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NASA NTRS1991

Asymptotic integration algorithms for nonhomogeneous, nonlinear, first order, ordinary differential equations

New methods for integrating systems of stiff, nonlinear, first order, ordinary differential equations are developed by casting the differential equations into integral form. Nonlinear recursive relations are obtained that allow the solution to a system of equations at time t plus delta t to be obtained in terms of the solution at time t in explicit and implicit forms. Examples of accuracy obtained with the new technique are given by considering systems of nonlinear, first order equations which arise in the study of unified models of viscoplastic behaviors, the spread of the AIDS virus, and predator-prey populations. In general, the new implicit algorithm is unconditionally stable, and has a Jacobian of smaller dimension than that which is acquired by current implicit methods, such as the Euler backward difference algorithm; yet, it gives superior accuracy. The asymptotic explicit and implicit algorithms are suitable for solutions that are of the growing and decaying exponential kinds, respectively, whilst the implicit Euler-Maclaurin algorithm is superior when the solution oscillates, i.e., when there are regions in which both growing and decaying exponential solutions exist.

Walker, K. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A comparative study of several compressibility corrections to turbulence models applied to high-speed shear layers

Several recently published compressibility corrections to the standard k-epsilon turbulence model are used with the Navier-Stokes equations to compute the mixing region of a large variety of high speed flows. These corrections, specifically developed to address the weakness of higher order turbulence models to accurately predict the spread rate of compressible free shear flows, are applied to two stream flows of the same gas mixing under a large variety of free stream conditions. Results are presented for two types of flows: unconfined streams with either (1) matched total temperatures and static pressures, or (2) matched static temperatures and pressures, and a confined stream.

Viegas, John R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Strontium isotopic variations of Neoproterozoic seawater - Implications for crustal evolution

High-precision Sr isotopic data were obtained on carbonate samples from the Neoproterozoic Shaler Group, Victoria Island (Canada). Results indicate that, between ca. 790 and 850 Ma, the Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio of seawater varied betweeen 0.70676 and 0.70561, with the minimum value at about 830 Ma. A curve of the Sr-87/Sr-86 seawater ratio vs. age showed that the new data substantially improve the existing isotopic record of Sr in seawater for the period 790-850 Ma. The Sr isotopic system data were coupled with data for the Nd isotopic system to model changes in the seafloor spreading rates (hydrothermal flux) and the continental erosion for the period 500-900 Ma. Results indicate that hydrothermal flux reached a maximum value at ca. 830 Ma, while a maximum in erosion rate occurred at ca. 570 Ma. These peaks are considered to be related to the developments in the Pan-African and related orogenic events.

Asmerom, Yemane↗

NASA NTRS1993

Automatic array alignment in data-parallel programs

FORTRAN 90 and other data-parallel languages express parallelism in the form of operations on data aggregates such as arrays. Misalignment of the operands of an array operation can reduce program performance on a distributed-memory parallel machine by requiring nonlocal data accesses. Determining array alignments that reduce communication is therefore a key issue in compiling such languages. We present a framework for the automatic determination of array alignments in array-based, data-parallel languages. Our language model handles array sectioning, reductions, spreads, transpositions, and masked operations. We decompose alignment functions into three constituents: axis, stride, and offset. For each of these subproblems, we show how to solve the alignment problem for a basic block of code, possibly containing common subexpressions. Alignments are generated for all array objects in the code, both named program variables and intermediate results. We assign computation to processors by virtue of explicit alignment of all temporaries; the resulting work assignment is in general better than that provided by the 'owner-computes' rule. Finally, we present some ideas for dealing with control flow, replication, and dynamic alignments that depend on loop induction variables.

