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Two simple period determination schemes are discussed. They are well suited to problems involving non-sinusoidal periodic phenomena sampled at a few irregularly spaced points. Statistical properties are discussed. The techniques are applied to the double mode Cepheids BK Cen and TU Cas as test cases.
In aerospace applications, an engineer must be especially cognizant of size and weight constraints which affect design decisions. Although designing at or below the material fatigue limit may be desirable in most industrial applications, in aerospace application it is almost mandatory to design certain components for a finite life at an acceptable probability of survival. Zaretsky outlined such a methodology based in part on the work of W. Weibull (1939, 1951) and G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren (1947a, 1947b, 1952). It is the objective of this work to apply the method of Zaretsky (1987) to statistically predict the life of a generic solid disk with and without bolt holes; determine the effect of disk design variables, thermal loads, and speed on relative life; and develop a generalized equation for determining disk life by incorporating only these variables.
A feasibility study of automated classification of satellite images is described. Satellite images were characterized by the textures they contain. In particular, the detection of cloud textures was investigated. The method of second-order gray level statistics, using co-occurrence matrices, was applied to extract feature vectors from image segments. Neural network technology was employed to classify these feature vectors. The cascade-correlation architecture was successfully used as a classifier. The use of a Kohonen network was also investigated but this architecture could not reliably classify the feature vectors due to the complicated structure of the classification problem. The best results were obtained when data from different spectral bands were fused.
A neural network approach to the inversion of surface scattering parameters is presented. Simulated data sets based on a surface scattering model are used so that the data may be viewed as taken from a completely known randomly rough surface. The fast learning (FL) neural network and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) trained with backpropagation learning (BP network) are tested on the simulated backscattering data. The RMS error of training the FL network is found to be less than one half the error of the BP network while requiring one to two orders of magnitude less CPU time. When applied to inversion of parameters from a statistically rough surface, the FL method is successful at recovering the surface permittivity, the surface correlation length, and the RMS surface height in less time and with less error than the BP network. Further applications of the FL neural network to the inversion of parameters from backscatter measurements of an inhomogeneous layer above a half space are shown.
This paper presents a probabilistic one-dimensional finite element model for heat transfer processes in porous heat exchangers. The Galerkin approach is used to develop the finite element matrices. Some of the submatrices are asymmetric due to the presence of the flow term. The Neumann expansion is used to write the temperature distribution as a series of random variables, and the expectation operator is applied to obtain the mean and deviation statistics. To demonstrate the feasibility of the formulation, a one-dimensional model of heat transfer phenomenon in superfluid flow through a porous media is considered. Results of this formulation agree well with the Monte-Carlo simulations and the analytical solutions. Although the numerical experiments are confined to parametric random variables, a formulation is presented to account for the random spatial variations.
Loading of the Earth by the temporal redistribution of global atmospheric mass is likely to displace the positions of geodetic monuments by tens of millimeters both vertically and horizontally. Estimates of these displacements are determined by convolving National Meteorological Center (NMC) global values of atmospheric surface pressure with Farrell's elastic Green's functions. An analysis of the distances between radio telescopes determined by very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) between 1984 and 1992 reveals that in many of the cases studied there is a significant contribution to baseline length change due to atmospheric pressure loading. Our analysis covers intersite distances of between 1000 and 10,000 km and is restricted to those baselines measured more than 100 times. Accounting for the load effects (after first removing a best fit slope) reduces the weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) scatter of the baseline length residuals on 11 of the 22 baselines investigated. The slight degradation observed in the WRMS scatter on the remaining baselines is largely consistent with the expected statistical fluctuations when a small correction is applied to a data set having a much larger random noise. The results from all baselines are consistent with approximately 60% of the computed pressure contribution being present in the VLBI length determinations. Site dependent coefficients determined by fitting local pressure to the theoretical radial displacement are found to reproduce the deformation caused by the regional pressure to within 25% for most inland sites. The coefficients are less reliable at near coastal and island stations.
Cloud observation and cloud modeling data can be presented in histograms for each characteristic to be measured. Combining information from single-cloud histograms yields a summary histogram. Summary histograms can be compared to each other to reach conclusions about the behavior of an ensemble of clouds in different places at different times or about the accuracy of a particular cloud model. As in any scientific comparison, it is necessary to decide whether any apparent differences are statistically significant. The usual methods of deciding statistical significance when comparing histograms do not apply in this case because they assume independent data. Thus, a new method is necessary. The proposed method uses the Euclidean distance metric and bootstrapping to calculate the significance level.
This slide presentation reviews the Large Eddy Simulation of a high reynolds number Coanda flow that is separated from a round trailing edge of a ciruclation control airfoil. The objectives of the study are: (1) To investigate detailed physics (flow structures and statistics) of the fully turbulent Coanda jet applied to a CC airfoil, by using LES (2) To compare LES and RANS results to figure out how to improve the performance of existing RANS models for this type of flow.
