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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity based Preemptive Voltage Monitoring in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

With increasing penetration of renewable energy and active consumers, control and management of power distribution networks has become challenging. Renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations as their output power depends on weather conditions. Conventional voltage control schemes such as tap changers and capacitor banks lack the foresight required to quickly alleviate voltage violations. Thus, there is an urgent need for effective approaches for predicting and mitigating voltage violations as a result of random fluctuations in power injections. This work proposes a novel voltage monitoring approach based on low-complexity, data-driven probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis. The usefulness of this work is not only in predicting voltage violations in unbalanced distribution grids, but also in opening up the door for optimal voltage control. Using system data and forecasts, the proposed approach predicts the distribution of system node voltages which is then used to to identify nodes that may violate the nominal operational limits with high probability. The method is tested on the IEEE 37 node distribution system considering integrated distributed solar energy sources. The method is validated against the classic load flow based method and offers over 95% accuracy in predicting voltage violations.

Abujubbeh, Mohammad↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Deontic Transaction Model in Multi-Agent Normative Systems

In the area of multi-agent systems, much research is devoted to the coordination of the agents. There exist several issues, two of which are summarized. The first is that, although agents are said to be autonomous, they always react in a predictable way to each message, and they cannot decide to violate the conventions that are hard-wired into the protocol. In fact, there might be circumstances in which the agent violates a convention in order to realize a private goal that it considers to be more important. Another issue is that, if the protocols that agents use to react to the environment are fixed, they have no way to respond to changes. However, an important characteristic of agents is that they eon react to a changing environment. Although transaction models ([BOH92], [GR93]) evolved from the database domain, they establish a general execution paradigm that ideally covers all the subsystems invoked in a sequence of transactions. So transaction models apply to multi-agent systems. Recently, some research has been devoted to overcoming the limitations of the traditional transaction models which are suitable for conventional systems and focus on system integrity, e,g., [SJ97]. Here we solve above issues by turning to a deontic concept: obligation. In multi-agent systems, agents interact with each other according to norms, We use deontic logic ([And58], [Aqv84], [B C96], [JS94], [MW93]) to model norms. Here the norms prescribe how the agents ought to behave, but-- and this is essential-- they do not exclude the possibility of "bad" behavior (i.e., the actual behavior may deviate from the ideal), and so they also prescribe what should be done in circumstances of norm violation. Thus, we propose a new approach --- a deontic transaction model for multi-agent normative systems. Our approach improves the protocol of "abort/commit" of traditional transaction models to a protocol of "abort/exception/commit". In multi-agent normative systems, we can see the violation of a norm as an exception and how the other agents react to the violation as exception handling. This paper concentrates on our formal model.

Huang, Yonghua↗
NASA NTRS2002

Volcanic Plume Heights on Mars: Limits of Validity for Convective Models

Previous studies have overestimated volcanic plume heights on Mars. In this work, we demonstrate that volcanic plume rise models, as currently formulated, have only limited validity in any environment. These limits are easily violated in the current Mars environment and may also be violated for terrestrial and early Mars conditions. We indicate some of the shortcomings of the model with emphasis on the limited applicability to current Mars conditions. Specifically, basic model assumptions are violated when (1) vertical velocities exceed the speed of sound, (2) radial expansion rates exceed the speed of sound, (3) radial expansion rates approach or exceed the vertical velocity, or (4) plume radius grossly exceeds plume height. All of these criteria are violated for the typical Mars example given here. Solutions imply that the convective rise, model is only valid to a height of approximately 10 kilometers. The reason for the model breakdown is hat the current Mars atmosphere is not of sufficient density to satisfy the conservation equations. It is likely that diffusion and other effects governed by higher-order differential equations are important within the first few kilometers of rise. When the same criteria are applied to eruptions into a higher-density early Mars atmosphere, we find that eruption rates higher than 1.4 x 10(exp 9) kilograms per second also violate model assumptions. This implies a maximum extent of approximately 65 kilometers for convective plumes on early Mars. The estimated plume heights for both current and early Mars are significantly lower than those previously predicted in the literature. Therefore, global-scale distribution of ash seems implausible.

