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NASA NTRS1994

SCL: An off-the-shelf system for spacecraft control

In this age of shrinking military, civil, and commercial space budgets, an off-the-shelf solution is needed to provide a multimission approach to spacecraft control. A standard operational interface which can be applied to multiple spacecraft allows a common approach to ground and space operations. A trend for many space programs has been to reduce operational staff by applying autonomy to the spacecraft and to the ground stations. The Spacecraft Command Language (SCL) system developed by Interface and Control Systems, Inc. (ICS) provides an off-the-shelf solution for spacecraft operations. The SCL system is designed to provide a hyper-scripting interface which remains standard from program to program. The spacecraft and ground station hardware specifics are isolated to provide the maximum amount of portability from system to system. Uplink and downlink interfaces are also isolated to allow the system to perform independent of the communications protocols chosen. The SCL system can be used for both the ground stations and the spacecraft, or as a value added package for existing ground station environments. The SCL system provides an expanded stored commanding capability as well as a rule-based expert system on-board. The expert system allows reactive control on-board the spacecraft for functions such as electrical power systems (EPS), thermal control, etc. which have traditionally been performed on the ground. The SCL rule and scripting capability share a common syntax allowing control of scripts from rules and rules from scripts. Rather than telemeter over sampled data to the ground, the SCL system maintains a database on-board which is available for interrogation by the scripts and rules. The SCL knowledge base is constructed on the ground and uploaded to the spacecraft. The SCL system follows an open-systems approach allowing other tasks to communicate with SCL on the ground and in space. The SCL system was used on the Clementine program (launched January 25, 1994) and is required to have bidirectional communications with the guidance, navigation, and control (GNC) algorithms which were written as another task. Sequencing of the spacecraft maneuvers are handled by SCL, but the low-level thruster pulse commands are handled by the GNC software. Attitude information is reported back as telemetry, allowing the SCL expert system to inference on the changing data. The Clementine SCL flight software was largely reused from another Naval Center for Space Technology (NCST) satellite program. This paper details the SCL architecture and how an off-the-shelf solution makes sense for multimission spacecraft programs. The Clementine mission will be used as a case study in the application of the SCL to a 'fast track' program. The benefits of such a system in a 'better, cheaper, faster' climate will be discussed.

Buckley, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2021

The simulation of the impact of the spatial distribution of vegetation on the urban microclimate: A case study in Mostaganem

Increasing vegetation is one of the solutions proposed to mitigate the phenomenon of urban heat islands. The present research aims to study the effect of the spatial distribution of vegetation on the urban microclimate during the summer period. The city of Mostaganem with its Mediterranean climate was chosen as a case study. Based on meteorological data collected on a hot day in July, the study is carried out using the ENVI-met 4.4.5. Scenarios of different vegetation layouts were carried out. Air, mean radiant and surface temperatures are the microclimatic parameters that have been analyzed for each of the scenarios, and in order to study the outdoor thermal comfort, the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) is chosen as the comfort index, it compares the average value of the votes of a large group of people on the thermal sensation scale. The study revealed that tree alignments can have a cooling effect on the city temperature close to 1.2◦C. However, its impact on reducing the surface temperature can reach up to 4 ◦C. The introduction of vegetation on the site had the overall effect of lowering the air temperature and therefore relatively improving the level of comfort compared to the reference scenario. But, in order to reduce discomfort to an acceptable level during the day, vegetation can be simultaneously accommodated by city parameters such as urban form.

