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Evidence for some connection between weather and solar related phenomena is presented. Historical data of world wide temperature variations with relationship to change in solar luminosity are examined. Several test methods for estimating the statistical significance of such phenomena are discussed in detail.
The degree of association between total and stratospheric ozone and solar ultraviolet irradiance is evaluated based on mean monthly latitudinally averaged ozone observations from the Nimbus-4 BUV data set. The mean monthly 10.7 cm solar flux f(10.7), adjusted for varying earth-sun distance, is used as a convenient index of solar UV variation. Results show no obvious relationship between total ozone and solar ultraviolet irradiance based on analysis of satellite data over a period of seven years, even though such a relationship has been suggested from theoretical considerations. However, the analysis does indicate that there may be a positive response in the upper tropical stratosphere, at a height of about 45-50 km such that there is an increase in the ozone concentration following an increase in solar UV radiation, which is assumed to be indicated by an increase in f(10.7) flux
The research deals mainly with Very Large Array and Solar Maximum Mission observations of the ubiquitous coronal loops that dominate the structure of the low corona. As illustrated, the observations of thermal cyclotron lines at microwave wavelengths provide a powerful new method of accurately specifying the coronal magnetic field strength. Processes are delineated that trigger solar eruptions from coronal loops, including preburst heating and the magnetic interaction of coronal loops. Evidence for coherent burst mechanisms is provided for both the Sun and nearby stars, while other observations suggest the presence of currents that may amplify the coronal magnetic field to unexpectedly high levels. The existence is reported of a new class of compact, variable moving sources in regions of apparently weak photospheric field.
It is tempting to speculate on the possibility that solar flares sometimes are the initial cause of and atmospheric disturbance, which cumulative effect may give rise to a correlation at the 11 year timescale. Reasons to reconsider the possible relevance of solar flare response studies are stated. The discovery of the apparently decisive role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO) in establishing the atmospheric response pattern to solar forcing may throw new light on some of the earlier published relations. Reanalysis of old data in some cases may be advisable. Data on solar flares and their effects on the earth's atmosphere might be a promising candidate for reexamination.
Since STS-26, three large solar events have occurred during Shuttle missions: a geomagnetic storm during STS-29 and solar particle events (SPEs) during STS-28 and -34. The maximum dose to a crew attributed to an SPE was estimated to be 30 micro-Gy. Time-resolved dosimetry measurements of the SPE dose during STS-28 were made using the USAF Radiation Monitoring Equipment. Comparison of calculated and measured dose demonstrated a discrepancy, possibly a result of deficiencies in the geomagnetic cutoff model used. This experience demonstrates that dose from an SPE is strongly dependent on numerous factors such as orbit inclination, SPE start time, spectral parameters and geomagnetic field conditions; the exact combination of these factors is fortuitous. New sources of data and procedures are being investigated, including real-time tracking of auroral oval positions or determination of particle cutoff latitudes, for incorporation into operational Shuttle radiation support practices.
We report on the status of solar cycle 24 based on polar prominence eruptions (PEs) and microwave brightness enhancement (MBE) information obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph. The north polar region of the Sun had near-zero field strength for more than three years (2012-2015) and ended only in September 2015 as indicated by the presence of polar PEs and the lack of MBE. The zero-polar-field condition in the south started only around 2013, but it ended by June 2014. Thus the asymmetry in the times of polarity reversal switched between cycle 23 and 24. The polar MBE is a good proxy for the polar magnetic field strength as indicated by the high degree of correlation between the two. The cross-correlation between the high- and low-latitude MBEs is significant for a lag of approximately 5.5 to 7.3 years, suggesting that the polar field of one cycle indicates the sunspot number of the next cycle in agreement with the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of solar cycles. The extended period of near-zero field in the north-polar region should result in a weak and delayed sunspot activity in the northern hemisphere in cycle 25.
