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At least 433 records · Page 24

Enhancement of microbiome management by machine learning for biological wastewater treatment

Here we propose to develop microbiome-based machine learning models to predict the response of biological wastewater treatment systems to environmental or operational disturbances or to design specific microbiomes to achieve a desired system function. These machine learning models can be used to enhance the stability of microbiome-based biological systems and warn against the failure of these systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

System for indicating direction of intruder aircraft

A pilot warning indicator system consisting of a flashing beacon, a detector, and an indicating panel is described. The detector responds to radiant energy from another aircraft's beacon by energizing particular signal lamps positioned in the periphery of the pilot's normal field of view. Since the positions of the energized lamps are related to the direction from which radiant energy is received by the detector, the pilot is apprised of the relative position of an intruder aircraft without any shift in visual fixation.

Story, A. W.↗

Early Warning: Development of Confidential Incident Reporting Systems

Accidents hardly ever happen without warning. The combination, or sequence, of failures and mistakes that cause an accident may indeed be unique but the individual failures and mistakes rarely are. In the USA in 1974 the crews on two different aircraft misunderstood the same aeronautical chart and descended towards their destination dangerously early towards a mountain. The first crew were in good weather conditions and could see the mountain and resolved their misinterpretation of the chart. The second crew six weeks later were not so lucky. In cloud they had no clues to point out their mistake nor the presence of the mountain. The resulting crash and the ensuing inquiry, which brought to light the previous incident, shocked the country but gave it the impetus to instigate a safety reporting system. This system eventually became the NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The programme collects incident reports from pilots, controllers, mechanics, cabin attendants and many others involved in aviation operations. By disseminating this safety information the ASRS has helped enormously to give US airlines and airspace the highest safety standards. Accident prevention is a goal sought by everyone in the aviation industry and establishing effective incident reporting programmes can go a long way toward achieving that goal. This article will describe the steps and issues required to establish an incident reporting system. The authors summarize the lessons learned from the ASRS, now in its twentieth year of operation and from the Confidential Human Factors Reporting (HER) Programme run by British Airways, an airline that is a recognized world leader in safety reporting and analysis. The differences between government and airline operation of confidential safety reporting systems will be addressed.

OLeary, Mike J.↗

A Project Lifetime Approach to the Management of Induced Seismicity Risk at Geologic Carbon Storage Sites

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method that can help reduce atmospheric CO 2 by sequestering it into the subsurface. Large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage, however, may be accompanied by induced seismicity. We present a project lifetime approach to address the induced seismicity risk at these geologic storage sites. This approach encompasses both technical and nontechnical stakeholder issues related to induced seismicity and spans the time period from the initial consideration phase to postclosure. These recommendations are envisioned to serve as general guidelines, setting expectations for operators, regulators, and the public. They contain a set of seven actionable focus areas, the purpose of which are to deal proactively with induced seismicity issues. Although each geologic carbon storage site will be unique and will require a custom approach, these general best practice recommendations can be used as a starting point to any site-specific plan for how to systematically evaluate, communicate about, and mitigate induced seismicity at a particular reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Solar Energetic Particle Warnings from a Coronagraph

We report here the concept of using near-real time observations from a coronagraph to provide early warning of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) and the possible onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The 1 January 2016, fast CME, and its associated SEP event are cited as an example. The CME was detected by the ground-based K-Cor coronagraph at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory and by the SOHO Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph. The near-real-time availability of the high-cadence K-Cor observations in the low corona leads to an obvious question: Why has no one attempted to use a coronagraph as an early warning device for SEP events? The answer is that the low image cadence and the long latency of existing spaceborne coronagraphs make them valid for archival studies but typically unsuitable for near-real-time forecasting. The January 2016 event provided favorable CME viewing geometry and demonstrated that the primary component of a prototype ground-based system for SEP warnings is available several hours on most days. We discuss how a conceptual CME-based warning system relates to other techniques, including an estimate of the relative SEP warning times, and how such a system might be realized.

St Cyr, O. C.↗

Thunderstorm monitoring and lightning warning, operational applications of the Safir system

During the past years a new range of studies have been opened by the application of electromagnetic localization techniques to the field of thunderstorm remote sensing. VHF localization techniques were used in particular for the analysis of lightning discharges and gave access to time resolved 3-D images of lightning discharges within thunderclouds. Detection and localization techniques developed have been applied to the design of the SAFIR system. This development's main objective was the design of an operational system capable of assessing and warning in real time for lightning hazards and potential thunderstorm hazards. The SAFIR system main detection technique is the long range interferometric localization of thunderstorm electromagnetic activity; the system performs the localization of intracloud and cloud to ground lightning discharges and the analysis of the characteristics of the activity.

Richard, Philippe↗

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Examples of Nonconservatism in the CARE 3 Program

This paper presents parameter regions in the CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation version 3) computer program where the program overestimates the reliability of a modeled system without warning the user. Five simple models of fault-tolerant computer systems are analyzed; and, the parameter regions where reliability is overestimated are given. The source of the error in the reliability estimates for models which incorporate transient fault occurrences was not readily apparent. However, the source of much of the error for models with permanent and intermittent faults can be attributed to the choice of values for the run-time parameters of the program.

