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At least 433 records · Page 24

S 5 : Probing the Milky Way and Magellanic Clouds potentials with the 6D map of the Orphan–Chenab stream

We present a 6D map of the Orphan–Chenab (OC) stream by combining the data from Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S 5 ) and Gaia. We reconstruct the proper motion, radial velocity, distance, on-sky track, and stellar density along the stream with spline models. The stream has a total luminosity of M V = -8.2 and metallicity of [Fe/H] = -1.9, similar to classical Milky Way (MW) satellites like Draco. The stream shows drastic changes in its physical width varying from 200 pc to 1kpc, but a constant line-of-sight velocity dispersion of 5 km s -1 . Despite the large apparent variation in the stellar number density along the stream, the flow rate of stars along the stream is remarkably constant. We model the 6D stream track by a Lagrange-point stripping method with a flexible MW potential in the presence of a moving extended Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). This allows us to constrain the mass profile of the MW within the distance range 15.6 < r < 55∙5 kpc, with the best measured enclosed mass of (2.85 ± 0.1) X 10 11 M ⊙ within 32.4 kpc. Our stream measurements are highly sensitive to the LMC mass profile with the most precise measurement of its enclosed mass made at 32.8 kpc, 7.02 ± 0.9) X 10 11 M ⊙ . We also detect that the LMC dark matter halo extends to at least 53 kpc. The fitting of the OC stream allows us to constrain the past LMC trajectory and the degree of dynamical friction it experienced. We demonstrate that the stars in the OC stream show large energy and angular momentum spreads caused by LMC perturbation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Improved Convection Parameterization with Detailed Aerosol–Cloud Microphysics for a Global Model

Abstract A new microphysical treatment that includes aerosol–cloud interactions and secondary ice production (SIP) mechanisms is implemented in the convection scheme of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The approach is to embed a 1D Lagrangian parcel model in the bulk convective plume of the existing deep convection parameterization. Aerosol activation, growth processes including collision/coalescence, and three processes of SIP mechanisms, two of which are normally overlooked in atmospheric models, are represented in this embedded parcel model. These microphysical processes are treated with a hybrid bin/bulk scheme and a high spatial and temporal resolution for the integration of the embedded parcel in 1D, allowing vertical velocity to determine the microphysical evolution following the in-cloud motion during ascent. Simulations of an observed case (Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment) of a mesoscale convective system in Oklahoma, United States, with a single-column model (SCAM) version of CAM, are compared with aircraft in situ and ground-based observations of microphysical properties from the convection and precipitation. Results from the validation show the new microphysical scheme has a good representation of the ice initiation in the bulk convective plume, including the known and empirically quantified pathways of primary and secondary initiation, with benefits for the accuracy of properties of its supercooled cloud liquid. The sensitivity simulations and use of tagging tracers for the validated simulation confirm that the newly included SIP mechanisms are of paramount importance for convective microphysics and can be successfully treated in the global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transforming microseismic clouds into near real-time visualization of the growing hydraulic fracture

SUMMARY Microseismic observations during unconventional reservoir stimulation are typically seen as a proxy for clusters of hydraulic fractures and the extent of the stimulated reservoir. Such straightforward interpretation is often misleading and fails to provide a physically reasonable image of the fracturing process. This paper demonstrates the application of a physics-based machine learning algorithm which enables a rapid and accurate fracture mapping from the microseismic data. Our training and validation data set relies on a history-matched geomechanical modelling workflow implemented in GEOS software for the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 1 (HFTS-1) project. For this study we augmented the simulated fracture growth through geostatistical modelling of induced seismicity, so that the synthetic microseismic catalogue matches the main statistical properties of the field observations. We formulated the problem of mapping the actual fracture in the clutter of events to parallel common video segmentation workflows: several past video frames (microseismic density snapshots) are passed through a deep convolutional network to classify whether a given voxel is associated with a fracture or intact rock. We found that for accurate fracture mapping, the network’s input and architecture must be augmented to incorporate the fluid injection parameters (pressure, rate, concentration of proppant, and location of the perforation within the cluster). The error rate for the network reached as little as 10 per cent of the fracture area, while a conventional microseismic interpretation approach yielded ∼300 per cent. Our approach also yields must faster predictions than conventional methods (minutes instead of weeks), and could enable engineers to make rapid decisions regarding engineering parameters (pumping rate, viscosity) in real time during stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Practical quantum computation of chemical and nuclear energy levels using quantum imaginary time evolution and Lanczos algorithms

