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NASA NTRS2012

The Response of Lower Atmospheric Ozone to ENSO in Aura Measurements and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent work has revealed an ENSO-induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this feature using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show composition sensitivity in observations from NASA s Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) and a simulation to provide insight into the vertical structure of these ENSO-induced ozone changes. The ozone changes due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the extra-polar upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in MLS measurements will also be discussed.

Oman, L. D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wintertime Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere climate in E3SM

The characteristics of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their impacts on climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere are important metrics for evaluating a climate system model. Observational analyses reveal that the horizontal and vertical structures in the AO and NAO exhibit a meridional dipole and a large-scale barotropic pattern between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Historical model simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HIST) are used to identify how well it captures these major climate modes. It is found that the simulated AO and NAO modes have spatial structures similar to the observed features. In addition, the observed frequency bands in the AO and NAO-related time variability are captured well in the E3SM-HIST simulation. Associated with the positive phase in wintertime AO and NAO, zonal flow and warm advection in mid-latitude continents are enhanced, along with stronger cold flow from enhanced northerly winds over high latitudes. These features are linked to the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected by lower SLP anomalies over the Arctic and higher SLP anomalies over the mid-latitudes. In E3SM-HIST, these spatial associations and main structural features are analogous to those in observations. In the time-height evolution related to winter AO and NAO modes, it can also be seen that the simulations reproduce the downward propagating patterns in observations. Nevertheless, the vertical structures associated with AO and NAO in E3SM-HIST exhibit substantial biases in the lower stratosphere. The cause of these stratospheric biases is investigated using the strength of climatological stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and wave activity fluxes. The results herein suggest that E3SM-HIST has a reasonable skill in reproducing the observed characteristics related to the winter AO and NAO, although there exist systematic biases in the associated climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polar primary aerosols across the ocean-sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface: From sources to impacts

Primary aerosols play a critical role in polar climate systems, influencing cloud formation, precipitation, radiative balance, and surface energy budgets. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of primary aerosol sources, transformation and removal processes, and broader atmospheric impacts in polar regions, emphasizing their links to ocean and sea ice biogeochemistry. These aerosols (including sea salt, primary organic aerosol, and primary biological aerosol particles) originate from marine and cryospheric environments and are emitted through physical processes, such as wave breaking, bubble bursting, and blowing snow. Emission sources include seawater, sea ice, snow, and freshwater from river discharge and glacial runoff. Once airborne, these particles can serve as a chemical reservoir, influencing atmospheric composition and reactivity, and as seeds for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, influencing cloud microphysics and polar climate. Despite their importance, many of the processes governing primary aerosol emissions and transformations remain poorly constrained. The most pressing knowledge gaps pertain to emission processes, limited spatiotemporal observational coverage, instrumentation constraints, parameterization development, and the integration of interdisciplinary expertise. To improve our understanding of primary aerosol drivers and their response to climate, future research efforts should prioritize strategically coordinated and cross-disciplinary process studies, advancements in measurement technologies and coverage, and close collaboration between modelers and observational scientists to inform and refine model parameterizations. As polar regions continue to undergo profound changes marked by increased precipitation, reduced sea and land ice, freshening oceans, and shifting ecosystem dynamics, characterizing present-day primary aerosol populations is vital. Improved understanding will be essential for anticipating future changes in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions and their implications for polar and global climate systems.

Aerosol-cloud↗

NASA NTRS1988

A Landsat Thematic Mapper investigation of the geobotanical relationships in the northern spruce-fir forest, Mt. Moosilauke, New Hampshire

This investigation, in the northern spruce-fir forest at Mt. Moosilauke, NH, indicates that Landsat TM data can be used to distinguish between and map major vegetation zones. Principal components analysis can be used to reduce the dimensionality of the TM data; and in this simpler spectral space, it is easier to visualize the discrimination between major vegetation zones: the northern hardwoods zone, spruce-fir zone, fir zone, and alpine tundra zone. The moisture stress index highlights areas of heavy forest damage (fir waves), but does not correlate with low levels of damage in the mixed, background forest at Mt. Moosilauke. Care must be taken to avoid confusion between high-elevation climatically-stressed vegetation (normal krummholz forest) and damaged lower elevation forests, both of which have similar TM5/TM4 ratio values.

