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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Proof-of-Concept for Sensor Modeling in MOOSE for the Design of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Control

Autonomous operation is essential for the deployment of microreactors and fission batteries, both in terrestrial and space applications. However, prototypes of microreactors and fission batteries do not exist yet, and even the design space has not been narrowed down conclusively, making the instrumentation and control system design difficult. For this reason, there is a need for flexible computational capabilities to create a numerical stand-in of potential microreactor and fission battery designs. The latter can be used to design and test control strategies to support autonomous operations. In this paper, we describe the initial implementation of a pluggable sensor system for the easy implementation of realistic sensor models in the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE) framework. This new capability will enable MOOSE users to create a numerical stand-in of microreactors and fission batteries, ultimately allowing them to easily test new control algorithms, and instrumentation strategies for advanced systems in the design phase

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for an NPP Colocated with a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proof-of-Concept for Sensor Modeling in MOOSE for the Design of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Control

Autonomous operation is essential for the deployment of microreactors and fission batteries, both in terrestrial and space applications. For this reason, recent studies have investigated autonomous control by using adaptive model predictive control and multi-objective optimization for heat pipe–cooled microreactors under normal and heat pipe failure conditions. However, prototypes of microreactors and fission batteries do not exist yet, and even the design space has not been narrowed down conclusively, making the instrumentation and control system design difficult. For this reason, there is a need for flexible computational capabilities to create a numerical stand-in of potential microreactor and fission battery designs. The latter can be used to design and test control strategies to support autonomous operations. In this poster, we describe the initial implementation of a pluggable sensor system for the easy implementation of realistic sensor models in the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE) framework. This new capability will enable MOOSE users to create a numerical stand-in of microreactors and fission batteries, ultimately allowing them to easily test new control algorithms, and instrumentation strategies for advanced systems in the design phase.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SELF-HEALING PNEUMATIC ACTUATOR DIAPHRAGMS

In the oil and gas industry, damaged diaphragms in pneumatic actuators can lead to unintended methane leaks, increasing emissions. In this work, replacement self-healing diaphragms are manufactured for a commercial pneumatic actuator. To enable self-healing, hollow microvascular networks are created within the diaphragms using sacrificial 3D printed PLA w/ tin(II) oxalate. These microvascular networks are filled with healing chemistries and, upon damage, rupture. After rupturing, the healing chemistries mix and cure to “heal” the damage and reduce leaks. Separate actuator test stands using nitrogen gas and using natural gas were developed to assess the healing performance of diaphragms. A fatigue stand was also developed to evaluate the effects of the different microvascular network geometries on the fatigue life of diaphragms. Our results demonstrate self-healing in diaphragms subjected to damage and tested for leaks. In fatigue testing, our results indicate that the introduction of microvascular networks does not influence the fatigue life.

Self-healing, pneumatic actuator↗
DOE OSTI2022

ELASTOMERIC MICROVASCULAR SELF-HEALING MATERIALS

Damaged elastomeric diaphragms within pneumatic controllers used in the oil and gas industry lead to an unintended release of methane. Self-healing microvascular materials capable of healing various types of damage have been fabricated. These microvascular materials are designed to replace currently available commercial diaphragms found in pneumatic controllers and provide a solution to reduce unintended methane leaks. Poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) was used as the main matrix material, with additional testing conducted on polyurethane and flexibilised epoxy materials. Microvascular networks were implemented into the elastomeric membranes to act as ves- sels to deliver healing agents to the damaged areas. The complex, interdigitated channel networks were created using a 3D printed custom compounded filament composed of polylactic acid (PLA) and tin(II) oxalate. Two-part liquid casting polymers were poured around the channels into a mould to create samples with the scaffolding of the microvascular channels intact. Hollow microvascular networks were created by placing the samples within a vacuum oven at 250◦C which causes the thermal depolymerisation of PLA into its gaseous monomers. The manufactured materials were placed in test stands and pressurized using nitrogen gas to determine their healing and mechanical behaviour. Self-healing behaviour was demonstrated using PDMS matrix materials and healing chemistries within a pressure test cell. This test cell was designed to detect any damage to a sample by record- ing an outlet pressure. Damages including puncture holes, diagonal cuts and star-shaped central iv cuts were applied to the samples and a reduction in the outlet pressure was recorded for all sam- ples. A variation in channel spacing and diameter was studied to determine the optimal design of the microvascular network for self-healing performance. The mechanical performance of elastomeric membrane materials within a diaphragmatic pressurised stand was observed. Deformations and strains around the channels and channel inter- sections at the midplane of the materials were recorded using digital image correlation. Normal stresses were calculated using Hooke’s law and the material properties of the PDMS matrix. A reduction in leak rate, implying the success of self-healing, was recorded within manu- factured diaphragm samples tested within a commercial valve. PDMS is the favourable material when compared to polyurethane and flexibilised epoxy for creating