Various methods have been developed for the quantum computation of the ground and excited states of physical and chemical systems, but many of them require either large numbers of ancilla qubits or high-dimensional optimization in the presence of noise. The quantum imaginary-time evolution (QITE) and quantum Lanczos (QLanczos) methods proposed in Motta et al. (2020) eschew the aforementioned issues. In this study, we demonstrate the practical application of these algorithms to challenging quantum computations of relevance for chemistry and nuclear physics, using the deuteron-binding energy and molecular hydrogen binding and excited state energies as examples. With the correct choice of initial and final states, we show that the number of timesteps in QITE and QLanczos can be reduced significantly, which commensurately simplifies the required quantum circuit and improves compatibility with NISQ devices. We have performed these calculations on cloud-accessible IBM Q quantum computers. With the application of readout-error mitigation and Richardson error extrapolation, we have obtained ground and excited state energies that agree well with exact results obtained from diagonalization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A multi-year short-range hindcast experiment with CESM1 for evaluating climate model moist processes from diurnal to interannual timescales

Abstract. We present a multi-year short-range hindcast experiment and its experimental design for better evaluation of both the mean state and variability of atmospheric moist processes in climate models from diurnal to interannual timescales and facilitate model development. We used the Community Earth System Model version 1 as the base model and performed a suite of 3 d hindcasts initialized every day starting at 00:00 Z from 1997 to 2012. Three processes – the diurnal cycle of clouds during different cloud regimes over the central US, precipitation and diabatic heating associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the response of precipitation, surface radiative and heat fluxes, as well as zonal wind stress to sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – are evaluated as examples to demonstrate how one can better utilize simulations from this experiment to gain insights into model errors and their connection to physical parameterizations or large-scale state. This is achieved by comparing the hindcasts with corresponding long-term observations for periods based on different phenomena. These analyses can only be done through this multi-year hindcast approach to establish robust statistics of the processes under well-controlled large-scale environment because these phenomena are either a result of interannual climate variability or only happen a few times in a given year (e.g., MJO, or cloud regime types). Furthermore, comparison of hindcasts to the typical simulations in climate mode with the same model allows one to infer what portion of a model's climate error directly comes from fast errors in the parameterizations of moist processes. As demonstrated here, model biases in the mean state and variability associated with parameterized moist processes usually develop within a few days and manifest within weeks to affect the simulations of large-scale circulation and ultimately the climate mean state and variability. Therefore, model developers can achieve additional useful understanding of the underlying problems in model physics by conducting a multi-year hindcast experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nemchinov-Dyson Solutions of the Two-Dimensional Axisymmetric Inviscid Compressible Flow Equations [Review]

We investigate the two-dimensional (2D) inviscid compressible flow equations in axisymmetric coordinates, constrained by an ideal gas equation of state (EOS). Beginning with the assumption that the 2D velocity field is space-time separable and linearly variable in each corresponding spatial coordinate, we proceed to derive an in nite family of elliptic or hyperbolic, uniformly expanding or contracting \gas cloud" solutions. Construction of specific example solutions belonging to this family is dependent on the solution of a system of nonlinear, coupled, second-order ordinary differential equations, and the prescription of an additional physical process of interest (e.g., uniform temperature or uniform entropy flow). The physical and computational implications of these solutions as pertaining to quantitative code verification or model qualification studies are discussed in some detail.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

