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This approach provides the agent with a causal structure, the spreading activation network, relating goals to the actions that can achieve those goals. This enables the agent to select actions relative to the goal priorities.
The success of a landed space exploration mission depends largely on the final landing site. Factors influencing site selection include safety, fuel-consumption, and scientific return. This paper addresses the problem of selecting the best available landing site based on these factors in real-time during autonomous spacecraft descent onto a planetary surface. The problem is modeled probabilistically using Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs provide a means of representing the causal relationships between variables that impact the quality of a landing site. The final landing site is determined via probabilistic reasoning based on terrain safety derived from on-board sensors, available fuel based on spacecraft descent dynamics, and regions of interest defined by mission scientists.
The steady rise in demand for air transportation over the years has put much emphasis on the need for sophisticated air traffic flow management (TFM) within the National Airspace System (NAS). The NAS refers to hardware, software and people, including runways, radars, networks, FAA, airlines, etc., involved in air traffic management (ATM) in the US. One of the metrics that has been used to assess the performance of NAS is the actual delays provided through FAA's Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET). The OPSNET delay data includes those reportable delays, i.e. delays of 15 minutes or more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights, submitted by the FAA facilities. These OPSNET delays are caused by the application of TFM initiatives in response to, for instance, weather conditions, increased traffic volume, equipment outages, airline operations, and runway conditions. TFM initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, rerouting, airborne holding, and miles-in-trail restrictions, are actions which are needed to control the air traffic demand to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance due to the reduction in capacity. Consequently, TFM initiatives result in NAS delays. Of all the causes, weather has been identified as the most important causal factor for NAS delays. Therefore, in order to accurately assess the NAS performance, it has become necessary to create a baseline for NAS performance and establish a model which characterizes the relation between weather and NAS delays.
NASA's Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) project is developing technologies with practical applications that will help to eliminate low visibility conditions as a causal factor to civil aircraft accidents while replicating the operational benefits of clear day flight operations, regardless of the actual outside visibility condition. The paper describes experimental evaluation of a multi-mode 3-D exocentric synthetic vision navigation display concept for commercial aircraft. Experimental results showed the situation awareness benefits of 2-D and 3-D exocentric synthetic vision displays over traditional 2-D co-planar navigation and vertical situation displays. Conclusions and future research directions are discussed.
During Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) training sessions, a large amount of moisture accumulates in the EVA gloves. The glove design restricts the extension of the EVA suit s ventilation/cooling system to the hand. Subungual redness and fingernail pain develops for many astronauts following their NBL training sessions with subsequent oncholysis occurring over succeeding weeks. Various attempts have been made to reduce or avoid this problem. The causal role of moisture has yet to be defined. Methods: To determine the contribution that moisture plays in the injury to the fingers and fingernails during EVA training operations in NBL, the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), with a Portable Life Support System (PLSS) was configured with a ventilation tube that extended down a single arm of the crewmember during the test and compared with the unventilated contralateral arm; with the ventilated hand serving as the experimental condition (E) and the opposite arm as the control (C). A cross-over design was used with opposite handedness for the vent tube on a subsequent NBL training run. Moisture content measures were conducted at six points on each hand with three types of moisture meters. A questionnaire was administered to determine subjective thermal hand discomfort, skin moisture perception, and hand and nail discomfort. Photographs and video were recorded. Measures were applied to six astronauts pre- and post-run in the NBL. Results: The consistent trends in relative hydration ratios at the dorsum, from 3.34 for C to 2.11 for E, and first ring finger joint locations, from 2.46 for C to 1.96 for E, indicated the extended vent tube promoted skin drying. The experimental treatment appeared to be more effective on the left hand versus the right hand, implying an interaction with hand anthropometry and glove fit. Video analyses differentiated fine and gross motor training tasks during runs and will be discussed. Conclusions: This potential countermeasure was effective in reducing the risks of hand and nail discomfort symptoms from moderate to low in two of six subjects. Improved design in the ventilation pattern of such a countermeasure is expected to improve the countermeasure s efficiency.
