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At least 433 records · Page 24

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Opportunities for green hydrogen production with land-based wind in the United States

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is an efficient energy carrier and storage mechanism that can supply both stationary and transport energy demand. Rapidly declining renewable energy generation costs; technology innovations in wind, solar, battery storage, and electrolysis; and a global push for more sustainable and secure energy have driven increased interest in green H 2 production. In this study, we develop an H 2 scenario analysis tool to assist in rapid, high-resolution insights into future, green H 2 pathways to achieve policy goals and market competitiveness. Using this tool, we estimate H 2 production and costs for U.S., off-grid scenarios given varying policy and cost scenarios from 2025–2035. Results indicate that achieving economically competitive green H 2 production (below $\$$2/kg) is possible in 2030 with no policy incentives (one site achieves this target), while increasing policy support to include wind and green H 2 production tax credits enables widespread economic viability sooner, with sub-$\$$2/kg LCOH targets achieved by 2025 and 51.7% of sites achieving this target by 2035. Maximizing policy support through prevailing wage and apprenticeship credit multipliers enable widespread economic viability, including sub-$\$$2/kg of green H 2 by 2025 and even negative pricing by 2035. Regions with lowest LCOH values correspond to high wind resource areas and capacity factors. Achieving decarbonization goals with green H 2 depends on technology cost reductions and policy support, with a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$23.10 between no and maximum policy support scenarios, and a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$25.86 between current, conservative technology costs and 2035 projected technology cost assumptions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Skylab report - Man's role in space research

Some of the early results reported by several investigators in the solar physics discipline are described, as well as a subjective response to long-term zero-gravity exposure in several areas related to medical studies. Many of the roles in which man has participated in research aboard Skylab will again be important in future space activities such as the Space Shuttle. Examples are pointing, alignment, transient identification and response, and assurance of data quality. These tasks can be extended to include a greater role in data management and interpretation, so that some selectivity or processing, or both, might be appropriate onboard the spacecraft, prior to transmission of data to the ground.

Garriott, O. K.↗

Performance Simulation of Autonomous Solar Navigation

The performance of a new type of autonomous solar navigation system is analyzed in this paper. Such efficient autonomous navigation systems will reduce operation costs and alleviate the Deep Space Network workload in future space missions. The method is demonstrated by applying it to the STEREO mission. Orbit determination is simulated through the use of the mission-defined trajectory profile and solar angular data acquired by the on-board science instruments currently being considered. The study shows that the orbit solution derived by this new type of solar navigation system can satisfy the mission's navigation requirements; the position uncertainties obtained in the simulations are well below the mission allowable values, and are comparable to the results obtained with the conventional Doppler tracking system in some cases.

Guo, Yanping↗

MODIS Solar Reflective Calibration Traceability

Long-term climate data records often consist of observations made by multiple sensors. It is, therefore, extremely important to have instrument overlap, to be able to track instrument stability, to quantify, measurement uncertainties, and to establish absolute scale traceable to the International System of Units (SI). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a key instrument for both the Terra and Aqua missions, which were launched in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively. It has 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) with wavelengths from 0.41 to 2.2 micrometers and observes the Earth at three nadir spatial resolutions: 0.25km, 0.5km, and 1km. MODIS RSB on-orbit calibration is reflectance based with reference to the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) of its on-board solar diffuser (SD). The SD BRF characterization was made pre-launch by the instrument vendor using reference samples traceable directly to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). On-orbit SD reflectance degradation is tracked by an on-board solar diffuser monitor (SDSM). This paper provides details of this calibration chain, from prelaunch to on-orbit operation, and associated uncertainty assessments. Using MODIS as an example, this paper also discusses challenges and key design requirements for future missions developed for accurate climate studies.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

Research Activities at NASA: “The Hera Astronaut Analog Mission, Astrobee, and the Advanced Composite Solar Sail System”

During this seminar, I will talk about three of the projects I’ve been involved with at NASA in the last few years: - The Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) is a ground-based astronaut analog mission run at NASA’s JSC in Houston to study and evaluate impacts on the crew due to isolation, remoteness, and confined habitation. NASA scientists use the collected data to develop and verify countermeasures to reduce or mitigate psychological and physiological effects for future Deep Space missions. This simulation was a 45-day trip to Mars’s moon Phobos and back with the goal of performing geological operations with complete communications delays in effect. - Astrobee is a new class of free-flying robots that operates in the interior of the International Space Station (ISS). In addition to being a research platform for microgravity free-flying robotics, Astrobee improves the efficiency of ISS operations by providing flight and payload controllers with a mobile camera and a sensor platform. - NASA is developing new deployable structures and material technologies for solar sail propulsion systems destined for future low-cost deep space missions. NASA’s Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) uses composite materials in its novel, lightweight booms that deploy from a Cubesat. Data obtained from ACS3 will guide the design of future larger-scale composite solar sail systems that could be used for several deep space exploration missions

International Space Station↗

Can We Power Future Mars Missions?

