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At least 433 records · Page 24

Multibody Modeling and Simulation for the Mars Phoenix Lander Entry, Descent and Landing

A multi-body flight simulation for the Phoenix Mars Lander has been developed that includes high fidelity six degree-of-freedom rigid-body models for the parachute and lander system. The simulation provides attitude and rate history predictions of all bodies throughout the flight, as well as loads on each of the connecting lines. In so doing, a realistic behavior of the descending parachute/lander system dynamics can be simulated that allows assessment of the Phoenix descent performance and identification of potential sensitivities for landing. This simulation provides a complete end-to-end capability of modeling the entire entry, descent, and landing sequence for the mission. Time histories of the parachute and lander aerodynamic angles are presented. The response of the lander system to various wind models and wind shears is shown to be acceptable. Monte Carlo simulation results are also presented.

Queen, Eric M.↗

Comparative evaluation of twenty pilot workload assessment measure using a psychomotor task in a moving base aircraft simulator

A comparison of the sensitivity and intrusion of twenty pilot workload assessment techniques was conducted using a psychomotor loading task in a three degree of freedom moving base aircraft simulator. The twenty techniques included opinion measures, spare mental capacity measures, physiological measures, eye behavior measures, and primary task performance measures. The primary task was an instrument landing system (ILS) approach and landing. All measures were recorded between the outer marker and the middle marker on the approach. Three levels (low, medium, and high) of psychomotor load were obtained by the combined manipulation of windgust disturbance level and simulated aircraft pitch stability. Six instrument rated pilots participated in four seasons lasting approximately three hours each.

Connor, S. A.↗

Thiocyanate Ions Form Antiparallel Populations at the Concentrated Electrolyte/Charged Surfactant Interface

Anions play significant roles in the separation of lanthanides and actinides. The molecular-scale details of how these anions behave at aqueous interfaces are not well understood, especially at high ionic strengths. Here, we describe the interfacial structure of thiocyanate anions at a soft charged interface up to 5 M bulk concentration with combined classical and phase-sensitive and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. At low concentrations thiocyanate ions are mostly oriented with their sulfur end pointing toward the charged surfactants. In this work, the VSFG signal reaches a plateau at around 100 mM bulk concentration, followed by significant changes above 1 M. At high concentrations a new thiocyanate population emerges with their sulfur end pointing toward the bulk liquid. The –CN stretch frequency is different for up and down oriented SCN – ions, indicating different coordination environments. These results provide key molecular-level insights for the interfacial behavior of complex anions in highly concentrated solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

In Situ Velocity‐Strain Sensitivity Near the San Jacinto Fault Zone Analyzed Through Train Tremors

Abstract We utilize train tremors as P‐wave seismic sources to investigate velocity‐strain sensitivity near the San Jacinto Fault Zone. A dense nodal array deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory is used to detect and identify repeating train energy emitted from a railway in the Coachella valley. We construct P‐wave correlation functions across the fault zone and estimate the spatially averaged dt / t versus strain sensitivity to be 6.25 × 10 4 . Through numerical simulations, we explore how the sensitivity decays exponentially with depth. The optimal solution reveals a subsurface sensitivity of 1.2 × 10 5 and a depth decay rate of 0.05 km −1 . This sensitivity aligns with previous findings but is toward the higher end, likely due to the fractured fault‐zone rocks. The depth decay rate, previously unreported, is notably smaller than assumed in empirical models. This raises the necessity of further investigations of this parameter, which is crucial to study stress and velocity variations at seismogenic depth.