ISHM capability includes: detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, and user interfaces that enable integrated awareness (past, present, and future) by users. This is achieved by focused management of data, information and knowledge (DIaK) that will likely be distributed across networks. Management of DIaK implies storage, sharing (timely availability), maintaining, evolving, and processing. Processing of DIaK encapsulates strategies, methodologies, algorithms, etc. focused on achieving high ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL). High FCL means a high degree of success in detecting anomalies, diagnosing causes, predicting future anomalies, and enabling health integrated awareness by the user. A model that enables ISHM capability, and hence, DIaK management, is denominated the ISHM Model of the System (IMS). We describe aspects of the IMS that focus on processing of DIaK. Strategies, methodologies, and algorithms require proper context. We describe an approach to define and use contexts, implementation in an object-oriented software environment (G2), and validation using actual test data from a methane thruster test program at NASA SSC. Context is linked to existence of relationships among elements of a system. For example, the context to use a strategy to detect leak is to identify closed subsystems (e.g. bounded by closed valves and by tanks) that include pressure sensors, and check if the pressure is changing. We call these subsystems Pressurizable Subsystems. If pressure changes are detected, then all members of the closed subsystem become suspect of leakage. In this case, the context is defined by identifying a subsystem that is suitable for applying a strategy. Contexts are defined in many ways. Often, a context is defined by relationships of function (e.g. liquid flow, maintaining pressure, etc.), form (e.g. part of the same component, connected to other components, etc.), or space (e.g. physically close, touching the same common element, etc.). The context might be defined dynamically (if conditions for the context appear and disappear dynamically) or statically. Although this approach is akin to case-based reasoning, we are implementing it using a software environment that embodies tools to define and manage relationships (of any nature) among objects in a very intuitive manner. Context for higher level inferences (that use detected anomalies or events), primarily for diagnosis and prognosis, are related to causal relationships. This is useful to develop root-cause analysis trees showing an event linked to its possible causes and effects. The innovation pertaining to RCA trees encompasses use of previously defined subsystems as well as individual elements in the tree. This approach allows more powerful implementations of RCA capability in object-oriented environments. For example, if a pressurizable subsystem is leaking, its root-cause representation within an RCA tree will show that the cause is that all elements of that subsystem are suspect of leak. Such a tree would apply to all instances of leak-events detected and all elements in all pressurizable subsystems in the system. Example subsystems in our environment to build IMS include: Pressurizable Subsystem, Fluid-Fill Subsystem, Flow-Thru-Valve Subsystem, and Fluid Supply Subsystem. The software environment for IMS is designed to potentially allow definition of any relationship suitable to create a context to achieve ISHM capability.
Integrated vehicle health management technologies promise to dramatically improve the safety of commercial aircraft by reducing system and component failures as causal and contributing factors in aircraft accidents. To realize this promise, fundamental technology development is needed to produce reliable health management components. These components include diagnostic and prognostic algorithms, physics-based and data-driven lifing and failure models, sensors, and a sensor infrastructure including wireless communications, power scavenging, and electronics. In addition, system assessment methods are needed to effectively prioritize development efforts. Development work is needed throughout the vehicle, but particular challenges are presented by the hot, rotating environment of the propulsion system. This presentation describes current work in the field of health management technologies for propulsion systems for commercial aviation.
Human error is the subject of research in almost every industry and profession of our times. This term is part of our daily language and intuitively understood by most people however, it would be premature to assume that everyone's understanding of human error s the same. For example, human error is used to describe the outcome or consequence of human action, the causal factor of an accident, deliberate violations,a nd the actual action taken by a human being. As a result, researchers rarely agree on the either a specific definition or how to prevent human error. The purpose of this article is to explore the specific concept of human error using Concept Analysis as described by Walker and Avant (1995). The concept of human error is examined as currently used in the literature of a variety of industries and professions. Defining attributes and examples of model, borderline, and contrary cases are described. The antecedents and consequences of human error are also discussed and a definition of human error is offered.
Recent experience using high definition video on the International Space Station reveals camera pixel degradation due to particle radiation to be a much more significant problem with high definition cameras than with standard definition video. Although it may at first appear that increased pixel density on the imager is the logical explanation for this, the ISS implementations of high definition suggest a more complex causal and mediating factor mix. The degree of damage seems to vary from one type of camera to another, and this variation prompts a reconsideration of the possible factors in pixel loss, such as imager size, number of pixels, pixel aperture ratio, imager type (CCD or CMOS), method of error correction/concealment, and the method of compression used for recording or transmission. The problem of imager pixel loss due to particle radiation is not limited to out-of-atmosphere applications. Since particle radiation increases with altitude, it is not surprising to find anecdotal evidence that video cameras subject to many hours of airline travel show an increased incidence of pixel loss. This is even evident in some standard definition video applications, and pixel loss due to particle radiation only stands to become a more salient issue considering the continued diffusion of high definition video cameras in the marketplace.
