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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Step Toward Working with Untrusted Ground Stations

We are witnessing a shift toward outsourcing satellite and ground station services to third-party commercial entities. As with any enterprise, these third parties can be vulnerable to cyber compromise, including image tampering and deepfake injection. The multimedia community is beginning to establish standards and technology to enable authenticity verification of multimedia created and edited by others. While appealing to the remote sensing domain, the nature of raw satellite imagery is incompatible with the proposed change verification tools, resulting in the need for a means to validate updates made to image products. We present a simple method for verifying a specific class of algorithms. Our inverse processing approach eliminates the need to see the original image as the reversed data can be checked against an original digital signature. We demonstrate our approach on basic image restoration routines and conclude with a discussion on open challenges and next steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

MOSCATO Development and Integration in Fiscal Year 2022

During FY21, we conducted ongoing development work for the MOSCATO (Molten Salt Chemistry and Transport) solver. The code development work primarily consisted of transitioning capabilities from the original version of the solver, which was written in OpenFOAM, into Nek5000. In doing so, a fast, highly parallelizable solver was created that is capable of complex chemistry and corrosion simulations for engineering-scale molten salt systems. The Nek5000 version of MOSCATO is now fully featured and capable of higher-fidelity simulations than were previously possible. Demonstration cases including a thermal convection loop have been simulated to test these new capabilities. We built upon the work for FY22 and improved the code from several different perspectives. First, we improved the user interface by adding a new component to the official Nek5000 input file (.par). This new part contains documents parameters like, salt properties (density, viscosity, Cp, thermal conductivity), diffusion coefficients, standard potential, etc. Second, we built a conversion script to extract salt properties from the MSTDB-TP salt database and write to MOSCATO input file. Third, we migrated the code to NekRS, which is the GPU branch of Nek5000 and suitable for next generation supercomputers. Verification and Validation (V&V) work was also continued in FY22. Two tasks were performed. The first V&V task involved the validation of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equation solver and Butler-Volmer electrode kinetics, by comparing with numerical and experimental data about thermoelectric cells. The second task involved the comparisons to corrosion results from a thermal convection loop run during the MSRE era. Satisfactory agreement was obtained from both tasks.

Yuan, Haomin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancements in Multiphysics Microdepletion Analysis of an eVinci TM -like Microreactor Leveraging OpenMC-CRAB Workflow

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) are a class of nuclear reactor technology, characterized by reduced dimensions, modular design, and reduced power output in contrast to conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). MRs are proposed for supplying electricity and eventual process heat to remote locations, such as military installations and disaster-affected areas. Current research work sponsored by the US Department of Energy Microreactor Program (MRP) is devoted to the development of novel modeling and simulation tools to better support MR vendors and regulatory bodies. Notably, the NRC is projected to utilize the CRAB multiphysics software driver for executing both design and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. Furthermore, the NRC has been utilizing the MELCOR code to calculate mechanistic source terms during accidents. Since MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power profiles under accident conditions, which theoretically can be derived from CRAB, the goal is to establish a comprehensive CRAB-MELCOR computational framework. Past work was focused on testing and demonstrating CRAB's capability to generate results that can be used to inform mechanistic source term calculations in MELCOR. In particular, a computational workflow leveraging OpenMC-generated microscopic cross sections and CRAB was first applied to perform multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation followed by an accident scenario for a stylized microreactor problem. In fiscal year 2024, the research work has been focused on applying the OpenMC-CRAB workflow, which was first tested in fiscal year 2023, to a realistic 3D heat-pipe cooled MR problem representative of the eVinci TM design. The latter computational problem was developed with inputs from WEC to conserve selected neutronic and thermal characteristics of the eVinci TM design without releasing proprietary data. The results of this simulation, encompassing isotopic inventory, power density distribution, and kinetic parameters, will inform both MELCOR and the WEC-developed FATE code for mechanistic source terms calculations. The results from the two codes will then be compared for code verification purposes. This report contains the design characteristics of the realist heat pipe cooled microreactor developed as a use-case for the verification exercise, and the current results for the multiphysics microscopic depletion performed with the OpenMC-CRAB workflow. The results include eigenvalue as a function of time, power distribution at EOL, in addition to nuclides inventory's time evolution and spatial distribution. Finally, we report improvements to the workflow efficiency achieved through a collaboration with the NEAMS programs. Through this collaborative effort, we were able to strongly decrease the computational time for the multiphysics microdepletion calculation (i.e., from 17.4 hours to 5.7 hours on 280 processors) in addition to simplifying the interface to generate isotopics spatial distribution utilizable by FATE and MELCOR. Future work, including the improvement of the current microscopic cross-sections' library and the simulation of an accident scenario at EOL, is also discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of ZPPR-15 experimental data for VTR software validation

