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At least 433 records · Page 24

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

Bulk Oxygen Isotope Composition of Aggregate Samples From Asteroid Bennu Returned By OSIRIS-REx

On 24 September 2023, the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft delivered to Earth material collected from the surface of the B-type asteroid Bennu. During its ~2.5-year encounter with the asteroid, OSIRIS-REx made many important discoveries, including establishing its extremely primitive chemical composition, the presence of at least two lithologies, and evidence of fluid flow on its parent asteroid. One of the driving hypotheses of the Sample Analysis Plan is that Bennu’s dominant lithologies are comparable to the most aqueously altered carbonaceous chondrites. Oxygen three-isotope analysis is a powerful tool for defining the relationship between different meteorite groups and can be used to understand the nature of the returned Bennu samples. The O isotope signatures reflect the materials that parent asteroids accreted from and the geological processes that operated during asteroidal evolution. Aggregate samples of particles (typically <500 μm) likely sampled many different larger stones and boulders, and their composition may therefore represent the average composition of Bennu. Fractionation of the sample, e.g. comparison of aliquots of finer material with coarser particles within the aggregate samples, offers the opportunity to identify different isotopic reservoirs within the returned material. The average O isotope composition will also provide a baseline from which to identify and characterize any exogenous clasts present in the sample.

I. A. Franchi↗

The Potassium Isotope Composition of Aggregate Material From Asteroid Bennu

NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission re-turned material from asteroid Bennu on September 24, 2023, marking the first time a U.S. mission has delivered asteroid samples to Earth, and the largest asteroid sample return to date. Due to the pristine nature of these primitive carbonaceous-rich samples, they allow us a rare opportunity to study our solar system’s formation to a degree not previously possible. Isotopes of moderately volatile elements (MVEs) have been recently developed as robust tracers for tracking different volatilization events within our Solar System. Of the MVEs, K has gained significant interest in recent years due to its ideal chemical and physical properties combined with technique improvements. Due to this, several recent studies have investigated the K isotope systematics within bulk chondrites and found an isotopic dichotomy be-tween the carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous chondrites (Figure 1), likely reflecting their different reservoirs which formed in the inner and outer protoplanetary disk respectively. Furthermore, systematic K isotope variations across the different carbonaceous chondrite groups and correlations with mass independent isotope systems such as Cr, Ti, and Ni, have also been observed. As a result, establishing the K isotope composition of bulk Bennu can be used to test the mission hypothesis that “Bennu’s parent asteroid accreted in the outer protoplanetary disk, beyond Jupiter, as recorded by distinct isotopic anomalies in a variety of elements” . In addition to early solar system processes, K isotopes can also be fractionated by space weathering as shown by comparisons between mature and immature lunar regolith. The degree of K isotope fractionation caused by space weathering correlates with the regolith maturity index and is an order of magnitude larger than what is observed in bulk meteorite samples which have not undergone strong space weathering processes. As such, the K isotope systematics of Bennu samples could provide an independent assessment of regolith maturity of the asteroid surface, helping to directly test the mission hypothesis that “Space weathering changed the chemistry and mineralogy of optically active surfaces” . In order to test both this hypothesis, and the hypothesis relating to Bennu’s accretion location, we aim to conduct high-precision K isotope analysis on bulk Bennu aggregates.

K Wang↗

Lithological Diversity of a C-Complex Asteroid Recorded in LON 94101

CMs are the most common carbonaceous chondrite type, providing a wealth of information about the formation and aqueous alteration of primitive asteroids. Owing to their brecciated nature and possible rubble pile heritage, CMs host many lithologies. Indeed, recent results from Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx have revealed a plethora of boulder types on the surface of C-complex asteroids, from which most carbonaceous chondrites are likely derived, attesting to the complex history individual asteroids have experienced. Deciphering the relationships between lithologies, particularly when drawing upon multiple meteorites remains challenging, as C-complex asteroids are very common, and multiple asteroids could be providing similar materials.