This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds arc an important forecast clement for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the statistics in the current peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool includes onshore and offshore flow climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.
The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point, as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Objective statistics will give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strength and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.
Ozone profiles from balloon-borne ozonesondes are used for development of satellite algorithms and in chemistry-climate model initialization, assimilation and evaluation. An important issue in the application of these profiles is how best to treat variations where varying photochemical and dynamical influences can cause the ozone mixing ratio in the tropospheric segments of the profile to change by of a factor of 2-3 within a day. Clustering techniques are an ideal way to approach the statistical classification of profile data and we apply self-organizing maps to tropical tropospheric SHADOZ data, hypothesizing that the data will sort according to various influences on ozone, namely anthropogenic sources like biomass burning, meteorological conditions, and stratospheric or extra-tropical intrusions. Self-organizing maps, that use a learning algorithm to reveal the most prominent features of a data set according to a specified number of clusters, have been determined for the 1998-2009 SHADOZ profiles over Ascension Island (512 profiles, 7.98 deg. S, 14.42 deg. W) and Natal, Brazil (425 profiles, 5.42degS, 35.38degW). The 2 × 2 self-organizing map, which creates 4 clusters, reveals that deviations from the average ozone in the free troposphere include both increased ozone resulting from seasonal biomass burning in Africa and locally reduced ozone brought about by convective lifting of unpolluted boundary-layer air. Expanding to a 4 × 4 self-organizing map shows how biomass burning influences the yearly cycle of tropospheric ozone at Ascension Island and captures the seasonality of ozone at both Ascension Island and Natal. Comparing Ascension Island and Natal using a 4 × 4 self-organizing map at each site reveals similarities in mid-tropospheric ozone, but shows differences in lower-tropospheric ozone due to Ascension Island being closer to African biomass burning and more affected by descent from the mean Walker circulation, with less convective activity, than Natal.
The detection of the first VIIP case occurred in 2005, and adequate eye outcome measures were available for 31 (67.4%) of the 46 long duration US crewmembers who had flown on the ISS since its first crewed mission in 2000. Therefore, this analysis is limited to a subgroup (22 males and 9 females). A "cardiovascular profile" for each astronaut was compiled by examining twelve individual parameters; eleven of these were preflight variables: systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, body mass index, percentage body fat, LDL, HDL, triglycerides, use of anti‐lipid medication, fasting serum glucose, and maximal oxygen uptake in ml/kg. Each of these variables was averaged across three preflight annual physical exams. Astronaut age prior to the long duration mission, and inflight salt intake was also included in the analysis. The group of cardiovascular variables for each crew member was compared with seven VIIP eye outcome variables collected during the immediate post‐flight period: anterior-posterior axial length of the globe measured by ultrasound and optical biometry; optic nerve sheath diameter, optic nerve diameter, and optic nerve to sheath ratio‐ each measured by ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), intraocular pressure (IOP), change in manifest refraction, mean retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) on optical coherence tomography (OCT), and RNFL of the inferior and superior retinal quadrants. Since most of the VIIP eye outcome measures were added sequentially beginning in 2005, as knowledge of the syndrome improved, data were unavailable for 22.0% of the outcome measurements. To address the missing data, we employed multivariate multiple imputation techniques with predictive mean matching methods to accumulate 200 separate imputed datasets for analysis. We were able to impute data for the 22.0% of missing VIIP eye outcomes. We then applied Rubin's rules for collapsing the statistical results across our 200 multiply imputed data sets to assess the canonical correlation between the eye outcomes and the twelve astronaut cardiovascular variables available for all 31 subjects. Results: A highly significant canonical correlation was observed among the canonical solutions (p<.00001), with an average best canonical correlation of.97. The results suggest a strong association between astronauts' measures of cardiovascular health and the seven eye outcomes of the VIIP syndrome used in this analysis. Furthermore, the "joint test" revealed a significant difference in cardiovascular profile between male and female astronauts (Prob > F = 0.00001). Overall, female astronauts demonstrated a significantly healthier cardiovascular status. Individually, the female astronauts had significantly healthier profiles on seven of twelve cardiovascular variables than the men (p values ranging from <0.0001 to <0.05). Male astronauts did not demonstrate significantly healthier values on any of the twelve cardiovascular variables measured
Stochastic-based, discrete-event progressive damage simulations of ceramic-matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures have been enabled through the development of a unique multiscale modeling tool. This effort involves coupling three independently developed software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/ Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis (FEA) program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating unit cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC. Abaqus is used at the global scale to model the overall composite structure. An Abaqus user-defined material (UMAT) interface, referred to here as "FEAMAC/CARES," was developed that enables MAC/GMC and CARES/Life to operate seamlessly with the Abaqus FEA code. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events, which incrementally progress and lead to ultimate structural failure. This report describes the FEAMAC/CARES methodology and discusses examples that illustrate the performance of the tool. A comprehensive example problem, simulating the progressive damage of laminated ceramic matrix composites under various off-axis loading conditions and including a double notched tensile specimen geometry, is described in a separate report.
