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At least 433 records · Page 24

Long-term Average Spectral and Spatial Distributions of Plasmaspheric Hiss Observed by the Akebono and IMAGE Satellites

The radiation belt slot region is known to result from losses of energetic electrons by enhanced pitch-angle scattering by whistler mode waves associated with plasmaspheric hiss emission. The distributions of whistler mode waves in the slot L range are therefore important for understanding the electron radiation belt. The sources and distributions of the waves are, however, still controversial. In the present study, using the Akebono/MCA data [1989-20051 and the IMAGE/RPI data [2000-20051, we have constructed the average plasmaspheric hiss spectral distributions over a broad frequency range. In addition, we have investigated the spatial distributions of plasmaspheric hiss with the wave map technique [Green et a1.(2005)]. Our study shows that the broadband plasmaspheric hiss are distributed in the frequency range of 100Hz to several kHz, and exhibit a broad intensive peak. The frequency of the intensity peak tends to increase with magnetic latitude. The frequencies of the most intense waves in the nominal slot L range (2<3) during quiet times (Dst>-50nT) are found to be between 300Hz and 600Hz on average. During high storm activity (Dst <-150nT), however, the peak frequencies become slightly lower. The intensity of plasmaspheric hiss clearly depends on substorm activity as measured by the AE index, consistent with Meredith et a1.(2004). The hiss wave intensity maps also show a strong local time asymmetry. The large amplitude waves are observed at 6:OO-19:OO MLT. From our extensive analysis, we have also found an L dependence of hiss activity, with the larger amplitude waves being observed at lower L during substorm active conditions. The same tendency can be found for solar activity. The average intensities of the waves during 1989-1991 and 2000-2001 are a few dB larger than those during 1992-1997 and 2005. The most intense waves are observed at lower L during high solar activity. The statistical study on spectrum features of the plasmaspheric hiss together with the spatial distribution show clear dependences of storm, substorm and solar activities.

Fung, Shing↗

High concentrations of ice: Investigations using polarimetric radar observations combined with in situ measurements and cloud modeling (Final Report)