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Orbital contributions in the element-resolved valence electronic structure of Bi 2 Se 3

In this work, we studied the bulk band structure of a topological insulator (TI) Bi 2 Se 3 and determined the contributions of the Bi and Se orbital states to the valence bands using standing-wave excited hard x-ray photoemission spectroscopy (SW-HAXPES). This SW technique can provide the element-resolved information and extract individual Bi and Se contributions to the Bi2Se3 valence band. Comparisons with density-functional theory calculations (local density approximation and GW) reveal that the Bi 6s, Bi 6p, and Se 4p states are dominant in the Bi 2 Se 3 HAXPES valence band. Furthermore, these findings pave a way for studying the element-resolved band structure and orbital contributions of this class of TIs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-dimensional electron systems in perovskite oxide heterostructures: Role of the polarity-induced substitutional defects

The discovery of a two-dimensional electron system (2DES) at the interfaces of perovskite oxides such as LaAlO 3 and SrTiO 3 has motivated enormous efforts in engineering interfacial functionalities with this type of oxide heterostructures. However, the fundamental origins of the 2DES are still not understood, e.g., the microscopic mechanisms of coexisting interface conductivity and magnetism. In this paper, we report a comprehensive spectroscopic investigation on the depth profile of 2DES-relevant Ti 3d interface carriers using depth- and element-specific techniques like standing-wave excited photoemission and resonant inelastic scattering. We found that one type of Ti 3d interface carriers, which give rise to the 2DES are located within three unit cells from the n-type interface in the SrTiO 3 layer. Unexpectedly, another type of interface carriers, which are polarity-induced Ti-on-Al antisite defects, reside in the first three unit cells of the opposing LaAlO3 layer (~10 Å). Our findings provide a microscopic picture of how the localized and mobile Ti 3d interface carriers distribute across the interface and suggest that the 2DES and 2D magnetism at the LaAlO 3 /SrTiO 3 interface have disparate explanations as originating from different types of interface carriers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water-assisted mechanical testing of polymeric thin-films

Thin films with a nanometer-scale thickness are of great interest to both scientific and industrial communities due to their numerous applications and unique behaviors different from the bulk. However, the understanding of thin-film mechanics is still greatly hampered due to their intrinsic fragility and the lack of commercially available experimental instruments. In this review, we first discuss the progression of thin-film mechanical testing methods based on the supporting substrate: film-on-solid substrate method, film-on-water tensile tests, and water-assisted free-standing tensile tests. By comparing past studies on a model polymer, polystyrene, the effect of different substrates and confinement effect on the thin-film mechanics is evaluated. These techniques have generated fruitful scientific knowledge in the field of organic semiconductors for the understanding of structure–mechanical property relationships. Here, we end this review by providing our perspective for their bright prospects in much broader applications and materials of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reliability of emergency and standby diesel generators: Impact on energy resiliency solutions

Emergency diesel generators are the most common form of backup power for critical loads when the grid fails and are most often deployed as stand-alone generators (<2000 kW) tied to individual buildings for hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, and commercial facilities. Understanding the finite reliability of emergency diesel generators during continuous operation is critical for energy planners, managers, and end-users. A new analysis of two large non-public emergency diesel generator operational data sets shows that commonly used reliability metrics are inadequate to predict the performance during a grid outage. Additional metrics addressing the likelihood of an emergency diesel generator to be available at the time an outage starts, successfully start and carry load, and constantly run for the duration of the outage are needed to predict the continuous run-time reliability of emergency diesel generators during a grid outage. This is the first analysis of the reliability of modern generators that follow standard maintenance protocols commonly used for backup power and these new metrics are shown to be dependent on the level of emergency diesel generator maintenance with values that can vary by more than an order of magnitude. Even using the new metrics for well-maintained emergency diesel generators, the analysis shows that the single emergency diesel generators configurations are only 80% likely to provide power for the duration of a two-week grid outage.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anisotropic topological surface states in thin-film monoclinic Ag 2 Se

