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DOE OSTI2020

Chaos and complementarity in de Sitter space

We consider small perturbations to a static three-dimensional de Sitter geometry. For early enough perturbations that satisfy the null energy condition, the result is a shockwave geometry that leads to a time advance in the trajectory of geodesics crossing it. This brings the opposite poles of de Sitter space into causal contact with each other, much like a traversable wormhole in Anti-de Sitter space. In this background, we compute out-of-time-order correlators (OTOCs) to asses the chaotic nature of the de Sitter horizon and find that it is maximally chaotic: one of the OTOCs we study decays exponentially with a Lyapunov exponent that saturates the chaos bound. We discuss the consequences of our results for de Sitter complementarity and inflation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

The EFT-hedron

We re-examine the constraints imposed by causality and unitarity on the low-energy effective field theory expansion of four-particle scattering amplitudes, exposing a hidden “totally positive” structure strikingly similar to the positive geometries associated with grassmannians and amplituhedra. This forces the infinite tower of higher-dimension operators to lie inside a new geometry we call the “EFT-hedron”. We initiate a systematic investigation of the boundary structure of the EFT-hedron, giving infinitely many linear and non-linear inequalities that must be satisfied by the EFT expansion in any theory. We illustrate the EFT-hedron geometry and constraints in a wide variety of examples, including new consistency conditions on the scattering amplitudes of photons and gravitons in the real world.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rindler fluids from gravitational shockwaves

We study a correspondence between gravitational shockwave geometry and its fluid description near a Rindler horizon in Minkowski spacetime. Utilizing the Petrov classification that describes algebraic symmetries for Lorentzian spaces, we establish an explicit mapping between a potential fluid and the shockwave metric perturbation, where the Einstein equation for the shockwave geometry is equivalent to the incompressibility condition of the fluid, augmented by a shockwave source. Then we consider an Ansatz of a stochastic quantum source for the potential fluid, which has the physical interpretation of shockwaves created by vacuum energy fluctuations. Under such circumstance, the Einstein equation, or equivalently, the incompressibility condition for the fluid, becomes a stochastic differential equation. By smearing the quantum source on a stretched horizon in a Lorentz invariant manner with a Planckian width (similarly to the membrane paradigm), we integrate fluctuations near the Rindler horizon to find an accumulated effect of the variance in the round-trip time of a photon traversing the horizon of a causal diamond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Holography abhors visible trapped surfaces

We prove that consistency of the holographic dictionary implies a hallmark prediction of the weak cosmic censorship conjecture: that in classical gravity, trapped surfaces lie behind event horizons. In particular, the existence of a trapped surface implies the existence of an event horizon, and that furthermore this event horizon must be outside of the trapped surface. More precisely, we show that the formation of event horizons outside of a strong gravity region is a direct consequence of causal wedge inclusion, which is required by entanglement wedge reconstruction. We make few assumptions beyond the absence of evaporating singularities in strictly classical gravity. We comment on the implication that spacetimes with naked trapped surfaces do not admit a holographic dual, note a possible application to holographic complexity, and speculate on the dual CFT interpretation of a trapped surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Covariant bit threads

We derive several new reformulations of the Hubeny-Rangamani-Takayanagi covariant holographic entanglement entropy formula. These include: (1) a minimax formula, which involves finding a maximal-area achronal surface on a timelike hypersurface homologous to D(A) (the boundary causal domain of the region A whose entropy we are calculating) and minimizing over the hypersurface; (2) a max V-flow formula, in which we maximize the flux through D(A) of a divergenceless bulk 1-form V subject to an upper bound on its norm that is non-local in time; and (3) a min U-flow formula, in which we minimize the flux over a bulk Cauchy slice of a divergenceless timelike 1-form U subject to a lower bound on its norm that is non-local in space. The two flow formulas define convex programs and are related to each other by Lagrange duality. For each program, the optimal configurations dynamically find the HRT surface and the entanglement wedges of A and its complement. The V-flow formula is the covariant version of the Freedman-Headrick bit thread reformulation of the Ryu-Takayanagi formula. We also introduce a measure-theoretic concept of a “thread distribution”, and explain how Riemannian flows, V-flows, and U-flows can be expressed in terms of thread distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The structure of quantum singularities on a Cauchy horizon

