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At least 433 records · Page 24

Travel Patterns and Characteristics of Elderly Population in New York State: 2017 Update

According to US Census Bureau, the elderly population (individuals 65 years and older) has grown by over a third during the past decade (2010 to 2019), and by 3.2% from 2018 to 2019. It is essential for policymakers and planners to understand transportation issues associated with the elderly to meet their increasing travel demands. These issues include transportation and mobility of the elderly population, factors impacting their travel behavior, and transportation safety. In this study, Oak Ridge National Laboratory was tasked by the New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) to conduct a detailed examination of travel behaviors and identify patterns and trends of its elderly residents. The National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) was used as the primary data source to analyze subjects and address questions such as: Are there differences in traveler demographics between the elderly population and those of younger age groups who live in various New York State (NYS) regions, e.g., New York City (NYC), other urban areas of NYS, or other parts of the country? How do they compare with the population at large? Are there any regional differences (e.g., urban versus rural)? Do any unique travel characteristics or patterns exist within the elderly group? How did these patterns change over time? In addition to the analysis of NHTS data, roadway travel safety concerns associated with elderly travelers were also investigated. Specifically, data on crashes involving the elderly (including drivers, passengers, and pedestrians) as captured in the Fatal Analysis Reporting System database was analyzed to examine elderly drivers and elderly pedestrian travel safety issues in NYS. This study report provides a summary of travel behavior and social-demographic characteristics of NYS elderly residents. These statistics could be used to examine equity issue concerning elderly New Yorkers, as well as to evaluate how well their mobility needs are being met. With a deeper understanding of issues and needs that this special population group is facing, policymakers and transportation planners would be able to make informed decisions on transportation investments and design services that could better address them.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Mass-Energy Compensation Effect of 3$\alpha$ Hamiltonian

The 3α phenomenological model describes the structure of the carbon-12 nucleus as a cluster of three alpha particles. This model includes a pairwise α–α interaction and a three-body force. To fit the three-body potential, the 12 C data are used, while ensuring that the pair potential reproduces the α–α scattering data. Alternatively, the mass-energy compensation (MEC) effect can be used to simulate the effect of the three-body potential by adjusting the mass of the α particle within the effective-mass approach. We demonstrate the MEC effect for the 3α ground state by numerically solving the differential Faddeev equation, in which the α–α interaction is described by the Ali-Bodmer potential. The effective masses of α particles are evaluated for the ground and excited 0 + and bound 2 + states. Here, we demonstrate a coupling between the ground and first excited 0 + states, indicated by an anti-crossing of these energy levels in the energy–mass coordinates. A correspondence between the effective mass and a three-body potential is demonstrated. We discuss the results of the 0$^{+}_{2}$ calculations for various models of the α–α interaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Technology And Pregnant Pigs

One of the interesting things about aerospace spinoff is the way it keeps cropping up in uncommon applications unimaginably remote from the original technology. For example, the pig pregnancy detector. The pig pregnancy detector? City folk may be surprised to learn that there is such a thing-and wonder why. The why is because it is a sow's job to produce piglets and farmers can't afford to keep those who don't; it costs about a half-dollar a day in feed, labor and facilities, and even in small herds that's intolerable. So the barren sow must go. Until recently, the best method of determining pig pregnancy was "eyeballing," daily visual examination over a period of time. The problem with eyeballing is that pregnancy is not evident until well advanced; when there is no pregnancy, the farmer learns too late that he has been feeding a sow that won't give him a litter. Advancing technology provided an answer: the quick, easy-to-use, accurate automatic detector for early evaluation of pregnancy status. Among the most popular of these devices are Scanopreg and Scanoprobe, to whose development NASA technology contributed. Scanopreg is an ultrasonic system which detects pregnancy about 30 days after breeding, long before eyeballing can provide an answer. The companion Scanoprobe is a dual-function unit which not only determines pregnancy but also gives farmers an analysis of a hog's meat-fat ratio, an important factor in breeding. Only a short time on the market, Scanopreg and Scanoprobe have already found wide acceptance among meat producers because they rapidly repay their cost.

Source record↗

The influence of ambient light spectrum (LED, INC, CFL, Xenon…) on the efficiency of perovskite indoor photovoltaic solar cells for Internet of Things (IoT) applications

This record provides a numerical investigation of a MAGeI₃-based perovskite solar cell with the structure FTO/TiO₂/MAGeI₃/Spiro-OMeTAD, evaluated for both outdoor and indoor light-harvesting applications using the SCAPS-1D simulator. Device performance is analyzed under AM 1.5G sunlight and several artificial light sources, including LED, incandescent, compact fluorescent lamp (CFL), flashlight, and xenon illumination. The study reports initial and optimized power conversion efficiencies and examines the influence of absorber layer thickness and bandgap on device performance under different lighting conditions. The results highlight the potential of MAGeI₃-based perovskite solar cells for indoor energy harvesting and low-power Internet of Things (IoT) applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska

Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of Atmospheric Conditions Responsible for an Ozone Exceedance Event in Southeast Virginia on June 15, 2022