Silver chalcogenide systems have recently attracted significant attention due to their promising topological insulating properties. Here we conducted systematic low-temperature local scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy and first-principles studies on the surface states of monoclinic Ag 2 Se thin films grown using molecular beam epitaxy. Through the use of quasi-particle interference patterns, we have observed evidence for topological surface states on the selenium-terminated surfaces with different types of defect densities. The results of ab initio calculations confirm the existence of nontrivial topological surface states in the monoclinic Ag 2 Se structure, for which such properties have not been previously reported. The energy dispersion determined using voltage-dependent standing wave patterns suggests that these topological states have an anisotropic Dirac cone structure. In conclusion, this discovery may lead to new applications for monoclinic Ag 2 Se in the rapidly growing fields of nanoelectronics and spintronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atomic-Scale Interface for Pt Nanoparticles on SrTiO 3 (001)

The interfacial structure formed by Pt nanoparticles grown epitaxially on a SrTiO 3 (001) surface by pulsed laser deposition was studied by X-ray standing-wave (XSW) excited core-level photoelectron emission. The XSW-generated 3D atomic map of the Pt and interfacial oxygens for the oxidized Pt/SrTiO 3 interface differs significantly from that of the as-deposited interface. After oxidation, the Pt atoms shifted upward and their atomic occupation at fcc-like sites evolved as the oxidation temperature increased. Interfacial oxygen atoms were differentiated from bulk O atoms by the chemical shift in the binding energy of their 1s electrons. After oxidation, the interfacial oxygen atoms rearranged to form a TiO 2 bilayer at the interface. Furthermore, these results provide a more complete description of the strong metal–support interaction process at the interface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemistry and Interfacial Structure Promoting Quasi-van der Waals Epitaxial Growth of WS 2 Nanosheets on Sapphire for Prospective Application in Field-Effect Transistors

How do chemical and structural modifications to the supporting crystal surface affect the subsequent van der Waals (vdW) or quasi(Q)-vdW epitaxial growth of 2D nanocrystals? Developing an atomic-scale picture of such an interfacial system is crucial for understanding its impact on the physical and chemical properties of the supported 2D materials. The elucidation of the interfacial structure and chemistry needed to promote the Q-vdW epitaxial growth of 2D tungsten disulfide (WS 2 ) nanocrystals contributes to the growth mechanism understanding, thus pushing forward the integration of such atomically thin semiconductors toward real field-effect transistor applications. In addition to an atomic-force microscopy top view, we showcase a combination of X-ray techniques for a top-to-bottom investigation of the complexities of the buried interface structures. Furthermore, this approach uses X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, X-ray standing wave excited X-ray fluorescence, and crystal truncation rod scattering to produce a highly resolved chemical-state-specific 3D atomic map for the extended interface structure of WS 2 /α-Al 2 O 3 (001). Employing these detailed analysis methods, along with density functional theory to further refine the picoscale structure, we demonstrate how two different types of interface engineering during the pregrowth stage lead to significant differences in the chemical and structural modifications to the terminal surface of c-face sapphire, which in turn leads to substantial differences in the submonolayer growth of supported WS 2 2D nanocrystals in terms of lateral domain sizes, epitaxial registry, vdW gaps, and stability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental system for studying temperature gradient-driven fracture of oxide nuclear fuel out of reactor

Temperature gradients in ceramic light water reactor (LWR) uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel pellets generate thermal stresses that cause fractures in the fuel beginning early in the life of fresh fuel. The combination of heating due to fission and forced convective cooling on the exterior of LWR fuel rods generates a temperature profile that is difficult to replicate outside the reactor environment. In the present study, a state-of-the-art experimental set-up using electrical heating to replicate fission heating was built and surrogate fuel materials such as ceria (CeO 2 ) were used to validate the system. Cracking experiments were conducted on these surrogates by inducing reactivity-initiated-accident (RIA) like temperature gradients in the pellets via induction and direct resistance heating. Induction heating was done using copper coils and molybdenum susceptors which heated the surrogates to a threshold temperature that is sufficiently high for the fuel material to conduct current. Thereafter, direct resistance heating was used by a D.C. power supply to introduce volumetric heating to replicate LWR operating conditions analogous to fission heating. The pellets were held against nickel electrodes and mounted on a boron nitride test-stand. All the tests were carried out in a stainless-steel vacuum chamber. Simultaneous real-time dual imaging of the surrogate pellet surface has been implemented using an optical and infrared camera system which will be mounted along axial and perpendicular directions to the pellet surface respectively. A beam-splitter was used to split the incoming radiation from the sample into two halves. While one of the beams is transmitted from the splitter through a bandpass filter to obtain optical images, the other beam is reflected from the splitter to the thermal camera to capture full field temperature gradients of the as fabricated pellet surface during crack initiation and propagation. In the current series of tests, a 2-color pyrometer was used for recording and comparing the surface and centerline temperatures of the surrogate pellets in lieu of the thermal camera. A LabVIEW data acquisition system has been set up for collecting useful data during experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