Spacetime singularities pose a long-standing puzzle in quantum gravity. Unlike Schwarzschild, a generic family of black holes gives rise to a Cauchy horizon on which, even in the Hartle-Hawking state, quantum observables such as ⟨T μν ⟩ — the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor — can diverge, causing a breakdown of semiclassical gravity. Because they are diagnosed within quantum field theory (QFT) on a smooth background, these singularities may provide a better-controlled version of the spacetime singularity problem, and merit further study. Here, I highlight a mildness puzzle of Cauchy horizon singularities: the ⟨T μν ⟩ singularity is significantly milder than expected from symmetry and dimensional analysis. I address the puzzle in a simple spacetime ${\mathcal{W}}_P$, which arises universally near all black hole Cauchy horizons: the past of a codimension-two spacelike plane in flat spacetime. Specifically, I propose an extremely broad QFT construction in which, roughly speaking, Cauchy horizon singularities originate from operator insertions in the causal complement of the spacetime. The construction reproduces well-known outer horizon singularities (e.g., in the Boulware state), and remarkably, when applied to ${\mathcal{W}}_P$, gives rise to a universal mild singularity structure for robust singularities, ones whose leading singular behavior is state-independent. I make non-trivial predictions for all black hole Cauchy horizon singularities using this, and discuss extending the results beyond robust singularities and the strict near Cauchy horizon limit.

black holes↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum error correction from complexity in Brownian SYK

We study the robustness of quantum error correction in a one-parameter ensemble of codes generated by the Brownian SYK model, where the parameter quantifies the encoding complexity. The robustness of error correction by a quantum code is upper bounded by the “mutual purity” of a certain entangled state between the code subspace and environment in the isometric extension of the error channel, where the mutual purity of a density matrix ρAB is the difference $\mathcal{F}$ p ($A : B$) ≡ $\mathrm{T}$r $p^{2}_{AB}$ - $\mathrm{T}$r $p^{2}_{A}$ $\mathrm{T}$r $p^{2}_{B}$. We show that when the encoding complexity is small, the mutual purity is O(1) for the erasure of a small number of qubits (i.e., the encoding is fragile). However, this quantity decays exponentially, becoming O(1/N) for O(log N) encoding complexity. Further, at polynomial encoding complexity, the mutual purity saturates to a plateau of O(e -N ). We also find a hierarchy of complexity scales associated to a tower of subleading contributions to the mutual purity that quantitatively, but not qualitatively, adjust our error correction bound as encoding complexity increases. In the AdS/CFT context, our results suggest that any portion of the entanglement wedge of a general boundary subregion A with sufficiently high encoding complexity is robustly protected against low-rank errors acting on A with no prior access to the encoding map. From the bulk point of view, we expect such bulk degrees of freedom to be causally inaccessible from the region A despite being encoded in it.

1/N expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Security of quantum position-verification limits Hamiltonian simulation via holography

We investigate the link between quantum position-verification (QPV) and holography established in [1] using holographic quantum error correcting codes as toy models. By inserting the “temporal” scaling of the AdS metric by hand via the bulk Hamiltonian interaction strength, we recover a toy model with consistent causality structure. This leads to an interesting implication between two topics in quantum information: if position-based verification is secure against attacks with small entanglement then there are new fundamental lower bounds for resources required for one Hamiltonian to simulate another.

AdS-CFT Correspondence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Higher-order tails and RG flows due to scattering of gravitational radiation from binary inspirals

Abstract We establish and develop a novel methodology to treat higher-order non-linear effects of gravitational radiation that is scattered from binary inspirals, which employs modern scattering-amplitudes methods on the effective picture of the binary as a composite particle. We spell out our procedure to study such effects: assembling tree amplitudes via generalized-unitarity methods and employing the closed-time-path formalism to derive the causal effective actions, which encompass the full conservative and dissipative dynamics. We push through to a new state of the art for these higher-order effects, up to the third subleading tail effect, at order$$ {G}_N^5 $$ G N 5 and the 5-loop level, which corresponds to the 8.5PN order. We formulate the consequent dissipated energy for these higher-order corrections, and carry out a renormalization analysis, where we uncover new subleading RG flow of the quadrupole coupling. For all higher-order tail effects we find perfect agreement with partial observable results in PN and self-force theories, where available.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Double holography in string theory

We develop the notion of double holography in Type IIB string theory realizations of braneworld models. The Type IIB setups are based on the holographic duals of 4d BCFTs comprising 4d N = 4 SYM on a half space coupled to 3d N = 4 SCFTs on the boundary. Based on the concrete BCFTs and their brane construction, we provide microscopic realizations of the intermediate holographic description, obtained by dualizing only the 3d degrees of freedom. Triggered by recent observations in bottom-up models, we discuss the causal structures in the full BCFT duals and intermediate descriptions. This confirms qualitative features found in the bottom-up models but suggests a refinement of their interpretation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic changes in evapotranspiration, canopy photosynthesis and expansive growth in open field under rapid fluctuating radiation