MindSynchro

This report presents the developments and results of MindSynchro project as part of DOE OE FOA 1861. DOE and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have made available to FOA awardees datasets containing years of real historical data recorded from various phasor measurement units (PMUs) which are installed in three large US interconnections: Texas (IC A), Western (IC B), and Eastern (IC C). The main goal of the project, which was successfully achieved, was to develop methods for detection and identification of events which are relevant for power grid operation. Tasks performed for achieving the project goals included data exploration and pre-processing, the development and application of physics-based features, data analysis and labeling based on unsupervised learning approaches, training and testing of DSSL models for classification of events which are relevant for power grid operation, and deployment of solutions to cloud environments. The methods developed in the project can potentially provide relevant benefits to power grid asset owners/operators in general in terms of situational awareness. Two main types of outcomes can be provided by these tools: Identification of specific relevant power grid event types: Semi-supervised ML methods developed in the project can adequately employ not only the relatively scarce labeled data but also the large amount of available unlabeled data to train models for detection of specific event types. Such methods enable the application of trained models for the detection of events in a population of PMUs much larger than that associated to the labeled events. Support in data labeling / label validation: Labels are critical for training of models for identification of specific types of events. However, labeling large amounts of data is a manual and tedious process. This means that such process is error prone and is not scalable. Methods developed in the project, based on ensembles of clustering models, have been successfully employed for turning manual labeling into a scalable process. Accurate identification of specific relevant events can provide the operators with immediate situational awareness that could otherwise require hours or days of analysis from domain experts. We envision that such methods could be initially employed in support of post-mortem analysis of events and, as confidence is gained, they could be employed for online/real-time support, providing, among other benefits, insights for avoiding major events which could happen due to a combination of smaller ones. On the longer term, related methods could potentially be employed to improve protection and control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Growth of accretion driven scalar hair around Kerr black holes

We report that Scalar fields around compact objects are of interest for scalar-tensor theories of gravity and dark matter models consisting of a massive scalar, e.g., axions. We study the behavior of a scalar field around a Kerr black hole with nontrivial asymptotic boundary conditions - both nonzero density and nonzero angular momentum. Starting from an initial radially homogeneous configuration, a scalar cloud is accreted, which asymptotes to known stationary configurations over time. We study the cloud growth for different parameters including black hole spin, scalar field mass, and the scalar field density and angular momentum far from the black hole. We characterize the transient growth of the mass and angular momentum in the cloud, and the spatial profile of the scalar around the black hole, and relate the results of fully nonlinear simulations to an analytic perturbative expansion. We also highlight the potential for these accreted clouds to create monochromatic gravitational wave signals - similar to the signals from superradiant clouds, although significantly weaker in amplitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Deep Learning Parameterization of Vertical Wind Velocity Variability via Constrained Adversarial Training

Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Upward propagation of gigantic jets revealed by 3D radio and optical mapping

Occasionally, lightning will exit the top of a thunderstorm and connect to the lower edge of space, forming a gigantic jet. Here, we report on observations of a negative gigantic jet that transferred an extraordinary amount of charge between the troposphere and ionosphere (~300 C). It occurred in unusual circumstances, emerging from an area of weak convection. As the discharge ascended from the cloud top, tens of very high frequency (VHF) radio sources were detected from 22 to 45 km altitude, while simultaneous optical emissions (777.4 nm OI emitted from lightning leaders) remained near cloud top (15 to 20 km altitude). This implies that the high-altitude VHF sources were produced by streamers and the streamer discharge activity can extend all the way from near cloud top to the ionosphere. The simultaneous three-dimensional radio and optical data indicate that VHF lightning networks detect emissions from streamer corona rather than the leader channel, which has broad implications to lightning physics beyond that of gigantic jets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structurally flexible cloud microphysics, observationally constrained at all scales via ML-accelerated Bayesian inference