The Finite Element Analysis-Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to characterize and predict the progressive damage response of silicon-carbide-fiber-reinforced reaction-bonded silicon nitride matrix (SiC/RBSN) composite laminate tensile specimens. Studied were unidirectional laminates [0] (sub 8), [10] (sub 8), [45] (sub 8), and [90] (sub 8); cross-ply laminates [0 (sub 2) divided by 90 (sub 2),]s; angled-ply laminates [plus 45 (sub 2) divided by -45 (sub 2), ]s; doubled-edge-notched [0] (sub 8), laminates; and central-hole laminates. Results correlated well with the experimental data. This work was performed as a validation and benchmarking exercise of the FEAMAC/CARES program. FEAMAC/CARES simulates stochastic-based discrete-event progressive damage of ceramic matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures. It couples three software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating-unit-cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC, and Abaqus is used to model the overall composite structure. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events that incrementally progress until ultimate structural failure.
The growing popularity of small cost effective satellites (SmallSats, CubeSats, etc.) creates the potential for a variety of new science applications involving multiple nodes functioning together or independently to achieve a task, such as swarms and constellations. As this technology develops and is deployed for missions in Low Earth Orbit and beyond, the use of delay tolerant networking (DTN) techniques may improve communication capabilities within the network. In this paper, a network hierarchy is developed from heterogeneous networks of SmallSats, surface vehicles, relay satellites and ground stations which form an integrated network. There is a tradeoff between complexity, flexibility, and scalability of user defined schedules versus autonomous routing as the number of nodes in the network increases. To address these issues, this work proposes a machine learning classifier based on DTN routing metrics. A framework is developed which will allow for the use of several categories of machine learning algorithms (decision tree, random forest and deep learning) to be applied to a dataset of historical network statistics, which allows for the evaluation of algorithm complexity versus performance to be explored. We develop the emulation of a hierarchical network, consisting of tens of nodes which form a cognitive network architecture. CORE (Common Open Research Emulator) is used to emulate the network using bundle protocol and DTN IP neighbor discovery.
Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).
Motivated by experiments in which an applied electric field translocates polynucleotides through an alpha-hemolysin protein channel causing ionic current transient blockade, a hybrid simulation model is proposed to predict the conductance properties of the open channel. Time scales corresponding to ion permeation processes are reached using the Poisson-Nemst-Planck (PNP) electro-diffusion model in which both solvent and local ion concentrations are represented as a continuum. The diffusion coefficients of the ions (K(+) and Cl(-)) input in the PNP model are, however, calculated from all-atom molecular dynamics (MD). In the MD simulations, a reduced representation of the channel is used. The channel is solvated in a 1 M KCI solution, and an external electric field is applied. The pore specific diffusion coefficients for both ionic species are reduced 5-7 times in comparison to bulk values. Significant statistical variations (17-45%) of the pore-ions diffusivities are observed. Within the statistics, the ionic diffusivities remain invariable for a range of external applied voltages between 30 and 240mV. In the 2D-PNP calculations, the pore stem is approximated by a smooth cylinder of radius approx. 9A with two constriction blocks where the radius is reduced to approx. 6A. The electrostatic potential includes the contribution from the atomistic charges. The MD-PNP model shows that the atomic charges are responsible for the rectifying behaviour and for the slight anion selectivity of the a-hemolysin pore. Independent of the hierarchy between the anion and cation diffusivities, the anionic contribution to the total ionic current will dominate. The predictions of the MD-PNP model are in good agreement with experimental data and give confidence in the present approach of bridging time scales by combining a microscopic and macroscopic model.
Concerns within the nuclear data community led to substantial increases of Neutron Data Standards (NDS) uncertainties from its previous to the current version. For example, those associated with the NDS reference cross section 239 Pu(n,f) increased from 0.6–1.6% to 1.3–1.7% from 0.1–20 MeV. These cross sections, among others, were adopted, e.g., by ENDF/B-VII.1 (previous NDS) and ENDF/B-VIII.0 (current NDS). There has been a strong desire to be able to validate these increases based on objective criteria given their impact on our understanding of various application uncertainties. Here, the “Physical Uncertainty Bounds” method (PUBs) by Vaughan et al. is applied to validate evaluated uncertainties obtained by a statistical analysis of experimental data. We investigate with PUBs whether ENDF/B-VII.1 or ENDF/B-VIII.0 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section uncertainties are more realistic given the information content used for the actual evaluation. It is shown that the associated conservative (1.5–1.8%) and minimal realistic (1.1–1.3%) uncertainty bounds obtained by PUBs enclose ENDF/B-VIII.0 uncertainties and indicate that ENDF/B-VII.1 uncertainties are underestimated.