Glaze, Lori S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

New Experiment to Measure the Electron Electric Dipole Moment

An electron can possess an electric dipole moment (edm) only if time reversal symmetry (T) is violated. No edm of any particle has yet been discovered. CP-violation, equivalent to T-violation by the CPT theorem, does occur in Kaon decays and can be accounted for by the standard model. However, this mechanism leads to an electron edm d(sub e) of the order of 10(exp -38) e cm, whereas the current experimental bound on d(sub e) is about 10(exp -27) e cm. However, well-motivated extensions of the standard model such as supersymmetric theories do predict that de could be as large as the current bound. In addition, CP violation in the early universe is required to explain the preponderance of matter over anti-matter, but the exact mechanism of this CP violation is unclear. For these reasons, we are undertaking a new experimental program to determine de to an improved accuracy of 10(exp -29) e cm. Our experiment will use laser-cooled, trapped Cesium atoms to measure the atomic edm d(sub Cs) that occurs if d(sub e) is not zero. In order to do this, we will measure the energy splitting between the atoms spin states in parallel electric and magnetic fields. The signature of an edm would be a linear dependence of the splitting on the electric field E due to the interaction - d(sub Cs) dot E. Our measurement will be much more sensitive than previous measurements because atoms can be stored in the trap for tens of seconds, allowing for much narrower Zeeman resonance linewidths. Also, our method eliminates the most important systematic errors, proportional to atomic velocity, which have limited previous experiments. In this presentation, we will describe the design of our new apparatus, which is presently under construction. An important feature of our experimental apparatus is that magnetic field noise will be suppressed to a very low value of the order of 1 fT/(Hz)1/2. This requires careful attention to the Johnson noise currents in the chamber, which have not been important in previous experiments. In addition we will present estimates of the limits of the various errors that we expect for our experiment.

Kittle, Melanie↗
NASA NTRS2008

Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) Cost-Benefit Analysis

Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are designed to prevent space launch vehicles from flight through environments conducive to natural or triggered lightning and are used for all U.S. government and commercial launches at government and civilian ranges. They are maintained by a committee known as the NASA/USAF Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP). The previous LLCC for anvil cloud, meant to avoid triggered lightning, have been shown to be overly restrictive. Some of these rules have had such high safety margins that they prohibited flight under conditions that are now thought to be safe 90% of the time, leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. The LLCC for anvil clouds was upgraded in the summer of 2005 to incorporate results from the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) experiment at the Eastern Range (ER). Numerous combinations of parameters were considered to develop the best correlation of operational weather observations to in-cloud electric fields capable of rocket triggered lightning in anvil clouds. The Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) was the best metric found. Dr. Harry Koons of Aerospace Corporation conducted a risk analysis of the VAHIRR product. The results indicated that the LLCC based on the VAHIRR product would pose a negligible risk of flying through hazardous electric fields. Based on these findings, the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office is considering seeking funding for development of an automated VAHIRR algorithm for the new ER 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) RadTec 431250 weather radar and Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars. Before developing an automated algorithm, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to determine the frequency with which VAHIRR would have allowed a launch to safely proceed during weather conditions otherwise deemed "red" by the Launch Weather Officer. To do this, the AMU manually calculated VAHIRR values based on candidate cases from past launches with known anvil cloud LLCC violations. An automated algorithm may be developed if the analyses from past launches show VAHIRR would have provided a significant cost benefit by allowing a launch to proceed. The 45 WS at the ER and 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) at the Western Range provided the AMU with launch weather summaries from past launches that were impacted by LLCC. The 45 WS provided summaries from 14 launch attempts and the 30 WS fkom 5. The launch attempts occurred between December 2001 and June 2007. These summaries helped the AMU determine when the LLCC were "red" due to anvil cloud. The AMU collected WSR-88D radar reflectivity, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, soundings and satellite imagery. The AMU used step-by-step instructions for calculating VAHIRR manually as provided by the 45 WS. These instructions were used for all of the candidate cases when anvil cloud caused an LLCC violation identified in the launch weather summaries. The AMU evaluated several software programs capable of visualizing radar data so that VAHIRR could be calculated and chose GR2Analyst from Gibson Ridge Software, LLC. Data availability and lack of detail from some launch weather summaries permitted analysis of six launch attempts from the ER and none from the WR. The AMU did not take into account whether or not other weather LCC violations were occurring at the same time as the anvil cloud LLCC since the goal of this task was to determine how often VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC at any time during several previous launch attempts. Therefore, in the statistics presented in this report, it is possible that even though VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC, other weather LCC could have been violated not permitting the launch to proceed. The results of this cost-benefit analysis indicated VAHIRR provided relief from the anvil cloud LLCC between about 15% and 18% of the time for varying 5-minute time periods based on summaries fkom six launch attempts and would have allowed launch to proceed that were otherwise "NO GO" due to the anvil cloud LLCC if the T-0 time occurred during the anvil cloud LLCC violations.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical inference of static analysis rules

