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At least 433 records · Page 24

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Low Latency DESDynI Data Products for Disaster Response, Resource Management and Other Applications

We are developing onboard processor technology targeted at the L-band SAR instrument onboard the planned DESDynI mission to enable formation of SAR images onboard opening possibilities for near-real-time data products to augment full data streams. Several image processing and/or interpretation techniques are being explored as possible direct-broadcast products for use by agencies in need of low-latency data, responsible for disaster mitigation and assessment, resource management, agricultural development, shipping, etc. Data collected through UAVSAR (L-band) serves as surrogate to the future DESDynI instrument. We have explored surface water extent as a tool for flooding response, and disturbance images on polarimetric backscatter of repeat pass imagery potentially useful for structural collapse (earthquake), mud/land/debris-slides etc. We have also explored building vegetation and snow/ice classifiers, via support vector machines utilizing quad-pol backscatter, cross-pol phase, and a number of derivatives (radar vegetation index, dielectric estimates, etc.). We share our qualitative and quantitative results thus far.

applications↗

An Assessment of Technical Hydropower Potential at Non-Powered Dams in the United States

Historically, dams have been constructed for a variety of purposes, such as providing a more secure and reliable water supply, mitigating impacts from variations in river flow, allowing continuous navigability, and harnessing mechanical power. A relatively small portion of dams have been designed to store or regulate flows for the purpose of generating electricity (roughly 3% of nationally inventoried dams in the US and 17% of the dams included in the World Register of Dams). The remaining population of existing non-powered dams (NPDs) presents both an opportunity to generate renewable energy and a need to modernize aging infrastructure. This report describes an assessment of more than 2,600 NPDs in the US that have a collective potential of nearly 4 GW in new power capacity. Previous national-scale assessments were aimed at evaluating the theoretical maximum power potential at existing dams in the United States. These estimates were based on the best available information at the time for water availability, hydraulic head, and representative regional capacity factors. This study revisits a subset of 3,299 dams identified in the most recent theoretical resource assessment and uses more detailed and updated hydrologic data to produce estimates of technical potential. These improvements in data enable estimates that more realistically reflect what is physically possible given simple assumptions about the existing structure and constraints on flow and head (Figure 1).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Makah Tribe Strategic Energy Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) connects remote and island communities, regional partners, and the DOE national laboratories to support communities as they seek to build resilience in their energy systems. The Makah Tribe faces several energy challenges, including frequent power outages and the potential for an extended outage due to an earthquake or tsunami. The Tribe joined ETIPP in 2022 to address those challenges, seeking to build energy resilience and sovereignty in the community. The Makah Tribe, Spark Northwest, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to develop a strategic energy plan as part of the second cohort of ETIPP communities. The long-term energy vision of the Makah Tribe includes increasing energy efficiency in the community, improving energy management capacity, and developing the renewable energy generation and storage sufficient to independently power the Reservation for one year. Additionally, the ETIPP team worked with Makah leadership, staff, and community members to identify a set of community priorities, values, and goals to guide energy development as the Tribe takes the incremental steps toward their vision for energy sovereignty. Those energy values include ecosystem-based management, energy sovereignty and project ownership, workforce development and capacity, economic opportunity, community wellbeing and priorities, and emergency disaster resilience. To understand what would be needed for a year for energy independence, the PNNL team conducted an assessment to determine the current energy usage of the Tribe and also modeled several scenarios for future energy use. Using the energy usage values, the team estimated how two types of renewable energy technology, specifically locally deployed solar and small-scale wind, could contribute towards the energy independence goal. The energy baseline and resource assessment produced the following key findings:

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Derisking Superhot Geothermal Plays with Value of Information: Utilizing Play Fairway Analysis, Geophysics and Technoeconomics

This paper describes a methodology for evaluating how the play fairways analysis (e.g., favorability) can improve our chances of making geothermal development decisions. We make statistical resource assessments and couple them with technoeconomic analysis utilizing previous favorability work performed for the Newberry Volcano. We demonstrate how the favorability can be used in a decision analysis framework because the Newberry favorability also estimated an associated uncertainty. The specific decision considered is how large of a power plant to build, which is difficult given the uncertainty about the resource size. Our results focus on two resource types, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems, and they demonstrate how estimates of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates of the geothermal resource (denoted as the P10, P50, and P90, respectively) can be used in a decision analysis framework. Lastly, the value of information results explore using favorability with and without the magnetotelluric and gravity data from the Newberry Volcano. As expected, the favorability is more reliable, according to our methodology, at indicating the resource size when it includes the two geophysical models.

