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Major activities for this project consisted of three related elements: Comparing results using statistical downscaling to the dynamical downscaling performed by the UCLA (Dr. Alex Hall) team in the proposal Developing statistical downscaling methods for wind and near-surface humidity Evaluating differences in extremes across downscaling methods.
Building energy codes focus on building design, construction and renovation and have significantly increased building efficiency since the first national energy code was published in 1975. Most jurisdictions have energy codes based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (hereto referred to as Standard 90.1) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Compliance options available in these model energy codes include a prescriptive path, whole building performance paths – including IECC Total Building Performance (TBP), Standard 90.1 Energy Cost Budget (ECB) method and Performance Rating Method (PRM) – and system performance paths for envelope and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems. Building performance standard (BPS) policies are an emerging policy tool used by jurisdictions to reduce the operational energy use or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the existing commercial building stock. BPS policies vary widely between jurisdictions and are tailored to each location’s climate and energy goals. Intuitively, projects that met a recent edition of the energy code should comply with the BPS targets.
Building energy codes focus on building design, construction and renovation and have significantly increased building efficiency since the first national energy code was published in 1975. Most jurisdictions have energy codes based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (hereto referred to as Standard 90.1) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Compliance options available in these model energy codes include a prescriptive path, whole building performance paths – including IECC Total Building Performance (TBP), Standard 90.1 Energy Cost Budget (ECB) method and Performance Rating Method (PRM) – and system performance paths for envelope and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems. Building performance standard (BPS) policies are an emerging policy tool used by jurisdictions to reduce the operational energy use or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the existing commercial building stock. BPS policies vary widely between jurisdictions and are tailored to each location’s climate and energy goals. Intuitively, projects that met a recent edition of the energy code should comply with the BPS targets. However, some new buildings may struggle with meeting the BPS for the following reasons: 1. Energy codes focus on the design of the building and its projected ability to perform efficiently, while BPS compliance is dependent on the actual ongoing performance of the building, considering variables like occupancy, operation, and maintenance. 2. There are significant differences in the methodologies used to determine BPS compliance versus code compliance, including how each handles compliance metrics, handling of building amenities, and renewable energy generation. 3. The prescriptive compliance path in the energy code is based on performance of individual building components, as opposed to the performance compliance path which accounts for holistic building design strategies and interdependent building systems. This can result in a significant variability in post-occupancy performance for buildings built using the prescriptive path. Designs on the lower end of the permitted efficiency range may struggle with meeting the BPS.
The NASA Student Airborne Science Activation (SaSa) for Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs) held its inaugural summer research program for early career undergraduates interested in the Geosciences. SaSa is a NASA Science Activation funded 8-week summer internship program. Twenty-four first- and second-year undergraduates from MSIs across the U.S. participated in the summer program - June 6 to July 29, 2022. Students had the opportunity to gain hands-on research experience in all components of an airborne science campaign including flying on-board a NASA research aircraft to collect atmospheric measurements. Students conducted independent research projects related to the atmosphere, ocean, and geosciences that feed into NASA’s broader Earth Science Division’s and Decadal Survey goals using air quality, meteorological, and oceanic measurements from surface, airborne, and satellite-based observations. The program split its time between partner institution, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Wallops Island, Virginia. Students also made site visits at partner institutions, including: Hampton University, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Morgan State University, Howard University, and Coppin State University and attended lectures from visiting faculty and NASA Subject Matter Experts. Students were guided on their research projects by near-peer graduate mentors, SaSa program leadership, co-Is at partner institutions, and NASA scientists to address two major research themes: 1) how human-caused air pollution has human and environmental implications, and 2) how large-scale meteorological factors influence local weather conditions. Students sorted into research groups, based on sub-discipline areas in the Geosciences, including: “Clouds, Aerosols and Radiation”, “Meteorology and Planetary Boundary Layer”, “Air Quality: Particle Pollution and Trace Gases”, and “Air-Water-Land Interface”. Their research was presented as 3-minute lightning talks and in-person poster presentations at a close-out event at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The students’ inter- and trans-disciplinary research experiences centered in the use of multiple ground, airborne, and satellite remote sensing NASA Earth Science Division assets. Providing a unique experience aligned to recognize the societal benefits that NASA contributes in the areas of resource management, air quality monitoring and policy decisions, energy and weather predictions, and research on the Earth’s climate. The SaSa program aims to increase the number of students from MSIs that identify as underrepresented or underserved individuals in the Geosciences discipline, Earth System Science graduate programs, and the NASA workforce. A summary of the summer research program, educational, scientific, and programmatic outcomes, as well as lessons learned will be presented.