Abstract In open fields, plants experience dynamic changes in environment, particularly radiation, temperature, wind, and humidity but their short-term responses have not been adequately characterized under natural conditions. In this study, we assessed causal effects of rapid radiation fluctuation on seven plant parameters in open fields of cotton and sweet corn canopies. The parameters are evapotranspiration ( ET ), canopy photosynthesis indicated by CO2 flux from air to canopy ( FCO2 ), sensible heat energy flux ( H ), canopy conductance for water vapor ( gcw ), canopy surface temperature ( Ts ), shoot and leaf elongation rate, and stem diameter change. The energy and CO2 fluxes were measured with Bowen ratio/energy balance/CO2 gradient (BREB+) technique, using averaging time of 5 min. Shoot + leaf elongation and stem diameter change were monitored with position transducers using averaging time of 1 min. All parameters were all found to respond to change in radiation and transpiration within minutes or sooner. While radiation effects on canopy gas exchanges are expected, illuminating are the indirect but immediate effects on shoot + leaf growth and stem diameter change through radiation effects on transpiration and plant water status. A novel finding is that gcw also responded within minutes or sooner to radiation fluctuations and that FCO2 was related almost linearly to gcw . Results are discussed in terms of soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and interpreted in terms of dynamic interactions between transpiration and plant water status. The clear inverse relationship between ET and elongation rate or stem diameter changes provides additional evidence supporting the validity of 5-min averaging for the BREB + technique.

Hsiao, Theodore C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. Additionally, it expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fundamental complement of a gravitating region

Any gravitating region a in any spacetime gives rise to a generalized entanglement wedge, the hologram e(a). Holograms exhibit properties expected of fundamental operator algebras, such as strong subadditivity, nesting, and no-cloning. But the entanglement wedge EW of an AdS boundary region B with commutant $\overline{B}$ satisfies an additional condition, complementarity: EW (B) is the spacelike complement of EW ($\overline{B}$) in the bulk. Here we identify an analogue of the boundary commutant $\overline{B}$ in general spacetimes: given a gravitating region a, its fundamental complement is the smallest wedge that contains all infinite world lines contained in the spacelike complement a' of a. We refine the definition of e(a) by requiring that it be spacelike to $\tilde{a}$. We prove that e(a) is the spacelike complement of e($\tilde{a}$) when the latter is computed in a'. We exhibit many examples of and of e(a) in de Sitter, flat, and cosmological spacetimes. Here, we find that a Big Bang cosmology (spatially closed or not) is trivially reconstructible: the whole universe is the entanglement wedge of any wedge inside it. But de Sitter space is not trivially reconstructible, despite being closed. We recover the AdS/CFT prescription by proving that EW (B) = e(causal wedge of B).

Bousso, Raphael [University of California, Berkele↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emerging Tools to Support DILI Assessment in Clinical Trials with Abnormal Baseline Serum Liver Tests or Pre-existing Liver Diseases

Abstract Based on the late Dr. Hyman Zimmerman’s observation that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) leading to jaundice carries a ≥ 10% fatality risk (coined as Hy’s law by others), evaluation of Drug-Induced Serious Hepatotoxicity (eDISH) continues to play a central role in the assessment of a study drug’s liability for acute hepatocellular DILI. The eDISH identifies drugs in clinical trials with DILI fatality (death or transplant) risk that may be unacceptable in a post-market setting. As a two-dimensional graph that plots peak total bilirubin (TB) versus peak serum aminotransferase levels for each patient during study drug or comparator treatment, eDISH identifies potential cases of acute, modest, and serious hepatocellular DILI for in-depth analysis of liver tests (LT) and clinical course so that the likelihood of causal association with the study drug can be determined. Unfortunately, the generalizable utility of this tool only pertains to trials enrolling patients with normal or near normal (NNN) baseline (BL) serum LTs. The eDISH does not necessarily apply to trials of patients with abnormal baseline (ABN-BL) LTs that often coincide with underlying liver disorders. Because drug development programs being reviewed by the FDA increasingly target liver disorders, we are often challenged to evaluate DILI risk in trials of patients with ABN-BL LTs. Also, the high background prevalence of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) means patients with LTs above NNN may need to be enrolled in trials treating non-liver disorders to reflect the target population. Such study populations create challenges for industry and regulators because eDISH may not reliably categorize or identify potential cases of DILI for further analysis, as it so efficiently does in NNN-BL trials. We describe the main functionalities of eDISH in NNN-BL trials to understand what should be emulated by new tools or eDISH modifications. We then discuss non-eDISH–based plots that may be useful in ABN-BL trials.

Amirzadegan, Jasmine↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic incident-wave elevation prediction in intermediate water depth

Potential performance gains from optimal (non-causal) impedance-matching control of wave energy devices in irregular ocean waves are dependent on deterministic wave elevation prediction techniques that work well in practical applications. Although a number of devices are designed for operation in intermediate water depths, little work has been reported on deterministic wave prediction in such depths. Here, we investigated a deterministic wave-prediction technique based on an approximate propagation model that leads to an analytical formulation, which may be convenient to implement in practice. To improve accuracy, an approach to combine predictions based on multiple up-wave measurement points is evaluated. The overall method is tested using experimental time-series measurements recorded in the U.S. Navy MASK basin in Carderock, MD, USA. For comparison, an alternative prediction approach based on Fourier coefficients is also tested with the same data. Comparison of prediction approaches with direct measurements suggest room for improvement. Possible sources of error including tank reflections are estimated, and potential mitigation approaches are discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