R Findlay↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗

Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking with the Maui Space Surveillance System (NEAT/MSSS)

Over the last year the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT) program has made significant progress and now consists of two simultaneously-operating, autonomous search systems on the 1.2-m (48") telescopes: on the Maui Space Surveillance System (NEAT/MSSS) and NEAT/Palomar on the Palomar Observatory's Oschin telescope. This paper will focus exclusively on the NEAT/MSSS system. NEAT/MSSS is operated as a partnership between NASA/JPL and the United States Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), utilizing the AFRL 1.2-m telescope on the 3000-m summit of Haleakala, Maui, The USAF Space Command (SPCMD) contributed financial support to build and install the 'NEAT focal reducer' on the MSSS 1.2-m telescope giving it a large field of view (2.5 square degrees), suitable for the near-earth object (NEO),both asteroids and comets, survey. This work was completed in February 2000. AFRL has made a commitment to NEAT/MSSS that allows NEAT to operate full time with the understanding that AFRL participate as partners in NEAT/MSSS and have use of the NEAT camera system for high priority satellite observations during bright time (parts of 12 nights each month). Currently, NEAT has discovered 42 NEAs including 12 larger than 1-km, 5 Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs), 6 comets, and nearly 25,000 asteroid detections since March 2000.

near-earth asteroids↗

Overview of Mission Design for NASA Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission Concept

Part of NASA's new asteroid initiative would be a robotic mission to capture a roughly four to ten meter asteroid and redirect its orbit to place it in translunar space. Once in a stable storage orbit at the Moon, astronauts would then visit the asteroid for science investigations, to test in space resource extraction, and to develop experience with human deep space missions. This paper discusses the mission design techniques that would enable the redirection of a 100-1000 metric ton asteroid into lunar orbit with a 40-50 kW Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) system.

Asteroid Redirect Robotic Vehicle (ARRV)↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid Disruption↗

Early Solar Wind and Dynamo Magnetic Field Topology Predictions for (16) Psyche and Other Asteroids

Abstract Asteroid (16) Psyche is a metal‐rich body that might record an ancient coherent magnetization if some relict crust or mantle is preserved. Herein, we use magnetohydrodynamic simulations to predict (16) Psyche's field topology for several distinct pathways: (i) an early solar wind‐induced magnetization imparted after a larger body was impacted, forming the present‐day asteroid, (ii) a core dynamo magnetization imparted in an asteroid that is either presently largely intact or was a rubble pile, and (iii) magnetization in the turbulent solar nebula disk. For pathway (i) we find the field to be predominantly dipolar and spin axis‐aligned. For pathway (ii) we find the field to be either dipolar and spin axis‐misaligned, or highly multipolar. We also find that (iii) a field produced earlier before the solar nebula cleared, would be highly multipolar. In cases (i) and (ii) we also place constraints on the field strength. Simple detection of a magnetic field without constraining its topology and temporal variability would be insufficient to confirm a remanent source, due to the influence of the present‐day solar wind, electromagnetic induction, and (16) Psyche's high obliquity. For sufficiently strong fields however, the field topology and orientation may reveal key observable consequences of the nature and history of (16) Psyche. Our framework is also broadly applicable to the study of magnetic fields from other asteroids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Insight into multi-step geological evolution of C-type asteroids from Ryugu particles

C-type asteroids are the source of the carbonaceous chondrite meteorites and represent remnants of primitive planetesimals that formed at the outer margins of the early Solar System and may have delivered volatiles to the inner Solar System, in particular the early Earth. However, the nature of carbonaceous chondrites is not well understood owing to terrestrial alteration. Here, in this work, we present the petrology and mineral chemistry of surface materials collected by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Hayabusa2 spacecraft from the C-type asteroid Ryugu. The Ryugu particles we studied are similar to CI (Ivuna-type) chondrites but with some important differences, such as the presence of Na–Mg phosphates and Na-rich phases and the lack of ferrihydrite and gypsum. Ryugu particles experienced several steps of aqueous alteration, metasomatism and brecciation under variable conditions. These materials represent mixed lithologies and formed at different locations within their parent asteroid. The evidence presented here demonstrates that the C-type asteroid Ryugu experienced a complex geologic evolution shortly after its formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A history of mild shocks experienced by the regolith particles on hydrated asteroid Ryugu

