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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Satellite Remote Sensing of Tropical Precipitation and Ice Clouds for GCM Verification

This project, supported by the NASA New Investigator Program, has primarily been funding a graduate student, Darren McKague. Since August 1999 Darren has been working part time at Raytheon, while continuing his PhD research. Darren is planning to finish his thesis work in May 2001, thus some of the work described here is ongoing. The proposed research was to use GOES visible and infrared imager data and SSM/I microwave data to obtain joint distributions of cirrus cloud ice mass and precipitation for a study region in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. These joint distributions of cirrus cloud and rainfall were to be compared to those from the CSU general circulation model to evaluate the cloud microphysical amd cumulus parameterizations in the GCM. Existing algorithms were to be used for the retrieval of cloud ice water path from GOES (Minnis) and rainfall from SSM/I (Wilheit). A theoretical study using radiative transfer models and realistic variations in cloud and precipitation profiles was to be used to estimate the retrieval errors. Due to the unavailability of the GOES satellite cloud retrieval algorithm from Dr. Minnis (a co-PI), there was a change in the approach and emphasis of the project. The new approach was to develop a completely new type of remote sensing algorithm - one to directly retrieve joint probability density functions (pdf's) of cloud properties from multi-dimensional histograms of satellite radiances. The usual approach is to retrieve individual pixels of variables (i.e. cloud optical depth), and then aggregate the information. Only statistical information is actually needed, however, and so a more direct method is desirable. We developed forward radiative transfer models for the SSM/I and GOES channels, originally for testing the retrieval algorithms. The visible and near infrared ice scattering information is obtained from geometric ray tracing of fractal ice crystals (Andreas Macke), while the mid-infrared and microwave scattering is computed with Mie scattering. The radiative transfer is performed with the Spherical Harmonic Discrete Ordinate Method (developed by the PI), and infrared molecular absorption is included with the correlated k-distribution method. The SHDOM radiances have been validated by comparison to version 2 of DISORT (the community "standard" discrete-ordinates radiative transfer model), however we use SHDOM since it is computationally more efficient.

Evans, K. Franklin↗
NASA NTRS2013

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Parameterization of Cloud and Rain Microphysics in E3SM using Novel Observationally-Constrained Bayesian Approach (Final Technical Report)

In this project, we sought to develop new cloud and rain microphysics frameworks within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This work encompassed two primary avenues of research: 1) Further development of a Bayesian-based scheme called BOSS (Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme) to represent cloud and rain microphysics, testing it in realistic high-resolution cloud models, and implementing it in E3SM; 2) Development of a methodology utilizing machine learning to enable computationally tractable use of tractable use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian parameter estimation in Earth system and cloud models. In this project, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all liquid-phase microphysical processes for cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example the conversion from cloud to rain through collision and coalescence of drops. We constrained the scheme via comparison and testing against a detailed model that explicitly represents the evolution of cloud and rain particles, called a bin microphysics scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Scalable Coastal and Offshore Macroalgal Farming

The US DOE/ARPA-E MARINER program funded a four-year project to determine an optimal way to grow kelps in large, nearshore and offshore arrays for the eventual purpose of biofuel production with the goal of keeping the cost below $\$$80 USD per dry metric ton of kelp. This project specifically looked at how Saccharina latissima can be grown in the Gulf of Alaska to reach that goal. There were three major aspects of the research: 1) optimizing nursery production and seeding lines for outplanting, 2) designing an economical, modular outplanting structure and 3) developing methods to efficiently harvest the product. Farm designs were based on catenary structures and the use of spreader bars with variable spacing of grow lines and line types. The spacing of the grow lines makes a difference in the yield. Grow line spacing of ≥1.5m showed about a 50% increase in kg/m. There was no statistical difference in the growth of Saccharina latissima whether in the middle or the outside of the array, but the line type and perhaps line thickness can make a difference in yield. Sagging caused by the weight of the mature fronds resulted in lower growth at depth. Various harvesting approaches for mature kelps were tested by collaborating farmers. One promising innovation is the use of large bags for holding the freshly harvested fronds. Although the weight of the fronds on the growlines causes the lines to sink, the bags packed with the harvested fronds float, allowing for easy loading to the transfer vessel. Another advance in harvesting is a specially built harvest vessel, the Harvest Buddy, allowing a more mechanized and faster way to harvest. A significant aspect of this project was the TTO/T2M. Several different outreach activities were performed by the Alaska Fisheries Development Foundation and GreenWave. A techno-economic assessment (TEA) using our data has pointed to solutions to reach the $\$$80 goal. A second phase of this project involved the co-culture of two different species of kelps. Interest in farming kelps has grown beyond using kelp for food, feed or biofuels. There is considerable interest in generating biomass from seaweed for use in bioplastics and other products that would substitute for petroleum-derived products. For these uses to be viable, large amounts of biomass are needed. Very large kelp farms can be expensive to build and maintain, leading to the need to optimize the biomass per unit area. Although close spacing of growlines can lead to poor growth, a viable approach may be to grow two species of kelps together: one that hangs down and one that is buoyant, growing up. This system would increase the spacing in three dimensions. In Alaska, Saccharina latissima is commonly grown hanging down from longlines. One of the buoyant Alaskan kelps is Nereocystis luetkeana. Because there are commercial uses for wild-harvested Nereocystis in Alaska, we undertook a preliminary trial in Kodiak, Alaska that grew both Saccharina and Nereocystis in the same longline array. Closely spaced lines were seeded the first week of February 2023 and set at 3m below the surface. The arrays were harvested in late June 2023. Despite having 45% fewer grow-lines, the total yield of the Nereocystis on the combined arrays was statistically similar to the Nereocystis only arrays. Total yields were greatest on the combined arrays, followed by the Nereocystis only and Saccharina only arrays. These results may have significance for large scale macroalgal production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Digital test signal generation: An accurate SNR calibration approach for the DSN