Geology↗

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

Douglass, A. R.↗

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Voronoi Meshes for Large Eddy Simulations of High Lift Aerodynamics

Numerical sensitivity to 3 different Voronoi seeding methods is investigated for Large Eddy Simulations (LES). A second order accurate, non-dissipative finite volume discretization is used to systematically investigate the effects of different polyhedral Voronoi mesh types using a sequence of three canonical problems with increasing complexity. First, inviscid isentropic vortex propagation is studied to demonstrate the substantial reduction of errors for rhombic dodecahedron and truncated octahedral cell types over Cartesian hexagonal cells of identical spacing. Furthermore, the reduction of errors induced at cell-size transitions (grid-coarsening interfaces) due to Lloyd smoothing iterations is quantified. It is shown that by utilizing an appropriate viscous flux discretization, a constant coefficient subgrid scale model is sufficient for non-linear stability at the 2:1 cell-size transitions on polyhedral grids, although some further error reduction does occur when smoothing is utilized. Next, forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence at an asymptotically large Reynolds number is studied to demonstrate the non-dissipative character of the inviscid flux discretization, and the non-linear robustness and accuracy offered by the viscous flux discretization using a subgrid scale model for all three Voronoi grid types. Finally,Wall-Modeled Large Eddy Simulations (WMLES) are performed to study the high-lift aerodynamics on the McDonnell Douglas 30P30N multi-element airfoil at two distinct grid levels and for two distinct Voronoi cell types. The formulation is shown to predict the aerodynamic loading with high accuracy at all angles of attack when sufficient resolution is reached, and the hexagonal prism grid topology, while computationally more expensive, has higher effective resolution compared to the Cartesian grid topology with the same spacing.

TTT↗

Evaluation of Voronoi Meshes for Large Eddy Simulations of High Lift Aerodynamics

Numerical sensitivity to 3 different Voronoi seeding methods is investigated for Large Eddy Simulations (LES). A second order accurate, non-dissipative finite volume discretization is used to systematically investigate the effects of different polyhedral Voronoi mesh types using a sequence of three canonical problems with increasing complexity. First, inviscid isentropic vortex propagation is studied to demonstrate the substantial reduction of errors for rhombic dodecahedron and truncated octahedral cell types over Cartesian hexagonal cells of identical spacing. Furthermore, the reduction of errors induced at cell-size transitions (grid-coarsening interfaces) due to Lloyd smoothing iterations is quantified. It is shown that by utilizing an appropriate viscous flux discretization, a constant coefficient subgrid scale model is sufficient for non-linear stability at the 2:1 cell-size transitions on polyhedral grids, although some further error reduction does occur when smoothing is utilized. Next, forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence at an asymptotically large Reynolds number is studied to demonstrate the non-dissipative character of the inviscid flux discretization, and the non-linear robustness and accuracy offered by the viscous flux discretization using a subgrid scale model for all three Voronoi grid types. Finally, Wall-Modeled Large Eddy Simulations (WMLES) are performed to study the high-lift aerodynamics on the McDonnell Douglas 30P30N multi-element airfoil at two distinct grid levels and for two distinct Voronoi cell types. The formulation is shown to predict the aerodynamic loading with high accuracy at all angles of attack when sufficient resolution is reached, and the hexagonal prism grid topology, while computationally more expensive, has higher effective resolution compared to the Cartesian grid topology with the same spacing.

TTT↗

Mesh objective stochastic simulations of quasibrittle fracture

Continuum finite element (FE) modeling of damage and failure of quasibrittle structures suffers from the spurious mesh sensitivity due to strain localization. Here this issue has been addressed for deterministic analysis through the development of localization limiters. Here this study proposes a mechanism-based model to mitigate the mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture. The interest is placed on the analysis of large-size structures, where the mesh size is conveniently chosen to be larger than the width of the fracture process zone as well as the correlation length of the random fields of constitutive properties. The present model is formulated within the framework of continuum damage mechanics. Two localization parameters are introduced to describe the evolution of the damage pattern of each finite element. These parameters are used to guide the energy regularization of the constitutive law, as well as to formulate the mesh-dependent probability distributions of constitutive properties. Depending on the prevailing damage pattern, different energy regularization schemes and mesh dependence of the probability distribution functions are used in the constitutive law. The model is applied to simulate the stochastic failure behavior of quasibrittle structures of different geometries featuring different failure processes including damage initiation, localization, and propagation. It is shown that using fixed probability distribution functions of constitutive properties could lead to strong mesh dependence of the prediction of the mean and variance of the structural load capacity. The probability distribution functions of constitutive properties must be linked to the damage pattern, which may evolve during the failure process. Such a mechanism-based modeling of the probability distributions of constitutive properties is essential for mitigating the spurious mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE analysis of quasibrittle fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of environmental backgrounds on atmospheric monitoring of nuclear explosions