Radio spectrum of active region near east limb of Sun determined from July 20, 1963 eclipse
The recent availability of new data sets during the recent extreme solar minimum provides an opportunity for testing the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere in historically under-sampled regions. This study will present averages and variability of topside ionospheric densities over Africa as a function of season, local time, altitude, and magnetic dip latitude as measured by the Coupled Ion-Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) Mission of Opportunity on the C/NOFS satellite. The results will be compared to the three topside model options available in IRI-2007. Overall, the NeQuick model is found to have the best performance, though during the deepest part of the solar minimum all three options significantly overestimate density.
The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.
The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.
Photospheric vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory are utilized as the boundary conditions to extrapolate both nonlinear force-free and potential magnetic fields in solar corona. Based on the extrapolations, we are able to determine the free magnetic energy (FME) stored in active regions (ARs). Over 3000 vector magnetograms in 61 ARs were analyzed. We compare FME with the ARs' flare index (FI) and find that there is a weak correlation (<60%) between FME and FI. FME shows slightly improved flare predictability relative to the total unsigned magnetic flux of ARs in the following two aspects: (1) the flare productivity predicted by FME is higher than that predicted by magnetic flux and (2) the correlation between FI and FME is higher than that between FI and magnetic flux. However, this improvement is not significant enough to make a substantial difference in time-accumulated FI, rather than individual flare, predictions.
It is shown that any temperature variation along the axis of symmetry of an azimuthal field causes continual convective activity. There is no static equilibrium configuration except in very special, and hence improbable, cases. It is suggested that this dynamic effect contributes to the activity associated with the flux tubes extending through the solar photosphere. The X-ray bright spots, evidently caused by the emergence and expansion of small bipolar regions, may be produced in part by the convective effect of an azimuthal field.
The existence and constant activity of the Sun's outer atmosphere are thought to be due to the continual emergence of magnetic fields from the Solar interior and the stressing of these fields at or near the surface layers of the Sun. The structure and activity of the corona are thus symptomatic of the underlying magnetic dynamo and the existence of an outer turbulent convective zone on the Sun. A sufficient condition for the existence of coronal activity on other stars would be the existence of a magnetic dynamo and an outer convective zone. The theoretical relationship between magnetic fields and coronal activity can be tested by Solar observations, for which the individual loop structures can be resolved. A number of parameters however, which enter into the alternative theoretical formulations remain fixed in all Solar observations. To determine whether these are truly parameters of the theory observations need to be extended to nearby stars on which suitable conditions may occur.
Correlation of large ionization bursts in cosmic ray intensity observations with solar cycle
Solar proton flux origin and propagation in corona and interplanetary magnetic field regions from Pioneer satellites data
Cosmic ray intensity during solar cycles, considering minima relationship to Bartel index maxima and solar wind modulation theory
VLA-RATAN-600 observations of the sun around the partial solar eclipse in July 1990 are discussed. The relatively flat spectrum of the extended emission is attributed to the optically thin thermal bremsstrahlung of electrons trapped in a magnetic loop at coronal temperatures. Step-spectrum sunspot-associated emission is attributed to thermal gyroresonance radiation at different heights along the leg of a loop joining regions of positive magnetic polarity. Comparisons with predicted distributions of gyroresonance radio indicate that compact sunspot-associated sources lie at heights of 2500-17,500 km above the photosphere. Differences in the observed and predicted microwave emission suggest an inhomogeneous distribution of thermal plasma in the corona above the sunspot or the presence of localized flux tubes containing higher density plasma or nonpotential fields.
Using vector magnetic field data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we study magnetic helicity injection into the corona in emerging active regions (ARs) and examine the hemispheric helicity rule. In every region studied, photospheric shearing motion contributes most of the helicity accumulated in the corona. In a sample of 28 emerging ARs, 17 follow the hemisphere rule (61% ± 18% at a 95% confidence interval). Magnetic helicity and twist in 25 ARs (89% ± 11%) have the same sign. The maximum magnetic twist, which depends on the size of an AR, is inferred in a sample of 23 emerging ARs with a bipolar magnetic field configuration.