A new method of generating analog test signals with accurate signal to noise ratios (SNRs) is described. High accuracy will be obtained by simultaneous generation of digital noise and signal spectra at a given baseband or bandpass limited bandwidth. The digital synthesis will provide a test signal embedded in noise with the statistical properties of a stationary random process. Accuracy will only be dependent on test integration time with a limit imposed by the system quantization noise (expected to be 0.02 dB). Setability will be approximately 0.1 dB. The first digital SNR generator to provide baseband test signals is being built and will be available in early 1991.

Gutierrez-Luaces, B. O.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Shuttle payload minimum cost vibroacoustic tests

This paper is directed toward the development of the methodology needed to evaluate cost effective vibroacoustic test plans for Shuttle Spacelab payloads. Statistical decision theory is used to quantitatively evaluate seven alternate test plans by deriving optimum test levels and the expected cost for each multiple mission payload considered. The results indicate that minimum costs can vary by as much as $6 million for the various test plans. The lowest cost approach eliminates component testing and maintains flight vibration reliability by performing subassembly tests at a relatively high acoustic level. Test plans using system testing or combinations of component and assembly level testing are attractive alternatives. Component testing alone is shown not to be cost effective.

Stahle, C. V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Wind-Tunnel Experimentation Advancements for eVTOL Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Model Development

Compared to many conventional aircraft, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle designs present greater aero-propulsive complexity and many interacting factors requiring development of novel testing and model development strategies. This paper describes several advances in statistically-rigorous experiment design methods for wind-tunnel testing of eVTOL aircraft enabling accurate aero-propulsive model development. The techniques are applied to a subscale tilt-rotor eVTOL aircraft configuration built at NASA Langley Research Center that has 24 independent control effectors. The general testing approach, leveraging design of experiments and response surface methodology, is outlined and followed by a detailed description of the experiment design and modeling approach employed for different phases of the wind-tunnel testing. A new approach for gravitational tare modeling is developed and validated, which reduces the required wind-tunnel test time by nearly 50%. A mostly automated trim envelope determination approach is formulated to rapidly determine the aircraft flight envelope to inform transition testing for aero-propulsive model development. Efficient powered-airframe characterization tests are conducted using a nested I-optimal design approach formulated in previous simulation-based testing. The collective wind-tunnel testing approach facilitates rapid characterization of eVTOL aircraft configurations and produces accurate aero-propulsive models that can be used in flight dynamics simulations.

design of experiments↗
DOE OSTI2016

Molecular dynamics simulations of hydrogen diffusion in aluminum

In this study, hydrogen diffusion impacts the performance of solid-state hydrogen storage materials and contributes to the embrittlement of structural materials under hydrogen-containing environments. In atomistic simulations, the diffusion energy barriers are usually calculated using molecular statics simulations where a nudged elastic band method is used to constrain a path connecting the two end points of an atomic jump. This approach requires prior knowledge of the “end points”. For alloy and defective systems, the number of possible atomic jumps with respect to local atomic configurations is tremendous. Even when these jumps can be exhaustively studied, it is still unclear how they can be combined to give an overall diffusion behavior seen in experiments. Here we describe the use of molecular dynamics simulations to determine the overall diffusion energy barrier from the Arrhenius equation. This method does not require information about atomic jumps, and it has additional advantages, such as the ability to incorporate finite temperature effects and to determine the pre-exponential factor. As a test case for a generic method, we focus on hydrogen diffusion in bulk aluminum. We find that the challenge of this method is the statistical variation of the results. However, highly converged energy barriers can be achieved by an appropriate set of temperatures, output time intervals (for tracking hydrogen positions), and a long total simulation time. Our results help elucidate the inconsistencies of the experimental diffusion data published in the literature. The robust approach developed here may also open up future molecular dynamics simulations to rapidly study diffusion properties of complex material systems in multidimensional spaces involving composition and defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2019