Micrometeorites, a possible major source of Earth’s water, are thought to form from explosive dispersal of hydrated chondritic materials during impact events on their parental asteroids. However, this provenance and formation mechanism have yet to be directly confirmed using asteroid returned samples. Here, we report evidence of mild shock metamorphism in the surface particles of asteroid Ryugu based on electron microscopy. All particles are dominated by phyllosilicates but lack dehydration textures, which are indicative of shock-heating temperatures below ~500°C. Microfault-like textures associated with extensively shock-deformed framboidal magnetites and a high-pressure polymorph of Fe–Cr–sulfide have been identified. These findings indicate that the average peak pressure was ~2 GPa. The vast majority of ejecta formed during impact on Ryugu-like asteroids would be hydrated materials, larger than a millimetre, originating far from the impact point. These characteristics are inconsistent with current micrometeorite production models, and consequently, a new formation mechanism is required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physical properties of asteroid Dimorphos as derived from the DART impact

On 26 September 2022, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully impacted Dimorphos, the natural satellite of the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. Numerical simulations of the impact provide a means to find the surface material properties and structures of the target that are consistent with the observed momentum deflection efficiency, ejecta cone geometry and ejected mass. Our simulation that best matches the observations indicates that Dimorphos is weak, with a cohesive strength of less than a few pascals, like asteroids (162173) Ryugu and (101955) Bennu. We find that the bulk density of Dimorphos ρ B is lower than ~2,400 kg m – 3 and that it has a low volume fraction of boulders (≲40 vol%) on the surface and in the shallow subsurface, which are consistent with data measured by the DART experiment. These findings suggest that Dimorphos is a rubble pile that might have formed through rotational mass shedding and reaccumulation from Didymos. Our simulations indicate that the DART impact caused global deformation and resurfacing of Dimorphos. ESA’s upcoming Hera mission may find a reshaped asteroid rather than a well-defined crater.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The variety and origin of materials accreted by Bennu’s parent asteroid

The first bodies to form in the Solar System acquired their materials from stars, the presolar molecular cloud and the protoplanetary disk. Asteroids that have not undergone planetary differentiation retain evidence of these primary accreted materials. However, geologic processes such as hydrothermal alteration can dramatically change their bulk mineralogy, isotopic compositions and chemistry. Here we analyse the elemental and isotopic compositions of samples from asteroid Bennu to uncover the sources and types of material accreted by its parent body. We show that some primary accreted materials escaped the extensive aqueous alteration that occurred on the parent asteroid, including presolar grains from ancient stars, organic matter from the outer Solar System or molecular cloud, refractory solids that formed close to the Sun, and dust enriched in neutron-rich Ti isotopes. We find Bennu to be richer in isotopically anomalous organic matter, anhydrous silicates, and light isotopes of K and Zn than its closest compositional counterparts, asteroid Ryugu and Ivuna-type (CI) carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. We propose that the parent bodies of Bennu, Ryugu and CI chondrites formed from a common but spatially and/or temporally heterogeneous reservoir of materials in the outer protoplanetary disk.

