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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Source localization for neutron imaging systems using convolutional neural networks

The nuclear imaging system at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a crucial diagnostic for determining the geometry of inertial confinement fusion implosions. The geometry is reconstructed from a neutron aperture image via a set of reconstruction algorithms using an iterative Bayesian inference approach. An important step in these reconstruction algorithms is finding the fusion source location within the camera field-of-view. Currently, source localization is achieved via an iterative optimization algorithm. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning approach for source localization. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network to predict source locations given a neutron aperture image. We show that this approach decreases computation time by several orders of magnitude compared to the current optimization-based source localization while achieving similar accuracy on both synthetic data and a collection of recent NIF deuterium–tritium shots.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Neutron Multiplicity Counting Experiments to Optimal Cross-Section Adjustments

This paper presents the first application of model calibration to neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) experiments for cross-section optimization that is informed by adjoint-based sensitivity analysis (SA) and first-order uncertainty quantification (UQ). We summarize previous work on SA applied to NMC and describe notable modifications and additions. We give the procedure for first-order UQ and Bayesian-inference-based parameter estimation (PE). We then discuss model calibration applied to NMC of a 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium metal (the BeRP ball) with the nPod neutron multiplicity counter. For the BeRP ball in bare and polyethylene-reflected configurations, we discuss the sensitivity of the first- and second-moment detector responses (i.e., first and second moments of the NMC distribution, respectively) to the cross sections. We describe the sources of uncertainty in the measured and simulated responses. Specifically, uncertainty in the measured responses is due to both random and systematic sources. Uncertainty in the simulated responses is due to the cross-section covariances. We describe in detail the adjustment to the cross sections and cross-section covariances due to the optimization. Due to the contribution of systematic uncertainties to the measured response uncertainties, the adjustment to the cross sections is similar in trend but larger in magnitude compared to that recommended by previous work. We compare the measured responses to responses simulated with nominal and optimized cross sections, demonstrating that the best-estimate cross sections produce simulations of NMC experiments that are more accurate with reduced uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of Repeatability and Reproducibility Studies With Ordinal Measurements

A Bayesian inferential approach with a noninformative prior is introduced to analyze ordinal repeatability and reproducibility (R&R) data using the De Mast–Van Wieringen model. This approach is extended with a weakly informative prior and random effects to allow for the consideration of a population of raters and prediction of a new rater. This random-effects approach is also shown to result in partial pooling of estimates across raters. In addition, match-probability-based measures to decompose ordinal R&R study data into contributions due to repeatability and due to reproducibility are defined. All extensions involving Bayesian inference (for fixed or random effects) and measures are illustrated on real and simulated ordinal R&R study data and are applicable in business and industry settings. This methodology can be implemented using the supplemental R package ordinalRR available from CRAN. Additional supplementary material for this article is available online.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Cosmology and the neutrino mass ordering

We propose a simple method to quantify a possible exclusion of the inverted neutrino mass ordering from cosmological bounds on the sum of the neutrino masses. The method is based on Bayesian inference and allows for a calculation of the posterior odds of normal versus inverted ordering. We apply the method for a specific set of current data from Planck CMB data and large-scale structure surveys, providing an upper bound on the sum of neutrino masses of 0.14 eV at 95% CL. With this analysis we obtain posterior odds for normal versus inverted ordering of about 2:1. If cosmological data is combined with data from oscillation experiments the odds reduce to about 3:2. For an exclusion of the inverted ordering from cosmology at more than 95% CL, an accuracy of better than 0.02 eV is needed for the sum. We demonstrate that such a value could be reached with planned observations of large scale structure by analysing artificial mock data for a EUCLID-like survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian forecasts for dark matter substructure searches with mock pulsar timing data

Dark matter substructure, such as primordial black holes (PBHs) and axion miniclusters, can induce phase shifts in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) measurements due to gravitational effects. In order to gain a more realistic forecast for the detectability of such models of dark matter with PTAs, we propose a Bayesian inference framework to search for phase shifts generated by PBHs and perform the analysis on mock PTA data. Furthermore, for most PBH masses the constraints on the dark matter abundance agree with previous (frequentist) analyses (without mock data) to $\mathcal{O}$(1) factors. This further motivates a dedicated search for PBHs (and dense small scale structures) in the mass range from 10 -8 M ⊙ to well above 10 2 M ⊙ with the Square Kilometer Array. Moreover, with a more optimistic set of timing parameters, future PTAs are predicted to constrain PBHs down to 10 -11 M ⊙ . Lastly, we discuss the impact of backgrounds, such as Supermassive Black Hole Mergers, on detection prospects, suggesting a future program to separate a dark matter signal from other astrophysical sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vacuum energy density measured from cosmological data