Various apparatus and methods are disclosed for identifying errors in program code. Respective numbers of observances of at least one correctness rule by different code instances that relate to the at least one correctness rule are counted in the program code. Each code instance has an associated counted number of observances of the correctness rule by the code instance. Also counted are respective numbers of violations of the correctness rule by different code instances that relate to the correctness rule. Each code instance has an associated counted number of violations of the correctness rule by the code instance. A respective likelihood of the validity is determined for each code instance as a function of the counted number of observances and counted number of violations. The likelihood of validity indicates a relative likelihood that a related code instance is required to observe the correctness rule. The violations may be output in order of the likelihood of validity of a violated correctness rule.

Engler, Dawson Richards↗
DOE OSTI2025

What can solve the strong CP problem?

Three possible strategies have been advocated to solve the strong CP problem. The first is the axion, a dynamical mechanism that relaxes any initial value of the CP violating angle $\overline{θ}$ to zero. The second is the imposition of new symmetries that are believed to set $\overline{θ}$ to zero in the UV. The third is the acceptance of the fine tuning of parameters. We argue that the latter two solutions do not solve the strong CP problem. The θ term of QCD is not a parameter — it does not exist in the Hamiltonian. Rather, it is a property of the quantum state that our universe finds itself in, arising from the fact that there are CP violating states of a CP preserving Hamiltonian. It is not eliminated by imposing parity as a symmetry since the underlying theory is already parity symmetric and that does not preclude the existence of CP violating states. Moreover, since the value of θ realized in our universe is a consequence of measurement, it is inherently random and cannot be fine tuned by choice of parameters. Rather any fine tuning would require a tuning between parameters in the theory and the random outcome of measurement. Our results considerably strengthen the case for the existence of the axion and axion dark matter. The confusion around θ arises from the fact that unlike classical mechanics, the Hamiltonian and Lagrangian are not equivalent in quantum mechanics. The Hamiltonian defines the differential time evolution, whereas the Lagrangian is a solution to this evolution. Consequently, initial conditions could in principle appear in the Lagrangian but not in the Hamiltonian. This results in aspects of the initial condition such as θ misleadingly appearing in the Lagrangian as parameters. We comment on the similarity between the θ vacua and the violations of the constraint equations of classical gauge theories in quantum mechanics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and interpretations of W ± Z production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of integrated and differential cross-sections for W ± Z production in proton-proton collisions are presented. The data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider from 2015 to 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The W ± Z candidate events are reconstructed using leptonic decay modes of the gauge bosons into electrons or muons. The integrated cross-section per lepton flavour for the production of W ± Z is measured in the detector fiducial region with a relative precision of 4%. The measured value is compared with the Standard Model prediction at a precision of up to next-to-next-to-leading-order in QCD and next-to-leading-order in electroweak. Cross-sections for W + Z and W − Z production and their ratio are presented. The W ± Z production is also measured differentially as functions of various kinematic variables, including new observables sensitive to CP-violation effects. All measurements are compared with state-of-the-art Standard Model predictions from fixed-order calculations or Monte Carlo generators based on next-to-leading-order matrix elements interfaced with parton showers. An effective field theory interpretation of the measurements is performed, considering both CP-conserving and CP-violating dimension-6 operators modifying the W ± Z production. In the absence of observed deviations from the Standard Model, limits on CP-conserving Wilson coefficients are extracted using the transverse mass of the W ± Z system. For CP-violating coefficients a machine learning approach is used to construct an observable with enhanced sensitivity to CP-violation effects.

hadron-hadron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2024

A survey of nuclear quadrupole deformation in order to estimate the nuclear MQM and its relative contribution to the atomic EDM: Searching for the best candidate to focus on an atomic EDM measurement: A nuclear physics perspective