Radionuclide monitoring for nuclear explosions includes measuring radioactive aerosol and noble gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has made such measurements for decades, revealing much about how atmospheric radioactivity impacts the sensitivity of the network. For example, civilian emissions of radioiodine make a substantial regional impact, but a minor global impact, while civilian radioxenon emissions create major regional and complex global impacts. This example statement is strongly influenced by the minimum signal level anticipated to be interesting. The original design of the IMS anticipated relatively large signal levels, and the accomplished IMS network substantially meets or exceeds the sensitivity needed to detect those signal levels. Much lower signal levels can be motivated, which could require reconsideration of station sensitivity. Using measured and simulated background concentrations, various possible desired signal levels, and an innovative anomaly threshold, maps of sensitivity and a station ranking are developed for current and future stations. These provide a strong motivation for additional experimentation to learn about sources and the potential plusses of new technology.

Eslinger, Paul W.↗

On the Links Between Ice Nucleation, Cloud Phase, and Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

Ice nucleation in mixed-phase clouds has been identified as a critical factor in projections of future climate. Here we explore how this process influences climate sensitivity using the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We find that ice nucleation affects simulated cloud feedbacks over most regions and levels of the troposphere, not just extratropical low clouds. However, with present-day global mean cloud phase adjusted to replicate satellite retrievals, similar total cloud feedback is attained whether ice nucleation is simulated as aerosol-sensitive, insensitive, or absent. These model experiments all result in a strongly positive total cloud feedback, as in the default CESM2. A microphysics update from CESM1 to CESM2 had substantially weakened ice nucleation, due partly to a model issue. Our findings indicate that this update reduced global cloud phase bias, with CESM2's high climate sensitivity reflecting improved mixed-phase cloud representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanism-Based Energy Regularization in Computational Modeling of Quasibrittle Fracture

Abstract Quasibrittle materials are featured by a strain-softening constitutive behavior under many loading scenarios, which could eventually lead to localization instability. It has long been known that strain localization would result in spurious mesh sensitivity in finite element (FE) simulations. Previous studies have shown that, for the case of fully localized damage, the mesh sensitivity can be mitigated through energy regularization of the material constitutive law. However, depending on the loading configuration and structural geometry, quasibrittle structures could exhibit a complex damage process, which involves both localized and diffused damage patterns at different stages of loading. This study presents a generalized energy regularization method that considers the spatial and temporal evolution of damage pattern. The method introduces a localization parameter, which describes the local damage pattern. The localization parameter governs the energy regularization of the constitutive model, which captures the transition from diffused to localized damage during the failure process. The method is cast into an isotropic damage model, and is further extended to rate-dependent behavior. The energy regularization scheme is directly incorporated into the kinetics of damage growth. The model is applied to simulate static and dynamic failures of ceramic specimens. It is shown that the present model is able to effectively mitigate the spurious mesh sensitivity in FE simulations of both types of failure. The present analysis demonstrates the essential role of mechanism-based energy regularization of constitutive relation in FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture.