Randall initially described calcified subepithelial papillary plaques, which he hypothesized as nidi for kidney stone formation. The discovery of calcifying nanoparticles (CNP) in many calcifying processes of human tissues has raised another hypothesis about their possible involvement in urinary stone formation. This research is the first attempt to investigate the potential association of these two hypotheses. We collected renal papilla and blood samples from 17 human patients who had undergone laparoscopic nephrectomy due to neoplasia. Immunohistochemical staining (IHS) was applied on the tissue samples using monoclonal antibody 8D10 (mAb) against CNP. Homogenized papillary tissues and serum samples were cultured for CNP. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) analysis were performed on fixed papillary samples. Randall's plaques were visible on gross inspection in 11 out of 17 collected samples. IHS was positive for CNP antigen in 8 of these 11 visually positive samples, but in only 1 of the remaining 6 samples. SEM revealed spherical apatite formations in 14 samples, all of which had calcium and phosphate peaks detected by EDS analysis. From this study, there was some evidence of a link between the presence of Randall's plaques and the detection of CNP, also referred to as nanobacteria. Although causality was not demonstrated, these results suggest that further studies with negative control samples should be made to explore the etiology of Randall's plaque formation, thus leading to a better understanding of the pathogenesis of stone formation.
This study investigated the Shuttle Program s belief that Space Transportation System (STS) wiring damage occurrences are random, that is, a constant occurrence rate. Using Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA)-derived data for STS Space Shuttle OV-103, wiring damage was observed to increase over the vehicle s life. Causal factors could include wiring physical deterioration, maintenance and inspection induced damage, and inspection process changes resulting in more damage events being reported. Induced damage effects cannot be resolved with existent data. Growth analysis (using Crow-AMSAA, or CA) resolved maintenance/inspection effects (e.g., heightened awareness) on all wire damages and indicated an overall increase since Challenger Return-to-Flight (RTF). An increasing failure or occurrence rate per flight cycle was seen for each wire damage mode; these (individual) rates were not affected by inspection process effects, within statistical error.
This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of the N2NA Pylon overheat mishap. The contents include: 1) Investigation Process; 2) Bottom Line; 3) Event Description / Damage; 4) Causal Tree Analysis; 5) Significant Observations; and 6) Major Recommendations.
The Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) Project was one of the projects within NASA s Aviation Safety Program from 1999 through 2005. The objective of the ASMM Project was to develop the technologies to enable the aviation industry to undertake a proactive approach to the management of its system-wide safety risks. The ASMM Project entailed four interdependent elements: (1) Data Analysis Tools Development - develop tools to convert numerical and textual data into information; (2) Intramural Monitoring - test and evaluate the data analysis tools in operational environments; (3) Extramural Monitoring - gain insight into the aviation system performance by surveying its front-line operators; and (4) Modeling and Simulations - provide reliable predictions of the system-wide hazards, their causal factors, and their operational risks that may result from the introduction of new technologies, new procedures, or new operational concepts. This report is a documentation of the history of this highly successful project and of its many accomplishments and contributions to improved safety of the aviation system.