We discuss the challenge of developing observationally informed parameterizations of microphysics for use at a hierarchy of modeling scales. Our proposed approach is applicable to any domain that suffers from a two-fold parameterization problem, where physical processes are not resolved at the model scale (the first problem), and those processes are uncertain at any scale (the second problem). For such problems, a physical approach facilitates modeling across scales, as well as systematic observational inference accelerated by machine learning (ML) surrogate models, and quantification of physical uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D Continuous Forcing Dataset from 3D Constrained Variational Analysis at SGP

The continuous 3D large-scale forcing (VARANAL3D) data set derived from 3D constrained variational analysis (3DCVA) extends the conventional constrained variational analysis method by incorporating multiple sub-columns within the analysis domain. This advancement introduces spatial variability into the large-scale forcing fields, thereby enriching the data set’s applicability. The VARANAL3D data set spans from 2004 to 2018 and covers a region of 5˚×4.5˚ domain around the ARM SGP site. The analysis domain is divided into 10×9 sub-columns with 0.5˚ resolution. The 3D large-scale forcing data provides necessary variables to drive and evaluate single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) ,and large-eddy simulations (LES), as well as information for testing model sensitivity to spatial variability of the large-scale forcing data, facilitating more rigorous testing and refinement of physical processes in SCM/CRM/LES.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dual nature of magnetism driven by momentum dependent f-d Kondo hybridization

The intricate nature of magnetism in uranium-based Kondo lattices is a consequence of correlations between U-5 f and conduction electrons. Previously, the source of magnetism has been ascribed to either Mott physics or Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida interaction, both of which are not fully applicable to uranium-based Kondo lattices. Using linearized quasiparticle self-consistent GW plus dynamical mean-field theory, we demonstrate a crossover from incoherent to coherent f - d Kondo cloud in the paramagnetic phase of UTe 2 , USbTe and USbSe. As the transition occurs, we observe an augmented f - d coherence and Pauli-like magnetic susceptibility, with a substantial frozen magnetic moment of U-5 f persisting. We show that momentum dependent f - d hybridization is responsible for the magnetic moments arising from the renormalized f electrons’ van Hove singularity. Our findings provide a perspective to explain the dual nature of magnetism and the long-range magnetic ordering induced by pressure in UTe 2 .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Comment on “Review of experimental studies of secondary ice production” by Korolev and Leisner (2020)

Abstract. This is a comment on the review by Korolev and Leisner (2020, hereafter KL2020). The only two laboratory/field studies ever to measure the breakup in ice–ice collisions for in-cloud conditions were negatively criticised by KL2020, as were our subsequent theoretical and modelling studies informed by both studies. First, hypothetically, even without any further laboratory experiments, such theoretical and modelling studies would continue to be possible, based on classical mechanics and statistical physics. They are not sensitive to the accuracy of lab data for typical situations, partly because the nonlinear explosive growth of ice concentrations continues until some maximum concentration is reached. To a degree, the same final concentration is expected regardless of the fragment number per collision. Second, there is no evidence that both lab/field observational studies characterising fragmentation in ice–ice collisions are either mutually conflicting or erroneous such that they cannot be used to represent this breakup in numerical models, contrary to the review. The fact that the ice spheres of one experiment were hail sized (2 cm) is not a problem if a universal theoretical formulation, such as ours, with fundamental dependencies, is informed by it. Although both lab/field studies involved head-on collisions, rotational kinetic energy for all collisions generally is only a small fraction of the initial collision kinetic energy (CKE) anyway. Although both lab/field experiments involved fixed targets, that is not a problem since the fixing of the target is represented via CKE in any energy-based formulation such as ours. Finally, scaling analysis suggests that the breakup of ice during sublimation can make a significant contribution to ice enhancement in clouds, again contrary to the impression given by the review.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Theory for the Balance between Warm Rain and Ice Crystal Processes of Precipitation in Mixed-Phase Clouds