Abstract Measurement of a non-zero permanent electric dipole moment (EDM) in fundamental particles, such as in an electron or a neutron, or in nuclei or atoms, can help us gain a handle on the sources of Charge-Parity (CP) violation, both in the Standard Model (SM) and beyond. The nuclear magnetic quadrupole moment (MQM), the central topic of this work, is also CP, P, and T violating. Nucleons and nuclei have a non-zero MQM from sources within the SM, but the nuclear MQM is dramatically enhanced if the nuclei are structurally quadrupole deformed. Multiple sources contribute to an atomic EDM namely: (i) nuclear EDM through its Schiff moment, which is enhanced by nuclear octupole deformation, (ii) CP violating interactions between the electrons and the nuclei, and (iii) the nuclear MQM that contributes to the atomic EDM in atoms with an unpaired valence electron. Our survey of nuclear quadrupole deformation identified 48 isotopes as ideal systems in which to search for a CP violating EDM via their enhanced nuclear MQM. Of these candidates, $$^{223,225}$$ 223 , 225 Fr, $$^{223}$$ 223 Ra, $$^{223,225,227}$$ 223 , 225 , 227 Ac, $$^{229}$$ 229 Th, and $$^{229}$$ 229 Pa also have maximally enhanced nuclear Schiff moment contribution due to their octupole deformation. Laser cooling of the isotopes of Fr and Ra, among a few others, has already been demonstrated, making $$^{223,225}$$ 223 , 225 Fr and $$^{223}$$ 223 Ra some of the best systems in which to measure an EDM.

MohanMurthy, Prajwal↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear matrix elements from lattice QCD for electroweak and beyond-Standard-Model processes

Over the last decade, numerical solutions of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) using the technique of lattice QCD have developed to a point where they are beginning to connect fundamental aspects of nuclear physics to the underlying degrees of freedom of the Standard Model. In this review, the progress of lattice QCD studies of nuclear matrix elements of electroweak currents and beyond-Standard-Model operators is summarized, and connections with effective field theories and nuclear models are outlined. Lattice QCD calculations of nuclear matrix elements can provide guidance for low-energy nuclear reactions in astrophysics, dark matter direct detection experiments, and experimental searches for violations of the symmetries of the Standard Model, including searches for additional CP violation in the hadronic and leptonic sectors, baryon-number violation, and lepton-number or flavor violation. Similarly, important inputs to neutrino experiments seeking to determine the neutrino-mass hierarchy and oscillation parameters, as well as other electroweak and beyond-Standard-Model processes can be determined. As a result, the phenomenological implications of existing studies of electroweak and beyond-Standard-Model matrix elements in light nuclear systems are discussed, and future prospects for the field toward precision studies of these matrix elements are outlined.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Superfluid density in overdoped cuprates: Thin films versus bulk samples

Recent study of overdoped La 2–x Sr x CuO 4 cuprate superconductor thin films by Božovic et al. has revealed several unexpected findings, most notably the violation of the BCS description which was believed to adequately describe overdoped cuprates. In particular, it was found that the superfluid density in La 2–x Sr x CuO 4 films decreases on the overdoped side as a linear function of critical temperature T c , which was taken as evidence for the violation of Homes' law. Here we show explicitly that the law is indeed violated, and as the main reason for violation we find that the superfluid density in Božovic's films is suppressed more strongly than in bulk samples. Based on the existing literature data, we show that the superfluid density in bulk cuprate samples does not decrease with doping, but instead tends to saturate on the overdoped side. The result is also supported by our recent measurement of a heavily overdoped bulk La 2–x Sr x CuO 4 sample. Moreover, this saturation of superfluid density might not be limited to cuprates, as we find evidence for similar behavior in two pnictide superconductor families. We argue that quantum phase fluctuations play an important role in suppressing the superfluid density in thin films.

2-dimensional systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

How macroscopic limits on neutron-star baryon loss yield microscopic limits on non-standard-model baryon decay

We investigate how our baryon-loss limits from anomalous binary-pulsar period lengthening can be interpreted microscopically to yield specific constraints on the particle physics of baryon number violation within a neutron star. We focus on the possibility of anomalous baryon disappearance via dark baryon processes and on scenarios in which the produced dark-sector particles do not survive to influence the response of the star to baryon-number-violating effects. We flesh out the conditions for which this may occur, as well as other key assumptions. We then turn to the analysis of particle processes in the dense nuclear medium found at the core of a neutron star, employing the techniques of relativistic mean-field theory. Using our study of in-medium effects and limits on macroscopic baryon number violation, we extract limits on in-vacuum baryon-number-violating processes, and we determine them for various equations of state. We conclude by noting the implications of our results for models of dark-sector-enabled baryogenesis. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Solar-assisted Voltage Optimization Method for Transmission Solar Network Power System