The Vision for Space Exploration identified the exploration of Mars as one of the key pathways. In response, NASAs Mars Program Office is developing a detailed mission lineup for the next decade that would lead to future explorations. Mission architectures for the next decade include both orbiters and landers. Existing power technologies, which could include solar panels, batteries, radioisotope power systems, and in the future fission power, could support these missions. Second and third decade explorations could target human precursor and human in-situ missions, building on increasingly complex architectures. Some of these could use potential feed forward from earlier Constellation missions to the Moon, discussed in the ESAS study. From a potential Mars Sample Return mission to human missions the complexity of the architectures increases, and with it the delivered mass and power requirements also amplify. The delivered mass at Mars mostly depends on the launch vehicle, while the landed mass might be further limited by EDL technologies, including the aeroshell, parachutes, landing platform, and pinpoint landing. The resulting in-situ mass could be further divided into payload elements and suitable supporting power systems. These power systems can range from tens of watts to multi-kilowatts, influenced by mission type, mission configuration, landing location, mission duration, and season. Regardless, the power system design should match the power needs of these surface assets within a given architecture. Consequently, in this paper we will identify potential needs and bounds of delivered mass and architecture dependent power requirements to surface assets that would enable future in-situ exploration of Mars.

solar panels↗

Improving Energy Efficiency and Self-Sufficiency on the Pechanga Indian Reservation

This project will study the feasibility and identify the preferred options necessary to allow the Pechanga Tribal Utility, now renamed Pechanga Western Electric (“PWE”) to carefully and thoughtfully expand from providing electrical service to the Tribe’s commercial enterprises and government center loads to also providing electrical service to the Tribe’s over 300 residential loads and potential future non-tribal commercial loads on the reservation. As well as, explore an option under which PWE will acquire solar and battery storage systems for the residential community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data‐driven identification of environmental variables influencing phenotypic plasticity to facilitate breeding for future climates

Summary Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well‐studied major crops. Using 727 maize ( Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions. The genetic algorithm identified pre‐ and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid‐season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity. The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well‐studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates.

Kusmec, Aaron↗

Impact of galactic cosmic ray simulation on nutritional content of foods

Foods packaged for future deep-space exploration missions may be prepositioned ahead of astronaut arrival, and will be exposed to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar radiation in deep space at higher levels and different spectrums than those found in low-Earth orbit (LEO). In this study, we have evaluated the impact of a GCR simulation (approximately 0.5 and 5 Gy doses) at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) on two retort thermostabilized food products that are good sources of radiation labile nutrients (thiamin, vitamin E, or unsaturated fats). No trends or nutritional differences were found between the radiation-treated samples and the control immediately after treatment or one-year after treatment. Small changes in a few nutrients were measured following one-year of storage. Further studies are needed to confirm these results, as the foods in this study were heterogeneous, and this may have masked meaningful changes due to pouch-to-pouch variations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Man's future in space

Studies evaluating potential operational and commercial uses of space are being conducted, taking into account astronomy, astrophysics, manned bases and laboratories in earth orbit, space colonization, terrestrial communications, space processing and manufacturing, interstellar probes, planetary exploration, and the use of space for terrestrial energy supply. The present status in the exploration of the solar system is examined, giving attention to Jupiter, Venus, Mars, and Mercury. A brief outline of the development of human colonies on Mars is presented.

Freitag, R. F.↗

Max 1991 and beyond

Max '91, a coordinated, broad based observational program, was designed to help maximize the scientific return of solar activity studies. Max '91 benefited from the support of the NOAA space environment laboratory. An important source that increases solar ground based support observations is the solar observing optical network (SOON) solar patrol on tape (SOONSPOT) solar image archival system which has started operations. The past means and the future plans for ground based coordination and communications of Max '91 are summarized. The current status and the future developments of SOONSPOT are presented.