Dotson, Kelly J.↗

Status of turbulence Prediction System's AWAS 3

The status of the Airborne Warning and Avoidance System 3 (AWAS 3) is reported in viewgraph form. Information is given on flight tests and FAA certification. Included is a description of the flight test of a passive infrared system that achieved the first ever advanced warning of an in-flight windshear encounter. The infrared system recorded the detection of the windshear with a 35 second advance warning. The data recorded in-flight by the infrared system was later compared to and found to agree with the data recorded by the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) and the in-situ air data.

Adamson, Pat↗

Increasing the reliability of labor of railroad engineers

It has been shown that the group of problems related to temporary overloads still require serious development with respect to further automating the basic control operation - programmed selection of speed and braking. The problem of systems for warning the engineer about the condition of the unseen track segments remains a very serious one. Systems of hygenic support of the engineer also require constructive development. The problems of ensuring the reliability of work of engineers in periods of low information load, requiring motor acts, can basically be considered theoretically solved.

Genes, V. S.↗

Human factors in cockpit automation

The rapid advance in microprocessor technology has made it possible to automate many functions that were previously performed manually. Several research areas have been identified which are basic to the question of the implementation of automation in the cockpit. One of the identified areas deserving further research is warning and alerting systems. Modern transport aircraft have had one after another warning and alerting systems added, and computer-based cockpit systems make it possible to add even more. Three major areas of concern are: input methods (including voice, keyboard, touch panel, etc.), output methods and displays (from traditional instruments to CRTs, to exotic displays including the human voice), and training for automation. Training for operating highly automatic systems requires considerably more attention than it has been given in the past. Training methods have not kept pace with the advent of flight-deck automation.

Wiener, E. L.↗

Certification Strategies using Run-Time Safety Assurance for Part 23 Autopilot Systems

Part 23 aircraft operation, and in particular general aviation, is relatively unsafe when compared to other common forms of vehicle travel. Currently, there exists technologies that could increase safety statistics for these aircraft; however, the high burden and cost of performing the requisite safety critical certification processes for these systems limits their proliferation. For this reason, many entities, including the Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, and the US Air Force, are considering new options for certification for technologies that will improve aircraft safety. Of particular interest, are low cost autopilot systems for general aviation aircraft, as these systems have the potential to positively and significantly affect safety statistics. This paper proposes new systems and techniques, leveraging run-time verification, for the assurance of general aviation autopilot systems, which would be used to supplement the current certification process and provide a viable path for near-term low-cost implementation. In addition, discussions on preliminary experimentation and building the assurance case for a system, based on these principles, is provided.

automatic collision avoidance↗

Compressed air demand-type firefighter's breathing system, volume 1

The commercial availability of lightweight high pressure compressed air vessels has resulted in a lightweight firefighter's breathing apparatus. The improved apparatus, and details of its design and development are described. The apparatus includes a compact harness assembly, a backplate mounted pressure reducer assembly, a lightweight bubble-type facemask with a mask mounted demand breathing regulator. Incorporated in the breathing regulator is exhalation valve, a purge valve and a whistle-type low pressure warning that sounds only during inhalation. The pressure reducer assembly includes two pressure reducers, an automatic transfer valve and a signaling device for the low pressure warning. Twenty systems were fabricated, tested, refined through an alternating development and test sequence, and extensively examined in a field evaluation program. Photographs of the apparatus are included.

Sullivan, J. L.↗

The Earth Science Afternoon Constellation: Preparing for Autonomous but Coordinated Operations

This paper describes how the challenges of coordinating the autonomous operations of geographically dispersed mission control centers for several small and large satellites are being overcome. The Earth Science Afternoon Constellation, also referred to as the "A-Train", is an international grouping of five NASA satellites (two major NASA EOS missions and three NASA/Earth System Science Pathfinder missions) and one French satellite orbiting in close proximity. This grouping of satellites provides scientists with the opportunity to perform coincident observations using data from two or more instruments on various satellites with measurements taken at approximately the same time. Three of the six missions are currently on-orbit, with the two missions expected to join the constellation later this year and one mission in 2007. The operational challenges are daunting for several reasons. There are several Mission Control Centers (widely separated on two continents), operating autonomously under tight budget constraints. All of the Mission Control Centers have reasons to be concerned about safety while flying in close proximity to other satellites, but most Centers did not have the resources or the desire to address this concern alone - the interfaces are too numerous and anticipated operations too costly. Clearly, an efficient approach was needed. This paper describes the steps taken to make this Earth science constellation a reality. Agreements were forged to allow the Mission Control Centers to maintain their autonomy, while ensuring their satellite's safety. Each member mission in the constellation operates independently in accordance with its own mission requirements, but the member missions have agreed to coordinate their operations, i.e., orbital positions and control to ensure the safety of the entire constellation. A centralized system was developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to collect, analyze, and distribute ephemeris data used by each of the mission teams to determine the positions of the satellites in the constellation. The system issues warnings regarding possible dangerous configurations, eliminating the need for redundant capabilities at each Mission Control Center. On-orbit contingency situations were identified and analyzed; agreements were reached in advance of contingency operations to ensure that coordination between the Mission Control Centers can be handled expeditiously and fairly. In this manner, recovery from anomalous situations can be more quickly realized, thereby increasing the science return and reducing costs. The process used to develop these contingency procedures and the systems used to facilitate the contingency resolution are described as well.

Case, Warren↗