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NASA NTRS1975

Effect of fuel properties on performance of a single aircraft turbojet combustor

The performance of a single-can JT8D combustor was investigated with a number of fuels exhibiting wide variations in chemical composition and volatility. Performance parameters investigated were combustion efficiency, emissions of CO, unburned hydrocarbons and NOx, as well as liner temperatures and smoke. At the simulated idle condition no significant differences in performance were observed. At cruise, liner temperatures and smoke increased sharply with decreasing hydrogen content of the fuel. No significant differences were observed in the performance of an oil-shale derived JP-5 and a petroleum-based Jet A fuel except for emissions of NOx which were higher with the oil-shale JP-5. The difference is attributed to the higher concentration of fuel-bound nitrogen in the oil-shale JP-5.

Butze, H. F.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Classification and generation of terrestrial rare gases

A Kr-84/Xe-130 versus Ne-20/Ar-36 diagram is a very useful format with which to study the elemental ratios of rare gases from terrestrial materials. It can separate not only the three types of rare gases which Ozima and Alexander (1976) classified but also the 'planetary' type rare gases from the other three types of rare gases. When all the available terrestrial rare gas data are plotted in a Kr-84/Xe-130 versus Ne-20/Ar-36 diagram, several observations can be made. First, most of the analyses of rare gases from shales yield Kr-84/Xe-130 ratios between the 'planetary' and atmospheric values. If, however, the atmosphere's high Kr-84/Xe-130 ratio was produced by the selective adsorption of xenon onto shales from an initially 'planetary' atmosphere, as is widely accepted, then the Kr-84/Xe-130 ratio in shales should be even lower than the 'planetary' value. Second, the rare gas pattern in the quenched rims of submarine basalts may be explained as fractionated samples of the rare gases in sea water.

Saito, K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Rare earth elements in the sedimentary cycle - A pilot study of the first leg

The effects of source rock composition and climate on the natural abundances of rare elements (REE) in the first leg of the sedimentary cycle are evaluated using a study with Holocene fluvia sands. The medium grained sand fraction of samples collected from first order streams exclusively draining granitic plutons in Montana (semi-arid), Georgia (humid), and South Carolina (humid) are analyzed. It is found that the REE distribution patterns (but not the total absolute abundances) of the daughter sands are very similar, despite compositional differences between parent plutons. Averages of the three areas are determined to have a La/Lu ratio of about 103, showing a depletion of heavy REE with respect to an average granite (La/Lu = 79) or the composition of North American Shales (La/Lu = 55). However, the Eu/Sm ratio in sands from these areas is about 0.22, which is very close to this ratio in North American Shales (0.21), although the overall REE distribution of these sands is not similar to that of the North American Shales in any way. It is concluded that the major rock type, but neither its minor subdivisions nor the climate, controls the REE distribution patterns in first cycle daughter sands, although the total and the parent rock-normalized abundances of REE in sands from humid areas are much lower than those in sands from arid areas.

Basu, A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Concept for Underground Disposal of Nuclear Waste

Packaged waste placed in empty oil-shale mines. Concept for disposal of nuclear waste economically synergistic with earlier proposal concerning backfilling of oil-shale mines. New disposal concept superior to earlier schemes for disposal in hard-rock and salt mines because less uncertainty about ability of oil-shale mine to contain waste safely for millenium.

Bowyer, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Research core drilling in the Manson impact structure, Iowa