Kiplinger, Alan L.↗

Retrievals of Thick Cloud Optical Depth from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) by Calibration of Solar Background Signal

Laser beams emitted from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), as well as other space-borne laser instruments, can only penetrate clouds to a limit of a few optical depths. As a result, only optical depths of thinner clouds (< about 3 for GLAS) are retrieved from the reflected lidar signal. This paper presents a comprehensive study of possible retrievals of optical depth of thick clouds using solar background light and treating GLAS as a solar radiometer. To do so we first calibrate the reflected solar radiation received by the photon-counting detectors of GLAS' 532 nm channel, which is the primary channel for atmospheric products. The solar background radiation is regarded as a noise to be subtracted in the retrieval process of the lidar products. However, once calibrated, it becomes a signal that can be used in studying the properties of optically thick clouds. In this paper, three calibration methods are presented: (I) calibration with coincident airborne and GLAS observations; (2) calibration with coincident Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and GLAS observations of deep convective clouds; (3) calibration from the first principles using optical depth of thin water clouds over ocean retrieved by GLAS active remote sensing. Results from the three methods agree well with each other. Cloud optical depth (COD) is retrieved from the calibrated solar background signal using a one-channel retrieval. Comparison with COD retrieved from GOES during GLAS overpasses shows that the average difference between the two retrievals is 24%. As an example, the COD values retrieved from GLAS solar background are illustrated for a marine stratocumulus cloud field that is too thick to be penetrated by the GLAS laser. Based on this study, optical depths for thick clouds will be provided as a supplementary product to the existing operational GLAS cloud products in future GLAS data releases.

Yang, Yuekui↗

Dynamic Range and Sensitivity Requirements of Satellite Ocean Color Sensors: Learning from the Past

Sensor design and mission planning for satellite ocean color measurements requires careful consideration of the signal dynamic range and sensitivity (specifically here signal-to-noise ratio or SNR) so that small changes of ocean properties (e.g., surface chlorophyll-a concentrations or Chl) can be quantified while most measurements are not saturated. Past and current sensors used different signal levels, formats, and conventions to specify these critical parameters, making it difficult to make cross-sensor comparisons or to establish standards for future sensor design. The goal of this study is to quantify these parameters under uniform conditions for widely used past and current sensors in order to provide a reference for the design of future ocean color radiometers. Using measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard the Aqua satellite (MODISA) under various solar zenith angles (SZAs), typical (L(sub typical)) and maximum (L(sub max)) at-sensor radiances from the visible to the shortwave IR were determined. The Ltypical values at an SZA of 45 deg were used as constraints to calculate SNRs of 10 multiband sensors at the same L(sub typical) radiance input and 2 hyperspectral sensors at a similar radiance input. The calculations were based on clear-water scenes with an objective method of selecting pixels with minimal cross-pixel variations to assure target homogeneity. Among the widely used ocean color sensors that have routine global coverage, MODISA ocean bands (1 km) showed 2-4 times higher SNRs than the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (Sea-WiFS) (1 km) and comparable SNRs to the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS)-RR (reduced resolution, 1.2 km), leading to different levels of precision in the retrieved Chl data product. MERIS-FR (full resolution, 300 m) showed SNRs lower than MODISA and MERIS-RR with the gain in spatial resolution. SNRs of all MODISA ocean bands and SeaWiFS bands (except the SeaWiFS near-IR bands) exceeded those from prelaunch sensor specifications after adjusting the input radiance to L(sub typical). The tabulated L(sub typical), L(sub max), and SNRs of the various multiband and hyperspectral sensors under the same or similar radiance input provide references to compare sensor performance in product precision and to help design future missions such as the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission and the Pre-Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems (PACE) mission currently being planned by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

chlorophyll fluorescence↗

A window on the composition of the early solar nebula: 2014MU69, Pluto, and Phoebe