This DOE-funded joint project had the over-arching goal of understanding the reasons for observed size distributions of ice particles in cold clouds. Its approach involves the use of cloud models and field observations by radar and aircraft of real storms. The project addresses three major research objectives: (1) Utilize a novel polarimetric radar technique to retrieve size distributions and amounts of ice from radar data collected during the previous DOE ARM field campaigns; (2) Evaluate the results of ice microphysical retrievals using available in situ aircraft measurements and other remote sensors (e.g., vertically pointing cloud radars and wind profilers); (3) Improve the treatment of microphysical processes leading to cloud glaciation and ice multiplication in numerical cloud models. The study was performed by three research organizations: University of Oklahoma, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, and Lund University, Sweden. The Israel and Swedish partners were funded by the sub-awards from the University of Oklahoma. Cloud modeling studies have been performed by the research teams at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ) and Lund University to identify the origins of high concentrations of cloud ice in areas of high ice water content (HIWC). The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) with full spectral bin microphysics and the Lund University aerosol-cloud (AC) model with a hybrid bin / bulk microphysics scheme complementing HUCM were utilized for simulations. Both research teams had particular focus on secondary ice production (SIP) as one of the possible sources of enhanced ice concentration. The HUJ group suggested a novel concept of ice multiplication during droplet freezing. It is assumed that splintering and droplet fragmentation during droplet freezing takes place because of dendritic growth within a supercooled drop. The resulting simulations of SIP generated small ice in concentrations exceeding hundreds per liter similar to what was observed in the HIWC regions of the tropical storms. The Lund team explored the SIP mechanisms such as breakup of ice particles due to ice-ice collisions and ice sublimation that are expected to dominate the continental storms. They also quantified the impact of homogeneous nucleation of cloud droplets on the total number concentration of ice at very low temperatures near the tops of the clouds. Additionally, the Lund AC model is able to simulate the effect of aerosols of various types (including biological) on the cloud life cycle and the corresponding ice production. The HUCM / AC model was used to simulate one of the “golden” cases of the DOE MC3E campaign on 20 May 2011. The model output was converted into the fields of polarimetric radar variables using the polarimetric radar forward operator developed at the University of Oklahoma and compared with radar observations and in situ microphysical measurements onboard research aircraft. It was demonstrated that specific differential phase KDP is the best radar parameter to identify the HIWC areas and quantify the corresponding ice parameters. For the first time, the shape of the vertical profile of KDP was realistically reproduced by the cloud model with the KDP maximum in the dendritic growth layer (DGL) centered at the -15°C isotherm. The University of Oklahoma team has developed a methodology for polarimetric radar retrievals of such microphysical parameters of ice as ice water content (IWC), mean volume diameter (Dm), and total number concentration (Nt) of ice particles. These retrievals have been validated using in situ aircraft measurements during 6 field campaigns and proved to be quite robust and reliable. This allowed to build the first climatology of the vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables and retrieved microphysical parameters for the three types of weather systems: continental MCSs, maritime MCSs, and tropical cyclones / hurricanes (Hu and Ryzhkov 2022). The data were collected by a multitude of the WSR-88D radars in 13 continental and 10 maritime MCSs and 11 landfalling hurricanes. The HIWC areas were identified within the examined storms and the corresponding “HIWC statistics” was compared with the “background” one without HIWC. An overarching conclusion of the study is that maritime tropical storms (MCSs and hurricanes) are characterized by smaller size ice in higher concentration compared to the continental MCSs. High ice water content in the HIWC areas is primarily caused by a strong jump in a number concentration of ice particles rather than the increase of their size compared to the “background” environment. This may point to the homogeneous nucleation of excessive amounts of supercooled droplets and / or secondary ice production as the possible origins of HIWC. Such a climatology provides a good observational reference for the modelers to evaluate the performance of their models. As an example, the in-depth analysis of the 20 May 2011 MC3E case shows that the advanced cloud models developed in the course of this study still tend to underestimate the number concentration of ice in the HIWC areas although they succeed in reproducing realistically looking vertical profiles of IWC and Nt. The results of the project research are summarized in 13 journal papers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cassini Imaging of Saturn: Southern Hemisphere Winds and Vortices

High-resolution images of Saturn's southern hemisphere acquired by the Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem between February and October 2004 are used to create maps of cloud morphology at several wavelengths, to derive zonal winds, and to characterize the distribution, frequency, size, morphology, color, behavior, and lifetime of vortices. Nonequatorial wind measurements display only minor differences from those collected since 1981 and reveal a strong, prograde flow near the pole. The region just southward of the velocity minimum at 40.7 deg S is especially active, containing numerous vortices, some generated in the proximity of convective storms. The two eastward jets nearest the pole display periodicity in their longitudinal structure, but no direct analogs to the northern hemisphere's polar hexagon or ribbon waves were observed. Characteristics of winds and vortices are compared with those of Saturn's northern hemisphere and Jupiter's atmosphere.

Saturn↗

Impact of Assimilating Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on the Analysis of Polar Lows and Mediterranean Sea Tropical-Like Cyclone in a Global Modeling and Data Assimilation Framework

Polar lows, and mesoscale convective cyclones bearing resemblance to tropical cyclones but originating outside of the tropics, are storms that are challenging to represent accurately in global analyses and models because of their small size, rapid growth at subsynoptic scales, occurrence in data poor oceanic regions, and difficulties in objectively validating them in analysis. Building on previous positive results obtained with respect to the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a global model, a set of observing system experiments (OSEs) performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) are investigated, focusing on three case studies—a polar low in the Sea of Okhotsk, a polar low in the Southern Ocean, and a Mediterranean Sea tropical-like cyclone that occurred during the boreal fall season of 2014. Experiments assimilating adaptively thinned cloud-cleared hyperspectral infrared radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on board the NASA Aqua satellite, with higher density in the vicinity of each storm and its pre-cyclogenesis environment, and lower density elsewhere, demonstrate a positive impact on the analyzed representation of each storm. The adaptive thinning experiments improve the storm intensity and structure, including vertical alignment, depth, symmetry, strength, and compactness of warm core compared to the reference experiments. The results suggest that jet-level processes associated with extremely strong horizontal velocity gradients as represented in the model analysis can be useful to locate dynamically active regions of the extratropical atmosphere where denser data coverage is likely to improve the analyzed representation of polar lows and other similar marine mesoscale convective cyclones.