On June 15, 2022, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality monitoring site at Suffolk/Holland, a rural site in southeast Virginia, recorded its first ozone exceedance since 2016. An ozone exceedance day occurs when the daily maximum 8-hour average surface ozone concentration is greater than 70 ppb. On this day, it was 75 ppb. This event is also noteworthy due to the rapid increase in surface ozone between 6 am and 9 am EDT as well as the hourly maximum ozone concentration of 82 ppb that was measured at 1 pm EDT. In this analysis, we utilize various observational and model data to determine the atmospheric conditions responsible for this ozone exceedance event. The analysis is conducted in two parts: (1) an evaluation of the accuracy of the GEOS-CF and WRF-Chem model forecasts and (2) an investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the high surface ozone at the Virginia DEQ Suffolk/Holland monitoring site. Comparisons of model forecasted ozone time-height cross sections with measured ozone by lidars from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) at NASA Langley and NASA Goddard reveal that both models forecasted ozone reasonably well near the surface. Model and observational data reveal that an upper-level ridge was present over much of the eastern United States, with a broad anticyclonic circulation near the surface, resulting in north-northeasterly flow over southeast Virginia. Back trajectory calculations using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) and model data suggest that a low-level plume rich in ozone and precursor species originating from the New York City and New Jersey region was transported along the east coast between June 14 and June 15, arriving in southeast Virginia around 6 am EDT on June 15. In the early morning hours, this plume mixed down to the surface, elevating the background ozone mixing ratio as well as the mixing ratios of several precursor species. Other potential contributions are also explored and discussed. Lastly, the authors note that this work represents the analysis of the authors and not the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.

Daniel B Phoenix↗

Big Data Meets Geothermal Exploration (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, Inc. investigated the application of micro-earthquake and ambient noise seismology methods to imaging and characterizing the structural characteristics and hydrothermal flux of subsurface faults. Significant advances in what could be resolved were enabled by two major developments in seismology: 1) the availability of large-n arrays of low-cost seismometers, and 2) the availability of increased computational power and semi-automated data reduction algorithms. In tandem, these advances may improve the signal-to-noise ratio and spatial precision of the data collected and enable higher-resolution characterization of subsurface fracture systems and their spatio-temporal evolution. These tools supported efforts to reduce dry-hole risk and to improve wellfield productivity for geothermal resource development. In particular, two applications of these advances were evaluated: 1) fracture-seismic imaging, which was used to detect ambient emissions from fluid-filled fractures, and 2) reservoir tomography, which used information about travel paths, source locations, and source parameters of micro-earthquakes to identify areas of enhanced permeability. Integration of these methods provided guidance for siting wells and served as prior constraints for reservoir models, informing forecasts of power potential and production and injection strategies aimed at minimizing temperature decline and improving overall resource productivity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

How does urbanization affect CO 2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO 2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km x 5 km annual CO 2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China's central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO 2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO 2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the "2 + 26" cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO 2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Overall, our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An evaluation of meteorological data prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet observations and NAM model outputs

This study presents an example of how outputs of operational and readily-available mesoscale numerical models can be adapted to initialize dispersion calculations within the urban surface roughness layer. Three years of urban meteorological observations from central Washington, DC, are compared against forecast outputs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. NAM wind speed predictions underestimate the observations in light winds and overestimate the measurements in high winds. Average wind directions are consistent. However, an adjustment of the predicted direction of the plume by –20° is needed. The uncertainty associated with this adjustment is large in light NAM wind speed with no evident variation by season. The values of the standard deviation of the wind direction, σθ derived from NAM model outputs underestimate the observations by a small amount (about –1.5 to –2.5°). The results presented here indicate that mesoscale numerical model outputs can provide information adequate for dispersion calculations. However, levels of uncertainty associated with implementation of the suggested procedures increase with decreasing wind speed, causing considerable uncertainty in the implementation of adjustments as low wind speed conditions are approached. Results and recommendations reported here should not be extended to other numerical models or other cities without further testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Say where you sample: Increasing site selection transparency in urban ecology

Urban ecological studies have the potential to extend our understanding of socio-ecological systems beyond that of an individual city or region. Cross-comparative empirical work and synthesis are imperative to develop a general urban ecological theory. This can be achieved only if studies are replicable and generalizable. Transparency in methods reporting facilitates generalizability and replicability by documenting the decisions scientists make during the various steps of research design; this is particularly true for sampling design and selection because of their impact on both internal and external validity and the potential to unintentionally introduce bias. Three interdependent aspects of sample design are study sample selection (e.g., specific organisms, soils, or water), sample specification (measurement of specific variable of interest), and site selection (locations sampled). Of these, documentation of site selection—the where component of sample design—is underrepresented in the urban ecology literature. Using a stratified random sample of 158 papers from 12 major urban ecology journals, we investigated how researchers selected study sites in urban ecosystems and evaluated whether their site selection methods were transparent. We extracted data from these papers using a 50-question, theory-based questionnaire and a multiple-reviewer approach. Our sample represented almost 45 years of urban ecology research across 40 different countries. We found that more than 80% of the papers read were not transparent in their site selection methodology. We do not believe site selection methods are replicable for 70% of the papers read. Key weaknesses include incomplete descriptions of populations and sampling frames, urban gradients, sample selection methods, and property access. Low transparency in reporting the where methodology limits urban ecologists’ ability to assess the internal and external validity of studies’ findings and to replicate published studies; it also limits the generalizability of existing studies. The challenges of low transparency are particularly relevant in urban ecology, a field where standard protocols for site selection and delineation are still being developed. These limitations interfere with the fields’ ability to build theory and inform policy. We conclude by offering a set of recommendations to increase transparency, replicability, and generalizability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CITE 3 meteorological highlights