Nora Bachir↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dashboard for Marine Energy Site Assessment and Monitoring

The marine energy (ME) industry presently relies upon fragmented site assessment solutions that require high resource expenditure for deployment at each site and do not leverage the wealth of readily available tools and information. A wave energy resource assessment dashboard, currently in development, will substantially improve siting, permitting, operations, and maintenance of ME projects by providing an integrated solution that is a one-stop-shop for a developer’s needs. The Site Energy Assessment and MOnitoring Dashboard (SEAMOD) will be of commercial interest to anyone seeking to deploy an ME project and is easily expandable to include tidal and wind energy site assessments. The integrated dashboard is being developed using state-of-the-art database and cloud computing methods and data-assimilative modeling tools that can be coupled with low-cost, rapidly deployable wave buoys and environmental sensing hardware. The combined software and hardware dashboard will reduce wave energy site characterization and wave climate monitoring costs by more than 60 percent and provide assessments that meet international industry standards. To realize a thriving global ME industry, the physical environment at a potential deployment site must be understood, not only for resource characterization, but also for optimization of device and power conversion performance. SEAMOD directly addresses these needs with a commercially marketable product. SEAMOD is a low-cost solution that provides comprehensive ME resource assessments, baseline environmental monitoring, and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The key technical objectives for Phase I were a series of software development goals, which when implemented with monitoring solutions, produced an initial proof-of-concept low-cost wave energy resources dashboard. In Phase II, the development of the prototype SEAMOD continued. The basic framework employed was the development of a revised dashboard and monitoring tool customized for ME applications by focusing on IEC site assessment and method requirements. Development was focused on the integration of full hindcast metocean products to provide hindcast resource characterization and environmental information. The final integrated dashboard provides a low-cost solution that delivers comprehensive, scalable, industry-standard energy resource assessments and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The integrated dashboard offers visibility of the most recent site modeling, measurements, and historical data. The application and integration of consensus-based standards for wave energy resource assessment, as determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), are crucial for the impact and value of SEAMOD. SEAMOD includes monthly, seasonal, and yearly statistics, as well as the total 30-year record, offering temporal resolution of the IEC parameters to aid potential developers in determining the available wave energy resources in their area of interest.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model‐Based Interpretation of Solute Exports and Carbon Partitioning During Shale Weathering in a Mountainous Hillslope

The weathering of sedimentary rocks in high-elevation catchments influences freshwater quality and the global carbon cycle. While individual biogeochemical mechanisms involved in this process are relatively well understood, quantifying their contributions to solute export and carbon fluxes under natural, transient conditions remains challenging. Here, we implement a numerical multidimensional and multiphase model to simulate coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a shale-underlain, snow-dominated hillslope in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado. The model captures the dynamic interplay between soil respiration, mineral weathering, and climate-driven hydrological forcing, reproducing observed soil CO 2 dynamics, groundwater chemistry, and subsurface flow. Our results reveal that seasonal snowmelt enhances carbonate weathering by promoting the infiltration of CO 2 -rich water to depth, while pyrite oxidation is primarily sensitive to low water saturation that facilitates O 2 diffusion through the regolith. Topography modulates the spatial distribution of shale weathering, as steeper slopes enhance lateral drainage, favoring the delivery of reactants to greater depths. While shale weathering at our site acts as a transient carbon sink, with silicates and carbonates buffering acidity and promoting atmospheric CO 2 consumption (1% of soil-derived CO 2 ), the exported dissolved inorganic carbon is predominantly geogenic (∼73%). Consequently, when accounting for long-term marine carbonate precipitation. The current weathering regime represents a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The oxidation of pyrite and petrogenic organic carbon together release approximately 0.9 mol·m −2 ·yr −1 of CO 2 . Our findings highlight the role of topography, hydroclimate, and the coupling between acid-base reactions in shaping the carbon balance and the solute exports in mountainous critical zones.

carbon cycling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Preconditioned Solvers for Strong Constraint 4D-Var Data Assimilation

The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle using the Gauss-Newton method. The computation of the descent direction is expensive since it involves the solution of a large-scale and potentially ill-conditioned linear system, solved using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method. Here, to address this cost, we efficiently construct scalable preconditioners using three different randomization techniques, which all rely on a certain low-rank structure involving the Gauss-Newton Hessian. The proposed techniques come with theoretical guarantees on the condition number, and at the same time, are amenable to parallelization. We also develop an adaptive approach to estimate the sketch size and choose between the reuse or recomputation of the preconditioner. We demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of our methodology on two representative model problems—the Burgers and barotropic vorticity equation—showing a drastic reduction in both the number of PCG iterations and the number of Gauss-Newton Hessian products after including the preconditioner construction cost.