This paper proposes a new formulation and solution algorithm that uses transmission level solar inverters to address the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem. The goal is to stabilize voltage fluctuations in transmission networks in base case and contingency scenarios, by using bulk solar power plant with a minimal number of post-contingency corrections. To achieve this goal, a two-stage volt/var optimization method is proposed to first correct all voltage violations with the volt-var alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) algorithm for a base case. Then a linearized SCOPF volt-var control algorithm is proposed to identify the corrective actions for all potential voltage violations in all contingency scenarios. The proposed method was tested and validated on a modified IEEE 118-bus system with solar photovoltaic (PV) data.

Photovoltaic, Volt/Var Control↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Compliance in an Epidemiological Model: Constructs from Psychological Theory and Research

Vaccination and the alternative behavior, vaccine refusal, are a classic example of manifesting behaviors driven by social norms and norm violations. Establishing how norms emerge, and under what circumstances people choose to violate them are key issues to understand in modeling epidemics. Interactions between individuals can lead to large-scale patterning of behavior (emergent phenomena). As norm violations are revealed through human behavior, drawing on psychological theory and principles to predict those violations is a viable approach for more human-constrained epidemiological models. As an example of the implications at scale, vaccine refusal is correlated with the spread of mis/disinformation about vaccine side-effects. Considering the complexities of network dynamics, the downstream effects means that if even a small group within a population are persuaded against vaccination, there is a reservoir from which disease and disease outbreaks can propagate. This work will attempt to identify those psychological indicators, to define circumstances that predict health behaviors, and identify potentially modifiable antecedents of health behavior, and factors that influence changes toward health protective behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating solutions to the strong CP problem (Final Technical Report)

The weak interaction violates a symmetry between particles and anti-particles that is called a CP symmetry. This violation is expected to induce CP violation in the strong interaction by a large amount. However, observations show that the CP violation in the strong interaction is smaller than expected by more than ten orders of magnitude. This discrepancy is called the strong CP problem, and solving it has been one of the motivations for constructing a theory beyond the Standard Model (SM). In this research program, the PI investigated possible signals of solutions to the strong CP problem. The signals were predicted for a variety of experiments and observations. These predictions bridge different subfields of particle physics, cosmology, and astrophysics that are otherwise disconnected. As a byproduct, the PI also applied the techniques developed in this study to theories with axion-like particles to reveal signals of axion-like particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Jupiter's winds and Arnol'd's second stability theorem: Slowly moving waves and neutral stability

Since the Voyager encounters in 1979, it has been known that Jupiter's cloud-top zonal winds violate the barotropic stability criterion. A vortex-tube stretching analysis of the Voyager wind data indicates that the more general Charney-Stern stability criterion is also violated. On the other hand, the zonal winds determined by tracking cloud features in Hubble Space Telescope images taken in 1991 precisely match the zonal winds determined by tracking cloud features in Voyager images, and it is hard to understand how a complicated zonal wind profile like Jupiter's could be unstable and yet not change at all in 12 years. In fact, there are at least two unknown ways to violate the Charney-Stern stability criterion and still have a stable flow. The better known of these is called Fjortoft's theorem, or Arnol'd's 1st theorem for the case of large-amplitude perturbations. Although the Fjortoft-Arnol'd theorem has been extended from the quasi-geostrophic equations to the primitive equations, the basic requirement that the potential vorticity be an increasing function of streamfunction is opposite to the case found in Jupiter, where the Voyager data indicate that the potential vorticity is a decreasing function of streamfunction. But this second case is precisely that which is covered by Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem. In fact, the Voyager data suggest that Jupiter's zonal winds are neutrally stable with respect to Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem. Here, we analyze the linear stability problem of a one-parameter family of sinusoidal zonal wind profiles that are close to neutral stability with respect to Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem. We find numerically that the most unstable mode is always stationary, which may help to explain the slowly moving mode 10 waves observed on Jupiter. We find that violation of Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem is both necessary and sufficient for instability of sinusoidal profiles. However, there appears to be no simple extension of Arnol'd's 2nd stability theorem to the primitive equations. Nevertheless, the primitive growth rates are small, and the primitive system is still governed by the quasi-geostrophic neutral-stability configuration.

Stamp, Andrew P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

continous descent arrivals↗