Within the ΛCDM cosmological model, the absolute value of Einstein's cosmological constant Λ, sometimes expressed as the gravitating mass-energy density ρΛ of the physical vacuum, is a fundamental constant of nature, whose accurate measurement plays a central role in testing some proposed theories of quantum gravity. Several combinations of currently public cosmological data and an assumed flat ΛCDM cosmological model are used here to make a joint Bayesian inference on the combination of conventional parameters Ω Λ h 2 that corresponds to the absolute physical density ρΛ. In physical units, we obtain ρ Λ = (60.3 ± 1.3)× 10 -31 g/cm 3 , the most accurate constraint to date, with an absolute calibration of cosmological measurements based on CMB temperature. Significantly different values are obtained with calibrations that use a local distance scale, mainly connected to systematic differences in the value of the Hubble constant. Furthermore, it is suggested that future comprehensive cosmological parameter studies assuming the ΛCDM model include constraints on the vacuum density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying bias due to non-Gaussian foregrounds in an optimal reconstruction of CMB lensing and temperature power spectra

We estimate the magnitude of the bias due to non-Gaussian extragalactic foregrounds on the optimal reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential and temperature power spectra. The reconstruction is performed using a Bayesian inference method known as the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE). We apply MUSE to a minimum variance combination of multifrequency maps drawn from the Agora publicly available simulations of the lensed CMB and correlated extragalactic foreground emission. Taking noise levels appropriate to the SPT-3G D1 release, we find non-Gaussian foregrounds may bias the MUSE reconstruction of the lensing potential amplitude at the level of (0.7 ± 0.3)σ when using modes up to ℓ max = 3500. We do not detect a statistically significant bias, finding a value of (-0.4 ± 0.3)σ, when restricted to lower angular multipoles, ℓ max = 3000. This work is a first step toward understanding the impact of extragalactic foregrounds on optimal reconstructions of CMB temperature and lensing potential power spectra.

Statistical sampling techniques↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of the effect of uncertainty on impurity migration in PISCES-A simulated with GITR

A Bayesian inference strategy has been used to estimate uncertain inputs to global impurity transport code (GITR) modeling predictions of tungsten erosion and migration in the linear plasma device, PISCES-A. This allows quantification of GITR output uncertainty based on the uncertainties in measured PISCES-A plasma electron density and temperature profiles (n e , T e ) used as inputs to GITR. The technique has been applied for comparison to dedicated experiments performed for high (4 × 10 22 m –2 s –1 ) and low (5 × 10 21 m –2 s –1 ) flux 250 eV He–plasma exposed tungsten (W) targets designed to assess the net and gross erosion of tungsten, and corresponding W impurity transport. The W target design and orientation, impurity collector, and diagnostics, have been designed to eliminate complexities associated with tokamak divertor plasma exposures (inclined target, mixed plasma species, re-erosion, etc) to benchmark results against the trace impurity transport model simulated by GITR. The simulated results of the erosion, migration, and re-deposition of W during the experiment from the GITR code coupled to materials response models are presented. Specifically, the modeled and experimental W I emission spectroscopy data for a 429.4 nm line and net erosion through the target and collector mass difference measurements are compared. Furthermore, the methodology provides predictions of observable quantities of interest with quantified uncertainty, allowing estimation of moments, together with the sensitivities to plasma temperature and density.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impurity transport study based on measurement of visible wavelength high-n charge exchange transitions at W7-X

Abstract A recently installed high-speed charge exchange diagnostic at the W7-X stellarator has been used to identify several high-n Rydberg emission lines near 500 nm following impurity injections. The wavelengths of observed high-n Rydberg transitions are independent of the impurity species and originate from ions with ionization states ranging from 14+ to 45+ suggesting that this approach can be applied to a variety of heavy impurities. Moreover, little to no passive signal is observed since the high-n energy levels are unlikely to be populated by electron impact excitation. The combination of the newly developed diagnostic and the observation of high-n Rydberg states provides spatially resolved, high-speed measurements of multiple charge states which are analyzed in a Bayesian inference framework to determine both impurity diffusion and convection profiles. Measurements from the 2023 experimental campaign conclusively show high diffusion and an inward pinch in the core, well above predictions by neoclassical theory.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of proton bunch parameters in the AWAKE experiment

A precise characterization of the incoming proton bunch parameters is required to accurately simulate the self-modulation process in the Advanced Wakefield Experiment (AWAKE). This paper presents an analysis of the parameters of the incoming proton bunches used in the later stages of the AWAKE Run 1 data-taking period. The transverse structure of the bunch is observed at multiple positions along the beamline using scintillating or optical transition radiation screens. The parameters of a model that describes the bunch transverse dimensions and divergence are fitted to represent the observed data using Bayesian inference. Finally, the analysis is tested on simulated data and then applied to the experimental data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Roadmap for unconventional computing with nanotechnology

