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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimated impacts of forest restoration scenarios on smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers in California

Abstract As wildfires continue to worsen across western United States, forest managers are increasingly employing prescribed burns as a way to reduce excess fuels and future wildfire risk. While the ecological benefits of these fuel treatments are clear, little is known about the smoke exposure tradeoffs of using prescribed burns to mitigate wildfires, particularly among at-risk populations. Outdoor agricultural workers are a population at increased risk of smoke exposure because of their time spent outside and the physical demands of their work. Here, we assess the smoke exposure impacts among outdoor agricultural workers resulting from the implementation of six forest management scenarios proposed for a landscape in the Central Sierra, California. We leverage emissions estimates from LANDIS-II to model daily PM 2.5 concentrations with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) and link those to agricultural employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We find a u-shaped result, in that moderate amounts of prescribed burning result in the greatest reduction in total smoke exposure among outdoor agricultural workers, particularly during months of peak agricultural activity due to wildfire-specific smoke reductions. The reduction in total smoke exposure, relative to scenarios with the least amount of management, decreases as more prescribed burning is applied to the landscape due to the contributions of the fuel treatments themselves to overall smoke burden. The results of this analysis may contribute to preparedness efforts aimed at reducing smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers, while also informing forest management planning for this specific landscape.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle carbon footprint and total production potential of cross-laminated timber from California’s wildland-urban interface

The frequency, scale, and severity of wildfires are steadily increasing in the Western United States. Sustainable forest management practices through forest thinning could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for wood-based, long-lived, and low-carbon building materials. This study explores the potential for harvesting biomass in California (CA) to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed biomass resource availability, finding that the total live hardwood and live softwood available in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) across CA sums to 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) and 34.9 MMT, respectively, which contains the equivalent of 90 MMT of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering softwood and hardwood sources to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle carbon footprint of live hardwood and softwood when including biogenic carbon storage/emissions is 414 and 317 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. To incorporate the timing of these emissions and uptake, we have also conducted a cradle-to-grave time-dependent global warming potential (GWP) analysis. The time-adjusted GWP for live hardwood and live softwood is −227 and −104 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. In terms of total CLT production potential, 0.03 and 0.005 million m3 CLT can be sourced from live softwood and hardwood, respectively, in WUI on gentle slopes in CA. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the US and the world, and provide a holistic approach to use forest thinning as a wildfire mitigation strategy in combination with a novel approach for life cycle assessment of building materials with a limited dataset.

Bose, Baishakhi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the uppermost 100 m structure of the San Jacinto fault zone southeast of Anza, California, through joint analysis of geological, topographic, seismic and resistivity data

We present results from complementary geological, topographic, seismic and electrical resistivity surveys at the Sagebrush Flat (SGB) site along the Clark fault (CF) strand of the San Jacinto fault zone trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California. Joint interpretation of these data sets, each with unique spatiotemporal sensitivities, allow us to better characterize the shallow (<100 m) fault zone at this structurally complex site. Geological mapping at the surface shows the CF has three main subparallel strands within a <100 m zone with varying degrees of rock damage. These strands intersect units of banded gneiss and tonalite, and various sedimentary units. Near the surface, the weathered but more intact tonalite and gneiss to the southwest have relatively high VP. The low-lying flat sedimentary basins around the two southwestern-most CF strands and elevated damaged gneiss to the northeast have lowest VP <500 m s–1. The high relief of the northeast gneiss unit may in part be explained by its extensive damage and inferred increased relative rock uplift. Resistivity imaging shows the unconsolidated dry basin sediments (maximum >1300 Ohm.m) contrasted against the compacted fine-grained (potentially wet) materials within the CF core and the Bautista Formation (minimum <40 Ohm.m), which is slightly elevated above the flat basins. The inverse relationship between VP (increases) and resistivity (decreases) in the uppermost ~15 m can be characterized as log–log linear with slopes of –2.6 to –4. At depths >30 m, the velocity heterogeneity near the surface merges into larger-scale structures that are generally slower on the northeast side of the CF core compared to the southwest side (as much as ~40 per cent reduction in average VP). A previous study revealed a 20–37 per cent variability in peak ground velocities across the SGB site from local earthquakes. The upper end of that range is associated with the near-surface unconsolidated sedimentary basins and northeast damaged gneiss unit. Preliminary analysis of time-dependent topography mostly shows effects of changing vegetation and anthropogenic activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Internal structure of the San Jacinto fault zone at the Ramona Reservation, north of Anza, California, from dense array seismic data

