building an internal mental model of presented information. The identification of features is strongly influenced by the viewers expectations based upon their expert knowledge of what the image should contain. While not a conscious activity, the viewer makes a series of choices about how to interpret the scene. These choices occur in parallel with viewing the scene and effectively change the way the viewer sees the image. It is this interaction of viewing and choice which is the basis of many familiar visual illusions. This is especially important in the interpretation of medical images where it is the expert knowledge of the radiologist which interprets the image. For 3D data sets this interaction of view and choice is frustrated because choices must precede the visualization of the data set. It is not possible to visualize the data set with out making some initial choices which determine how the volume of data is presented to the eye. These choices include, view point orientation, region identification, color and opacity assignments. Further compounding the problem is the fact that these visualization choices are defined in terms of computer graphics as opposed to language of the experts knowledge. The long term goal of this project is to develop an environment where the user can interact with volumetric data sets using tools which promote the utilization of expert knowledge by incorporating visualization and choice into a tight computational loop. The tools will support activities involving the segmentation of structures, construction of surface meshes and local filtering of the data set. To conform to this environment tools should have several key attributes. First, they should be only rely on computations over a local neighborhood of the probe position. Second, they should operate iteratively over time converging towards a limit behavior. Third, they should adapt to user input modifying they operational parameters with time.

Senger, Steven O.↗