Chronic diseases of the prostate such as benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) & chronic pelvic pain syndrome (CPPS) have associated findings of chronic inflammation, despite a lack of causal relationship. Numerous attempts to define an infectious agent responsible for the clinical findings have been inconsistent. The possibility of an infectious agent, that has not been uncovered with routine culturing methods, forms the basis for this study. Serum from 940 healthy Finnish men were compared with serum from 40 Crohn's, 40 path dx prostatitis, & 40 with path dx carcinoma, using an enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA), to detect antigens specific to Nanobacteria(NB) utilizing monoclonal antibodies (Ab) 5/3 and 8D10. This ELISA has not been validated for detecting NB-associated with clinical prostatic disease, yet cross-reactivity with other bacterial species is low. Immunohistochemistry was performed on de-paraffinized prostatic tissue slides, de-calcified with EDTA and stained with the DAKO Catalyzed Signal Amplification kit, employing 8D10 as the primary (target/antigen-detecting) Ab. The mean (plus or minus SD) & median concentrations of NB antigen (U/50 L) were 379.59 (plus or minus 219.28) & 640.00 for patients with prostatitis (BPH) vs 3.31 (plus or minus 3.55) & 2.94 for prostate adenocarcinoma, 1.88 (plus or minus 2.94) & 0.80 for Crohn's disease, & 7.43 (plus or minus 25.57) & 0.00 for patients with no clinical prostatic disease. Unpaired t-tests revealed statistically significant differences between the prostatitis (BPH) sera & each of the other groups with p less than 0.005, but no differences between the other groups themselves. Preliminary studies with immunohistochemistry & 3-D confocal microscopy reveal 16/24 tissue sections + for NB Ag in BPH vs. only 2/22 tissue sections with prostate cancer. The preliminary findings of this serum screening study suggest that NB antigen may be commonly found in the serum of patients with the pathological diagnosis of prostatitis. Preliminary immunohistologic studies, suggest that NB may be found within the gland itself at a higher rate in patients with BPH relative to patients with adenocarcinoma, however confirmatory studies with a more specific ELISA technique, primary cultures, & with larger numbers of patients in a prospective design are required to determine if 1) NB are a causative organism for clinical hyperplastic and inflammatory disease, & if 2) serological testing can be used to discriminate patients with nanobacterial-associated prostatic disease.
A set of Penrose diagrams is constructed in order to examine the large-scale causal structure of black holes with dynamic horizons. Coordinate dependencies of significant features, such as the event horizon and radial mass scale, are demonstrated on the diagrams. Unlike in static Schwarzschild geometries, the radial mass scale is clearly seen to differ from the horizon. Trajectories for photons near the horizon are briefly discussed.
The Tharsis province of Mars displays a variety of small volcanic vent (10s krn in diameter) morphologies. These features were identified in Mariner and Viking images [1-4], and Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data show them to be more abundant than originally observed [5,6]. Recent studies are classifying their diverse morphologies [7-9]. Building on this work, we are mapping the location of small volcanic vents (small-vents) in the Tharsis province using MOLA, Thermal Emission Imaging System, and High Resolution Stereo Camera data [10]. Here we report on a preliminary study of the spatial and alignment relationships between small-vents south of Pavonis Mons, as determined by nearest neighbor and two-point azimuth statistical analyses. Terrestrial monogenetic volcanic fields display four fundamental characteristics: 1) recurrence rates of eruptions,2 ) vent abundance, 3) vent distribution, and 4) tectonic relationships [11]. While understanding recurrence rates typically requires field measurements, insight into vent abundance, distribution, and tectonic relationships can be established by mapping of remotely sensed data, and subsequent application of spatial statistical studies [11,12], the goal of which is to link the distribution of vents to causal processes.
Approximately twenty five years ago a novel proposal was made to explain two of the outstanding cosmological conundrums, namely those of the Horizon Problem and the Flatness Problem of the Universe. These are the fact that widely separated parts of the sky that have never been in causal contact during the evolution of the Universe have apparently the same CMB temperature and the fact that the mean density of the Universe is very close to the critical one, i.e. very close to the density that separates the closed and open models. These coincidences implied that the corresponding initial condition of the Universe must have been set to exquisite accuracy. This novel proposal posted that at these very early times, the energy density of the Universe was dominated by a fluid which had the equation state attributed to the vacuum (i.e. dominated by tension rather than pressure) and that this led to an exponential expansion of the Universe which was "inflated" by many orders of magnitude of its original size. It was then shown that this "inflation" could provide a resolution of the above outstanding problems. The talk will cover the speaker's personal perspective and contributions to this idea and the subsequent developments over the following 25 years since its inception.
A Penrose diagram is constructed for an example black hole that evaporates at a steady rate as measured by a distant observer, until the mass vanishes, yielding a final state Minkowski space-time. Coordinate dependencies of significant features, such as the horizon and coordinate anomalies, are clearly demonstrated on the diagram. The large-scale causal structure of the space-time is briefly discussed.