As part of the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) program, extensive validation work is being performed to demonstrate the fidelity of the Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software package presently used for the core design studies. It is anticipated that this software will be also used for initial operations although additional software may be introduced at a later time to supplement or replace some components. The validation work was focused on accumulating reactor models that are consistent with the VTR and thus can be used to validate the accuracy of predictions made by the software used to design and operate the VTR. The U.S. does not have any active experimental facilities that can neutronically mockup the VTR core design. However, in the past, the U.S. had extensive experimental facilities for fast reactor neutronics. In that regard, the ZPPR-15 experiments carried out at ANL during the 1980s work best because the fuel form is closest to the VTR design, there is a considerable amount of processed data available for use, and existing staff are already familiar with the experimental machine and measurements. Because of previous collaborative work, many of the ZPPR-15 loadings of interest have already been processed into MCNP and preliminary ARC models, and a full uncertainty quantification has already been completed for many of the ZPPR-15 measurements. This manuscript covers the recent analysis work on the ZPPR-15 experiments and compares it with the experimental results. With respect to the ARC software components, this manuscript focuses on validation of the MC 2 , DIF3D and GAMSOR using the ZPPR-15 experimental data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disposition of Solids from Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Biomass: Current Understanding, Research Gaps, and Opportunities

Characteristics of solid residuals generated during hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of biomass are reported to establish disposition options for these residuals to reduce liability or barriers to commercialization of HTL. HTL solids from pilot scale are reported and compared to existing HTL solids literature for a variety of biomass feedstocks and HTL configurations, noting differences among literature HTL solids due to solids collection methods. Reported analyses include CHNOS, moisture, ash, inorganics by Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP), and High Heating Value (HHV). HTL solids are determined to be substantially compatible with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) disposal regulations within existing data. Disposition and valorization routes are identified, yet combustion as valorization is determined to be not economically beneficial. Further, research gaps are identified, which include the need for future research to be performed on HTL solids that are representative of a continuous, commercializable flowsheet; verification that specific HTL solids meet EPA disposal requirements; exploration of valorization options; and the need for invention of continuous HTL solids separations/management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guidelines for Broadband Seismometer Testing

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty mandates the four verification technologies to be used by the International Monitoring System (IMS) to monitor compliance to the Treaty. These technologies are seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide. Operational manuals for each of these technologies specify the requirements that equipment installed at IMS stations must meet for data from said stations to be accepted by the International Data Center. Following a model in which a revised set of infrasound sensor specifications and accompanying test procedures were developed in an international collaboration overseen by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, the same process was recently followed for seismometers potentially of use by the IMS. This document, a product of that collaboration, defines key concepts and recommends test procedures to be followed to characterize broadband seismometers in a consistent and standardized way. Results from these test procedures can be used to verify that a seismometer meets the manufacturers stated specifications and IMS requirements. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The writers of this document would like to acknowledge Charles R. Hutt, John R. Evans, Fred Followill, Robert L. Nigbor, and Erhard Wielandt, the authors of the 2009 Guidelines for Standardized Testing of Broadband Seismometers and Accelerometers funded by the U.S. Department of Interior, on which this document is based. Although this document is limited in scope to seismometers and much of the document has been updated, the structure remains essentially the same.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Improvements of Fire Station 71

