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At least 433 records · Page 24

National Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1–2019

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2019 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, which is developed by the ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1, and is the model energy standard for all commercial buildings and multifamily residential buildings over three floors. PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1-2019, compared to the previous 90.1-2016 edition, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. In reviewing proposed changes to Standard 90.1, the SSPC considers the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda). Due to the continuous nature of the development process, however, ASHRAE does not evaluate the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting state and local governments. Providing states with an analysis of cost-effectiveness facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts associated with updated model energy codes, informs the state decision-making process and its authorities, and ultimately encourages greater adoption of updated of energy codes. This information also informs the development of future editions of Standard 90.1.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Anomaly Attribution with Likelihood Compensation

This paper addresses the task of explaining anomalous predictions of a black-box regression model. When using a black-box model, such as one to predict building energy consumption from many sensor measurements, we often have a situation where some observed samples may significantly deviate from their prediction. It may be due to a sub-optimal black-box model, or simply because those samples are outliers. In either case, one would ideally want to compute a responsibility score indicative of the extent to which an input variable is responsible for the anomalous output. In this work, we formalize this task as a statistical inverse problem: Given model deviation from the expected value, infer the responsibility score of each of the input variables. We propose a new method called likelihood compensation (LC), which is founded on the likelihood principle and computes a correction to each input variable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first principled framework that computes a responsibility score for real valued anomalous model deviations. We apply our approach to a real-world building energy prediction task and confirm its utility based on expert feedback.

Idé, Tsuyoshi↗

National Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2022 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, which is developed by the ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1 and is the model energy standard for all commercial buildings and multifamily residential buildings over three floors. PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1-2022, compared to the previous 90.1-2019 edition, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. In reviewing proposed changes to Standard 90.1, the SSPC considers the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda). Due to the continuous nature of the development process, however, ASHRAE does not evaluate the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting state and local governments. Providing states with an analysis of cost-effectiveness facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts associated with updated model energy codes, informs the state decision-making process and its authorities, and ultimately encourages greater adoption of updated energy codes. This information also informs the development of future editions of Standard 90.1.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Framework for Modeling 3D-Printed Concrete Construction to Assess Energy Efficiency and Backup Power Trade-Offs in a Mixed-Use, New Construction Neighborhood Development

This paper presents a framework that expands the URBANopt(TM) modeling platform to include 3D-printed concrete wall assemblies and assess energy efficiency and backup power trade-offs in new housing developments. Applied to a planned mixed-use neighborhood in Oil City, Pennsylvania, the workflow integrates building energy and distributed energy resource (DER) modeling to evaluate envelope and equipment upgrades alongside DER operations. Results show that advanced 3D-printed envelopes combined with efficient systems and onsite photovoltaics (PV) and storage reduce energy use intensity and sustain critical loads during outages. The framework supports planning for emerging construction technologies by quantifying key trade-offs between energy efficiency and backup power performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy innovation in the US buildings sector: Setting the stage and mapping the future

Jared Langevin is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where he leads modeling of US buildings sector innovation and its implications for energy demand, consumer costs, and the power grid. Eric Wilson is a senior research engineer in the Building Technologies and Sciences Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Much of his 15-year career at NREL has revolved around modeling and analysis of the US building stock. Jared and Eric co-led the development of a National Blueprint for buildings sector innovation while serving as advisors to the US Department of Energy’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Buildings and Industry.

Langevin, Jared↗

Probabilistic Power Consumption Modeling for Commercial Buildings Using Logistic Regression Markov Chain

The total energy consumed by buildings takes up to 40% of U.S. energy use, in which a large portion is contributed by commercial buildings. Building performance optimization is desirable but requires accurate building models with uncertainties taken into account. This paper proposes a novel probabilistic modeling method using Logistic Regression Markov Chain (LRMC). The LRMC model enhances the performance of traditional Markov Chain (MC) models by adopting time-variant transition matrices calibrated using logistic regression with exogenous inputs. Compared with existing building models, the proposed model produces accurate multi-step modeling results with full probability distribution. The proposed probabilistic building model is tested using actual commercial building measurements and modeling performance is evaluated with two probabilisitc metrics. The results show that the LRMC model has higher accuracy than traditional MC model and Logistic Regression (LR) model in that it yields lower error scores under both evaluation metrics.