The comparison of semiempirical and ab initio molecular modeling methods in activity and property evaluation of selected antimicrobial sulfonamides

A group of sulfonamides exhibiting antimicrobial activity was analyzed with the application of quantitative structure–activity/property relationships method. The purpose of this study was to show the common and differentiating characteristics of the analyzed chemical structures alike physicochemically as well as pharmacologically based on the quantum-chemical calculations both in vacuo and in the aquatic environment together with their microbiological activity and chromatographic retention data. The semiempirical and ab initio level of in silico molecular modeling was performed for calculations of statistically significant molecular descriptors to compare obtained results. The relationship between the structure and biological activity and physicochemical parameters data was able to class and describe analyzed molecules and the applied chemometric approaches (principal component analysis, factor analysis, and multiple regression analysis) revealed the influential features of the tested structures responsible for the antimicrobial activity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Baryon acoustic oscillations in the Ly α forest of BOSS DR11 quasars

We report a detection of the baryon acousticoscillation (BAO) feature in the flux-correlation function of the Lyα forest of high-redshift quasars with a statistical significance of five standard deviations. The study uses 137,562 quasars in the redshift range 2.1 ≤ z ≤ 3.5 from the data release 11 (DR11) of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) of SDSS-III. This sample contains three times the number of quasars used in previous studies. The measured position of the BAO peak determines the angular distance, D A (z = 2.34) and expansion rate, H(z = 2.34), both on a scale set by the sound horizon at the drag epoch, r d . We find D A /r d = 11.28 ± 0.65(1σ)$+2.8\atop{-1.2}$(2σ) and D H /r d = 9.18 ± 0.28(1σ) ± 0.6(2σ) where D H = c/H. The optimal combination, ~D$0.7\atop{H}$ D$0.3\atop{A}/r d is determined with a precision of ~2%. For the value r d = 147.4 Mpc, consistent with the cosmic microwave background power spectrum measured by Planck, we find D A (z = 2.34) = 1662 ± 96(1σ) Mpc and H(z = 2.34) = 222 ± 7(1σ) km s -1 Mpc -1 . Tests with mock catalogs and variations of our analysis procedure have revealed no systematic uncertainties comparable to our statistical errors. Our results agree with the previously reported BAO measurement at the same redshift using the quasar-Lyα forest cross-correlation. The autocorrelation and cross-correlation approaches are complementary because of the quite different impact of redshift-space distortion on the two measurements. The combined constraints from the two correlation functions imply values of D A /r d that are 7% lower and 7% higher for D H /r d than the predictions of a flat ΛCDM cosmological model with the best-fit Planck parameters. With our estimated statistical errors, the significance of this discrepancy is ≈2.5σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Electric field stimulated growth of Zn whiskers

We have investigated the impact of strong (∼10{sup 4} V/cm) electric fields on the development of Zn whiskers. The original samples, with considerable whisker infestation were cut from Zn-coated steel floors and then exposed to electric fields stresses for 10-20 hours at room temperature. We used various electric field sources, from charges accumulated in samples irradiated by: (1) the electron beam of a scanning electron microscope (SEM), (2) the electron beam of a medical linear accelerator, and (3) the ion beam of a linear accelerator; we also used (4) the electric field produced by a Van der Graaf generator. In all cases, the exposed samples exhibited a considerable (tens of percent) increase in whiskers concentration compared to the control sample. The acceleration factor defined as the ratio of the measured whisker growth rate over that in zero field, was estimated to approach several hundred. The statistics of lengths of e-beam induced whiskers was found to follow the log-normal distribution known previously for metal whiskers. The observed accelerated whisker growth is attributed to electrostatic effects. These results offer promise for establishing whisker-related accelerated life testing protocols.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2019

Clutter Identification based on sparse recovery with dynamically changing dictionary sizes for cognitive radar

Existing radar algorithms assume stationary statistical characteristics for environment/clutter. In practical scenarios, the statistical characteristics of the clutter can dynamically change depending on where the radar is operating. Non-stationarity in the statistical characteristics of the clutter may negatively affect the radar performance. Cognitive radar that can sense the changes in the clutter statistics, learn the new statistical characteristics, and adapt to these changes has been proposed to overcome these shortcomings. We have recently developed techniques for detection of statistical changes and learning the new clutter distribution for cognitive radar. In this work, we will extend the learning component. More specifically, in our previous work, we have developed a sparse recovery based clutter distribution identification to learn the distribution of the new clutter characteristics after the detected change in the statistics of the clutter. In our method, we have built a dictionary of clutter distributions and used this dictionary in orthogonal matching pursuit to perform sparse recovery of the clutter distribution assuming that the dictionary includes the new distribution. In this work, we propose a hypothesis testing based approach to detect whether the new distribution of the clutter is included in the dictionary or not, and suggest a method to dynamically update the dictionary. We envision that the successful outcomes of this work will be of high relevance to the adaptive learning and cognitive augmentation of the radar systems that are used in remotely piloted vehicles for surveillance and reconnaissance operations.