Mechanics↗

A crystal plasticity finite element model embedding strain-rate sensitivities inherent to deformation mechanisms: Application to alloy AZ31

We report the fundamental power-law relationship representing the flow rule in crystal visco-plasticity ensures uniqueness in the selection of slip systems accommodating imposed plastic strain-rates. The power-law relationship also introduces an artificially high strain-rate sensitivity in crystal plasticity simulations, unless a high value of the power-law exponent is used. However, the use of high values for the exponent is limited by numerical tractability. This paper presents a numerical method implemented in a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model for embedding any value of the power-law exponent reflecting the true material strain-rate sensitivity. Importantly, the method does not increase computation time involved in the simulations. The enhanced CPFE model is used to interpret and predict a complex strain-rate sensitive response and microstructural evolution of AZ31 Mg alloy. Measured values of strain-rate sensitivity for slip and twinning modes are used in the simulations. Calculations show that the model successfully captures the phenomena pertaining to the effect of changing applied strain-rate on the mechanical response including flow stress and evolution of texture and twinning for a broad range of strain-rates ranging from 10 -3 s -1 to 10 3 s -1 and loading orientations in tension and compression. It is shown that such predictions are a consequence of not only relative amounts of slip and twinning activities driven by a set of accurately characterized hardening law parameters but also values of the strain-rate sensitivities inherent to individual deformation mechanisms. Besides, the model validates the measured strain-rate dependency of deformation mechanisms while accurately reproducing the mechanical data. Hence, the model can be used to verify and further refine or infer measured strain-rate sensitivity per deformation mechanism by reproducing experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity of Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest Net Ecosystem Productivity to Seasonal Anomalies in Weather

Abstract. A process-oriented, daily time step model of a spruce/moss boreal ecosystem simulated 1994 and 1995 productivity for a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study site near Thompson, Manitoba. Simulated black spruce net primary productivity (NPP) was 139 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 112 in 1995; feathermoss NPP was 13.0 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 9.7 in 1995; decomposition was 126 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 130 in 1995; net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was an uptake of 26.3 g C m(exp -2)in 1994 and 2.5 in 1995. A very dry period for the first half of the 1995 summer was the major cause of that year's lower productivity. Sensitivity simulations explored the impact of 2-month long warmer, cooler, wetter, and drier spells on ecosystem productivity. Warmer summers decreased spruce NPP, moss NPP, and NEP; cooler summers had the opposite effect. Earlier snowmelt (due to either warmer spring temperatures or reduced winter precipitation) increased moss and spruce NPP; later snowmelt had the opposite effect. The largest effect on decomposition was a 5% reduction due to a drier summer. One-month droughts (April through October) were also imposed on 1975 base year weather. Early summer droughts reduced moss annual NPP by -30-40%; summer droughts reduced spruce annual NPP by 10%; late summer droughts increased moss NPP by about 20% due to reduced respiration; May to September monthly droughts reduced heterotrophic respiration by about 10%. Variability in NEP was up to roughly +/- 35%. Finally, 1975 growing season precipitation was redistributed into frequent, small rainstorms and infrequent, large rainstorms. These changes had no effect on spruce NPP. Frequent rainstorms increased decomposition by a few percent, moss NPP by 50%, and NEP by 20%. Infrequent rainstorms decreased decomposition by 5%, moss NPP by 50% and NEP by 15%. The impact of anomalous weather patterns on productivity of this ecosystem depended on their timing during the year. Multiyear data sets are necessary to understand this behavior and test these types of models.

Frolking, Steve↗

Sensitivity of bone cell populations to weightlessness and simulated weightlessness

A rat suspension model for simulating certain aspects of weightlessness is discussed. Perturbations in physiological systems induced by this head down suspension model are verified by flight data. Findings of a suppression of osteoblast differentiation help explain the inhibition of bone formation inflight and during Earth-bound simulations. Since the anatomical site for these studies was in the maxilla, which is gravity loaded but non weightbearing in ground-based simulations, the similarity of bone cell kinetic changes, both inflight and in the ground-based model, suggest that fluid shifts rather than unloading may play an important role in bone alterations, at least at this sampling site.

Roberts, W. E.↗