The Manson impact structure (MIS) has a diameter of 35 km and is the largest confirmed impact structure in the United States. The MIS has yielded a Ar-40/Ar-39 age of 65.7 Ma on microcline from its central peak, an age that is indistinguishable from the age of the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. In the summer of 1991 the Iowa Geological Survey Bureau and U.S. Geological Survey initiated a research core drilling project on the MIS. The first core was beneath 55 m of glacial drift. The core penetrated a 6-m layered sequence of shale and siltstone and 42 m of Cretaceous shale-dominated sedimentary clast breccia. Below this breccia, the core encountered two crystalline rock clast breccia units. The upper unit is 53 m thick, with a glassy matrix displaying various degrees of devitrification. The upper half of this unit is dominated by the glassy matrix, with shock-deformed mineral grains (especially quartz) the most common clast. The glassy-matrix unit grades downward into the basal unit in the core, a crystalline rock breccia with a sandy matrix, the matrix dominated by igneous and metamorphic rock fragments or disaggregated grains from those rocks. The unit is about 45 m thick, and grains display abundant shock deformation features. Preliminary interpretations suggest that the crystalline rock breccias are the transient crater floor, lifted up with the central peak. The sedimentary clast breccia probably represents a postimpact debris flow from the crater rim, and the uppermost layered unit probably represents a large block associated with the flow. The second core (M-2) was drilled near the center of the crater moat in an area where an early crater model suggested the presence of postimpact lake sediments. The core encountered 39 m of sedimentary clast breccia, similar to that in the M-1 core. Beneath the breccia, 120 m of poorly consolidated, mildly deformed, and sheared siltstone, shale, and sandstone was encountered. The basal unit in the core was another sequence of sedimentary clast breccia. The two sedimentary clast units, like the lithologically similar unit in the M-1 core, probably formed as debris flows from the crater rim. The middle, nonbrecciated interval is probably a large, intact block of Upper Cretaceous strata transported from the crater rim with the debris flow. Alternatively, the sequence may represent the elusive postimpact lake sequence.

Anderson, R. R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

New Potential Sources for Black Onaping Carbon

One intriguing and important issue of the Sudbury Structure concerns the source of the relatively large amount of C in the Onaping Formation Black member. This dilemma was recently addressed, and the conclusion was reached that an impactor could not have delivered all of the requisite C. Becker et al. have suggested that much of the C came from the impactor and reported the presence of interstellar He "caged" inside some fullerenes that may have survived the impact. So, conceivably, the C inventory in the Sudbury Structure comes from both target and impactor materials, although the known target rocks have little C. We discuss here the possibility of two terrestrial sources for at least some of the C: (1) impact evaporation/dissociation of C from carbonate target rocks and (2) the presence of heretofore-unrecognized C-rich (up to 26 wt%) siliceous "shale," fragments, which are found in the upper, reworked Black member. Experimental: Hypervelocity impact of a 0.635-diameter Al projectile into dolomite at 5.03 km/s (performed at the Ames Research Center vertical gun range) produced a thin, black layer (= 0.05 mm thick) that partially lined the crater and coated impactor remnants. Scanning electronic microscope (SEM) imagery shows this layer to be spongelike on a submicron scale and Auger spectroscopic analyses yield: 33% C, 22% Mg, 19% 0, and 9% Al (from the projectile). Elemental mapping shows that all of the available 0 is combined with Ca and Mg, Al is not oxidized, and C is in elemental form. Dissociation efficiency of C from CO2 is estimated to be <10% of crater volume. Raman spectroscopy indicates that the C is highly disorganized graphite. Another impact experiment [4] also produced highly disordered graphite from a limestone target (reducing collector), in addition to small amounts of diamond/lonsdaleite/chaoite (oxidizing collector). These experiments confirm the reduction of C from carbonates in impact vapor plumes. Observational: SEM observations and microprobe analyses of small, black shalelike inclusions in the upper Black Onaping indicate high C contents (7-26 wt% avg. = 16%). They contain mostly quartz and carbonaceous matter with small amounts of altered K-feldspar, clays, Fe oxide, and a sulfide. No evidence of shock is seen in quartz, and overall characteristics indicate a natural, lightly metamorphosed carbonaceous shale or mudstone that probably existed as a preimpact rock in the target region and distal fragments washed in during early crater filling. Fragments range in size from tens of microns to cm and increase in abundance in the upper Black toward the Onwatin contact, although their distribution is highly irregular. This increase corresponds to an increase in "organic" C with increasingly negative delta-13 C values and S, together with a decrease in fullerene abundance. In addition, we have found soot in acid-demineralized residues of the Onwatin but not in the Onaping samples. These data could be consistent with impact plume and atmospheric chemical processes, with possible diageneric ovedays. We are analyzing carbonaceous fractions of the Onaping and Onwatin to determine diagnostic C isotopic signatures Analyses by Whitehead et al. on bulk samples revealed no definitive source or processes, although delta-13 C values for "organic" C overlapped those for some meteorites. Discussion: If impact evaporation of Sudbury target carbonates did occur, then where are the carbonates? Distal carbonate (limestone/dolostone) exposures of the Espanola Formation (Huronian Supergroup) are generally thin-bedded, although remnants that partially encompass the Sudbury Crater are variable in thickness and may locally reach 250 m . If a carbonate thickness of 100-200 in existed at the target site, then copious amounts of C could have been reduced by impact processing of carbonates and also C-shale, depending on the efficiency of the processing and the amount of postimpact oxidation. Conclusion: The Sudbury crater offers a unique opportunity to study preserved characteristics of immediate carbonaceous fallback matter and particles of short-term residency in the impact plume as well as dust/aerosols from postimpact atmospheric processing.

