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At least 433 records · Page 24

The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity and Temperature Trends for Stratospheric Water

We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higherfrequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model minus observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980s, model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990s, followed by a moistening in the early 2000s. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000s onward, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still suffer from artifacts that need to be resolved in order to answer the question whether the large-scale flow and temperature field is sufficient to explain water entering the stratosphere.

Fueglistaler, S.↗

Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7% of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.

Linear Alternators↗

Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and also compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7 of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.

Linear Alternators↗

Development and Integration of an Advanced Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator Model for a Tool Simulating Convertor Performance and Creating Phasor Diagrams

A simple model of the Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC) linear alternator and an AC bus controller has been developed and combined with a previously developed thermodynamic model of the convertor for a more complete simulation and analysis of the system performance. The model was developed using Sage, a 1-D thermodynamic modeling program that now includes electro-magnetic components. The convertor, consisting of a free-piston Stirling engine combined with a linear alternator, has sufficiently sinusoidal steady-state behavior to allow for phasor analysis of the forces and voltages acting in the system. A MATLAB graphical user interface (GUI) has been developed to interface with the Sage software for simplified use of the ASC model, calculation of forces, and automated creation of phasor diagrams. The GUI allows the user to vary convertor parameters while fixing different input or output parameters and observe the effect on the phasor diagrams or system performance. The new ASC model and GUI help create a better understanding of the relationship between the electrical component voltages and mechanical forces. This allows better insight into the overall convertor dynamics and performance.

Metscher, Jonathan F.↗

Development and Integration of an Advanced Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator Model for a Tool Simulating Convertor Performance and Creating Phasor Diagrams

A simple model of the Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC) linear alternator and an AC bus controller has been developed and combined with a previously developed thermodynamic model of the convertor for a more complete simulation and analysis of the system performance. The model was developed using Sage, a 1-D thermodynamic modeling program that now includes electro-magnetic components. The convertor, consisting of a free-piston Stirling engine combined with a linear alternator, has sufficiently sinusoidal steady-state behavior to allow for phasor analysis of the forces and voltages acting in the system. A MATLAB graphical user interface (GUI) has been developed to interface with the Sage software for simplified use of the ASC model, calculation of forces, and automated creation of phasor diagrams. The GUI allows the user to vary convertor parameters while fixing different input or output parameters and observe the effect on the phasor diagrams or system performance. The new ASC model and GUI help create a better understanding of the relationship between the electrical component voltages and mechanical forces. This allows better insight into the overall convertor dynamics and performance.

Metscher, Jonathan F.↗

Improvement of Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction Retrieval from OMPS/LP Using a New Aerosol Model

The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS/LP) has been flying on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite since October 2011. It is designed to produce ozone and aerosol vertical profiles at 2-kilometer vertical resolution over the entire sunlit globe. Aerosol extinction profiles are computed with Mie theory using radiances measured at 675 nanometers. The operational Version 1.0 (V1.0) aerosol extinction retrieval algorithm assumes a bimodal lognormal aerosol size distribution (ASD) whose parameters were derived by combining an in situ measurement of aerosol microphysics with the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) aerosol extinction climatology. Internal analysis indicates that this bimodal lognormal ASD does not sufficiently explain the spectral dependence of LP-measured radiances. In this paper we describe the derivation of an improved aerosol size distribution, designated Version 1.5 (V1.5), for the LP retrieval algorithm. The new ASD uses a gamma function distribution that is derived from Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA)-calculated results. A cumulative distribution fit derived from the gamma function ASD gives better agreement with CARMA results at small particle radii than bimodal or unimodal functions. The new ASD also explains the spectral dependence of LP-measured radiances better than the V1.0 ASD. We find that the impact of our choice of ASD on the retrieved extinctions varies strongly with the underlying reflectivity of the scene. Initial comparisons with collocated extinction profiles retrieved at 676 nanometers from the SAGE III instrument on the International Space Station (ISS) show a significant improvement in agreement for the LP V1.5 retrievals. Zonal mean extinction profiles agree to within 10 percent between 19 and 29 kilometers, and regression fits of collocated samples show improved correlation and reduced scatter compared to the V1.0 product. This improved agreement will motivate development of more sophisticated ASDs from CARMA results that incorporate latitude, altitude and seasonal variations in aerosol properties.

Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS/L↗

Monitoring the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Aerosol Cloud Using Space-Based Observations

- We will analyze the volcanic plume progression, spread and properties using space-based observations - OMPS LP, SAGE III/ISS, CALIPSO, TROPOMI - OMPS LP and SAGE III/ISS are limb instruments that measure the aerosol vertical profiles globally, while CALIPSO is a LIDAR that measures the backscatter and depolarization ratio of the aerosol profiles. -TROPOMI is a UV instrument that measures SO2 and absorbing aerosol total column - Volcanic plume in the upper stratosphere - The main plume in middle stratosphere - Volcanic aerosol transport to SH/NH - Volcanic aerosol optical properties

Atmospheric Science↗

Smc-Last Point Source Catalog Spitzer'S Last Survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud

We present a processing for the point source catalog derived from Spitzer's final two surveys of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). These 2017-2018 maps duplicate the footprint from the SAGE-SMC program from 2008 and were obtained at 3.6 and 4.5 μm with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC). They provide a nearly 10-year baseline of all observations of the SMC made by Spitzer. We extracted point sources from both the basic calibrated data (BCD) as well as the final processed mosaics. We did not use any prior catalogs as inputs in order to search for moving objects (e.g., foreground brown dwarfs) and other transient phenomena. The extractions from two test fields are shown here: a field sparsely populated with stars and a second containing more complicated structures. Comparing our extractions between both of our epochs and with the SAGE epochs shows the completeness and range of our survey. The mosaics are currently available on the Infrared Science Archive (IRSA) and the Harvard Dataverse. The final point source catalog will be available at both archives, as well. This work is supported by NASA Award 80NSSC19K0585.

Thomas Kuchar↗

CREST: a Climate Data Record of Stratospheric Aerosols

Climate-related studies need information about the distribution of stratospheric aerosols, which influence the energy balance of the Earth’s atmosphere. In this work, we present a merged dataset of vertically resolved stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficients, which is derived using data from six limb and occultation satellite instruments: SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) II on ERBS (Earth Radiation Budget Satellite), GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) and SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) on Envisat, OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System) on Odin, OMPS (Ozone Monitor Profiling Suite Limb Profiler) on Suomi NPP, and SAGE III on the ISS (International Space Station). The merging of aerosol profiles is performed via the transformation of the aerosol datasets from individual satellite instruments to the same wavelength (750 nm) and their de-biasing and homogenization by adjusting the seasonal cycles. After such homogenization, the data from individual satellite instruments are in good agreement. The merged aerosol extinction coefficient is computed as the median of the adjusted data from the individual instruments. The merged time series of vertically resolved monthly mean aerosol extinction coefficients at 750 nm is provided in 10° latitudinal bins from 90° S to 90° N, in the altitude range from 8.5 to 39.5 km. The time series of the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is created via the integration of aerosol extinction profiles from the tropopause to 39.5 km; it is also provided as monthly mean data in 10° latitudinal bins. The created aerosol climate record covers the period from October 1984 until December 2023, and it is intended to be extended in the future. The merged CREST aerosol dataset (v2) is available at https://doi.org/10.57707/fmib2share.dfe14351fd8548bcaca3c2956b17f665 (Sofieva et al., 2024a). It can be used in various climate-related studies.

Viktoria F Sofieva↗

Rigorous Analytic Combinatorics in Several Variables in SageMath

We introduce the new [sage_acsv] package for the SageMath computer algebra system, allowing users to rigorously compute asymptotics for a large variety of multivariate sequences with rational generating functions. Using Sage's support for exact computations over the algebraic number field, this package provides the first rigorous implementation of algorithms from the theory of analytic combinatorics in several variables.