Building modeling↗

Opening the Door to Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings with Energy Codes

Building codes represent standard design practice in the construction industry and must continually evolve to account for advancing technologies and innovative practices. Energy codes have historically focused on energy efficiency within buildings and across their systems. However, many of tomorrow's technologies go beyond efficiency and target increased flexibility. These demand flexibility (DF) measures can postpone or reduce building electric load based on price or other grid signals, and include smart appliances, connected lighting, and connected mechanical systems. Expanding codes to enable such grid-interactive efficient building (GEB) has the potential to influence their realization at scale, which will support renewable-energy grid-integration and building-sector decarbonization. However, considering DF measures in code development creates a new set of challenges for codes and the practices contained therein. This paper considers the role of building energy codes in enabling GEB. Specifically, it reviews the status of demand flexibility (DF) measures in current commercial building energy code. It examines the national model code development process and identifies components barring the consideration and inclusion of DF measures - including code scope, characterization and analysis of proposed new prescriptive measures, and accounting for time-of-day and geographic differences in their benefits. The paper presents findings from code development analyses that indicate the cost benefit of DF measures and the limitations associated with current code development conventions. To encourage building flexibility and improved energy resilience moving forward, recommendations are made for removing code development barriers and sanctioning DF measure consideration in future model codes.

Building Energy Codes and Standards, Grid-Interact↗

Electrical Measurement and Verification of Energy in DC Buildings

Today's selection of DC buildings features a diverse set of electrical topologies and turnkey solutions, and each has specific design trade-offs and optimizations. Designers desperately need standardized metrics and procedures for measurement and verification (M&V) to analyze and compare the advantages of each DC solution to traditional AC building networks. This work develops the Measurement-Informed Modeling (MIM) method, which can be used to determine full-building efficiency and energy savings. The MIM M&V procedure develops a building model, and refines the model with metered data. This work demonstrates the MIM method by measuring the full-building efficiency of two DC buildings operated by the Institute of Building Research in Shenzhen, China. The MIM procedure can ultimately be used to compare and improve the efficiency of various DC topologies.

buildings↗

Turbulence-parameter estimation for current-energy converters using surrogate model optimization

Surrogate models maximize information utility by building predictive models in place of computational or experimentally expensive model runs. Marine hydrokinetic current energy converters require large-domain simulations to estimate array efficiencies and environmental impacts. Meso-scale models typically represent turbines as actuator discs that act as momentum sinks and sources of turbulence and its dissipation. An OpenFOAM model was developed where actuator disc k-ε turbulence was characterized using an approach developed for flows through vegetative canopies. Turbine-wake data from laboratory flume experiments collected at two influent turbulence intensities were used to calibrate parameters in the turbulence-source terms in the k-ε equations. Additionally, parameter influences on longitudinal wake profiles were estimated using Gaussian process regression with subsequent optimization minimizing the objective function within 3.1% of those obtained using the full model representation, but for 74% of the computational cost (far fewer model runs). This framework facilitates more efficient parameterization of the turbulence-source equations using turbine-wake data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States

The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Building Energy Codes and Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: How building energy codes can enable a more dynamic and energy-efficient built environment

This report considers the role of national model codes to promote grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) as part of the modernization of the U.S. electricity grid. It introduces GEBs, describes their ability to support a clean, resilient grid, and considers challenges and approaches for incorporating GEB measures into national model energy codes and standards. Desirable traits of GEB include being low energy, low peaking, and responsive to grid needs, and minimizing the curtailment of renewable energy resources. In addition, the future grid incurs a time and locational value on these types of building services. Accounting for these considerations in future code development requires a continuation and expansion of code-minimum energy efficiency requirements and inclusion of demand responsive and load flexibility measures while ensuring annual use and cost reductions. Also, efforts to include GEB measures in codes will be limited until they are fully developed into an American National Standards Institute (ANSI)-approved standard. Then it would be straightforward to address GEB measures through points or packages and/or scoring requirements. Otherwise, the building code would have to describe each specific grid responsive strategy. This document reviews topics pertinent to considering codes in this context. Specifically, the study presents the status and direction of current building energy codes, the future smart grid, low-energy buildings, and grid-integrated buildings. The report concludes with recommendations for future code development activities to support low-energy, grid-interactive buildings in order to provide added value to building owners, the grid, and society.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Heat Pump Rooftop Units with Original Fuel Backup