enhanced geothermal system↗

Historic Significance and Current Condition Assessment of Building 06-CP-170, the Yucca Flat Weather Station, Area 6, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This report was produced in partial fulfillment of the mitigation of adverse effects to Building 06-CP-170, the Yucca Flat Weather Station on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), and is intended to comply with the 2021 Memorandum of Agreement DE-GM58-21NA25543 Between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Demolition of Fourteen Buildings and Structures in Area 6 of the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (hereafter referred to as the MOA). This MOA was executed to resolve adverse effects from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plan to demolish 14 architectural resources at the Control Point and in the vicinity in Area 6 of the NNSS. The management and operations contractor for the NNSS identified these 14 architectural resources as environmental hazards unsafe for human occupation due to deterioration and rodent infestation. Building 06-CP-170 is scheduled for demolition as part of this undertaking. Building 06-CP-170 was originally recorded in 2018 during a Section 106 cultural resources inventory for a proposed installation of a 138-kilovolt transmission line on the NNSS. The building was determined individually eligible by the DOE, in consultation with the Nevada State Historic Preservation Office, for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places under the Secretary of the Interior’s Significance Criterion A because of its association with nuclear testing. Pursuant to Stipulation III.D.3 of the MOA, this report provides a summary of the historic significance of Building 06-CP-170 and a description of its current condition and accessory resources. In addition, an updated Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form with new information and photographs is included in the appendix in fulfillment of Stipulation III.D.2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct normal irradiance related definitions and applications: The circumsolar issue

The direct irradiance received on a plane normal to the sun, called direct normal irradiance (DNI), is of particular relevance to concentrated solar technologies, including concentrating solar thermal plants and concentrated photovoltaic systems. Following various standards from the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), the DNI definition is related to the irradiance from a small solid angle of the sky, centered on the position of the sun. Half-angle apertures of pyrheliometers measuring DNI have varied over time, up to ≈10°. The current recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for this half-angle is 2.5°. Solar concentrating collectors have an angular acceptance function that can be significantly narrower, especially for technologies with high concentration ratios. The disagreement between the various interpretations of DNI, from the theoretical definition used in atmospheric physics and radiative transfer modeling to practical definitions corresponding to specific measurements or conversion technologies is significant, especially in the presence of cirrus clouds or large concentration of aerosols. Under such sky conditions, the circumsolar radiation—i.e. the diffuse radiation coming from the vicinity of the sun—contributes significantly to the DNI ground measurement, although some concentrating collectors cannot utilize the bulk of it. These issues have been identified in the EU-funded projects MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate-Interim Implementation) and SFERA (Solar Facilities for the European Research Area), and have been discussed within a panel of international experts in the framework of the Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC) program of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Task 46 “ Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting ”. In accordance with these discussions, the terms of reference related to DNI are specified here. The important role of circumsolar radiation is evidenced, and its potential contribution is evaluated for typical atmospheric conditions. Thus, thorough analysis of performance of concentrating solar systems, it is recommended that, in addition to the conventional DNI related to 2.5° half-angle of today’s pyrheliometers, solar resource data sets also report the sunshape, the circumsolar contribution or the circumsolar ratio (CSR).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Wave Resource Characterization Using an Unstructured Grid Modeling Approach

This paper presents a modeling study conducted on the central Oregon coast for wave resource characterization using the unstructured-grid SWAN model coupled with a nested-grid WWIII model. The flexibility of models of various spatial resolutions and the effects of open- boundary conditions simulated by a nested-grid WWIII model with different physics packages were evaluated. The model results demonstrate the advantage of the unstructured-grid modeling approach for flexible model resolution and good model skills in simulating the six wave resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission in comparison to the observed data in Year 2009 at National Data Buoy Center Buoy 46050. Notably, spectral analysis indicates that the ST4 physics package improves upon the model skill of the ST2 physics package for predicting wave power density for large waves, which is important for wave resource assessment, device load calculation, and risk management. In addition, bivariate distributions show the simulated sea state of maximum occurrence with the ST4 physics package matched the observed data better than that with the ST2 physics package. This study demonstrated that the unstructured-grid wave modeling approach, driven by the nested-grid regional WWIII outputs with the ST4 physics package, can efficiently provide accurate wave hindcasts to support wave resource characterization. Our study also suggests that wind effects need to be considered if the dimension of the model domain is greater than approximately 100 km, or O (10^2 km).