Chatterjee, Siddhartha↗

NASA NTRS2000

Downward Link of Solar Activity Variations Through Wave Driven Equatorial Oscillations (QBO and SAO)

Signatures of the 11-year solar activity/irradiance cycle are observed in the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the lower stratosphere. At these altitudes, the QBO is understood to be the result of "downward control" exerted by the wave mean flow interactions that drive the phenomenon. It is reasonable then to speculate that the QBO is a natural conduit to lower altitudes of solar activity variations in radiance (SAV). To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). To account for the SAV, we change the solar heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 kin to 10% at 100 km. With the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the solar activity irradiance effect (SAE) on the zonal circulation at low latitudes. The numerical results obtained show that, under certain conditions, the SAE is significant in the zonal circulation and does extend to lower altitudes where the SAV is small. The differences in the wind velocities can be as large as 5 m/s at 20 kin. We carried out two numerical experiments with integrations over more than 20 years: 1) With the QBO period "tuned" to be 30 months, of academic interest but instructive, the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing [through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)] acts as a strong pacemaker to produce a firm lock on the period and phase of the QBO. The SAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. 2) With the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak compared with (1). The SAV in the seasonal cycle then causes variations in the QBO period and phase, and this amplifies the SAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. We conclude that, under realistic conditions as in (2), the solar seasonal forcing, with activity variations in radiance, causes the phase and period of the QBO to change to produce a relatively large solar activity effect in the zonal circulation at low latitudes and low altitudes.

Mengel, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Thermal Non-equilibrium Consistent with Widespread Cooling

Time correlation analysis has been used to show widespread cooling in the solar corona; this cooling has been interpreted as a result of impulsive (nanoflare) heating. In this work, we investigate wide-spread cooling using a 3D model for a solar active region which has been heated with highly stratified heating. This type of heating drives thermal non-equilibrium solutions, meaning that though the heating is effectively steady, the density and temperature in the solution are not. We simulate the expected observations in narrowband EUV images and apply the time correlation analysis. We find that the results of this analysis are qualitatively similar to the observed data. We discuss additional diagnostics that may be applied to differentiate between these two heating scenarios.

Winebarger, A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Thermal Non-equilibrium Consistent with Widespread Cooling

Winebarger, A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Target & Propagation Models for the FINDER Radar

Finding persons still alive in piles of rubble following an earthquake, a severe storm, or other disaster is a difficult problem. JPL is currently developing a victim detection radar called FINDER (Finding Individuals in Emergency and Response). The subject of this paper is directed toward development of propagation & target models needed for simulation & testing of such a system. These models are both physical (real rubble piles) and numerical. Early results from the numerical modeling phase show spatial and temporal spreading characteristics when signals are passed through a randomly mixed rubble pile.

propagation↗

DOE OSTI2023

GeoAI for Public Health

Infectious disease spread within the human population can be conceptualized as a complex system composed of individuals who interact and transmit viruses through spatio-temporal processes that manifest across and between scales. The complexity of this system ultimately means that the spread of infectious diseases is difficult to understand, predict, and respond to effectively. Research interest in GeoAI for public health has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources such as human mobility data, OpenStreetMap data, contact tracing data, symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce data, genomics data, and more. This data availability has resulted in a wide variety of data-driven solutions for infectious disease spread prediction which show potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities. This chapter (1) motivates the need for AI-based solutions in public health by showing the heterogeneity of human behavior related to health, (2) provides a brief survey of current state-of-the-art solutions using AI for infectious disease spread prediction, (3) describes a use-case of using large-scale human mobility data to inform AI models for the prediction of infectious disease spread in a city, and (4) provides future research directions and ideas.

Zufle, Andreas↗

NASA NTRS2012

Prevention of Over-Pressurization During Combustion in a Sealed Chamber

The combustion of flammable material in a sealed chamber invariably leads to an initial pressure rise in the volume. The pressure rise is due to the increase in the total number of gaseous moles (condensed fuel plus chamber oxygen combining to form gaseous carbon dioxide and water vapor) and, most importantly, the temperature rise of the gas in the chamber. Though the rise in temperature and pressure would reduce with time after flame extinguishment due to the absorption of heat by the walls and contents of the sealed spacecraft, the initial pressure rise from a fire, if large enough, could lead to a vehicle over-pressure and the release of gas through the pressure relief valve. This paper presents a simple lumped-parameter model of the pressure rise in a sealed chamber resulting from the heat release during combustion. The transient model considers the increase in gaseous moles due to combustion, and heat transfer to the chamber walls by convection and radiation and to the fuel-sample holder by conduction, as a function of the burning rate of the material. The results of the model are compared to the pressure rise in an experimental chamber during flame spread tests as well as to the pressure falloff after flame extinguishment. The experiments involve flame spread over thin solid fuel samples. Estimates of the heat release rate profiles for input to the model come from the assumed stoichiometric burning of the fuel along with the observed flame spread behavior. The sensitivity of the model to predict maximum chamber pressure is determined with respect to the uncertainties in input parameters. Model predictions are also presented for the pressure profile anticipated in the Fire Safety-1 experiment, a material flammability and fire safety experiment proposed for the European Space Agency (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV). Computations are done for a range of scenarios including various initial pressures and sample sizes. Based on these results, various mitigation approaches are suggested to prevent vehicle over-pressurization and help guide the definition of the space experiment.