Bunch, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Use 0f AVIRIS Imagery To Assess Clay Mineralogy And Debris-Flow Potential In Cataract Canyon, Utah: A Preliminary Report

Worldwide debris flows destroy property and take human lives every year (Costa, 1984). As a result of extensive property damage and loss of life there is a pressing need to go beyond just describing the nature and extent of debris flows as they occur. Most of the research into debris-flow initiation has centered on rainfall, slope angle, and existing debris-flow deposits (Costa and Wieczorek, 1987). The factor of source lithology has been recently addressed by studies in the sedimentary terranes of Grand Canyon (Webb et al., 1996; Griffiths et al., 1996) and on the Colorado Plateau as a whole.3 On the Colorado Plateau shales dominated by kaolinite and illite clays are significantly more likely to be recent producers of debris-flows than are shales in which smectite clays dominate.3 Establishing the location of shales and colluvial deposits containing kaolinite and illite clays in sedimentary terranes on the Colorado Plateau is essential to predicting where debris flows are likely to occur. AVIRIS imagery can be used to distinguish between types of clay minerals (Chabrillat et al., 2001), providing the basis for surface-materials maps. The ultimate product of this study will be a model that can be used to estimate the debris-flow hazard in Cataract Canyon, Utah. This model will be based on GIS overlay analysis of debris-flow initiation factor maps, including surface-materials maps derived from AVIRIS data.

Rudd, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Search for Biosignatures on Mars: Using Predictive Geology to Optimize Exploration Targets

Predicting geologic context from satellite data is a method used on Earth for exploration in areas with limited ground truth. The method can be used to predict facies likely to contain organic-rich shales. Such shales concentrate and preserve organics and are major repositories of organic biosignatures on Earth [1]. Since current surface conditions on Mars are unfavorable for development of abundant life or for preservation of organic remains of past life, the chances are low of encountering organics in surface samples. Thus, focusing martian exploration on sites predicted to contain organic-rich shales would optimize the chances of discovering evidence of life, if it ever existed on that planet.

Oehler, Dorothy Z.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Organic acid solution having at least one ionic salt and at least one organic acid which is used for rare earth extraction

One or more embodiments relates to a process for extracting Rare Earth Elements (REEs) from REE-bearing underclays, claystones, shales, coal-mining waste, and waste coal. In at least one embodiment the process includes contacting the REE-bearing underclays, claystones, shales, coal-mining waste, and waste coal with an Organic Acid Solution (OAS) comprising at least one organic acid and at least one ionic salt at a predetermined ambient temperature and predetermined pH; and separating the REE from the REE-bearing underclays, claystones, shales, coal-mining waste, and waste coal, forming REE+Yttrium (REY) concentrate.