The initial chemical composition of any solar nebula will depend upon the degree to which 1) organic and ice components form on dust grains, 2) organic and molecular species form in the gas phase, 3) organics and ices are exchanged between the gas and solid state, and 4) the precursor and newly formed (more complex) materials survive and are modified in the developing planetary system. Infrared and radio observations of star-forming regions reveal that complex chemistry occurs on icy grains, sometimes before stars even form. Additional processing, through the protosolar disk and within the solar nebula further modifies most, but probably not all, of the initial materials. In fact, the modern Solar System still carries a fraction of its interstellar inheritance [Alexander et al., 2017]. Here we focus on three examples of small bodies in our Solar System, each containing chemical and dynamical clues to its origin and evolution: the small, cold-classical Kuiper Belt object (KBO) 2014MU69 , Pluto and Saturn’s moon, Phoebe. The New Horizons flyby of 2014 MU69 has given the first view of an unaltered body composed of material originally in the solar nebula at ~45 AU. The spectrum reveals methanol ice (not commonly found), a possible detection of water ice (Stern et al. 2019). Pluto’s internal and surface inventory of volatiles and complex organics, together with active geological processes including cryo-volcanism, indicate a surprising level of activity on a body in the outermost region of the Solar System, and the fluid that emerges from subsurface reservoirs may contain material inherited from the solar nebula (Cruikshank et al. 2019). Meanwhile, Saturn's captured moon, Phoebe, carries high D/H in H2O [Clark et al. 2018)], and complex organics (Cruikshank et al. 2008), both consistent with its formation in, and inheritance from, the outer solar nebula. Together, these objects provide windows on the origin and evolution of our Solar System and constraints to be considered in future chemical and physical models of PPDs. The Spitzer Space telescope discovered the ring of dust around Saturn that emanated from the bombardment of Phoebe in the recent past, dislodging primitive Solar System material from deep within that satellite. In addition, Spitzer has provided detailed studies of the chemistry of star forming regions where methanol and other ices are readily observed. As a result of these and other observations, protoplanetary disk models are beginning to combine both dynamical and chemical complexities into their codes, resulting in new insights for exoplanetary systems.

Yvonne J. Pendleton↗

Snowmass 2021 Scintillating Bubble Chambers: Liquid-noble Bubble Chambers for Dark Matter and CE$\nu$NS Detection

The Scintillating Bubble Chamber (SBC) Collaboration is developing liquid-noble bubble chambers for the quasi-background-free detection of low-mass (GeV-scale) dark matter and coherent scattering (CE$\nu$NS) of low-energy (MeV-scale) neutrinos. The first physics-scale demonstrator of this technique, a 10-kg liquid argon bubble chamber dubbed SBC-LAr10, is now being commissioned at Fermilab. This device will calibrate the background discrimination power and sensitivity of superheated argon to nuclear recoils at energies down to 100 eV. A second functionally-identical detector with a focus on radiopure construction is being built for SBC's first dark matter search at SNOLAB. The projected spin-independent sensitivity of this search is approximately $10^{-43}$ cm$^2$ at 1 GeV$/c^2$ dark matter particle mass. The scalability and background discrimination power of the liquid-noble bubble chamber make this technique a compelling candidate for future dark matter searches to the solar neutrino fog at 1 GeV$/c^2$ particle mass (requiring a $\sim$ton-year exposure with non-neutrino backgrounds sub-dominant to the solar CE$\nu$NS signal) and for high-statistics CE$\nu$NS studies at nuclear reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Science Goals and Mission Concept for the Future Exploration of Titan and Enceladus

Saturn׳s moons, Titan and Enceladus, are two of the Solar System׳s most enigmatic bodies and are prime targets for future space exploration. Titan provides an analogue for many processes relevant to the Earth, more generally to outer Solar System bodies, and a growing host of newly discovered icy exoplanets. Processes represented include atmospheric dynamics, complex organic chemistry, meteorological cycles (with methane as a working fluid), astrobiology, surface liquids and lakes, geology, fluvial and aeolian erosion, and interactions with an external plasma environment. In addition, exploring Enceladus over multiple targeted flybys will give us a unique opportunity to further study the most active icy moon in our Solar System as revealed by Cassini and to analyse in situ its active plume with highly capable instrumentation addressing its complex chemistry and dynamics. Enceladus׳ plume likely represents the most accessible samples from an extra-terrestrial liquid water environment in the Solar system, which has far reaching implications for many areas of planetary and biological science. Titan with its massive atmosphere and Enceladus with its active plume are prime planetary objects in the Outer Solar System to perform in situ investigations. In the present paper, we describe the science goals and key measurements to be performed by a future exploration mission involving a Saturn-Titan orbiter and a Titan balloon, which was proposed to ESA in response to the call for definition of the science themes of the next Large-class mission in 2013. The mission scenario is built around three complementary science goals: (A) Titan as an Earth-like system; (B) Enceladus as an active cryovolcanic moon; and (C) Chemistry of Titan and Enceladus - clues for the origin of life. The proposed measurements would provide a step change in our understanding of planetary processes and evolution, with many orders of magnitude improvement in temporal, spatial, and chemical resolution over that which is possible with Cassini-Huygens. This mission concept builds upon the successes of Cassini-Huygens and takes advantage of previous mission heritage in both remote sensing and in situ measurement technologies.

future missions↗