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biological carbon pump estimate based on multidecadal hydrographic data

The transfer of photosynthetically produced organic carbon from surface to mesopelagic waters draws carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, current observation-based estimates disagree on the strength of this biological carbon pump (BCP). Earth system models (ESMs) also exhibit a large spread of BCP estimates, indicating limited representations of the known carbon export pathways. Here we use several decades of hydrographic observations to produce a top-down estimate of the strength of the BCP with an inverse biogeochemical model that implicitly accounts for all known export pathways. Our estimate of total organic carbon (TOC) export at 73.4 m (model euphotic zone depth) is 15.00 ± 1.12 Pg C year –1 , with only two-thirds reaching 100 m depth owing to rapid remineralization of organic matter in the upper water column. Partitioned by sequestration time below the euphotic zone, τ, the globally integrated organic carbon production rate with τ > 3 months is 11.09 ± 1.02 Pg C year –1 , dropping to 8.25 ± 0.30 Pg C year –1 for τ > 1 year, with 81% contributed by the non-advective-diffusive vertical flux owing to sinking particles and vertically migrating zooplankton. Nevertheless, export of organic carbon by mixing and other fluid transport of dissolved matter and suspended particles remains regionally important for meeting the respiratory carbon demand. Here, the temperature dependence of the sequestration efficiency inferred from our inversion suggests that future global warming may intensify the recycling of organic matter in the upper ocean, potentially weakening the BCP.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Three-Dimensional Upward Flame Spreading in Partial-Gravity Buoyant Flows

Reduced-gravity environments have been used to establish low-speed, purely forced flows for both opposed- and concurrent-flow flame spread studies. Altenkirch's group obtained spacebased experimental results and developed unsteady, two-dimensional numerical simulations of opposed-flow flame spread including gas-phase radiation, primarily away from the flammability limit for thin fuels, but including observations of thick fuel quenching in quiescent environments. T'ien's group contributed some early flame spreading results for thin fuels both in opposed flow and concurrent flow regimes, with more focus on near-limit conditions. T'ien's group also developed two- and three-dimensional numerical simulations of concurrent-flow flame spread incorporating gas-phase radiative models, including predictions of a radiatively-induced quenching limit reached in very low-speed air flows. Radiative quenching has been subsequently observed in other studies of combustion in very low-speed flows including other flame spread investigations, droplet combustion and homogeneous diffusion flames, and is the subject of several contemporary studies reported in this workshop. Using NASA aircraft flying partial-gravity "parabolic" trajectories, flame spreading in purely buoyant, opposed-flow (downward burning) has been studied. These results indicated increases in flame spread rates and enhanced flammability (lower limiting atmospheric oxygen content) as gravity levels were reduced from normal Earth gravity, and were consistent with earlier data obtained by Altenkirch using a centrifuge. In this work, experimental results and a three-dimensional numerical simulation of upward flame spreading in variable partial-gravity environments were obtained including some effects of reduced pressure and variable sample width. The simulation provides physical insight for interpreting the experimental results and shows the intrinsic 3-D nature of buoyant, upward flame spreading. This study is intended to link the evolving understanding of flame spreading in purely-forced flows to the purely-buoyant flow environment, particularly in the concurrent flow regime; provide additional insight into the existence of steady flame spread in concurrent flows; and stimulate direct comparisons between opposed- and concurrent-flow flame spread. Additionally, this effort is intended to provide direct practical understanding applicable to fire protection planning for the habitable facilities in partial gravity environments of anticipated Lunar and Martian explorations.