The Multi‐mission Algorithm and Analysis Platform (MAAP) is a collaborative effort between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) to support above ground biomass (AGB) research in an open science framework. MAAP brings together relevant data, algorithms, and computing capabilities in a common cloud environment to address the challenges of sharing and processing data from field, airborne and satellite measurements. MAAP was publicly released in October 2021, providing computing capabilities co-located with the data, a collaborative coding and analysis environment, and a set of interoperable tools and algorithms developed to support the estimation and visualization of data. MAAP has allowed scientists from both North America and Europe to collaborate on the generation and analysis/visualization of data derived from multiple, discipline-adjacent missions in an open, collaborative environment that has reached beyond traditional scientific investigation. MAAP has been used to support multiple scientific activities. To date, existing LiDAR data from multiple platforms has been calibrated with field measurements and combined for more comprehensive and accurate estimates of above ground biomass AGB; these LiDAR platforms include airborne (e.g. LVIS), the International Space Station (NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), and satellites (e.g. ICESat-2). The current challenge is to effectively and seamlessly combine the aforementioned LiDAR-based data with new data sources such as P-band RADAR from ESA’s upcoming BIOMASS mission, existing ESA Sentinel-1 C-band SAR, and the 30 PB/yr of high cadence global coverage L-band SAR data from the upcoming NASA-ISRO SAR (NISAR) mission. Recent analysis using MAAP merged ICESat-2 and optical data (Harmonized Landsat Sentinel) produced the most comprehensively precise estimate of boreal-wide AGB to date. Another effort using MAAP is the production and open distribution of global comparisons of AGB map estimates, including from ICESat-2 and GEDI, to bolster stakeholder uptake for policy applications. These map estimates will feed into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) database, likely aiding the next Global Carbon Stocktake of the UNFCCC. Furthermore, the biomass retrieval intercomparison exercise BRIX-2 could benefit from the MAAP providing standardized test cases (based on airborne campaign and spaceborne data) allowing the community to develop and apply retrieval algorithms based on these test cases, while forthcoming SAR data training curricula could also use the MAAP as a teaching and learning platform. The MAAP is meeting the challenges inherent in international, open science collaboration and large scale computing with a platform that is entirely open source and cloud native, using open standards for data access, manipulation, protocols, and formats. The MAAP data system consists of a dedicated data store whose data is indexed in an online catalog conforming to established metadata, application programmatic interfaces (APIs), and service interface standards, using an implementation of the open sourced NASA Common Metadata Repository. Federation of user identities allows users from either NASA or ESA to access and consume services from the other using a unified metadata catalog for the data utilized across the ESA and NASA MAAP platforms. Similarly, we are exploring how to increase interoperability to achieve a common approach to packaging, orchestrating and executing algorithms, with interoperable access to data for subsetting, fast browse, and cloud-optimized access, all using interoperable standards such as those from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Designed for interoperability, ESA and NASA utilize a common architecture for the software platform. It provides a cloud-based algorithm development environment (ADE) that enables scientists to develop algorithms collaboratively with access to the MAAP data catalog as well as other data archives. MAAP provides an Eclipse Che-based ADE supporting both Python and R languages, popular in this biomass community. Algorithms developed and containerized within the ADE can be deployed to run to thousands of computational nodes in the MAAP’s data processing system (DPS), dramatically speeding up processing and giving scientists a rapid, iterative turnaround of results. NASA’s implementation of the DPS is based on the Hybrid Science Data System (HySDS) framework, used by NASA flight projects to produce Earth science standard products.
Panelists describe data challenges and approaches in existing projects, data gaps that need to be addressed, and how emerging technology trends (e.g., ChatGPT) may influence data projects in the future.