Verba, Circe↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of acoustic waves under subsurface conditions to improve the predictions of rock mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics

Mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics are critical to investigate for subsurface engineering applications, including carbon storage, well drilling, and stimulation, as they govern rock stability, fluid flow, and mechanical behavior under stress. This dissertation integrates experimental and machine learning approaches to enhance the prediction and understanding of these properties by analyzing acoustic wave behavior under varied subsurface conditions. First, the influence of temperature, pore pressure, and supercritical CO2 (scCO2) saturation on poroelastic properties is examined using Gray Berea sandstone samples. The results show that temperature and pore pressure significantly affect the bulk modulus and Biot’s coefficient, while scCO2 saturation impacts rock compressibility, informing strategies for effective geological carbon storage. The study extends this understanding by experimentally evaluating the impact of reservoir depletion on the dynamic mechanical properties of the emerging Caney shale in South Oklahoma with the employment of unsupervised machine learning to predict static mechanical properties across the Caney shale. Integrating petrophysical data and chemostratigraphy, the workflow—featuring K-means clustering, principal component analysis (PCA), and inverse distance weighting (IDW)—improves stratigraphic characterization and the estimation of static-to-dynamic modulus ratios, which is vital for optimizing drilling and stimulation strategies. Finally, the work explores how natural fracture characteristics in shale influence acoustic waveforms and shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis. Experimental data on fractured samples under different stress and temperature conditions, combined with machine learning models such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), reveal key fracture properties impacting SWS and wave propagation. Together, these studies provide a comprehensive framework for linking acoustic wave behavior with rock properties, advancing the methods for monitoring and predicting geomechanical changes. The insights offered valuable implications for safer, more efficient CO2 injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and subsurface management.

Elkholy, Sherif↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen adsorption and transport in clay-rich geomaterials: Implications for large-volume underground hydrogen storage

Depleted oil and gas reservoirs, characterized by impermeable clay-rich caprocks, are promising sites for large-scale underground hydrogen storage (UHS), which is a key strategy to support hydrogen-based energy systems. However, experimental data on hydrogen storage in clay-rich geomaterials remain scarce. In this work, we experimentally investigated hydrogen adsorption and migration in clay-rich geomaterials in the presence of nitrogen and water under controlled temperatures. Experimental observations showed that hydrogen was adsorbed in dry illite. A dual-porosity transport model was developed to interpret hydrogen transport between large-pore and small-pore domains in illite. The large-pore domain is the space between clay particles (i.e., inter-particle space), whereas the small-pore domain is the nanoscale pore space between clay mineral layers (i.e., inter-layer or intra-particle space). In contrast, nitrogen showed no evidence of adsorption in dry illite because it cannot move into the small-pore domain due to the relatively large kinetic diameter, referred to as the molecular sieving effect. Here, we found that 0.7–1.3 nm is the length scale regulating this molecular sieving effect, matching the interlayer spacing in illite, suggesting that nitrogen is a promising cushion gas in UHS, which aims to maintain adequate pressure in the reservoir for economic operations. In wetted illite, hydrogen was not adsorbed into the interlayer space due to the occupation of adsorption sites by interlayer water, which highlights the critical role of the clay hydration state in controlling hydrogen-clay interactions. Additionally, hydrogen adsorption experiments on crushed shale indicated that the shale surface possessed adsorption sites more favorable for hydrogen than for nitrogen. Through these experiments, we provide new insights into hydrogen storage mechanisms in clay-rich geomaterials and offer valuable laboratory data for evaluating the performance of large-scale UHS systems.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surfactants are Ineffective for Reducing Imbibition of Water-Based Fracturing Fluids in Deep Gas Reservoirs