Gauss-Newton↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dissolution and reprecipitation of amorphous silica in silica Rich shales induces Non-Monotonic evolution of porosity in acidic reactive environments

Advances in sustainable subsurface energy technologies are crucial for meeting our energy and resource needs for a climate-resilient future. Novel strategies to harness subsurface shale reservoirs for recovering valuable metals and for enabling CO 2 storage are influenced by the morphological and mineralogical heterogeneities of these materials. In this context, delineating the interactions of highly acidic solutions such as wet supercritical CO 2 on shales with varying mineralogy is crucial to inform the stability of caprock seal for CO 2 storage and enhancements in permeability for fluid transport, reactivity, and storage. The feedback chemical effects associated with the interactions of acidic solutions on the morphologies and mineralogies of shales have not been extensively investigated. These insights are crucial for assessing temporal changes in the reactivity and the fate of the fluids in subsurface environments. In this study, we investigate the effect of 1M HCl solution on the chemistry and morphology of three different shale samples with varying carbonate, clay and silica contents. An increase in the amorphous content, from 37% to 41.3%, of silica-rich and carbonate/clay lean shale is noted due to reactions with an acidic solution which is attributed to the dissolution of Si-bearing phases such as clays, accompanied by SiO 2 precipitation. In shales bearing high content of clays and carbonates, significant increase in the pore volumes and surface areas are noted. Non-monotonic changes in the micron-scale porosity of silica rich–carbonate/clay lean (e.g., Mowry shale) are noted using in-situ X-ray microtomography experiments. Due to the initial mobilization of silica and dissolution of carbonate/clay phases, the total porosity slightly increases from 6.7% to 10.7% followed by a decrease to similar to 4% caused by SiO 2 reprecipitation. In conclusion, these findings suggest that even though silica is less reactive in acidic environments, the changes in the amorphous and crystalline content due to dissolution and reprecipitation alter the porosity and fluid flow paths.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

LID and LeTID Impacts to PV Module Performance and System Economics: Draft Analysis

This webinar is a technical review of the measurements and causes of BO LID, UV LID and LeTID, as well as modeling their impacts to PV project financial metrics. We will first review how Boron-Oxygen complexes form and detail the range of impacts to PV module power ratings over time and across climates. Similarly, we will also discuss the measurements and extent of UV LID over time and across climates. Then, we will demonstrate a methodology for translating these effects to pro forma cash flow models and their impacts to PV project financial returns and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). We will conclude with estimates of the value of solutions to these degradation mechanisms.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing the Building Sector: A Human-Centered Study Focused on Small/Light Commercial Building Energy Equity

Decarbonization of the building sector is no small feat; buildings account for 40% of primary energy consumption, and fossil-fuel combustion in buildings leads to roughly 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency, electrification and smart technologies are fundamental strategies to reduce consumption and shift away from fossil-fuel use in buildings. This energy transition carries significant societal risks unless the shift is carried out with equity and justice as a top priority. Low-income, vulnerable and communities of color have higher energy burdens compared to affluent populations. Furthermore, systemic racism and historic exclusionary policies have resulted in increased risks (environmental, climatic, economic, and social) to low-income and communities of color, and underserved communities often do not have financial resources for, or access to, advanced building technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy is funding research to characterize and develop solutions to the challenges of equity and justice that complicate the ability of communities to contribute to goals for decarbonization. Our project has a specific focus on small commercial buildings and the businesses that occupy them. Significantly less is known about the burdens and risks these businesses experience or the challenges they face in pursuing decarbonization, or how those are affected by income and race, in comparison to research on energy equity and justice for diverse households. The project team includes the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Arizona State University and Clark Atlanta University. Researchers are conducting semi-structured interviews with small business owners in underserved communities in Phoenix and Atlanta, followed by a survey distributed to the larger community to learn more about the equity and justice issues that communities with different racial, economic, and cultural backgrounds face. Results will help inform an actionable and replicable framework for engaging small commercial building owners/operators to catalyze the reduction of energy burdens and increase equity.

Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Methods Used to Project Regional Climate Change

In the past decade, dynamical downscaling using “pseudo-global-warming” (PGW) techniques has been applied frequently to project regional climate change. Such techniques generate signals by adding mean global climate model (GCM)-simulated climate change signals in temperature, moisture, and circulation to lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from reanalysis. An alternative to PGW is to downscale GCM data directly. This technique should be advantageous, especially for simulation of extremes, since it incorporates the GCM's full spectrum of changing synoptic-scale dynamics in the regional solution. Here, we test this assumption, by comparing simulations in Europe and Western North America. We find that for warming and changes in temperature extremes, PGW often produces similar results to direct downscaling in both regions. For mean and extreme precipitation changes, PGW generally also performs surprisingly well in many cases. Moisture budget analysis in the Western North America domain reveals why. Large fractions of the downscaled hydroclimate changes arise from mean changes in large-scale thermodynamics and circulation, that is, increases in temperature, moisture, and winds, included in PGW by design. The one component PGW may have difficulty with is the contribution from changes in synoptic-scale variability. When this component is large, PGW performance could be degraded. Global analysis of GCM data shows there are regions where it is large or dominant. Hence, our results provide a road map to identify, through GCM analyses, the circumstances when PGW would not be expected to accurately regionalize GCM climate signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulated Feasibility of 3-D Lightning Mapping From Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2-D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3-D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of high-resolution 3-D lightning mapping using a radio frequency (RF)-based network of satellites from low-Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing lightning mapping array (LMA) tools, modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg–Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3-D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high-frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3-D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2024

Simulated Feasibility of 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of implementing a radio frequency (RF)–based network of satellites for 3D lightning mapping in high resolution from low Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing tools of the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg-Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

CubeSpark↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Effects of Rainfall Inhomogeneity on Climate Variability of Rainfall Estimated from Passive Microwave Sensors

Passive microwave rainfall estimates that exploit the emission signal of raindrops in the atmosphere are sensitive to the inhomogeneity of rainfall within the satellite field of view (FOV). In particular, the concave nature of the brightness temperature (T(sub b)) versus rainfall relations at frequencies capable of detecting the blackbody emission of raindrops cause retrieval algorithms to systematically underestimate precipitation unless the rainfall is homogeneous within a radiometer FOV, or the inhomogeneity is accounted for explicitly. This problem has a long history in the passive microwave community and has been termed the beam-filling error. While not a true error, correcting for it requires a priori knowledge about the actual distribution of the rainfall within the satellite FOV, or at least a statistical representation of this inhomogeneity. This study first examines the magnitude of this beam-filling correction when slant-path radiative transfer calculations are used to account for the oblique incidence of current radiometers. Because of the horizontal averaging that occurs away from the nadir direction, the beam-filling error is found to be only a fraction of what has been reported previously in the literature based upon plane-parallel calculations. For a FOV representative of the 19-GHz radiometer channel (18 km X 28 km) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the mean beam-filling correction computed in this study for tropical atmospheres is 1.26 instead of 1.52 computed from plane-parallel techniques. The slant-path solution is also less sensitive to finescale rainfall inhomogeneity and is, thus, able to make use of 4-km radar data from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) in order to map regional and seasonal distributions of observed rainfall inhomogeneity in the Tropics. The data are examined to assess the expected errors introduced into climate rainfall records by unresolved changes in rainfall inhomogeneity. Results show that global mean monthly errors introduced by not explicitly accounting for rainfall inhomogeneity do not exceed 0.5% if the beam-filling error is allowed to be a function of rainfall rate and freezing level and does not exceed 2% if a universal beam-filling correction is applied that depends only upon the freezing level. Monthly regional errors can be significantly larger. Over the Indian Ocean, errors as large as 8% were found if the beam-filling correction is allowed to vary with rainfall rate and freezing level while errors of 15% were found if a universal correction is used.