Renewable energy production, mostly via wind, solar, and biofuels, is central to goals worldwide to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate anthropogenic climate change (IPCC, 2014; Portner et al., 2021). Nevertheless, adverse impacts to natural systems, especially fatalities of wildlife and alteration of habitat, are key challenges for renewable energy production (Allison et al., 2019; Katzner et al., 2019).
This fact sheet provides an overview of four international projects at NREL: the Net Zero World Initiative, the Global Climate Action Partnership (GCAP), the USAID-NREL Partnership, and the Global Power System Transformation Consortium (G-PST).
Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components and the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Science Challenge: While both climate and weather forecast systems have continued to improve due to substantial efforts to improve computational capabilities, observations, and numerical models, the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and this puts a fundamental limit on our ability to make predictions. Forecasts made by high-resolution models initialized with only slightly different atmospheric states can quickly diverge. Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts is essential to adequately understand them and to make the best-informed policy decisions particularly when it comes to hydrology, extreme weather (including extreme precipitation events), and climate.
Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).
Nearly every major U.S. city has committed itself to ambitious climate action goals – for Washington, DC this means a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2032 and carbon neutrality by 2050. In support of these goals, Washington, DC has passed one of the most aggressive and practical climate action bills in the nation—with the Clean Energy DC Omnibus Act, DC became the first city in the U.S. to adopt energy performance standards for existing buildings. DC’s Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) require energy efficiency improvements for all commercial and multifamily buildings that do not meet a sector-specific minimum ENERGY STAR score or equivalent metric, with iterative compliance cycles every five years that will accelerate the pace of whole building retrofits. This paper explores this revolutionary policy framework and uses two data analysis projects that DC conducted to evaluate the potential impact of the BEPS and move towards carbon neutrality. First, we analyze the potential energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions, as well as potential cost impacts, from the implementation of a BEPS policy in DC We then examine the role of BEPS in a carbon neutrality strategy, how BEPS savings iterate over time, and what additional existing building improvements will be driven by the gravitational pull of new building codes on median performance. The paper highlights the benefits and limitations of such data-driven approaches to support policy decisions. Finally, we will review ongoing BEPS implementation, including expected policy directions, critical supportive programs, and lessons learned to date.
Lung cancer risk from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is expected to change significantly by 2050 compared to 2008 due to changes in climate and emissions. Integrating a global atmospheric chemistry model, a lung cancer risk model, and plausible future emissions trajectories of PAHs, we assess how global PAHs and their associated lung cancer risk will likely change in the future. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is used as an indicator of cancer risk from PAH mixtures. From 2008 to 2050, the population-weighted global average BaP concentrations under all RCPs consistently exceeded the WHO-recommended limits, primarily attributed to residential biofuel use. Peaks in PAH-associated incremental lifetime cancer risk shift from East Asia (4 × 10 –5 ) in 2008 to South Asia (mostly India, 2–4 × 10 –5 ) and Africa (1–2 × 10 –5 ) by 2050. In the developing regions of Africa and South Asia, PAH-associated lung cancer risk increased by 30–64% from 2008 to 2050, due to increasing residential energy demand in households for cooking, heating, and lighting, the continued use of traditional biomass use, increases in agricultural waste burning, and forest fires, accompanied by rapid population growth in these regions. Due to more stringent air quality policies in developed countries, their PAH lung cancer risk substantially decreased by ~80% from 2008 to 2050. Climate change is likely to have minor effects on PAH lung cancer risk compared to the impact of emissions. Future policies, therefore, need to consider efficient combustion technologies that reduce air pollutant emissions, including incomplete combustion products such as PAH.