SUMMARY We image the internal structure of the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) near Anza, California, with seismic data recorded by two dense arrays (RA and RR) from ∼42 000 local and ∼180 teleseismic events occurring between 2012 and 2017. The RA linear array has short aperture (∼470 m long with 12 strong motion sensors) and recorded for the entire analysed time window, whereas the RR is a large three-component nodal array (97 geophones across a ∼2.4 km × 1.4 km area) that operated for about a month in September–October 2016. The SJFZ at the site contains three near-parallel surface traces F1, F2 and F3 from SW to NE that have accommodated several Mw > 6 earthquakes in the past 15 000 yr. Waveform changes in the fault normal direction indicate structural discontinuities that are consistent with the three fault surface traces. Relative slowness from local events and delay time analysis of teleseismic arrivals in the fault normal direction suggest a slower SW side than the NE with a core damage zone between F1 and F2. This core damage zone causes ∼0.05 s delay at stations RR26–31 in the teleseismic P arrivals compared with the SW-most station, and generates both P- and S-type fault zone trapped waves. Inversion of S trapped waves indicates the core damaged structure is ∼100 m wide, ∼4 km deep with a Q value of ∼20 and 40 per cent S-wave velocity reduction compared with bounding rocks. Fault zone head waves observed at stations SW of F3 indicate a local bimaterial interface that separates the locally faster NE block from the broad damage zone in the SW at shallow depth and merges with a deep interface that separates the regionally faster NE block from rocks to the SW with slower velocities at greater depth. The multiscale structural components observed at the site are related to the geological and earthquake rupture history at the site, and provide important information on the preferred NW propagation of earthquake ruptures on the San Jacinto fault.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional seismic velocity changes following the 2019 M w 7.1 Ridgecrest, California earthquake from autocorrelations and P / S converted waves

SUMMARY We examine regional transient changes of seismic velocities generated by the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake in California, using autocorrelations of moving time windows in continuous waveforms recorded at regional stations. We focus on traveltime differences in a prominent phase generated by an interface around 2 km depth, associated with transmitted Pp waves and converted Ps waves from the ongoing microseismicity. Synthetic tests demonstrate the feasibility of the method for monitoring seismic velocity changes. Taking advantage of the numerous aftershocks in the early period following the main shock, we obtain a temporal resolution of velocity changes up to 20 min in the early post-main-shock period. The results reveal regional coseismic velocity drops in the top 1–3 km with an average value of ∼2 per cent over distances up to 100 km from the Ridgecrest event. These average velocity drops are likely dominated by larger changes in the shallow materials and are followed by rapid recoveries on timescales of days. Around the north end of the Ridgecrest rupture and the nearby Coso geothermal region, the observed coseismic velocity drops are up to ∼8 per cent. The method allows monitoring temporal changes of seismic velocities with high temporal resolution, fast computation and precise spatial mapping of changes. The results suggest that significant temporal changes of seismic velocities of shallow materials are commonly generated on a regional scale by large events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genomic description of human clinical Aspergillus fumigatus isolates, California, 2020

Abstract Aspergillus fumigatus, an environmental mold, causes life-threatening infections. Studies on the phylogenetic structure of human clinical A. fumigatus isolates are limited. Here, we performed whole genome sequencing of 24 A. fumigatus isolates collected from 18 patients in U.S. healthcare facilities in California. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences between patient isolates ranged from 187 to 70 829 SNPs. For five patients with multiple isolates, we calculated the within-host diversities. Three patients had a within-host diversity that ranged from 4 to 10 SNPs and two patients ranged from 2 to 16 977 SNPs. Findings revealed highly diverse A. fumigatus strains among patients and two patterns of diversity for isolates that come from the same patient, low and extremely high diversity.