Torcoletti, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Multiyear On-orbit Calibration and Performance of Terra MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands

Since launch in December 1999, Terra MODIS has been making continuous Earth observations for more than seven years. It has produced a broad range of land, ocean, and atmospheric science data products for improvements in studies of global climate and environmental change. Among its 36 spectral bands, there are 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) and 16 thermal emissive bands (TEB). MODIS thermal emissive bands cover the mid-wave infrared (MWIR) and long-wave infrared (LWIR) spectral regions with wavelengths from 3.7 to 14.4pm. They are calibrated on-orbit using an on-board blackbody (BB) with its temperature measured by a set of thermistors on a scan-by-scan basis. This paper will provide a brief overview of MODIS TEB calibration and characterization methodologies and illustrate on-board BB functions and TEB performance over more than seven years of on-orbit operation and calibration. Discussions will be focused on TEB detector short-term stability and noise characterization, and changes in long-term response (or system gain). Results show that Terra MODIS BB operation has been extremely stable since launch. When operated at its nominal controlled temperature of 290K, the BB temperature variation is typically less than +0.30mK on a scan-by-scan basis and there has been no time-dependent temperature drift. In addition to excellent short-term stability, most TEB detectors continue to meet or exceed their specified noise characterization requirements, thus enabling calibration accuracy and science data product quality to be maintained. Excluding the noisy detectors identified pre-launch and those that occurred post-launch, the changes in TEB responses have been less than 0.7% on an annual basis. The optical leak corrections applied to bands 32-36 have been effective and stable over the entire mission

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of the Mid-Winter Arctic Stratosphere to QBO Width in a Simplified Chemistry-Climate Model

In the stratosphere, equatorial winds continually alternate between easterly (westward) and westerly (eastward). This phenomenon is called the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The average QBO cycle (Le. easterly to westerly to easterly) lasts approximately 27 months. Large-scale 'planetary' waves can only travel upward through the atmosphere when equatorial winds are westerly, and below a critical threshold. Thus, the amount of wave energy that reaches the middle atmosphere depends on the wind direction. When equatorial winds are easterly, wave energy is concentrated at higher latitudes, weakening the high-latitude eastward wind feature known as the 'polar jet' during the Northern Hemisphere winter season. Holton and Tan (1980) used atmospheric observations to show the dependence of the strength of the northern polar jet on the phase (easterly vs. westerly) of the QBO. This modeling study finds that the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) varies from one cycle to the next, and that variation in QBO width may exert equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the QBO wind direction. High latitude winds are weaker and ozone values are higher in a wide-QBO model simulation, as compared with a realistic simulation. This result implies that a relatively wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?

The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).

Yung, Yuk L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting and Stabilizing Machine-Learning Parametrizations of Convection

Neural networks are a promising technique for parameterizing subgrid-scale physics (e.g., moist atmospheric convection) in coarse-resolution climate models, but their lack of interpretability and reliability prevents widespread adoption. For instance, it is not fully understood why neural network parameterizations often cause dramatic instability when coupled to atmospheric fluid dynamics. This paper introduces tools for interpreting their behavior that are customized to the parameterization task. First, we assess the nonlinear sensitivity of a neural network to lower-tropospheric stability and the midtropospheric moisture, two widely studied controls of moist convection. Second, we couple the linearized response functions of these neural networks to simplified gravity wave dynamics, and analytically diagnose the corresponding phase speeds, growth rates, wavelengths, and spatial structures. To demonstrate their versatility, these techniques are tested on two sets of neural networks, one trained with a super-parameterized version of the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) and the second with a near-global cloud-resolving model (GCRM). Additionally, even though the SPCAM simulation has a warmer climate than the cloud-resolving model, both neural networks predict stronger heating/drying in moist and unstable environments, which is consistent with observations. Moreover, the spectral analysis can predict that instability occurs when GCMs are coupled to networks that support gravity waves that are unstable and have phase speeds larger than 5 m s -1 . In contrast, standing unstable modes do not cause catastrophic instability. Using these tools, differences between the SPCAM-trained versus GCRM-trained neural networks are analyzed, and strategies to incrementally improve both of their coupled online performance unveiled.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variability in Modelled Airborne Dust Mineralogy Derived from Global Soil Composition Uncertainties

Dust aerosols consist on a variety of minerals with different physic and chemical properties. As such, they interact with short and long wave radiation, potentially form clouds, act as nutrients modulating biogeochemical cycles, or influence atmospheric chemistry, differently. Most current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect the complexity in dust composition, mainly due to computational constraints, but also to the existing uncertainties in the size resolved composition of parent soils, the resulting distribution of minerals in airborne dust, and the scarcity of observations to constrain them. Within this work, we assess the variability of global dust composition due to uncertainties in the characterization of the parent soil mineralogy. To that end, we consider two available global soil mineralogy atlases, developed by Claquin et al. (1999) –C1999- and Journet et al. (2014) –J2014-, which represent respectively 8 and 12 relevant minerals for climate (namely: illite, smectite/montmorillonite, kaolinite, calcite, gypsum, hematite, quartz, and feldspars in C1999, and those plus chlorite, vermiculite, goethite, and mica in J2014). Thanks to a recently developed feature of the MONARCH atmospheric-chemistry model, we are able to explicitly resolve the minerals’ atmospheric cycle. Therefore, we define two global experiments to assess changes on airborne dust composition attributed to the soil mineralogy assumptions and provide a measure of their variability. We also perform a preliminary evaluation of the global mineralogy results against available observations of mineral fractions in surface dust concentration. Our results will inform the climate modelling community about the potential variability in dust composition, an aspect that will gain relevance as ESMs continue growing in complexity and new processes to better characterize aerosols’ forcing or biogeochemical cycles are added. Further observational constraints, such as those that will derive from the EMIT NASA mission on soil composition or the FRAGMENT experimental campaigns on airborne dust characterization, will be key in the near future to improve our understanding of the impact of dust mineralogy on fundamental climate features.