Sacksteder, Kurt R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Emulation of Spatial Deposition from a Multi-Physics Ensemble of Weather and Atmospheric Transport Models

In the event of an accidental or intentional hazardous material release in the atmosphere, researchers often run physics-based atmospheric transport and dispersion models to predict the extent and variation of the contaminant spread. These predictions are imperfect due to propagated uncertainty from atmospheric model physics (or parameterizations) and weather data initial conditions. Ensembles of simulations can be used to estimate uncertainty, but running large ensembles is often very time consuming and resource intensive, even using large supercomputers. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-based method which can be used to quickly emulate spatial deposition patterns from a multi-physics ensemble of dispersion simulations. We use a hybrid linear and logistic regression method that can predict deposition in more than 100,000 grid cells with as few as fifty training examples. Logistic regression provides probabilistic predictions of the presence or absence of hazardous materials, while linear regression predicts the quantity of hazardous materials. The coefficients of the linear regressions also open avenues of exploration regarding interpretability—the presented model can be used to find which physics schemes are most important over different spatial areas. A single regression prediction is on the order of 10,000 times faster than running a weather and dispersion simulation. However, considering the number of weather and dispersion simulations needed to train the regressions, the speed-up achieved when considering the whole ensemble is about 24 times. Ultimately, this work will allow atmospheric researchers to produce potential contamination scenarios with uncertainty estimates faster than previously possible, aiding public servants and first responders.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1996

Parafoveal Target Detectability Reversal Predicted by Local Luminance and Contrast Gain Control

This project is part of a program to develop image discrimination models for the prediction of the detectability of objects in a range of backgrounds. We wanted to see if the models could predict parafoveal object detection as well as they predict detection in foveal vision. We also wanted to make our simplified models more general by local computation of luminance and contrast gain control. A signal image (0.78 x 0.17 deg) was made by subtracting a simulated airport runway scene background image (2.7 deg square) from the same scene containing an obstructing aircraft. Signal visibility contrast thresholds were measured in a fully crossed factorial design with three factors: eccentricity (0 deg or 4 deg), background (uniform or runway scene background), and fixed-pattern white noise contrast (0%, 5%, or 10%). Three experienced observers responded to three repetitions of 60 2IFC trials in each condition and thresholds were estimated by maximum likelihood probit analysis. In the fovea the average detection contrast threshold was 4 dB lower for the runway background than for the uniform background, but in the parafovea, the average threshold was 6 dB higher for the runway background than for the uniform background. This interaction was similar across the different noise levels and for all three observers. A likely reason for the runway background giving a lower threshold in the fovea is the low luminance near the signal in that scene. In our model, the local luminance computation is controlled by a spatial spread parameter. When this parameter and a corresponding parameter for the spatial spread of contrast gain were increased for the parafoveal predictions, the model predicts the interaction of background with eccentricity.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

process-based modeling↗

NASA NTRS2000

Shock Formation of Slow Magnetosonic Waves in Coronal Plumes

We investigate the height of shock formation in coronal plumes for slow magnetosonic waves. The models take into account plume geometric spreading, heat conduction, and radiative damping. The wave parameters as well as the spreading functions of the plumes and the base magnetic field strengths are given by empirical constraints mostly from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ Ultraviolet Coronograph Spectrometer (UVCS), Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT), Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Our models show that shock formation occurs at relatively low coronal heights, typically within 1.2 RsuN, depending on the model parameters. The shock formation is calculated using the well-established wave breaking criterion given by the intersection of C+ characteristics in the space-time plane. Our models show that shock heating by slow magnetosonic waves is expected to be relevant at most heights in solar coronal plumes, although such waves are probably not the main energy supply mechanism.

Cuntz, Manfred↗

NASA NTRS2001

Momentum and Energy Assessments with NASA and Other Model and Data Assimilation Systems

Aspects of the angular momentum cycle, energetics, and related diagnostics from a number of models, including some from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, and from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) are examined. Torques that dynamically excite changes in angular momentum, including strong torques at mountains were studied. The measure of how atmospheric mass from a strong weather signal can notably change the angular momentum is studied. For AMIP, there is a spread in the angular momentum amongst models, while the GLA model does reasonably well compared to the other models in the diagnostics examined, namely angular momentum and water vapor. Trends and interannual variability in water vapor over a lengthy period was examined. The role of the diabatic heating components, especially latent heating, in the energy cycle and the terms converting available potential energy to kinetic energy, among other parts of the energy cycle, are studied. Modes of climate of the atmosphere, especially the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, are analyzed as well.

Salstein, David↗