Abstract In the ‘Beyond Moore’s Law’ era, with increasing edge intelligence, domain-specific computing embracing unconventional approaches will become increasingly prevalent. At the same time, adopting a variety of nanotechnologies will offer benefits in energy cost, computational speed, reduced footprint, cyber resilience, and processing power. The time is ripe for a roadmap for unconventional computing with nanotechnologies to guide future research, and this collection aims to fill that need. The authors provide a comprehensive roadmap for neuromorphic computing using electron spins, memristive devices, two-dimensional nanomaterials, nanomagnets, and various dynamical systems. They also address other paradigms such as Ising machines, Bayesian inference engines, probabilistic computing with p-bits, processing in memory, quantum memories and algorithms, computing with skyrmions and spin waves, and brain-inspired computing for incremental learning and problem-solving in severely resource-constrained environments. These approaches have advantages over traditional Boolean computing based on von Neumann architecture. As the computational requirements for artificial intelligence grow 50 times faster than Moore’s Law for electronics, more unconventional approaches to computing and signal processing will appear on the horizon, and this roadmap will help identify future needs and challenges. In a very fertile field, experts in the field aim to present some of the dominant and most promising technologies for unconventional computing that will be around for some time to come. Within a holistic approach, the goal is to provide pathways for solidifying the field and guiding future impactful discoveries.

Finocchio, Giovanni (ORCID:0000000210433876)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Characterizing volumetric strain at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada, USA using geodetic data, numerical models and prior information

The geothermal field at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada has subsided over the past decade. Between 2004 and 2014, the rate of downward-vertical displacement was on the order of 10 mm yr -1 , as measured by two independent geodetic techniques: interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System. The observed deformation field forms an approximately elliptical bowl that is 4 km long and aligned with the trace of the NNE striking normal fault system. We use modelling to estimate the plausibility of pressure changes or thermal contraction as the cause of the observed subsidence. As a result, Bayesian inference favours with ‘very strong evidence’ thermal contraction over other hypotheses as the dominant driving mechanism for the observed subsidence. Using InSAR data spanning from 2016 July 22 to 2017 August 22, we estimate the volume change rate in the significantly deforming volume to be (-29 ± 3) thousand m 3 yr -1 and the total rate of change in thermal energy between -53 and -79 MW. We infer the total volume of cubes where the estimated volumetric strain rate is significantly different from zero with 95 per cent confidence to be 119 million m 3 . We find that the main region of significant cooling occurs between the injection and production well locations. This result supports the idea that highly permeable conduits along faults channel fluids from shallow aquifers to the deep reservoir tapped by the production wells.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

pop-cosmos : redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

ABSTRACT Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak-lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS (Kilo-Degree Survey)-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU (graphics processing unit)-accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim \!185\,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times 10^{-3}$), scatter ($\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2 per cent) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times 10^{-2}$, $\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0 per cent outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7 per cent of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37 per cent implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak-lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out of sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

Halder, Anik [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Ins↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R 0 ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25–93% and 65–85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian differential programming for robust systems identification under uncertainty

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling. This allows an efficient inference of the posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty, while the use of sparsity-promoting priors enables the discovery of interpretable and parsimonious representations for the underlying latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, including nonlinear oscillators, predator–prey systems and examples from systems biology. Taken together, our findings put forth a flexible and robust workflow for data-driven model discovery under uncertainty. All codes and data accompanying this article are available at https://bit.ly/34FOJMj .

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian processes meet NeuralODEs: a Bayesian framework for learning the dynamics of partially observed systems from scarce and noisy data

We present a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian model discovery from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. The use of the Finnish Horseshoe as a sparsity-promoting prior for free model parameters also enables the discovery of parsimonious representations for the latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator–prey systems, systems biology and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Context Dependence of Biological Circuits

It has been an ongoing scientific debate whether biological parameters are conserved across experimental setups with different media, pH values, and other experimental conditions. Our work explores this question using Bayesian probability as a rigorous framework to assess the biological context of parameters in a model of the cell growth controller in You et al. When this growth controller is uninduced, the E. coli cell population grows to carrying capacity; however, when the circuit is induced, the cell population growth is regulated to remain well below carrying capacity. This growth control controller regulates the E. coli cell population by cell to cell communication using the signaling molecule AHL and by cell death using the bacterial toxin CcdB. To evaluate the context dependence of parameters such as the cell growth rate, the carrying capacity, the AHL degradation rate, the leakiness of AHL, the leakiness of toxin CcdB, and the IPTG induction factor, we collect experimental data from the growth control circuit in two different media, at two different pH values, and with several induction levels. We define a set of possible context dependencies that describe how these parameters may differ with the experimental conditions and we develop mathematical models of the growth controller across the different experimental contexts. We then determine whether these parameters are shared across experimental contexts or whether they are context dependent. For each of these possible context dependencies, we use Bayesian inference to assess its plausibility and to estimate the parameters of the growth controller. Ultimately, we find that there is significant experimental context dependence in this circuit. Furthermore, we also find that the estimated parameter values are sensitive to our assumption of a context relationship.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