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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty

Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intermittency and Dissipative Structures Arising from Relativistic Magnetized Turbulence

Abstract Kinetic simulations of relativistic turbulence have significantly advanced our understanding of turbulent particle acceleration. Recent progress has highlighted the need for an updated acceleration theory that can account for particle acceleration within the plasma’s coherent structures. Here, we investigate how intermittency modeling connects statistical fluctuations in turbulence to regions of high-energy dissipation. This connection is established by employing a generalized She–Leveque model to characterize the exponents ζ p for the structure functions S p ∝ l ζ p . The fitting of the scaling exponents provides us with a measure of the codimension of the dissipative structures, for which we subsequently determine the filling fraction. We perform our analysis for a range of magnetizations σ and relative fluctuation amplitudes δ B 0 / B 0 . We find that increasing values of σ and δ B 0 / B 0 allow the turbulent cascade to break sheetlike structures into smaller regions of dissipation that resemble chains of flux ropes. However, as their dissipation measure increases, the dissipative regions become less volume filling. With this work, we aim to inform future turbulent acceleration theories that incorporate particle energization from interactions with coherent structures within relativistic turbulence.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a τ lepton pair in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for dark matter particles produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying into a pair of τ leptons is performed using data collected in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector. The analysis is based on a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 collected in 2017–2018. No significant excess over the expected standard model background is observed. This result is interpreted within the frameworks of the 2HDM+a and baryonic Z′ benchmark simplified models. The 2HDM+a model is a type-II two-Higgs-doublet model featuring a heavy pseudoscalar with an additional light pseudoscalar. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the product of the production cross section and the branching fraction for each of these two simplified models. Heavy pseudoscalar boson masses between 400 and 700 GeV are excluded for a light pseudoscalar mass of 100 GeV. For the baryonic Z′ model, a statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data set of 36 fb −1 collected in 2016. In this model, Z′ boson masses up to 1050 GeV are excluded for a dark matter particle mass of 1 GeV.

Dark Matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

AIMSim : An accessible cheminformatics platform for similarity operations on chemicals datasets

The recent advances in deep learning, generative modeling, and statistical learning have ushered in a renewed interest in traditional cheminformatics tools and methods. Quantifying molecular similarity is essential in molecular generative modeling, exploratory molecular synthesis campaigns, and drug-discovery applications to assess how new molecules differ from existing ones. Further, most tools target advanced users and lack general implementations accessible to the larger community. In this work, we introduce Artificial Intelligence Molecular Similarity (AIMSim), an accessible cheminformatics platform for performing similarity operations on collections of molecules called molecular datasets. AIMSim provides a unified platform to perform similarity-based tasks on molecular datasets, such as diversity quantification, outlier and novelty analysis, clustering, dimensionality reduction, and inter-molecular comparisons. AIMSim implements all major binary similarity metrics and molecular fingerprints and is provided as a Python package that includes support for command-line use as well as a Graphical User Interface for code-free utilization with fully interactive plots.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microstructure modeling of nuclear structural materials: Recent progress and future directions

Modeling and simulation of microstructures are essential to understand the complex responses and behaviors of nuclear materials in extreme environments. The needs to assess the extended life operation as well as the growing interest in accelerating nuclear materials development and qualification have stimulated the use of high-fidelity multiscale models aided by empirical and ab initio data. This paper reviews the role of various models across different length and time scales in investigating irradiation effects on microstructure evolution and degradation, in particular the embrittlement caused by radiation induced or enhanced formation of nanoscale chemical heterogeneities. The strength and limitations of these models, including classical rate theories, cluster dynamics, phase-field methods, and atomistic models informed by ab initio energies, are discussed with seminal examples. Challenges regarding the lack of thermo-kinetic data and theoretical treatments considering chemical complexities and magnetic excitations, as well as the stabilizing effect by excess point defects in nuclear structural materials are presented, along with potential solutions based on ab initio informed surrogate energy models and statistical sampling by Monte Carlo simulations. Further, the review then highlights the opportunities to leverage the advantages of different methods by establishing hybrid models by shared variables or coupled codes and applications. Finally, the review concludes with forward-looking remarks on how the use of physics-based models can aid the improvement of machine-learning models of property degradation and vice versa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Viral Dynamic Models During COVID‐19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

zPerf: A Statistical Gray-Box Approach to Performance Modeling and Extrapolation for Scientific Lossy Compression