Misas, Elizabeth (ORCID:0000000162437716)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Type 2 diabetes impairs annulus fibrosus fiber deformation and rotation under disc compression in the University of California Davis type 2 diabetes mellitus (UCD-T2DM) rat model

Abstract Understanding the biomechanical behavior of the intervertebral disc is crucial for studying disease mechanisms and developing tissue engineering strategies for managing disc degeneration. We used synchrotron small-angle X-ray scattering to investigate how changes to collagen behavior contribute to alterations in the disc’s ability to resist compression. Coccygeal motion segments from 6-month-old lean Sprague-Dawley rats ( n=7) and diabetic obese University of California Davis type 2 diabetes mellitus (UCD-T2DM) rats ( n=6, diabetic for 68±7 days) were compressed during simultaneous synchrotron scanning to measure collagen strain at the nanoscale (beamline 7.3.3 of the Advanced Light Source). After compression, the annulus fibrosus was assayed for nonenzymatic cross-links. In discs from lean rats, resistance to compression involved two main energy-dissipation mechanisms at the nanoscale: (1) rotation of the two groups of collagen fibrils forming the annulus fibrosus and (2) straightening (uncrimping) and stretching of the collagen fibrils. In discs from diabetic rats, both mechanisms were significantly impaired. Specifically, diabetes reduced fibril rotation by 31% and reduced collagen fibril strain by 30% (compared to lean discs). The stiffening of collagen fibrils in the discs from diabetic rats was consistent with a 31% higher concentration of nonenzymatic cross-links and with evidence of earlier onset plastic deformations such as fibril sliding and fibril–matrix delamination. These findings suggest that fibril reorientation, stretching, and straightening are key deformation mechanisms that facilitate whole-disc compression, and that type 2 diabetes impairs these efficient and low-energy elastic deformation mechanisms, thereby altering whole-disc behavior and inducing the earlier onset of plastic deformation.

Rosenberg, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prescribed fire selects for a pyrophilous soil sub‐community in a northern California mixed conifer forest

Abstract Prescribed fire is a critical strategy for mitigating the effects of catastrophic wildfires. While the above‐ground response to fire has been well‐documented, fewer studies have addressed the effect of prescribed fire on soil microorganisms. To understand how soil microbial communities respond to prescribed fire, we sampled four plots at a high temporal resolution (two burned, two controls), for 17 months, in a mixed conifer forest in northern California, USA. Using amplicon sequencing, we found that prescribed fire significantly altered both fungal and bacterial community structure. We found that most differentially abundant fungal taxa had a positive fold‐change, while differentially abundant bacterial taxa generally had a negative fold‐change. We tested the null hypothesis that these communities assembled due to neutral processes (i.e., drift and/or dispersal), finding that >90% of taxa fit this neutral prediction. However, a dynamic sub‐community composed of burn‐associated indicator taxa that were positively differentially abundant was enriched for non‐neutral amplicon sequence variants, suggesting assembly via deterministic processes. In synthesizing these results, we identified 15 pyrophilous taxa with a significant and positive response to prescribed burns. Together, these results lay the foundation for building a process‐driven understanding of microbial community assembly in the context of the classical disturbance regime of fire.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California

Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%–30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%–40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%–20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of experimental nitrogen deposition on soil organic carbon storage in Southern California drylands

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is enriching soils with N across biomes. Soil N enrichment can increase plant productivity and affect microbial activity, thereby increasing soil organic carbon (SOC), but such responses vary across biomes. Drylands cover ~45% of Earth's land area and store ~33% of global SOC contained in the top 1 m of soil. Nitrogen fertilization could, therefore, disproportionately impact carbon (C) cycling, yet whether dryland SOC storage increases with N remains unclear. To understand how N enrichment may change SOC storage, we separated SOC into plant–derived, particulate organic C (POC), and largely microbially derived, mineral–associated organic C (MAOC) at four N deposition experimental sites in Southern California. Theory suggests that N enrichment increases the efficiency by which microbes build MAOC (C stabilization efficiency) if soil pH stays constant. But if soils acidify, a common response to N enrichment, then microbial biomass and enzymatic organic matter decay may decrease, increasing POC but not MAOC. We found that N enrichment had no effect on C fractions except for a decrease in MAOC at one site. Specifically, despite reported increases in plant biomass in three sites and decreases in microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activities in two sites that acidified, POC did not increase. Furthermore, microbial C use and stabilization efficiency increased in a non–acidified site, but without increasing MAOC. Instead, MAOC decreased by 16% at one of the sites that acidified, likely because it lost 47% of the exchangeable calcium (Ca) relative to controls. Indeed, MAOC was strongly and positively affected by Ca, which directly and, through its positive effect on microbial biomass, explained 58% of variation in MAOC. Finally, long–term effects of N fertilization on dryland SOC storage appear abiotic in nature, such that drylands where Ca–stabilization of SOC is prevalent and soils acidify, are most at risk for significant C loss.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The air mycobiome is decoupled from the soil mycobiome in the California San Joaquin Valley