Dust aerosols↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applied Uses of MERRA Reanalyses: Current and Future Prospects

During the initial planning of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the project was envisioned to become a tool for applied sciences and decision makers, as well as weather and climate research. MERRA was the first reanalysis to provide data at 1 hourly frequencies. After discussions with wind energy users, 50m above the surface winds were included in the data collection to begin to represent the environment at the turbine height. MERRA-2 was the first reanalysis to include interactive and assimilated aerosols. From these, PM 1, 2.5 and 10 records have been computed and contribute to the climate and health sector. The US Center for Disease Control is accessing MERRA-2 data for comparison along with their health data. MERRA-2 Extreme Indices have been computed from the high frequency data (e.g. precipitation maxima, heat waves and fire weather). These have been used to characterize the changing extremes in the United States and around the globe as well as the weather associated with the extremes. The next-generation, MERRA-21C, includes increased resolution (25km) and continues to provide innovative Earth system data. For example, a boundary layer collection will provide constant height level data starting at 100m, continuing up to 4000m. This will provide detailed information about the boundary layer processes that greatly affect the biosphere. Chemical tracers for constituents are included in the system. The ensemble data assimilation is run with 32 members, and the variance for critical variables are stored. We will explore the use of this variance as one measure of uncertainty relevant for applied uses, which has not been included in any MERRA reanalysis. We will discuss use case scenarios developed to engage with the energy and financial sectors, to better understand their needs for climate data. Prospects for further downscaling of reanalyses will also be explored.

Michael Bosilovich↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California

Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California [Slides]

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1986

An introduction to three-dimensional climate modeling

The development and use of three-dimensional computer models of the earth's climate are discussed. The processes and interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice are examined. The basic theory of climate simulation which includes the fundamental equations, models, and numerical techniques for simulating the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice is described. Simulated wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea ice distribution data are presented and compared to observational data. The responses of the climate to various environmental changes, such as variations in solar output or increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are modeled. Future developments in climate modeling are considered. Information is also provided on the derivation of the energy equation, the finite difference barotropic forecast model, the spectral transform technique, and the finite difference shallow water waved equation model.

Washington, W. M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Introduction The Role of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

Climate impacts on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the need to ensure food security for a growing population. A special challenge is posed by the changes in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves, droughts, and episodic rainstorms already underway in many parts of the world. Changes in production are directly linked to such variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season, and often to offseason changes in weather affecting soil-water storage and availability to crops. This is not an isolated problem but one of both global and regional importance, because of impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as consequences for the world food trade system. This two-part set the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments is the first to be entirely devoted to AgMIP (www.agmip.org). AgMIP is a major international research program focused on climate change and agriculture. The goal of the two parts is to advance the field by providing detailed information on new simulation techniques and assessments being conducted by this program. It presents information about new methods of global and regional integrated assessment, results from agricultural regions, and adaptation strategies for maintaining food security under changing climate conditions.

security↗

NASA NTRS2013

Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Simple Stratosphere-Mesosphere Extension of the Held-Suarez Forcing for Dynamical Cores

A simple extension of the Held-Suarez (H-S) forcing that is capable of producing a realistic general circulation not only in the troposphere but also the stratosphere and the mesosphere will be presented. Similar to the original H-S forcing, an annual-mean like radiative equilibrium temperature is used. This extension is an ideal test bed for gravity wave drag parameterizations. It is also an inexpensive test bed for studying the mechanism of the Quasi-Biannual oscillations (QBO) and the "age spectrum" of the dynamical core formulation. The "mean climate" as well as the natural variability of the middle atmosphere as simulated by the NASA Data Assimilation Office finite-volume dynamical core under this forcing will be shown.

Lin, S.-J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of Anomalies and Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES and Computed from Geophysical Parameters Derived from Analysis of AIRS/AMSU Data

Anomalies and trends of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650 cm-1 to 2670 cm-1. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2 cm-1 to2750 cm-1 computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version 5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/m2/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/m2/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over the time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong E1 Nino/ La Nina cycle. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160E and 120W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR.

Susskind, Joel↗