Since 2018, the City of Shawnee, Kansas has completed two phases of the State of Kansas Facility Conservation Improvement Program (FCIP), an initiative that guarantees operational cost and energy savings through targeted construction improvements on City facilities and infrastructure. The City is currently in the third phase of this FCIP, where one of the projects included an investment in energy improvements for Fire Station 71 (FS 71). The City partnered with Navitas, an Energy Service Company (ESCO), to implement a Photovoltaic Solar Array on FS71. The purpose of this project was to invest in sustainable building improvements with Energy Conservation Measures (ECM) to bring cost savings to the City and to provide sustainable benefits to the residents of Shawnee. In the first task of the project, Navitas collaborated with the City of Shawnee and the Community Development Department to determine the optimal layout and schedule for the installation of the solar array on FS 71. In the second task of the project, Navitas installed the 99.8 kW DC Photovoltaic solar array system. This system installation comprised of racking, inverters, optimizers, load center, and disconnect, which were all installed at a total ECM price of $\$$247,948. The third task focused on start-up and commissioning of the array. Navitas installed a real-time data analytics information management system integrated with utility meters, which evaluates the operations of the utility system and verifies operation of equipment and ensures optimum operation for energy efficiency. In the final task of this project, this analytics system was used for monitoring and verification, which will continue to be used to evaluate the success of the project for the coming years. The primary goal of the project was to install the 99.8 kW DC PV solar array at FS 71 to demonstrate the viability of solar energy systems in essential municipal facilities. Fire stations are energy demanding structures, as they require a constant intake of power and have a high baseline energy usage. The success of solar arrays on a fire station exemplifies their energy efficiency and effectiveness and displays their potential for application on other city facilities. By installing a solar array at such a facility, the City sought not only to offset electricity usage but also to serve as a model for ECMs in other municipal facilities and infrastructure projects. From an economic standpoint, this project demonstrates the feasibility of renewable energy at the municipal level. The total project cost of $\$$247,948 was split evenly between city funds and award funding, minimizing financial risk while ensuring guaranteed long-term savings. Any excess savings that are beyond the guaranteed minimums remain with the city, which enables future investment in sustainable energy initiatives. This project provides many benefits to the public. In addition to reducing the environmental footprint of city operations, it lowers taxpayer-funded utility spending and improves the energy security of a critical facility. The knowledge gained from this implementation motivates the City to focus on similar efforts across other public facilities in future FCIP phases and other City projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

EMT data generation

The integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) in power systems is accelerating, bringing with it significant benefits such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved grid resilience, and increased energy independence. Despite these advantages, the widespread adoption of IBRs introduces several challenges, including issues related to grid stability, increased operational complexity, and the need for updated regulatory frameworks. To address these challenges, IEEE released Standard 2800 in 2022, which sets forth the necessary interconnection capabilities and performance criteria for IBRs connected to transmission and sub-transmission systems. This standard outlines the performance requirements to ensure the reliable integration of IBRs into the bulk power system. Furthermore, in 2023, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) published a reliability guideline for electromagnetic transient (EMT) modeling of BPS-connected IBRs. This guideline provides recommendations for developing EMT model requirements, performing model quality checks, and implementing verification practices specifically for EMT models representing BPS-connected inverter-based resources in reliability studies conducted by transmission planners and planning coordinators. These standards and guidelines have a profound impact on EMT studies for transmission networks, influencing system stability analyses, grid recovery and resynchronization processes, fault ride-through evaluations, protection and coordination strategies, advanced control methodologies, and the inclusion of IBRs in transient models of transmission networks. As a result, the generation of EMT data is crucial for conducting various transient-based studies to understand the impact of IBRs. EMT data generation use cases serve as the basis for scenarios in event detection and identification use cases, providing comprehensive details about EMT data generation for transmission grids with inverter-based resources. These use cases supply sufficient training and validation datasets for subsequent EMT analysis algorithms.

Xia, Qianxue↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating FRAM v.6.1 with LANL and Euratom data

The United States Department of Energy and the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) collaborate to test, evaluate, and improve the performance of the FRAM 6.1 code with various nuclear materials, especially mixed oxide (MOX) containing an isotopic blend of uranium and very high burnup plutonium. This joint effort is intended to promote effective implementation of the FRAM 6.1 code into nuclear material verification methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy and power quality measurement for electrical distribution in AC and DC microgrid buildings

Today's selection of DC microgrid buildings features a diverse set of electrical topologies and turnkey solutions, each with specific design trade-offs and optimizations. Designers desperately need standardized metrics and procedures for measurement and verification (M&V) to analyze and compare the advantages of each DC solution to traditional AC building networks. This work develops M&V procedures for quantifying and comparing the energy efficiency and power quality in buildings. To calculate full-building efficiency, this work introduces the measurement-informed modeling method, a procedure that develops and refines a building's energy model with metered data. To quantify power quality, this work defines a new voltage quality index that applies to both AC and DC buildings. This article describes the equipment, instrumentation, and operation necessary to calculate the efficiency and power quality. It then demonstrates these methods with a set of field tests. We report these M&V procedures can ultimately be used to compare and improve the efficiency and power quality of various DC topologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of Macroscopic Dynamics in Three-Dimensional Plasma Configurations (Final Technical Report)