global modeling↗

Port Hope Are Initiative Port Granby Project - Water Management in Extreme Weather Conditions - 19257

The Port Granby Project is part of the Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI) through which Canadian Nuclear Laboratory (CNL) is managing long-term historic low level radioactive waste (LLRW) resulting from 60 years of uranium and radium processing operations in the urban setting of Port Hope, Ontario. Port Granby remediation scope includes 1) constructing a new, secure long-term waste management facility (LTWMF) and supporting infrastructure, and 2) excavating and relocating LLRW and marginally contaminated soil from the Port Granby Waste Management Facility (PGWMF), which accepted waste until the 1980's, to the newly constructed LTWMF. This paper provides an overview of the challenges of water management (control of storm and groundwater at the LTWMF and PGWMF) on a large-scale construction project with changing and unpredictable weather patterns. Consistent with increased observations of extreme weather events, over two consecutive construction seasons, weather changed from one of the driest on record (high temperatures, dry conditions and strong wind) to one of the wettest on record (short duration high-intensity rainfall that flooded the LTWMF, excavations and on-site PGWMF and LTWMF retention ponds). This paper describes the collaborative approach among Wood (Constructor), AECOM (Engineer of Record), and CNL to adjust to extremes in weather to control dust and excessive water during construction. The summer of 2016, one of the driest summers on record in southern Ontario, was followed by one of the wettest in 2017. In 2016, the project team used water from the uncontaminated on-site storm water ponds, applied a polymer product for dust control across the site to augment water applications, obtained a Permit to Take Water from the provincial government to pump water from Lake Ontario, procured large tanks for storage of Lake Ontario water to meet peak demand, and retained additional water trucks/operators for day to day site operations. In stark contrast, to accommodate heavy rains in 2017 the project team installed ∼6 million liter aboveground storage tanks with secondary containment for contaminated water storage; procured 100+ mobile water storage tanks to supplement the on-site storage, utilized LTWMF cells sumps, excavations and retention ponds to store and manage onsite water; and adjusted additional staff resources (more staff and longer shifts) during anticipated periods of high-intensity rainfall, at times managing water around the clock. Recognizing the need to minimize the release of contaminated soil and water from the construction site at all times, these efforts illustrate the importance of anticipating and reacting to extreme weather events on a more regular basis. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Temperature, density, and composition in the disturbed thermosphere from Esro 4 gas analyzer measurements - A global model

An analysis of density measurements of Ar, N2, O, and He made at 280 km with the gas analyzer aboard the polar-orbiting satellite Esro 4 has yielded a global model of the variations in temperature, density, and composition that occur in the disturbed thermosphere. In the model the increase of temperature over quiet conditions is a nonlinear function of the planetary geomagnetic index, its latitude profile being approximated by a fourth-power sin phi law, where phi is the 'invariant' magnetic latitude. A density wave proceeding from high latitudes is approximated by a fourth power cos phi law. A strong nonlinearity in the relation between the temperature variations and the variations in the height of the homopause explains a previously found behavioral difference in the variation of atomic oxygen during magnetic storms and during periods of sustained geomagnetic activity.

Jacchia, L. G.↗

Ultrarelativistic electron butterfly distributions created by parallel acceleration due to magnetosonic waves

The Van Allen Probe observations during the recovery phase of a large storm that occurred on 17 March 2015 showed that the ultrarelativistic electrons at the inner boundary of the outer radiation belt (L* = 2.6–3.7) exhibited butterfly pitch angle distributions, while the inner belt and the slot region also showed evidence of sub-MeV electron butterfly distributions. In this paper, strong magnetosonic waves were observed in the same regions and at the same time periods as these butterfly distributions. Moreover, when these magnetosonic waves extended to higher altitudes (L* = 4.1), the butterfly distributions also extended to the same region. Combining test particle calculations and Fokker-Planck diffusion simulations, we successfully reproduced the formation of the ultrarelativistic electron butterfly distributions, which primarily result from parallel acceleration caused by Landau resonance with magnetosonic waves. Finally, the coexistence of ultrarelativistic electron butterfly distributions with magnetosonic waves was also observed in the 24 June 2015 storm, providing further support that the magnetosonic waves play a key role in forming butterfly distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatial Structure of Precipitation and Lightning in the Vicinity of Wildfire Ignitions in the United States