Wu, Wei-Cheng↗

Herbaceous Feedstock 2019 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the State of Technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014)) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2019 Herbaceous SOT incorporates several technology changes in feedstock preprocessing and introduces opportunities from the integrated landscape management (ILM) strategy and increased grower participation to reduce biomass access costs, while maintaining or improving grower profitability. During FY18 uneven flow from the horizontal bale grinder was identified as a significant issue limiting preprocessing system throughput. Based on FSL-funded research at INL, the 2019 Herbaceous SOT replaces the horizontal bale grinder used in the first stage size reduction with a bale processor. The improved uniformity of biomass flow entering the PDU eliminated slugging flow from the first stage size reduction and improved the throughput of downstream operations. In order to achieve moisture reduction through frictional heating during grinding (which allowed elimination of the costly rotary drum dryer in previous SOTs), the second stage grinder was changed from a rotary shear, which does not remove moisture, back to a hammer mill. Finally, the 2019 Herbaceous SOT introduces modified three-pass and two-pass corn stover supply curves derived from the BT16 resource assessment, based on FY19 modeling results (WBS 4.2.1.20) quantifying economic benefits of ILM in the supply area, together with modeling results (WBS 1.2.1.5) identifying ILM strategies to increase grower participation. The 2019 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of an herbaceous feedstock supply system from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2019 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $81.37 /dry ton (2016$); this is a $2.30/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2018 Herbaceous SOT. Technology improvements that contributed to this modeled cost reduction include reduced cost for the new preprocessing design and quantification of the opportunities of the integrated landscape management (ILM) strategy and an increased grower participation rate to reduce the grower payment portion of biomass access costs, while maintaining or improving grower profitability. A greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assessment was completed by Argonne National Laboratory using the 2019 Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation model, estimating an increase of 14.89 kg CO2e/ton from the 2018 SOT (69.27 kg CO2e/ton in 2018 to 84.16 kg CO2e/ton in 2019). The increase of energy consumption during preprocessing along with higher transportation distance to access low cost biomass from further distance contributed to the increase of GHG emissions in the 2019 Herbaceous SOT. The reason for the increased transportation distances was the cost tradeoff of going farther from the biorefinery to access the cheaper ILM-derived counties (the cheaper price outweighed the cost of increased supply radius).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Historic Significance and Current Condition Assessment of Building 06-CP-10, Device Assembly Building, Area 6, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This report was produced in partial fulfillment of the mitigation of adverse effects to Building 06-CP-10, the first device assembly building on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), and is intended to comply with the 2021 Memorandum of Agreement DE-GM58-21NA25543 Between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Demolition of Fourteen Buildings and Structures in Area 6 of the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County (hereafter referred to as the MOA). This MOA was executed to resolve adverse effects from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plan to demolish 14 architectural resources at the Control Point and in the vicinity in Area 6 of the NNSS. The management and operations contractor for the NNSS identified these 14 architectural resources as environmental hazards unsafe for human occupation due to deterioration and rodent infestation. Building 06-CP-10 and two small magazine bunkers (06-CP-10A and 06-CP-805) associated with Building 06-CP-10 are scheduled for demolition as part of this undertaking. Building 06-CP-10 was originally recorded in 2003 during a historical evaluation of four buildings in Area 6. In consultation with the Nevada State Historic Preservation Office, the building was determined individually eligible for inclusion in the NRHP under the Secretary of the Interior’s Significance Criterion A because of its association with nuclear testing and under Significance Criterion C as a distinct type of construction associated with the nuclear industry. Building 06-CP-10A, a munitions magazine, and 06- CP-805, a cap-and-fuse bunker, have been recorded as contributing accessory resources to 06-CP-10. Pursuant to Stipulation III.C.3 of the MOA, this report provides a summary of the historic significance of Building 06-CP-10 and a description of its current condition and accessory resources. In addition, an updated Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form with new information and photographs is included in the appendix in fulfillment of Stipulation III.C.2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A systematic analytical framework for multi-source municipal solid waste characterization for energy recovery