Hackl, Benjamin↗

Grouse and Land-Based Wind Energy Development in the United States

Several species of grouse occupy prairie and sagebrush habitat across the western United States. Sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus), greater prairie chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), and lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) reside in the grassland prairies of the Great Plains. In the Intermountain West, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) inhabit the expansive sagebrush plains. The continued deployment of wind energy across the United States, particularly in prairie and sagebrush habitats, may result in a myriad of impacts to grouse species, although there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the extent of the impact.

avoidance↗

Building Capacity: Solar Photovoltaics Site Assessment and Feasibility Study

While Bhutan is abundant with clean energy hydropower, there are dry months in winter when solar energy could reduce expensive power inputs and bolster Bhutan's energy resilience and independence. As the country explores solar photovoltaic (PV) development as an option to achieve that goal, grid planners and renewable energy experts are partnering with the South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) to determine the benefits and challenges of building solar energy systems in Bhutan.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors

NASA Glenn’s Thermal Energy Conversion Branch is supporting the development of the next generation free-piston Stirling power convertors for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (DRPS). American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc. are the two of the firms under contract to develop the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC) and the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC), respectively, to meet DRPS requirements. To comprehend and forecast convertor performance, Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent were used to model the Stirling thermodynamic cycle, alternator electromagnetics, and piston and displacer dynamics.

Stirling↗

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors

NASA Glenn’s Thermal Energy Conversion Branch is supporting the development of the next generation free-piston Stirling power convertors for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (DRPS). American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc. are the two of the firms under contract to develop the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC) and the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC), respectively, to meet DRPS requirements. To comprehend and forecast convertor performance, Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent were used to model the Stirling thermodynamic cycle, alternator electromagnetics, and piston and displacer dynamics.

Stirling↗

South Asia Group for Energy - Bhutan

Bhutan's electricity system is already low-carbon through the use of hydropower. However, generation from hydroelectric plants is reduced during the dry winter months and will be impacted by climate change and other extreme weather events. Bhutan is mitigating these risks by diversifying their energy mix with clean energy resources. Bhutan is exploring photovoltaic (PV) solar energy development to enhance its energy system's overall resilience. To ensure efficient grid planning and solar integration, Bhutan's power generator, Druk Green Power Corporation, and the transmission and distribution utility, Bhutan Power Corporation, are partnering with the South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) to develop their solar capabilities, integrate solar energy into the grid, and strengthen Bhutan's energy infrastructure and efficiency.

Bhutan↗

South Asia Group for Energy - Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka set a target of generating 70% of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030. This goal includes the addition of 5.8 GW of renewable power capacity, comprising hydropower, solar, wind, and biomass, between 2023 and 2030, with an interim target of adding 2.5 GW of renewable capacity by 2026. To accomplish this, Sri Lanka's power grid needs significant transformation and modernization to handle the integration of variable renewable energy sources effectively. The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) is helping Sri Lanka's grid operator, the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), understand the gaps for operating the grid with higher renewable share and identifying technology and research requirements to establish a variable renewable energy control center.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

Importance: The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective: To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program’s 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure: Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures: Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results: A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the performance of random forest and iterative random forest based methods when applied to gene expression data

Gene-to-gene networks, such as Gene Regulatory Networks (GRN) and Predictive Expression Networks (PEN) capture relationships between genes and are beneficial for use in downstream biological analyses. There exists multiple network inference tools to produce these gene-to-gene networks from matrices of gene expression data. Random Forest-Leave One Out Prediction (RF-LOOP) is a method that has been shown to be efficient at producing these gene-to-gene networks, frequently known as GEne Network Inference with Ensemble of trees (GENIE3). Random Forest can be replaced in this process by iterative Random Forest (iRF), which performs variable selection and boosting. Here we validate that iterative Random Forest-Leave One Out Prediction (iRF-LOOP) produces higher quality networks than GENIE3 (RF-LOOP). We use both synthetic and empirical networks from the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) Challenges by Sage Bionetworks, as well as two additional empirical networks created from Arabidopsis thaliana and Populus trichocarpa expression data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