Abstract Mixed-phase clouds contain both supercooled cloud liquid and ice crystals. In principle, precipitation may be initiated either by the liquid phase or by the ice phase. Ice crystals may grow by vapor diffusion to become snow (“ice crystal process”), forming “cold” precipitation. Equally, cloud droplets, when large enough, coalesce to form “warm” precipitation by the “warm rain process.” Warm rain could be supercooled and freeze as “warm” graupel. In the present paper, a new simplified theoretical analysis is provided to examine the microphysical system consisting of three species of hydrometeor, namely, cloud liquid, “cold ice” (crystals, snow), and “warm rain” (frozen or supercooled). This is obtained by nondimensionalizing and simplifying the evolution equations for the mass of each species. Analytical formulas are given for equilibria. Feedback analysis shows that the sign of the feedback is linked to the abundance of precipitation, with a neutral surface in the 3D phase space. The system’s precipitation amount explodes while in the initial unstable regime, crossing the neutral surface and approaching the equilibrium point that is a stable attractor. Positive and negative feedbacks are elucidated. In a standard case, the cold ice mass is about 1000 times larger than the warm rain mass. To illustrate the physical behavior of the theory, sensitivity tests are performed with respect to environmental conditions (e.g., aerosol, updraft speed) and microphysical parameters (e.g., riming and sedimentation rates for cold ice). Cold ice prevails, especially in fast ascent, due to its low bulk density, favoring slow sedimentation and a wide cross-sectional area for riming. Significance Statement The theory elucidates how the ice phase can prevail in the precipitation from any mixed-phase clouds with supercooled cloud liquid and crystals. The ice phase radically suppresses cloud liquid by riming when active and “wins” the competition against coalescence. This prevalence of ice is shown to arise from the low bulk density of snow. The cloud is viewed as a system of negative and positive feedbacks that prevail in realms of stability and instability in a 3D phase space.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Physical and dynamical characterization of hyperbolic comet C/2017 U7 (PANSTARRS)

Here we present here a dynamical and observational study of the comet C/2017 U7 (PANSTARRS). This comet was discovered in 2017 and found to have a hyperbolic orbit. Our dynamical analysis shows that the object has probably originated in the Oort cloud, however an interstellar origin cannot be discarded. The observations were obtained in 2018 and 2019 using the Goodman High Throughput Spectrograph (GHTS) at the SOAR telescope. We obtained visible spectra covering the wavelength range of 0.5 - 0.9 μm and also images in the SDSS filters system. Both the low-resolution reflectance spectrum and the reflectance spectra derived from the SDSS filters show an atypical band at ~ 0.595 μm. We conducted a comparative study of the colors and reflectance spectra of different small body populations (e.g., comets, Centaurs, and trans-Neptunian objects or TNOs) from the literature and concluded that the spectra and the colors of this comet are atypical, showing only some overlap with those of some known members of the TNOs and Centaurs, within the large uncertainties of the measurements of those populations. It is found that the feature and overall spectral shape can be reproduced by laboratory spectra of kerite, a template for aliphatic-rich hydrocarbons that has been previously identified in NIR cometary spectra absorptions. It is tentatively proposed that the unusual spectral shape is the result of a particle size distribution of dust grains in the coma or on the surface that has arisen due to a low grain ejection velocity from the surface and large nucleus size.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Positronium Laser Cooling via the 1 3 S − 2 3 P Transition with a Broadband Laser Pulse

We report on laser cooling of a large fraction of positronium (Ps) in free flight by strongly saturating the 1 3 S − 2 3 P transition with a broadband, long-pulsed 243 nm alexandrite laser. The ground state Ps cloud is produced in a magnetic and electric field-free environment. We observe two different laser-induced effects. The first effect is an increase in the number of atoms in the ground state after the time Ps has spent in the long-lived 2 3 P states. The second effect is one-dimensional Doppler cooling of Ps, reducing the cloud’s temperature from 380(20) to 170(20) K. We demonstrate a 58(9)% increase in the fraction of Ps atoms with v 1 D < 3.7 × 10 4 m s − 1 . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Glöggler, L. T. (ORCID:0000000301948680)↗