Advancing municipal solid waste (MSW) management from disposal-oriented practices toward circular, value-driven systems requires standardized methodologies capable of identifying material composition and resource recoverable potential at the point of generation. Despite extensive research, MSW characterization remains fragmented due to inconsistences in sampling methodologies, waste sorting categories, and temporal coverage across previous studies which limit cross-site comparability, reproducibility, and constrain the reliable evaluation of potential resource recovery pathways. This lack of consistency has hindered the development of a unified framework for MSW characterization and resource assessment. This study introduces a standardized, field-validated protocol for MSW sampling and composition analysis that ensures consistent, traceable data across diverse waste sources. The protocol integrates randomized spatial sampling, systematic material sorting, and controlled subsampling for multi-site and multi-season field campaigns. Validation included MSW collection from residential, grocery, restaurant, and school MSW streams across five U.S. states, including Maryland, Idaho, Virginia, Ohio, and Mississippi, to demonstrate the protocol’s ability to identify source-based composition patterns relevant to resource recovery applications. Grocery and restaurant streams were dominated by food waste and high-moisture organics, while school waste contained higher paper content and residential waste showed greater heterogeneity. Aggregation into energy-relevant fractions highlighted practical recovery pathways via anaerobic digestion or gasification, supporting data-driven planning, policy, and circular economy strategies for sustainable waste management across waste sources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Pumped Storage Hydropower Potential and Opportunities

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a flexible energy storage technology with the potential to improve grid reliability, resiliency, and stability in the electric grid of the future. NREL has developed a range of data and tools to help understand opportunities for new PSH deployment, including nationwide resource assessment data, a bottom-up component-level cost model, and a lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions calculator. These datasets can then be used to inform grid planning models, analysis, and decision making to understand the role PSH can play in the power sector.

cost↗

Finding of Effect, And Mitigation Documentation for Building 23-620, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-620 in the town of Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15283), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (see Figure 1). The purpose of the undertaking is related to the modernization of Mercury for future mission needs. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-620 was built in 1968 as office space for the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL), who worked on the design and engineering of nuclear weapons. In the 1990s, it became a maintenance facility for Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Company (REECo), and eventually, it became the Real Estate Services building in 2004. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been formally determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register, NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992. Building 23-620 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al.) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). Building 23-620 was also identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element, indicating that it might be individually eligible for the NRHP. It is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Mitigation Report: The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the demolition of Building 23-620 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15283) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230). This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report for Project: Impacts of stratification and non-equilibrium winds and waves on hub-height winds