Zhu, Yuansheng↗
DOE OSTI2015

Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis. Modeling Operator Performance During Flooding Scenarios

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the overall objective to help sustain the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To accomplish this program objective, there are multiple LWRS “pathways,” or research and development (R&D) focus areas. One LWRS focus area is called the Risk-Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway. Initial efforts under this pathway to combine probabilistic and plant multi-physics models to quantify safety margins and support business decisions also included HRA, but in a somewhat simplified manner. HRA experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been collaborating with other experts to develop a computational HRA approach, called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), for inclusion into the RISMC framework. The basic premise of this research is to leverage applicable computational techniques, namely simulation and modeling, to develop and then, using RAVEN as a controller, seamlessly integrate virtual operator models (HUNTER) with 1) the dynamic computational MOOSE runtime environment that includes a full-scope plant model, and 2) the RISMC framework PRA models already in use. The HUNTER computational HRA approach is a hybrid approach that leverages past work from cognitive psychology, human performance modeling, and HRA, but it is also a significant departure from existing static and even dynamic HRA methods. This report is divided into five chapters that cover the development of an external flooding event test case and associated statistical modeling considerations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Testing the accuracy of remote sensing land use maps

Some of the main aspects that need to be considered in a remote sensing sampling design are: (1) the frequency that any one land use type (on the ground) is erroneously attributed to another class by the interpreter; (2) the frequency that the wrong land use (as observed on the ground) is erroneously included in any one class by the remote sensing interpreter; (3) the proportion of all land (as determined in the field) that is mistakenly attributed by the interpreter; and (4) the determination of whether the mistakes are random (so that the overall proportions are approximately correct) or subject to a persistent bias. A sampling and statistical testing procedure is presented which allows an approximate answer to each of these aspects. The concept developed and described incorporates the probability of making incorrect interpretations at particular prescribed accuracy levels, for a certain number of errors, for a particular sample size. It is considered that this approach offers a meaningful explanation of the interpretation accuracy level of an entire remote sensing land use survey.

Vangenderen, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A probabilistic approach to radiative energy loss calculations for optically thick atmospheres - Hydrogen lines and continua

An approximate probabilistic radiative transfer equation and the statistical equilibrium equations are simultaneously solved for a model hydrogen atom consisting of three bound levels and ionization continuum. The transfer equation for L-alpha, L-beta, H-alpha, and the Lyman continuum is explicitly solved assuming complete redistribution. The accuracy of this approach is tested by comparing source functions and radiative loss rates to values obtained with a method that solves the exact transfer equation. Two recent model solar-flare chromospheres are used for this test. It is shown that for the test atmospheres the probabilistic method gives values of the radiative loss rate that are characteristically good to a factor of 2. The advantage of this probabilistic approach is that it retains a description of the dominant physical processes of radiative transfer in the complete redistribution case, yet it achieves a major reduction in computational requirements.

Canfield, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Machine learning bandgaps of double perovskites

The ability to make rapid and accurate predictions on bandgaps of double perovskites is of much practical interest for a range of applications. While quantum mechanical computations for high-fidelity bandgaps are enormously computation-time intensive and thus impractical in high throughput studies, informatics-based statistical learning approaches can be a promising alternative. Here we demonstrate a systematic feature-engineering approach and a robust learning framework for efficient and accurate predictions of electronic bandgaps of double perovskites. After evaluating a set of more than 1.2 million features, we identify lowest occupied Kohn-Sham levels and elemental electronegativities of the constituent atomic species as the most crucial and relevant predictors. As a result, the developed models are validated and tested using the best practices of data science and further analyzed to rationalize their prediction performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2000

Comparison of IC and MEMS packaging reliability approaches

This paper reviews the current status of IC and MEMS packaging technology with emphasis on reliability, compares the norm for IC packaging reliability evaluation and identifies challenges for development of reliability methodologies for MEMS, and finally, proposes the use of COTS MEMS in order to start generating statistically meaningful reliability data as a vehicle for future standardization of reliability test methodology for MEMS packaging.

microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) chip scale p↗