With the scaling up of simulation-based scientific discovery on high-performance computing systems, the disparity between compute and I/O has increased, forcing domain scientists to save only a small amount of simulation data to persistent storage. This can result in the loss of essential physics fields that are needed for data analysis. While error-bounded lossy compression has made tremendous progress in bridging the gap between compute and I/O, the lack of understanding of compression performance remains a key hurdle to its wide adoption. Here, in this work, we present zPerf, a statistical gray-box performance modeling approach for scientific lossy compression. Our contributions are threefold: 1) We develop zPerf to estimate the performance of lossy compression techniques, based on in-depth understanding and statistical modeling for data features and core compression metrics; 2) We demonstrate the in-detailed implementation of zPerf using two case studies, where we derive the performance modeling for SZ and ZFP, two leading lossy compressors; 3) We evaluate the effectiveness of zPerf on real-world datasets across various domains. Based on the evaluation, we demonstrate the efficacy of the zPerf performance model; 4) We further discuss three case studies where zPerf is applied to extrapolate the compression ratio of SZ and ZFP with alternative encoding schemes as well as ZFP with an alternative transform scheme. Through the case studies, we demonstrate the potential of zPerf for exploring the design space of lossy compression, which has hardly been studied in the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of neutron production in atmospheric neutrino interactions at Super-Kamiokande

We present measurements of total neutron production from atmospheric neutrino interactions in water, analyzed as a function of electron-equivalent visible energy over a range of 30 MeV to 10 GeV. These results are based on 4,270 days of data collected by Super-Kamiokande, including 564 days with 0.011 wt% gadolinium added to enhance neutron detection. Neutron signal selection is based on a neural network trained on simulation, with its performance validated using an Am/Be neutron point source. The measurements are compared to predictions from neutrino event generators combined with various hadron-nucleus interaction models, which include an intranuclear cascade model and a nuclear deexcitation model. We observe significant variations in the predictions depending on the choice of hadron-nucleus interaction model. We discuss key factors that contribute to describing our data, such as in-medium effects in the intranuclear cascade and the accuracy of statistical evaporation modeling.

Cherenkov detectors↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric condition identification in multivariate data through a metric for total variation

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariable atmospheric data set is a necessary step in the validation of emerging and existing high-fidelity models used to simulate wind plant flows and operation.Atmospheric conditions relevant for wind energy research include stationary conditions, given the need for well-converged statistics for model validation, as well as conditions observed less frequently, such as extreme atmospheric events, which are used in wind turbine and wind plant design.Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of atmospheric conditions.Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation set the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operational strategies.The current work explores a single metric for variation in a multivariate data sample that quantifies variability within each channel as well as covariance between channels.The total variation is used to identify conditions of interest that conform to desired objective functions, such as stationary conditions, ramps or waves of wind speed, and changes in wind direction.Total variation is somewhat sensitive to the presence of outliers in the input data, and the method is best complemented by quality-control procedures to ensure reliable results.The direct detection and classification of events or conditions of interest within atmospheric data sets is vital to developing our understanding of wind plant response and to the formulation of forecasting and control models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed machine learning assisted uncertainty quantification for the corrosion of dissimilar material joints

Jointing techniques like the Self-Piercing Riveting (SPR), Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) and Rivet-Weld (RW) joints are used for mass production of dissimilar material joints due to their high performance, short cycle time, and adaptability. However, the service life and safety usage of these joints can be largely impacted by the galvanic corrosion due to the difference in equilibrium potentials between the metals with the presence of electrolyte. Here, in this paper, we focus on Al-Fe galvanic corrosion and develop physics-informed machine learning based surrogate model for statistical corrosion analysis, which enables the reliability analysis of dissimilar material joints under corrosion environment. In this study, a physics-based finite element (FE) corrosion model has been developed to simulate the galvanic corrosion between a Fe cathode and an Al anode. Geometric and environmental factors including crevice gap, roughness of anode, conductivity, and the temperature of the electrolyte are investigated. Further, a thorough Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) analysis is conducted for the overall corrosion behavior of the Fe-Al joints. It is found that the electrolyte conductivity has the largest effects on the material loss and needs to be managed closely for better corrosion control. This will help in designing and manufacturing joints with improved corrosion performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