A numerical simulation-based study to investigate the stability properties of inherently three-dimensional plasma magnetic configurations is presented. These configurations, called stellarators and heliotrons, use external helical coils to provide the twisting magnetic field that is required to confine ionized plasma particles. In contrast to the tokamak configuration, which nominally has the property of axisymmetry, electrical current does not need to be induced in stellarator and heliotron plasma. Experiments have shown that these three-dimensional configurations are remarkably robust to macroscopic instability, even when driven to relatively high levels of plasma pressure. Our understanding of how the plasma is able to withstand macroscopic instability will be enhanced by the work proposed here. The effort will generalize existing numerical modeling capability, and it will apply the new capability to model macroscopic dynamics in these three-dimensional configurations. The development work has been applied to the NIMROD simulation code (https://nimrodteam.org) that was originally based on axisymmetric problem domains. It has been generalized to accommodate the three-dimensional shaping of the plasma volume in stellarators and heliotrons. Its use of equilibrium data has also been generalized, and the implementation allows different numerical representation of the magnetic field. Analysis has been performed to inform the selection of numerical methods, and a method to accelerate the iterative solution of the necessary algebraic systems has been developed and implemented. Verification of the new NIMSTELL code on benchmark problems has also been an important part of the effort.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

OC6 Phase Ia: CFD Simulations of the Free-Decay Motion of the DeepCwind Semisubmersible

Currently, the design of floating offshore wind systems is primarily based on mid-fidelity models with empirical drag forces. The tuning of the model coefficients requires data from either experiments or high-fidelity simulations. As part of the OC6 (Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation, and unCertainty (OC6) is a project under the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30 framework) project, the present investigation explores the latter option. A verification and validation study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of the DeepCwind semisubmersible undergoing free-decay motion is performed. Several institutions provided CFD results for validation against the OC6 experimental campaign. The objective is to evaluate whether the CFD setups of the participants can provide valid estimates of the hydrodynamic damping coefficients needed by mid-fidelity models. The linear and quadratic damping coefficients and the equivalent damping ratio are chosen as metrics for validation. Large numerical uncertainties are estimated for the linear and quadratic damping coefficients; however, the equivalent damping ratios are more consistently predicted with lower uncertainty. Some difference is observed between the experimental and CFD surge-decay motion, which is caused by mechanical damping not considered in the simulations that likely originated from the mooring setup, including a Coulomb-friction-type force. Overall, the simulations and the experiment show reasonable agreement, thus demonstrating the feasibility of using CFD simulations to tune mid-fidelity models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Atmospheric Transport of Particles

A new version of the Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) model has been developed. This report fully characterizes the new model. IAT is designed to model heat release into the atmosphere that contains contaminated particles. The heat release forms a buoyant puff or plume. Buoyancy is quickly dissipated in 10's to 100's of seconds through drag and entrainment of ambient air. The final location of contaminant particles in the atmosphere after dissipation of abnormal heat is an important input to long term transportation codes such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) code. Ultimately the settling of contaminants after long term transport provides a basis for estimating health consequences. In comparison to the old version, the new model includes explicit simulation of particles, newly formulated equations of motion for a rising puff, and a new plume model. The plume model releases many instances of a single puff along a single trajectory in a way that balances energy released over a longer period than would be appropriate for a single puff. The puff model has additions for vorticity, turbulence, virtual mass, drag, and entrainment. The particle model leads to direct interfacing between IAT and the long-term transport code HYSPLIT. Previously, particle locations were given a pattern based on IAT's puff trajectory with no particle simulation. Now, particles are explicitly simulated, and 3-D spatial distributions of particles are output based on final positions. Ballistic particles are thrown outward at high velocity from explosive events and tend to hit the ground before the end of the simulation. Non-ballistic particles tend to get pulled into the rising puff s ring of vorticity with some escaping to ambient conditions as buoyant energy dissipates. A new model verification and validation effort was made for the new plume model. The Wallops Island Solid Rocket Propellant (SRP) fire plume was extracted to a 3-D transient dataset. After calibration, the model performs better than previous single puff attempts. Even so, error levels in the process used to estimate location and ambient weather conditions approach 30%. This leads to the conclusion that unplanned photogrammetry evaluations of the IAT model are useful but not sufficiently accurate to quantify model parameters. Like previous attempts, the vertical motion entrainment parameters come out much too high in comparison to values for other studies in the literature. It is suspected that a new model of shear entrainment would alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, IAT already has more calibration parameters than the data comparisons thus far can resolve with statistical certainty. This underscores the need to verify and validate the IAT model using detailed CFD studies that allow ideal statistical comparison with the IAT model for hundreds of cases. Even so, validation by comparison to carefully planned experiments (i.e. with acceptable error levels) is also necessary because the dynamics of entrainment are at a sub-grid level for CFD. Though better validation and verification are most important, many new enhancements are still envisioned for future IAT development. These include particle rain out due to condensation and agglomeration of water, direct connection to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather dataset, dynamic weather conditions, including ambient particle entrainment into the puff, and detrainment at the puff to ambient mixing interface. In general, including detailed aerosol dynamics is the greatest coming challenge which will require an entire new sub-model in IAT. This is very important if contaminant particles change in such a way that they increase or decrease in their potential harm to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Equations of State in Computational Physics: What, Why, and How