The horizontal storm structure surrounding 92512 lightning ignited wildfires is examined in the mid to eastern sections of the United States from 2003-2015 using Vaisala’s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), NCEP’s Stage IV gauge corrected radar precipitation mosaic, and the US Forest Service’s Fire Occurrence Database. Though lightning flash density peaks strongly around fire ignitions on the instantaneous 1 km scale, on the hourly 10 km scale both the lightning and precipitation peaks are typically offset from fire ignitions. As expected, lightning density is higher and precipitation lower around ignition points compared to non-ignition points. The average spatial distribution of total lightning flashes around fire ignitions is symmetrical, while that of precipitation and positive flashes is not. The results of regressing positive and negative currents against ignition efficiency are ambiguous. These results can aid in modeling storms that are likely to produce the "dry lightning" associated with wildfire ignitions.

Brian Vant-Hull↗

Substorm signatures at synchronous altitude

The signatures of magnetospheric substorms near 6.6 earth radii are statistically examined using data obtained on board ATS 6 by magnetic field and energetic particle measurements. It is confirmed that the configuration change toward a tail-like field in the dusk-to-midnight sector typically begins about one hour before the onset of the expansion phase of a substorm. Configuration changes before the onsets of moderate substorms are characterized by a directional change of magnetic field at magnetic latitude of approximately 10 deg, rather than by a change in the field magnitude. It is found during storm periods that the magnetic field orientation occasionally becomes almost parallel to the magnetic equator before expansion phase onsets. Here, the field magnitude usually increases above background levels. These facts are seen as strongly suggesting that a tail-like configuration is caused by an intensification and earthward motion of the cross-tail current system, often close to 6.6 earth radii, rather than by development of diamagnetic ring current.

Kokubun, S.↗

Three-dimensional simulation of the Denver 11 July 1988 microburst-producing storm

A simulation of the July 11, 1988 thunderstorm near Denver, which produced a microburst of unusual intensity during the test operation of the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar system is carried out using the Terminal Area Simulation System also known as the NASA-Langley Windshear Model. The results show the evolution and structure of the storm, including hazard indices based on F-factor. Results of simulation show that the storm is of unusual structure, producing multiple low- to moderate-reflectivity microbursts formed downshear of the main precipitation shaft. The most intense of the microbursts contains a velocity differential exceeding 40 m/s, strong downdrafts, and hazardous windshear with F-factors approaching 0.2. A comparison with observations, including Doppler radar measurements and aircraft flight data, indicates that the model can proivide information that is not always apparent from observed data.

Proctor, F. H.↗

Simulation of the Climate of South-West Asia with a Regional Model

The ability of the regional model RegCM2 to simulate the climate of South-West Asia is examined. The climate of the region displays high spatial, seasonal and interannual variability, providing a strong test of climate model capabilities. RegCM2 captures the spatial variability of temperature and precipitation despite cold biases being present in the model. RegCM2 does not capture the annual cycle of precipitation on the Black and Caspian Sea coasts where very steep topography exists, nor on the eastern Mediterranean coast where the coastal mountains are not resolvable. RegCM2 does capture the seasonal cycle in the Fertile Crescent and Zagros mountains, where it is strongly influenced by a plateau circulation above the Iranian plateau. It is shown that accurate simulation of precipitation in these regions, including the inter-annual variability, requires the correct simulation of both storm tracks and topographic interactions. Through the use of regional climate models the concentration and transport pathways of water vapor through the Middle East can be explored. The results demonstrate that short lived 'events' have little impact on monthly mean atmospheric fields yet provide a significant amount of the precipitated water which flows in the Tigris river.