MIDAS: Modeling Individual Differences using Advanced Statistics

This research explores novel methods for extracting relevant information from EEG data to characterize individual differences in cognitive processing. Our approach combines expertise in machine learning, statistics, and cognitive science, advancing the state-of-the art in all three domains. Specifically, by using cognitive science expertise to interpret results and inform algorithm development, we have developed a generalizable and interpretable machine learning method that can accurately predict individual differences in cognition. The output of the machine learning method revealed surprising features of the EEG data that, when interpreted by the cognitive science experts, provided novel insights to the underlying cognitive task. Additionally, the outputs of the statistical methods show promise as a principled approach to quickly find regions within the EEG data where individual differences lie, thereby supporting cognitive science analysis and informing machine learning models. This work lays methodological ground work for applying the large body of cognitive science literature on individual differences to high consequence mission applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

The End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock project uses New ResStock and ComStock models to statistically represent the energy use of U.S. buildings. The project's hybrid approach combines best-available ground truth data, such as submetering studies and statistical disaggregation of whole-building interval meter data, with the reach, cost-effectiveness, and granularity of physics-based and data-driven building stock modeling to deliver a nationally-comprehensive data set at a fraction of the historical cost.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topical Report on Water Balance Model Development and Initial Application

This topical report summarizes results from developing a generic dynamic water balance tool which can be used by coal-fired power plant operators to evaluate FGD water management strategies. EPRI is using a statistical software model created on the GoldSim platform and data from coal-fired energy plants to determine the fraction of power plant water needs that can be satisfied by electrodialysis reversal treatment and, correspondingly, the discharge volume and/or byproducts that still need to be managed. The generic model is designed to accept a number of easily obtainable process variables and generate probabilities of resultant water characteristics. The model is also constructed as a universal process flow; one that can be adjusted to accommodate most major components of an FGD blowdown handling system. The generic model is dynamic and utilizes user-inputted operational variation in water quality and quantity to best provide a probabilistic representation of potential performance outcomes. In order to account for complexities of water composition and treatment, a separate chemical modeling software is used to evaluate water chemistry and unit operation performance. The thermodynamic modeling software, OLI Studio, is employed to convert ion data from laboratory analyses into balanced molecular concentrations that are classified as dissolved and suspended solids. The dynamic water model is designed to import a total of 11 species commonly found in FGD blowdown water as molecular concentrations.Water management unit operations are used in the model and categorized by either physical unit operation blocks or chemical unit operations blocks. As the name implies, the physical water treatment blocks are unit operations that are exclusively physical changes to the system (e.g., separations and volume changes). The chemical water treatment blocks are unit operations where chemical changes occur and require the use of OLI Studio to characterize subsequent streams. Water and material balances from three unique coal-fired power plants were obtained and preliminary modeling on the dynamic water balance tool was performed using the extracted data from these power plants. These three power plants were chosen due to their unique configurations and water profiles that represented a variety of operational changes. Results from using the dynamic tool with the three plant configurations are presented and discussed in the context of the existing tool and planned future capabilities.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the production of (anti)nuclei in p–Pb collisions at s NN = 8.16 TeV

Measurements of (anti)proton, (anti)deuteron, and (anti)3He production in the rapidity range -1< y < 0 as a function of the transverse momentum and event multiplicity in p–Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon pair $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$ = 8.16 TeV are presented. The coalescence parameters B 2 and B 3 , measured as a function of the transverse momentum per nucleon and of the mean charged-particle multiplicity density, confirm a smooth evolution from low to high multiplicity across different collision systems and energies. The ratios between (anti)deuteron and (anti) 3 He yields and those of (anti)protons are also reported as a function of the mean charged-particle multiplicity density. A comparison with the predictions of the statistical hadronization and coalescence models for different collision systems and center-of-mass energies favors the coalescence description for the deuteron-to-proton yield ratio with respect to the canonical statistical model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