Kummerow, Christian↗

DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗

NASA NTRS1991

ICADS: A cooperative decision making model with CLIPS experts

A cooperative decision making model is described which is comprised of six concurrently executing domain experts coordinated by a blackboard control expert. The focus application field is architectural design, and the domain experts represent consultants in the area of daylighting, noise control, structural support, cost estimating, space planning, and climate responsiveness. Both the domain experts and the blackboard were implemented as production systems, using an enhanced version of the basic CLIPS package. Acting in unison as an Expert Design Advisor, the domain and control experts react to the evolving design solution progressively developed by the user in a 2-D CAD drawing environment. A Geometry Interpreter maps each drawing action taken by the user to real world objects, such as spaces, walls, windows, and doors. These objects, endowed with geometric and nongeometric attributes, are stored as frames in a semantic network. Object descriptions are derived partly from the geometry of the drawing environment and partly from knowledge bases containing prototypical, generalized information about the building type and site conditions under consideration.

Pohl, Jens↗

NASA NTRS2016

Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

system dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Assessment of the Capability of Satellite Precipitation Products to Retrieve Landslide-Triggering Extreme Rainfall Events

Rainfall-induced landsliding is a global and systemic hazard that is likely to increase with the projections of increased frequency of extreme precipitation with current climate change. However, our ability to understand and mitigate landslide risk is strongly limited by the availability of relevant rainfall measurements in many landslide prone areas. In the last decade, global satellite multisensor precipitation products (SMPP) have been proposed as a solution, but very few studies have assessed their ability to adequately characterize rainfall events triggering landsliding. Here, we address this issue by testing the rainfall pattern retrieved by two SMPPs (IMERG and GSMaP) and one hybrid product [Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP)] against a large, global database of 20 comprehensive landslide inventories associated with well-identified storm events. We found that, after converting total rainfall amounts to an anomaly relative to the 10-yr return rainfall R*, the three products do retrieve the largest anomaly (of the last 20 years) during the major landslide event for many cases. However, the degree of spatial collocation of R* and landsliding varies from case to case and across products, and we often retrieved R* > 1 in years without reported landsliding. In addition, the few (four) landslide events caused by short and localized storms are most often undetected. We also show that, in at least five cases, the SMPP’s spatial pattern of rainfall anomaly matches landsliding less well than does ground-based radar rainfall pattern or lightning maps, underlining the limited accuracy of the SMPPs. We conclude on some potential avenues to improve SMPPs’ retrieval and their relation to landsliding.

Extreme events↗

DOE OSTI2022

A multistage distributionally robust optimization approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty

This paper investigates a Multistage Distributionally Robust Optimization (MDRO) approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty. The MDRO is formed by creating sets of conditional distributions (called conditional ambiguity sets) on a finite scenario tree. The distributions in the conditional ambiguity sets remain close to a nominal conditional distribution according a ø-divergence (e.g., Kullback-Leibler divergence, Hellinger distance, Burg entropy, etc.). Here, the paper discusses a decomposition algorithm to solve the resulting MDRO with ø-divergences, which uses the dual formulation and solves only linear subproblems instead of convex ones. Some properties of the algorithm such as generating feasible policies and valid upper/lower bounds are established. The paper then applies the modeling and solution techniques to allocate water in a rapidly-developing area of Tucson, Arizona. Tucson, like many arid and semi-arid regions around the world, faces considerable uncertainty in its ability to provide water for its citizens in the future. The primary sources of uncertainty in the Tucson region include (1) unpredictable population growth, (2) the availability of water from the Colorado River, and (3) the effects of climate variability on water consumption. This paper integrates forecasts for all these sources of uncertainty into a single optimization model for robust and sustainable water allocation. Then, it uses this model to analyze the value of constructing additional treatment facilities to reduce future water shortages. The results indicate that the MDRO approach can be very valuable for water managers by providing insights to minimize their risks and help them plan for the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations

Abstract. Climate model output emulation has long been attempted to support impact research, mainly to fill in gaps in the scenario space. Given the computational cost of running coupled earth system models (ESMs), which are usually the domain of supercomputers and require on the order of days to weeks to complete a century-long simulation, only a handful of different scenarios are usually chosen to externally force ESM simulations. An effective emulator, able to run on standard computers in times of the order of minutes rather than days could therefore be used to derive climate information under scenarios that were not run by ESMs. Lately, the necessity of accounting for internal variability has also made the availability of initial-condition ensembles, under a specific scenario, important, further increasing the computational demand. At least so far, emulators have been limited to simplified ESM-like output, either seasonal, annual, or decadal averages of basic quantities, like temperature and precipitation, often emulated independently of one another. With this work, we propose a more comprehensive solution to ESM output emulation. Our emulator, STITCHES, uses existing archives of earth system models' (ESMs) scenario experiments to construct ESM-like output under new scenarios or enrich existing initial-condition ensembles, which is what other emulators also aim to do. Importantly, however, STITCHES' output has the same characteristics of the ESM output it sets out to emulate: multivariate, spatially resolved, and high frequency, representing both the forced component and the internal variability around it. STITCHES extends the idea of time sampling – according to which climate outcomes are stratified by the global warming level at which they manifest themselves, irrespective of the scenario and time at which they occur – to the construction of a continuous history of ESM-like output over the whole 21st century, consistent with a 21st-century trajectory of global surface air temperature (GSAT) derived from the scenario that has been chosen as the target of the emulation. STITCHES does so by first splitting the target GSAT trajectory into decade-long windows, then matching each window in turn to a decade-long window within an existing model simulation from the available scenario runs according to its proximity to the target in absolute size of the temperature anomaly and its rate of change. A look-up table is therefore created of a sequence of existing experiment–time-window combinations that, when stitched together, create a GSAT trajectory “similar” to the target. Importantly, we can then stitch together much more than GSAT from these windows, i.e., any output that the ESM has saved for these existing experiment–time-window combinations, at any frequency and spatial scale available in its archive. We show that the stitching does not introduce artifacts in the great majority of cases (we look at temperature and precipitation at monthly frequency and on the native grid of the ESM and at an index of ENSO activity, the Southern Oscillation Index). This is true even if the criteria for the identification of the decades to be stitched together are chosen to work for a smoothed time series of annual GSAT, a result we expect given the larger amount of noise affecting most other variables at finer spatial scales and higher frequencies, which therefore are more “forgiving” of the stitching. We successfully test the method's performance over many ESMs and scenarios. Only a few exceptions surface, but these less-than-optimal outcomes are always associated with a scarcity of the archived simulations from which we can gather the decade-long windows that form the building blocks of the emulated time series. In the great majority of cases, STITCHES' performance is satisfactory according to metrics that reward consistency in trends, interannual and inter-ensemble variance, and autocorrelation structure of the time series stitched together. The method therefore can be used to create ESM-like output according to new scenarios, on the basis of a trajectory of GSAT produced according to that scenario, which could be easily obtained by a simple climate model. It can also be used to increase the size of existing initial-condition ensembles. There are aspects of our emulator that will immediately disqualify it for specific applications, like when climate information is needed whose characteristics result from accumulated quantities over windows of times longer than those used as pieces by STITCHES, droughts longer than a decade for example. But for many applications, we argue that a stitched product can satisfy the climate information needs of impact researchers. STITCHES cannot emulate ESM output from scenarios that result in GSAT trajectories outside of the envelope available in the archive, nor can it emulate trajectories with shapes different from existing ones (overshoots with negative derivative, for example). Therefore, the size and characteristics of the available archives of ESM output are the principal limitations for STITCHES' deployment. Thus, we argue for the possibility of designing scenario experiments within, for example, the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project according to new principles, relieved of the need to produce a number of similar trajectories that vary only in radiative forcing strength but more strategically covering the space of temperature anomalies and rates of change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