Evans, J. P.↗

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Duration and Extent of the Great Auroral Storm of 1859

The great geomagnetic storm of August 28 through September 3,1859 is, arguably, the greatest and most famous space weather event in the last two hundred years. For the first time observations showed that the sun and aurora were connected and that auroras generated strong ionospheric currents. A significant portion of the world's 200,000 km of telegraph lines were adversely affected, many of which were unusable for 8 hours or more which had a real economic impact. In addition to published scientific measurements, newspapers, ship logs, and other records of that era provide an untapped wealth of first hand observations giving time and location along with reports of the auroral forms and colors. At its height, the aurora was described as a blood or deep crimson red that was so bright that one "could read a newspaper by." At its peak, the Type A red aurora lasted for several hours and was observed to reach extremely low geomagnetic latitudes on August 28-29 (-25") and on September 2-3 (-18"). Auroral forms of all types and colors were observed below 50" latitude for -24 hours on August 28-29 and -42 hours on September 2-3. From a large database of ground-based observations the extent of the aurora in corrected geomagnetic coordinates is presented over the duration of the storm event.

Green, James L.↗

Directions of strong winds on Mars inferred

Asymmetrical crater shadings and diffuse light and dark streaks visible on the photography returned by the 1969 Mars flyby of Mariners 6 and 7 are probably eolian in origin. Wind directions inferred from mapping of these features parallel motions of observed global dust storms or relate to expected patterns of topographic funneling of winds.

Howard, A. D.↗

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inter-comparison of Wildfire and High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) data from STORM-FEST: An investigation of wildfire spectral channel discrepancies

This simultaneous collection of HIS spectral measurements aboard the ER-2 during STORM-FEST provided a means to explore calibration problems in the infrared bands of the Wildfire instrument. Large discrepancies in brightness temperatures were noted in Wildfire bands designed to sample the 'wings' of the strong ozone absorption band centered at 9.6 microns, where the atmospheric transmittance changes rapidly with wavelength. Examination of interchannel relationships in Wildfire data and subsequent comparison to Wildfire data synthesized from the HIS measurements suggests that a wavelength shift in the channel spectral response from those determined in the laboratory may have occurred. Based on comparisons from several flights, this spectral shift has been empirically determined to be about 0.15 micron. It is speculated that this problem resulted from a slight misalignment of the spectrometer grating or other optical elements, or was a result of extreme range in temperatures experienced by the instrument throughout the course of an ER-2 flight. A consequence of this temperature fluctuation may be a change in a position of the grating in the optical path and could result in the variations in channel spectral response during flight. These findings for Wildfire may have significant bearing on future use of the MAS because of the similarities to the original Wildfire configuration.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

Space Weather: From Solar Origins to Risks and Hazards Evolving in Time

Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect onhumankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originatesback to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexandervon Humboldt (Von Humboldt, Ann. Phys. 1808, 29, 425–429),first defining a“Magnetische Ungewitter”or magnetic storm from auroral observations fromhis home in Berlin, Germany. Space Weather is currently experiencing explosivegrowth, because its effects on human technologies have become more andmore diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes thatcause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and groundlevel effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on technologicalsystems and human health. The threats and risks are not hypothetical, and in theevent of extreme Space Weather events the consequences could be quitesevere for humankind. The purpose of the review is to give a brief overall view ofthe full chain of physical processes responsible for Space Weather risks andhazards, tracing them from solar origins to effects and impacts in interplanetaryspace, in the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere and at the ground. Inaddition, the paper shows that the risks associated with Space Weather have notbeen constant over time; they have evolved as our society becomes more andmore technologically advanced. The paper begins with a brief introduction tothe Carrington event, arguably the greatest geomagnetic storm in recordedhistory. Next, the descriptions of the strongest known Space Weather processesare reviewed, tracing them from their solar origins. The concepts ofgeomagnetic storms and substorms are briefly introduced. The main effects/impacts of Space Weather are also considered, including geomagneticallyinduced currents (GICs) which are thought to cause power outages. Theeffects of radiation on avionics and human health, ionospheric effects andimpacts, and thermosphere effects and satellite drag will also be discussed.Finally, we will discuss the current challenges of Space Weather forecasting andexamine some of the worst-case scenarios.

Natalia Buzulukova↗