X-ray atomic mapping of quantum dots

We report a model-independent atomic-mapping technique for quantum dots (QDs) by combining Bragg reflection x-ray standing wave (XSW) and grazing incidence diffraction (GID) measurements. In this study, we choose GaAs capped InGaAs QDs/GaAs(001) as a model system to show the locations and arrangements of indium atoms within the QDs along various [hkl] directions. This technique directly reveals the actual amount of positional anisotropy and ordering fraction of indium atoms within the QDs by probing the (1¯11), (111), (311), (1¯31), (113), and (1¯13) crystallographic planes. We find that indium atoms are outwardly shifted along the [001] direction by small fractions of the lattice constant, 0.04a GaAs and 0.06a GaAs from Ga sites for 50- and 150-Å GaAs capped InGaAs QDs, respectively. We observe that an improved coherency factor of the indium atoms within the QDs by 45–60% along the [001] and [011] directions reduces the photoluminescence linewidth by 22%, thus making the QDs efficient for QD-laser and optoelectronic device applications. Here, we also find that the position and ordering of In atoms along the (113) and (1¯13) planes are most sensitive to the thickness of the GaAs cap layer. Our XSW-based results are supported by numerical calculations using a QD-macroscopic structural model based on our GID study. We thus show that this atomic-mapping technique will be useful for studying various quantum structures and tuning their properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Quench Detection and Monitoring System for Superconducting Magnets at Fermilab

A quench detection system was developed for protecting and monitoring the superconducting solenoids for the Muon-to-Electron Conversion Experiment (Mu2e) at Fermilab. The quench system was designed for a high level of dependability and long-term continuous operation. It is based on three tiers: Tier-I, FPGA-based Digital Quench Detection (DQD); Tier-II, Analog Quench Detection (AQD); and Tier-3, the quench controls and data management system. The Tier-I and Tier-II are completely independent and fully redundant systems. The Tier-3 system is based on National Instruments (NI) C-RIO and provides the user interface for quench controls and data management. It is independent from Tiers I & II. The DQD provides both quench detection and quench characterization (monitoring) capability. Both DQD and AQD have built-in high voltage isolation and user programmable gains and attenuations. The DQD and AQD also includes user configured current dependent thresholding and validation times. A 1 st article of the three-tier system was fully implemented on the new Fermilab magnet test stand for the HL-LHC Accelerator Up-grade Project (AUP). It successfully provided quench protection and monitoring (QPM) for a cold superconducting bus test in November 2020. The Mu2e quench detection design has since been implemented for production testing of the AUP magnets. A detailed description of the system along with results from the AUP superconducting bus test will be presented.

monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing a Magnetic Measurement Data Acquisition and Control System With Reuse in Mind: A Rotating Coil System Example

Accelerator magnet test facilities frequently need to measure different magnets on differently equipped test stands and with different instrumentation. Designing a modular and highly reusable system that combines flexibility built-in at the architectural level as well as on the component level addresses this need. Specification of the backbone of the system, with the interfaces and dataflow for software components and core hardware modules, serves as a basis for building such a system. The design process and implementation of an extensible magnetic measurement data acquisition and control system are described, including techniques for maximizing the reuse of software. The discussion is supported by showing the application of this methodology to constructing two dissimilar systems for rotating coil measurements, both based on the same architecture and sharing core hardware modules and many software components. The first system is for production testing 10 m long cryo-assemblies containing two MQXFA quadrupole magnets for the high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider and the second for testing IQC conventional quadrupole magnets in support of the accelerator system at Fermilab.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Lubricating Bushing Testing for John Day Dam Ka plan Turbine Replacement

The goal of this testing program is to find suitable self-lubricated alternatives to replace the in use oil lubricated grooved-bronze bushing in Kaplan runner hubs that are currently being utilized at John Day Dam operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). Scaled bushing testing utilizing a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory designed, fabricated, and operated Bushing Test Stand under the direction and funding from USACE determined that self-lubricated bushings tested appear capable of outperforming the current oil-lubricated bronze bushings. Performance tests are focused on durability which includes cyclic load bearing properties and articulations under various loading scenarios. This testing was performed at nominally 1/5 th scale. A scaling sensitivity analysis determined that scaled testing results apply to prototypic size. This report shows the direct comparison between the current baseline bronze bushing to self-lubricated bushings from various manufacturers. Bushing data like coefficient of friction and bushing material loss (associated with bushing wear) was determined. Self-lubricated bushings tested include products manufactured specifically for hydropower applications by the following companies: Trelleborg, Kamatics, Anonymous, and Tenneco/Deva.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures included Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