Minimizing loss of injected hydraulic fracturing fluids into shale along fracture-matrix boundaries is desired because imbibed water restricts gas production and wastes valuable water resources. This problem has motivated the addition of surfactants into water-based hydraulic fracturing fluids in order to reduce the capillary driving force for imbibition. Here, we show that reduction in interfacial tension and wettability alteration has negligible ability to reduce imbibition in deep gas reservoirs. The effectiveness of altering capillary forces acting at the wetting front also depends on the injection pressure acting at the fracture-matrix boundary. The pressure at the interface between the fracture and the shale matrix is constrained between the reservoir pore pressure and formation pressure (rock fracture pressure, also known as breakdown pressure of the rock) and increases with depth to magnitudes that greatly exceed that of capillary pressures. Furthermore, the analyses presented here show that even maximum alteration of interfacial properties that result in strongly hydrophobic interactions between the fracturing fluid and reservoir rock is incapable of significantly reducing imbibition in deep reservoirs. Instead of using surfactants, this analysis points to decreases in wellbore shut-in pressures and shut-in times as practical options for reducing imbibition losses of water-based fluids.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of Nanoconfinement on NMR Relaxation of Heptane in Kerogen from Molecular Simulations and Measurements

Kerogen-rich shale reservoirs will play a key role during the energy transition, yet the effects of nanoconfinement on the NMR relaxation of hydrocarbons in kerogen are poorly understood. Here, we use atomistic MD simulations to investigate the effects of nanoconfinement on the 1H NMR relaxation times T 1 and T 2 of heptane in kerogen. In the case of T 1 , we discover the important role of confinement in reducing T 1 by ~3 orders of magnitude from that of bulk heptane, in agreement with measurements of heptane dissolved in kerogen from the Kimmeridge Shale, without any models or free parameters. In the case of T 2 , we discover that confinement breaks spatial isotropy and gives rise to residual dipolar coupling which reduces T 2 by ~5 orders of magnitude from the value for bulk heptane. We use the simulated T 2 to calibrate the surface relaxivity and thence predict the pore-size distribution of the organic nanopores in kerogen, without additional experimental data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of Mineralogy in Controlling Fracture Formation

The presence of fractures in caprocks can pose increased risks in subsurface energy systems and processes like CO 2 sequestration by introducing high-permeability leakage paths. Fracture apertures and permeability can be altered through mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions, but the reactive evolution of fractures is not well understood. In fractures, minerals that are otherwise inaccessible to reactive fluids can become exposed, resulting in mineral reactions unpredicted by bulk formation data. This work seeks to understand the relationship between mineralogy and fracture formation to enhance our understanding of reactive fracture evolution and CO 2 leakage potential. Here, the mineral compositions of mechanically induced fracture surfaces in samples of the Mancos and Marcellus shales have been quantified and compared to those of the near-fracture matrices using imaging and bulk X-ray diffraction (XRD) data. In the Mancos shale, the concentrations of clay minerals are enhanced along fracture surfaces with respect to the bulk, and the fracture is most likely to form at kaolinite–kaolinite interfaces. Further, evaluation of the mineralogical spatial variability through cross-correlation analysis of the surrounding matrix in images of samples cut perpendicular to the fracture shows that clay is 16.7 times more likely to be present than carbonate minerals near the fracture surface. The high correlation persists roughly 200 μm into the surrounding matrix for the Mancos sample and implies that the fracture formed within a defined clay-rich lithofacies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Science-informed Machine Learning to Increase Recovery Efficiency in Unconventional Reservoirs

Production of hydrocarbons from fractured, unconventional reservoirs is inherently inefficient. But machine learning offers a pathway both to increasing recovery efficiency at a site and to improving forecasts of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. Los Alamos—in partnership with DOE, NETL, and WVU—has been developing a science-informed workflow and platform for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which will allow an operator to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. This work relies on a hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (in combination with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. The physics-based prediction is built upon experimental and theoretical work to determine transport characteristics in shale at various scales, with an emphasis on materials from MSEEL-I; this fundamental shale R&D was conducted in partnership with DOE, NETL, and several other national labs. This work has resulted from a coordinated leveraging of developments across several projects within DOE FE30, along with internal investments from Los Alamos via LDRD. The development has utilized data from the MSEEL–I site for calibration and demonstration; however, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins. This machine-learning method can aid operators to improve both recovery efficiency and competitiveness; to this end, future work would quantify processes for other plays/basins and integrate production details with economics.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