Summary: 1. Equations of state furnish thermodynamic properties of a material. 2. Usually involve P, p (or V), and T, or P, r, and E 3. Necessary ingredient to solve compressible flow problems. 4. Varieties: i. Analytical expressions (ideal gas, Grüneisen) – fast, convenient for verification and test problems ii. Graphs and charts – good for hand calculations iii. Tables and databases – generally most accurate, require interpolation i. Steam tables ii. NIST database iii. SESAME EOS Library 5. Constructed by using semi-empirical models from Statistical Mechanics and fitting to available data

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

OC6 Phase III Definition Document

The objective of Phase III of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was to evaluate the accuracy of aerodynamic load predictions by offshore wind modeling tools for a floating offshore wind turbine as it experiences large surge-translational and pitch-rotational motion, as would occur during normal operation. A variety of models were examined in the project, with the goal of performing a three-way validation between engineering-level tools, higher-fidelity tools, and measurement data from two wind tunnel experimental campaigns. This document provides the necessary information to model and simulate the system studied in the OC6 Phase III project. This information is not only useful for project participants, but also future modelers who want to replicate this work for verification and validation purposes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laser Diode Analysis and Verification (Professional Report)

The goal of this project at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) was focused on analyzing and verifying laser diodes to ensure that the diodes meet requirements for LLNL mission applications. The different stages of this testing were documented in a process flow map which included location color coding so that each step was clearly defined in scope and location of appropriate testing facility. Data were collected and analyzed and compared to minimum acceptable values to see if requirements were met. The process map documents the initial receipt, inspection, and testing of the laser diodes. Initial inspections started with Keyence Microscope imaging and then moved on to High Potential, Ramp, and Burst Testing. Data from the diode testing were processed through MATLAB and Python codes to verify various metrics such as slope efficiency, threshold current, back irradiance, and beam divergence met requirements. These metrics were then recorded in Excel summary reports. Approximately 95% of the laser diodes passed all tests. Presentations were given to Lawrence Livermore’s internal leadership team, an external partner, and to a Lab-wide audience. The data released for this report was constrained by information protection considerations of LLNL’s national security missions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation and Verification of Python based Neutron Spectrum Unfolding Software

To validate and verify the python-based code (PySL), designed to replicate the programs used by STAYSL for Beam Correction Factor (BCF) and Self-Shielding Factor (SHIELD), a series of tests were performed. To test BCF a python script was written to generate a random flux history file and both versions of the code processed the data. The test verified matching values up to at least one decimal place, approximately 10,000 tests where run and each one passed. Isotopes began to fail the tests once neutron saturation was reached. To verify this the total time of exposure was varied the isotopes that failed were compared to a list of their half-lives. The test process for SHIELD was very similar but, in this case, the code began by producing an input file with varying thickness and device type/environment for the SHIELD input. The failure condition for this test was if any of the data points for an isotope had a difference above 3%. Approximately 40 of these tests were run and there were only 3 isotopes that had reoccurring failures but only 2% of their points were above the 3% difference. A visual comparison was conducted by plotting the results from both programs. Although the test failed, the differences between their values were minuscule, and the self-shielding factor’s shape was preserved when plotted. Next steps for this project will be validating and verifying the python-based SigPhi code and then reproducing and testing the least squares unfolding performed by STAYSL.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