Abstract Dispersal is a key force in the assembly of fungal communities and the air is the dominant route of dispersal for most fungi. Understanding the dynamics of airborne fungi is important for determining their source and for helping to prevent fungal disease. This understanding is important in the San Joaquin Valley of California, which is home to 4.2 million people and where the airborne fungus Coccidioides is responsible for the most important fungal disease of otherwise healthy humans, coccidioidomycosis. The San Joaquin Valley is the most productive agricultural region in the United States, with the principal crops grown therein susceptible to fungal pathogens. Here, we characterize the fungal community in soil and air on undeveloped and agricultural land in the San Joaquin Valley using metabarcoding of the internal transcribed spacer 2 variable region of fungal rDNA. Using 1,002 individual samples, we report one of the most extensive studies of fungi sampled simultaneously from air and soil using modern sequencing techniques. We find that the air mycobiome in the San Joaquin Valley is distinct from the soil mycobiome, and that the assemblages of airborne fungi from sites as far apart as 160 km are far more similar to one another than to the fungal communities in nearby soils. Additionally, we present evidence that airborne fungi in the San Joaquin Valley are subject to dispersal limitation and cyclical intra‐annual patterns of community composition. Our findings are broadly applicable to understanding the dispersal of airborne fungi and the taxonomic structure of airborne fungal assemblages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metatranscriptomes of California grassland soil microbial communities in response to rewetting

When very dry soil is rewet, rapid stimulation of microbial activity has important implications for ecosystem biogeochemistry, yet associated changes in microbial transcription are poorly known. Here, we present metatranscriptomes of California annual grassland soil microbial communities, collected over 1 week from soils rewet after a summer drought—providing a time series of short-term transcriptional response during rewetting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California

Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking the spatial and temporal links between late Cenozoic extension and magmatism in the Death Valley region (California, USA)

The relationship between late Cenozoic magmatism and extension in the central Basin and Range province (western United States) is complex, necessitating high-precision geochronology to understand its spatiotemporal connections. In the Death Valley region (California), the lack of high-precision U-Pb zircon ages has limited our understanding of the timing of pluton formation and its links to regional extension. We present new high-precision chemical abrasion-isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry 206 Pb/ 238 U zircon ages and trace element analyses for eight Death Valley plutons. Our findings reveal three distinct phases of intrusive magmatism: (1) emplacement of shallow rapakivi granites at 13.2 Ma, (2) construction of the mid-crustal Black Mountains intrusive complex at 11.3 Ma, and (3) late emplacement of shallow, compositionally diverse intrusions at 8.2 Ma. A gap in zircon crystallization between 10 Ma and 8.2 Ma coincides with exhumation of the Black Mountains and a transition from sill to dike emplacement. The dominance of rapakivi granites in the Death Valley region, which is rare among Cenozoic granitoids, is likely a result of rapid crustal extension that induces adiabatic decompression. A comparison of the timing of volcanism, plutonism, and tectonic events in Death Valley reveals that intrusive magmatism closely tracks the locus of extension, underscoring the plutonic record as a vital link for understanding regional tectonics and changes in plate boundary dynamics during this period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Tropical Pacific-induced Predictability of Southern California Precipitation Using a Novel Multi-input Multi-output Autoencoder

We construct a novel Multi-Input Multi-Output Autoencoder-decoder (MIMO-AE) to capture the non-linear relationship of Southern California precipitation and tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature. The MIMO-AE is trained on both monthly TP-SST and SC-PRECIP anomalies simultaneously. The co-variability of the two fields in the MIMO-AE shared nonlinear latent space can be condensed into an index, termed the MIMO-AE index. We use a transfer learning approach to train a MIMO-AE on the combined dataset of 100 years of output from a historical simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model version 1 and a segment of observational data. We further use Long Short-Term Memory networks to assess sub-seasonal predictability of SC-PRECIP using the MIMO-AE index. We find that the MIMO-AE index provides enhanced predictability of SC-PRECIP for a lead-time of up-to four months as compared to Niño 3.4 index and the El Niño Southern Oscillation Longitudinal Index.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