Kuiper belt↗

DIFFERENT ORIGINS OR DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS? DECODING THE SPECTRAL DIVERSITY AMONG C-TYPE ASTEROIDS

Anhydrous pyroxene-rich interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) have been proposed as surface analogs for about two-thirds of all C-complex asteroids. However, this suggestion appears to be inconsistent with the presence of hydrated silicates on the surfaces of some of these asteroids, including Ceres. Here, we report the presence of enstatite (pyroxene) on the surface of two C-type asteroids (Ceres and Eugenia) based on their spectral properties in the mid-infrared range. The presence of this component is particularly unexpected in the case of Ceres, because most thermal evolution models predict a surface consisting of hydrated compounds only. The most plausible scenario is that Ceres’ surface has been partially contaminated by exogenous enstatite-rich material, possibly coming from the Beagle asteroid family. This scenario questions a similar origin for Ceres and the remaining C-types, and it possibly supports recent results obtained by the Dawn mission (NASA) that Ceres may have formed in the very outer solar system. Concerning the smaller D ∼ 200 km C-types such as Eugenia, both their derived surface composition (enstatite and amorphous silicates) and low density (<1.5 g cm{sup −3}) suggest that these bodies accreted from the same building blocks, namely chondritic porous, pyroxene-rich IDPs and volatiles (mostly water ice), and that a significant volume fraction of these bodies has remained unaffected by hydrothermal activity likely implying a late accretion. In addition, their current heliocentric distance may best explain the presence or absence of water ice at their surfaces. Finally, we raise the possibility that CI chondrites, Tagish-Lake-like material, or hydrated IDPs may be representative samples of the cores of these bodies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

OBSERVED ASTEROID SURFACE AREA IN THE THERMAL INFRARED

The rapid accumulation of thermal infrared observations and shape models of asteroids has led to increased interest in thermophysical modeling. Most of these infrared observations are unresolved. We consider what fraction of an asteroid’s surface area contributes the bulk of the emitted thermal flux for two model asteroids of different shapes over a range of thermal parameters. The resulting observed surface in the infrared is generally more fragmented than the area observed in visible wavelengths, indicating high sensitivity to shape. For objects with low values of the thermal parameter, small fractions of the surface contribute the majority of thermally emitted flux. Calculating observed areas could enable the production of spatially resolved thermal inertia maps from non-resolved observations of asteroids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Asteroid Rotation Period Survey Using the China Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope (CNEOST)

We initiated the bilateral collaboration between the Lulin Observatory and the Purple Mountain Observatory to collect asteroid lightcurves using the Chinese Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope at the Xuyi Observation Station. The primary goal of this collaboration was to discover super-fast rotators (SFRs) and study their physical properties. Two campaigns have been conducted: (a) a survey of ∼45 deg{sup 2} using 8 minute cadence during 2017 February 26–March 2, and (b) a survey of ∼60 deg{sup 2} using 10 minute cadence during 2018 March 9–12. Our samples are mainly main-belt asteroids and some Hildas and Jupiter Trojans. Out of 4522 collected lightcurves, 506 reliable rotation periods were obtained. Among the reliable rotation periods, we found 16 candidates with a possible rotation period of <2.2 hr, in which (134291) 2006 DZ6 shows a very convincing folded lightcurve and the other 15 candidates only have a likely trend. Further confirmation is needed for the rotation periods of these SFR candidates. In addition, (2280) Kunikov seems to have an eclipsing feature on its lightcurve with a relatively long rotation period suggesting that it is likely a fully synchronized binary asteroid. When the preliminary spin-rate distributions were carried out for asteroids using different sizes, no obvious difference was found.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Search for L4 Earth Trojan Asteroids Using a Novel Track-before-detect Multiepoch Pipeline

We report Earth Trojan asteroids are an important but elusive population that co-orbit with Earth at the L4 and L5 Lagrange points. There is only one known, but a large population is theoretically stable and could provide insight into our solar system’s past and present, as well as planetary defense. In this paper, we present the results of an Earth Trojan survey that uses a novel shift-and-stack detection method on 2 nights of data from the Dark Energy Camera. We find no new Earth Trojan asteroids. We calculate an upper limit on the population that is consistent with previous searches despite much less sky coverage. Additionally, we elaborate on previous upper-limit calculations using current asteroid population statistics and an extensive asteroid simulation to provide the most up-to-date population constraints. We find an L4 Earth Trojan population of N ET < 1 for H = 13.93, N ET < 10 for H = 16, and N ET < 938 for H = 22.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