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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Long-Short Term Memory Models to Predict Solar Active Regions Emergence

We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Solar Activity Data Portal for Studying 3D Dynamics and Activity of the Sun

The main problems with understanding and predicting solar activity are tightly linked to limitations in describing the global evolution of the Sun from the deep interior to the corona. Because of the complexity of interactions in a wide range of dynamical, turbulent, and spatial scales and dramatic changes in thermodynamic and magnetic field conditions, only physics-based models can provide essential background to generate reliable solar activity forecasts. However, performing accurate model calibration and estimating uncertainties is often challenging due to the unavailability of a long time series of observations. To mitigate these limitations, we have developed the Global Solar Activity (GSA) Data Portal, which enables convenient access to a variety of modern and historical data. The portal supports a dynamic visualization for 1D time series (such as the sunspot number and solar irradiance) and quick-look visualization for 2D datasets (e.g., synoptic magnetograms, the solar internal rotation, and flows). The GSA portal includes a search engine that enables data retrieval from user-specified data sources and time intervals. In this presentation, we will discuss the current and upcoming capabilities of the data portal and its potential applications for space weather studies.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Solar Flare and Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP 3 )

Solar activity is a primary factor determining the state of the Earth’s space environment, geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances, and radiation hazards. In the current state of knowledge, machine learning (ML) methods provide essential tools for processing data, investigating relationships among various physical properties and characteristics, uncovering hidden connections, and predicting hazardous solar events. The primary difficulty in developing and applying modern machine-learning tools in heliophysics is that the essential data are scattered among over a hundred data repositories developed by instrument teams of space missions and ground-based observatories. In addition, statistical and ML methods require long time series of homogeneous measurements. To facilitate ML-ready data preparation and access, we have developed an interactive database of solar flares integrating the most essential datasets (https://solarflare.njit.edu/). The database performs an initial data processing and is automatically updated. In addition, we are developing the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3, https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow users to retrieve the database records. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. The interactive widget can display soft X-ray and proton flux time series from GOES satellites and the flare records. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of solar proton events and investigate machine-learning approaches to SEP prediction.

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