CO₂ Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO₂-SCREEN) User’s Manual

This user’s manual guides the use of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) CO₂ Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO₂-SCREEN) tool, which was developed to aid users screening geologic formations for prospective CO₂ storage resources. This manual is specific to the CO₂-SCREEN 4.0 version which is based in Python. CO₂-SCREEN applies U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) methods and equations for estimating prospective CO₂ storage resources for saline formations, shale formations, and residual oil zones (ROZ). CO₂-SCREEN was developed to be substantive and user-friendly and provide a consistent method for calculating prospective CO₂ storage resources. CO₂-SCREEN uses a Java based graphical user interface for data inputs and uses Python to calculate prospective CO₂ storage resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-dependent THMC properties and microstructural evolution of damaged rocks in excavation damage zone

Modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in host rocks near high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repositories at various time scales is an extremely challenging task. The current study integrates experimental, theoretical, and numerical methods in assessing the evolution of excavation damage zone (EDZ) over time and its implication on the long-term migration of hazardous species. Argillite and rock salt and are the focus of this study. The first part of the report presents a novel time-dependent directional microcrack damage theory for generic brittle rocks. It features detailed statistical description of the microcracks within a damaged solid, permitting a direct upscaling of microscale processes such as crack growth kinetics, crack closure/opening, sliding friction to explain the macroscopic creep, nonlinear elasticity, shear dilation, and loading-unloading hysteresis. This provides a basic platform for describing the anisotropic mechanical and transport properties of damaged rocks during excavation and subsequent THMC loadings. The model is validated and numerically implemented to Finite Element (FE) package ABAQUS through the user-defined material (UMAT) interface and have demonstrated great potential in resolving the time-dependent and anisotropic evolution of damage in the EDZ. The second part of the report presents a multi-scale experimental effort in characterizing the thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical properties of Mancos shale and Avery Island salt. For the Mancos shale, triaxial compression tests are performed at different confining pressures and temperatures to probe its thermomechanical properties relevant to HLW repositories. The obtained stress-strain data are interpreted using the proposed directional damage theory. Post-test specimens are subjected to gas permeability tests to reveal the correlation between permeability and the degree of microcracking. At microscale, temperature-controlled nanoindentation tests are performed and found a linear correlation between fracture toughness and elastic modulus from 25°C to 300°C. For Avery Island salt, we have designed and manufactured a novel relative-humidity controlled uniaxial creep device. Long-term creep tests at low stresses (< 5 MPa) are performed at different levels of relative humidity (RH). Besides confirming the much higher creep rates as one would expect through extrapolating the high-stress creep data, the results reveal that the steady-state creep rate of rock salt is strongly dependent on the ambient RH, an aspect that is often neglected in the literature. Both behaviors can be attributed to the pressure-solution creep mechanism which dominates at low stress and high RH levels. The third part of the report explores a set of numerical strategies in modeling the THMC behavior of porous geomaterials. A fully implicit, monolithic FE solution that can flexibly interface with different material models and coupling mechanisms for THMC problems is developed and verified through the ABAQUS user-defined element (UEL) interface. The scheme is used to study the THM response of a hypothetical HLW storage site with reference to an existing in-situ heater test. Strategies for integrating the UEL and the microcrack UMAT are suggested. Another numerical endeavor of this study is to implement a higher-order asymptotic homogenization method to account for the heterogeneous porous structures. The same method is then extended to perform microstructure-informed thermo-mechanical modeling of generalized continua. The above outcomes of this project provide a strong thrust towards enhancing the fundamental understanding and modeling capability of the long-term evolution of host rocks in EDZ, thus helping achieve the design goal of 1-million-year isolation of high-level nuclear wastes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