In recent years, incorporating climate change considerations has become an important focus of organizations’ resilience planning and risk assessment efforts, including United States federal agencies. This has led to an increasing demand for higher-resolution and higher-quality climate projection information that is easy to understand for non-expert users. In particular, there is a demand for information about how climate change may affect high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) hazards that are central to risk assessments focused on infrastructure. While national-level resources like the National Climate Assessment provide information on climate impacts for different sectors and regions in the United States, downscaled information with location-specific context is often required for site-level resilience planning. As higher-resolution and higher-quality climate resources continue to be developed at the state level, it is imperative to understand ongoing and planned efforts, as well as key drivers for developing these state-level resources. Based primarily on stakeholder input from climate experts from 31 states, we identify key state-level climate resources, as well as drivers accelerating the development of these resources. We assess the availability of climate change resources, specifically those with information about HILF events that have been developed at the state level and can support users in conducting site-level resilience planning. We identify three key drivers or predictors for the development of climate change resources at the state level: (1) existence of state laws, mandates, Executive Orders, and other state policies, (2) existence of university partnerships; and (3) the makeup of the stakeholder groups (in terms of dominant discipline/expertise) participating in the effort. The diverse state strategies and resources surveyed in this study could support the incorporation of higher-resolution climate information into site-level planning.
The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28degS, 28degS-28degN, 28-60degN and 60-90degN) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within +/-20%of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28degS and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the +/-20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45% and 9-39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model.
The global demand for large-format batteries used in electric vehicles (EV) and battery energy storage is expected to continue as governments call for zero emission policies. Total installed large-scale stationary battery energy storage is expected to increase almost 20-fold in the coming years - from 17 GW installed globally in 2020 to 358 GW projected in 2030. Similarly, light duty EVs sales globally are expected to increase more than 8-fold from 2020 to 2030 - from 3 million units to 25 million units. The expected demand for large-format batteries brings supply chain concerns, and economic opportunities. Domestic reuse and recycling is one potential circular economy solution for large-format batteries. This presentation discusses current U.S. law and regulatory landscape for the reuse and recycling of large-format batteries, and how certain policy frameworks impact reuse and end-of-life management decisions for large-format battery materials.
Abating emissions and reducing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are crucial in avoiding catastrophic climate change. Basalt reservoirs offer suitable CO 2 storage sites and are present onshore and offshore. This study compares the geological, economic and social aspects of CO 2 storage in both domains using two basalt formations from the Republic of Ireland: the Limerick Igneous Suite and the Druid Formation. Offshore reservoirs offer larger storage resources but are more expensive to develop. Nevertheless, both offer gigatonne-scale theoretical CO 2 storage. Reviewing public perception studies on wind energy demonstrates that the commonly held belief that offshore projects face less opposition owing to their distance from communities has been dispelled, while similar studies on carbon capture and removal show no preference for onshore or offshore development. Instead, a general scepticism towards carbon removal is observed, with concerns that it hinders broader decarbonization efforts. The desire of all stakeholders to be involved throughout project development is consistently observed. Lessons from offshore natural gas projects highlight the consequences of failing to engage with local communities. The Republic of Ireland has significant potential to deploy geological CO 2 storage in basalt reservoirs, but policy hurdles such as legal limits on storage volumes must be overcome to reconcile climate ambition and legislative capacity.
The Inaugural Symposium of the Institute for Sustainable Energy and Environment (ISEE) was held in Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia during April 26 – 28, 2023. The symposium addressed issues and challenges in energy and environment and highlighted the use of clean renewable energy to mitigate the adverse effects of fossil fuels and the greenhouse gases it produces. These issues are complex as the involve educating the public that the climate change is real, it is caused by the use of fossil fuels, it requires scientists and engineers to understand the fundamental science in the production and storage of renewable energy, it requires industries to manufacture and distribute the equipment necessary for commercial application of these technologies, it requires policy makers to put together policies and guidelines to make the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies efficient, and it requires social scientists and educators to address environmental justice issues and create a workforce to sustain the transition. The symposium considered all the above issues with a diverse list of speakers from the federal and state government, industrial partners, and experts from science and technology to social sciences and public policy. Speakers from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Department of Energy, universities, and non-governmental agencies discussed the challenges and solutions in Plenary as well as Panel sessions. The talks were recorded with permission from the speakers and the panelists and were put in the ISEE website. The participants included students, postdoctoral fellows, and professors from Virginia Commonwealth University and local area Historically Black College and Universities (HBCU) such as Virginia State University and Norfolk State University. The $5000 fund awarded by the Department of Energy were used to support the participation of students, postdoctoral fellows, and faculty from the HBCU institutions. The technical program the list of participants is provided later in the document.
Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors. In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs. We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.