Meteorological highlights from the third NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 3) are presented. During August and September 1989, research flights were conducted from Wallops Island, Virginia, and Natal, Brazil, and included airborne sampling of air masses over adjacent regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Isentropic backward trajectory calculations, wind vector/streamline fields, rawinsonde data, and GOES and METEOSAT satellite imagery are utilized to examine the meteorological conditions for each flight and to determine the transport paths of the sampled air masses. Some aspects of the chemical signatures of the sampled air are also discussed. During the series of flights based at Wallops Island, Virginia, the flow into the experiment area was governed primarily by the position of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. The large-scale tropospheric circulation switched from primarily a marine flow during flights 1-4, to a predominantly offshore mid-latitude continental flow during flights 5-10. During these later flights, the regional influences of large eastern U.S. cities along with vertical mixing by typical summertime convective activity strongly influenced the chemical characteristics of the sampled air. During the series of flights based at Natal, Brazil, the dominant synoptic feature was the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone which generally transported air across the tropical Atlantic toward eastern Brazil. Pronounced subsidence and a well-defined trade wind inversion often characterized the lower and middle troposphere over the Natal region. Some high-altitude recirculation of air from South America was observed, as was cross-equatorial transport which had come from northern Africa. Biomass burning plumes were observed on segments of all of the flights, the source region being the central and southern savannah regions of Africa.

Shipham, Mark C.↗

Creation of Speed-of-Sound Inject Data for Technical Nuclear Forensics

Technical Nuclear Forensics (TNF) exercises simulate a detonation of a nuclear device within the United States, usually in a city. Speed-of-sound (SOS) phenomenology are the atmospheric overpressure and ground shock mechanical motions that are observed at over-pressure (air-blast and infrasound) and seismic sensors, respectively (Figure 1). Amplitudes of SOS data are related to the explosive yield (Kinney and Graham, 1985; Koper et al., 2002; Bonner et al., 2013ab; Ford et al., 2014, 2021; Templeton et al., 2018; Schnurr et al., 2020). Within the country, the United States Prompt Diagnostics System (USPDS) includes a network of geophysical sensors to capture such SOS signals. During the TNF exercise, the event data will be analyzed by the players who know nothing about the technical details of the source (e.g. location, yield, explosive). Specifically, they will use the Integrated Yield Determination Tool (IYDT) to estimate the yield and height-of-burst or depth-of-burial (HOB/DOB). The IYDT allows the user to measure features on the overpressure and seismic channels, evaluate the consistency of features and jointly estimate yield and HOB/DOB. For these exercises, SOS data are simulated for the location, emplacement and yield of the device and signals are propagated to the observing stations. This document describes the steps undertaken in the simulation, validation, preparation and verification of SOS signals for TNF exercises.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft↗

Independent Market Study: Commercial Hypersonic Transportation

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft↗

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

LatticeAnalytics: Strut-Level Visualization and Inspection of Additively Manufactured Lattice Structures

Additive manufacturing (AM) is revolutionizing the production of custom components with complex internal geometries, essential for high-performance applications in diverse fields such as medicine and defense. These AM parts optimize strength while minimizing weight by utilizing internal lattice structures consisting of large quantities of small interconnected struts. However, the complexity of these structures, combined with the challenges of using X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) data, makes validation of part reliability difficult. This ultimately inhibits the development of novel parts for our collaborating material scientists. Here, we introduce LatticeAnalytics, a novel framework specifically designed for visual inspection of defects in these lattice structures. Our framework offers an end-to-end solution that includes the data management of XCT scans, enables remote access for geographically dispersed teams through a web-based dashboard, and incorporates novel visualizations. Our analysis is facilitated by a coarse alignment between the lattice’s nominal model, a spatial graph, and the XCT data. We employ a simple VR-based approach for fast and rough alignment, followed by an offline registration and identification of the struts. With the nodes and struts aligned and identified in the volume, our framework allows querying of subvolumes containing a single strut at multiple resolutions. This avoids computation over the entire lattice and also allow for easy parallelization of down-stream computations, such as strut-specific metrics. To depict a fast overview of the strut quality, we introduce two innovative visual encodings, crucial for our collaborators’ research in creating novel AM parts: the Contour View and the Roughness Map, which depict critical geometrical and surface features of individual struts in standardized two 2D views. We evaluated the integrated system through expert interviews. The feedback confirms the framework’s practicality and its effectiveness in enhancing current inspection workflows. It solves major bottlenecks for our collaborators, ultimately helping them create novel parts with advanced properties.

Miao, Haichao [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