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—heat pump rooftop units with supplemental heat that matches the original fuel type of the replaced system; if the existing system used electric resistance heating, the supplemental heating source is electric resistance. If it was a natural gas furnace, the supplemental system is modeled as natural gas. This is a modification to the heat pump rooftop unit with electric supplemental heat measure from the Commercial EUSS 2023 Release 1 dataset. This document will primarily discuss the supplemental heating change for the heat pump RTU measure. For a comprehensive overview of the fundamental modeling methodology and background of the heat pump RTU measure, including performance curves and other key assumptions, please review the documentation for the original heat pump rooftop unit with electric supplemental heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A digital twin platform for building performance monitoring and optimization: Performance simulation and case studies

Advancements in sensor technology, data analytics, affordable compute, and communication infrastructure have paved the way for Digital Twin technology in optimizing building operations and controls. This study presents the development of an open and interoperable web-based Digital Twin platform for integrating diverse data streams and facilitating effective user interactions. The platform utilizes modern technologies for the web framework and time-series data management, ensuring scalability and responsiveness. The backend supports seamless integration of diverse data sources and emulators, incorporating data from building sensors and meters, external weather Application Programming Interfaces, and advanced EnergyPlus simulation models of the building and its energy systems including the Distributed Energy Resources that are formulated in Functional Mockup Units. A simulation case study was conducted with FlexLab, a test facility on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory campus. The case study includes normal operations, Distributed Energy Resource integration, and power outage scenarios, to illustrate the Digital Twin’s ability to provide critical insights into energy performance and thermal resilience. The results demonstrated the platform’s potential as a decision-support tool for optimizing building energy performance and enhancing resilience against extreme weather events. Future work will focus on deploying the Digital Twin platform to a real building for field validation, extending its capabilities to cover more scenarios such as bidirectional Electric Vehicle interactions, and enhancing user engagement.

EnergyPlus↗

Moving Zero Energy Office Buildings to the Mainstream: Establishing Design Guidelines and Energy Targets: Preprint

Office buildings represent a significant portion of the commercial sector and are ideal candidates to lead the market towards achieving zero energy or zero energy ready buildings. The variety of sizes and uses for office buildings make them challenging to determine set design guidance that can be deployed across the market. A project committee for ASHRAE’s Zero Energy - Advanced Energy Design Guide (ZE-AEDG) for small and medium office buildings , comprised of members from five major national associations with market-pull in commercial buildings, created design guidance for achieving zero energy office buildings for new construction and major retrofit. This design guidance focuses on the process, providing a pathway for both office owners and design teams to achieve zero energy status. Energy use intensity targets range from 16 kBtu/ft²·yr to 36 kBtu/ft²·yr for the different climate zones were established such that office buildings can be “zero-ready,” that is, having low energy consumption that can easily be offset with renewables, preferably on-site. The design guidance was rooted in extensive energy modeling, as well as case studies of actual office buildings that have achieved high levels of energy performance and met zero energy or zero energy ready status. A unique aspect of the zero-energy guide is that it is not compared against a baseline but focuses on achieving an absolute target. The paper presents process of creating the targets, the selection of strategies to achieve the targets, and sample case studies that show how the cost-sensitive solutions are achievable for the design community. It also presents outreach strategies to deploy market achievable zero energy measures.

buildings↗

HVAC modifications and computerized energy analysis for the Operations Support Building at the Mars Deep Space Station at Goldstone

The key heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) modifications implemented at the Mars Deep Space Station's Operation Support Building at Jet Propulsion Laboratories (JPL) in order to reduce energy consumption and decrease operating costs are described. An energy analysis comparison between the computer simulated model for the building and the actual meter data was presented. The measurement performance data showed that the cumulative energy savings was about 21% for the period 1979 to 1981. The deviation from simulated data to measurement performance data was only about 3%.

Halperin, A.↗