This project used a combination of turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations, single-column modeling (where turbulence is parameterized), and currently available observations to improve, assess, and develop a parameterization of the impact of non-equilibrium wave states and stratification on the buoy-observed winds to establish reliable wind data at the turbine hub-height level. Analysis of turbulence-resolving simulations and observations illuminates the non-linear coupling between the atmosphere and the undulating sea surface. This analysis guides modification of existing boundary layer parameterizations to include wave influences for upward extrapolation of surface-based observations through the turbine layer. Our surface roughness modifications account for the interaction between stratification and the effects of swell’s amplitude and wavelength as well as swell’s relative motion with respect to the mean wind direction. The single-column version of the open source Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al., 2008) serves as our platform to test our proposed planetary boundary layer parameterization modifications that account for wave effects on marine atmospheric boundary layer flows. WRF has been widely adopted for wind resource analysis and forecasting. The single column version is particularly suitable to development, analysis, and testing of new boundary layer parameterizations. We utilize WRF’s single-column version to verify and validate our proposed modifications to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization (Nakanishi and Niino, 2004). We explore the implications of our modifications for two-way coupling between WRF and wave models (e.g.,Wavewatch III). The newly implemented parameterization accounting for marine atmospheric boundary layer-wave coupling is then tested in three-dimensional WRF simulations at grid sizes near 1 km. These simulations identify the behavior of simulated winds at the wind plant scale. Overall project conclusions include; In the presence of fast-moving swell (significant wave height Hs = 6.4 m, and phase speed cp = 18 ms -1 ), the atmospheric boundary layer grows more rapidly when waves propagate opposite to the winds compared to when winds and waves are aligned. Pressure drag increases by nearly a factor of 2 relative to the turbulent stress for the extreme case where waves propagate at 180° compared to the pressure gradient forcing. Net wind speed reduces by nearly 15% at hub-height for the 180°-case compared to the 0°-case, and turbulence intensities increase by nearly a factor of 2. These impacts diminish with decreasing wave age; Stratification increases hub height wind speeds and increases the vertical shear of the mean wind across the rotor plane. Fortuitously, this stability-induced enhanced shear does not influence turbulence intensity at hub height, but does increase (decrease) turbulence intensity below (above) hub height. Increased stability also increases the wave-induced pressure stress by ~ 10%; Off the East Coast of the United States during Coupled Boundary Layers Air-Sea Transfer - Low Wind (CBLAST-Low), cases with short fetch include thin stable boundary layers with depths of only a few tens of meters. In the coastal zone, the relationship between the mean wind and the surface fiction velocity (u*(V )) is significantly related to wind direction for weak winds but is not systematically related to the air sea difference of virtual potential temperature, δθv; since waves generally propagate from the south at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) tower, these results suggest that under weak wind conditions waves likely influence surface stress more than stratification does; and Winds and waves are frequently misaligned in the coastal zone. Stability conditions persist for long duration. Over a four year period, the Forschungsplattformen in Nord- und Ostsee Nr. 1 (FINO1) tower (a site with long fetch) primarily experienced weakly-unstable conditions, while stability at the ASIT tower (with a larger influence of offshore winds) experiences a mix of both unstable and stable conditions, where the summer months are predominantly stable. Wind-wave misalignment likely explains the large scatter in observed non-dimensional surface roughness under swell-dominated conditions. Andreas et al.’s (2012) relationship between u* and the 10-m wind speed under predicts the increased u* produced by wave-induced pressure drag produced by misaligned winds and waves. Incorporating wave-state (speed and direction) influences in parameterizations improves predictive skill. In a broad sense, these results suggest that one needs information on winds, temperature, and wave state to upscale buoy measurements to hub-height and across the rotor plane. Our parameterization of wave-state influences on surface drag has been submitted for inclusion in the next publicly available release. In combination, our project elucidates the impacts of two important physical processes (non-equilibrium wind/waves and stratification) on the atmosphere within which offshore turbines operate. This knowledge should help guide and inform manufacturers making critical decisions surrounding design criteria of future turbines to be deployed in the coastal zone. Reductions in annually averaged hub height wind speed error using our new wave-state-aware surface layer parameterization are relatively modest. However since wind turbine power production depends on the wind speed cubed, the error in estimated power production is close to 5%; which is significant and can substantially impact wind resource assessment and decision making with regards to the viability of particular location for a wind plant location. For a single 30-hour forecast, significant reductions in wind speed prediction errors can yield substantially improved wind power forecast skill, thereby mitigating costs and/or increasing revenue through improved; forecasting for maintenance operations and planning; day-ahead forecasting for power trading and resource allocation; and short-term forecasting for dispatch and grid balancing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Area 6 Control Point: An Architectural Survey of the Area 6 Control Point, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) proposes to demolish five buildings and five accessory resources in the Area 6 Control Point at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The demolition and removal of the buildings and accessories constitute an undertaking subject to review under Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) (54 United States Code [USC] § 306101) and its implementing regulations, 36 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 800. The buildings and accessories were recorded in Identification and Evaluation of 14 Architectural Resources Scheduled for Demolition, Area 6 Control Point and Vicinity, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada (Menocal et al. 2020). The report found that the five buildings were not individually eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP, National Register) but were potentially eligible as contributing elements to an unrecorded Area 6 Control Point district. The report also found that the five accessory resources were not individually eligible for the NRHP but they contributed to other historic properties, including the contributing elements to the unrecorded district. Finally, the report found that the undertaking would result in an adverse effect to historic properties. The State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) concurred with the report’s findings regarding the eligibility of the buildings and structures in the Area of Potential Effect (APE) and that the undertaking would result in an adverse effect (Reed 2020). The NNSA/NFO, in consultation with the SHPO, then developed the Memorandum of Agreement DE-GM58-21NA25543 Between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Demolition of Fourteen Buildings and Structures in Area 6 of the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, hereafter referred to as the MOA. The MOA stipulates that a district boundary be delineated with an accompanying boundary report and supporting photographs (Stipulation III.A) followed by an architectural survey of the potential historic district (Stipulation III.B). The SHPO reviewed and concurred with the proposed district boundary and accompanying boundary report and photographs (O’Neill et al. 2021) on August 23, 2021, in fulfillment of Stipulation III.A (Reed 2021). This architectural survey report has been prepared in accordance with Stipulation III.B. It includes an NRHP evaluation of the district, identifies contributing and non-contributing elements, and is accompanied by Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) forms. The NRHP evaluation concludes that the Area 6 Control Point is recommended eligible as a historic district under the Secretary of the Interior’s Significance Criterion A at the national level as the location of the command center and various support facilities directly related to timing and firing operations for nuclear testing on the NNSS from 1951 to 1992. It is also recommended eligible under Significance Criterion C for embodying the distinctive characteristics of a nuclear command center in the context of the Cold War and as a significant and distinguishable entity. There are a total of 29 primary resources within the district boundary. Of these, 28 are recommended as contributing elements to the Area 6 Control Point Historic District and one is recommended as non-contributing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climatic imprint on interfacially-controlled platinum-palladium resources

Abstract Iron oxide-rich laterites, soils, and regolith formed from the weathering of ultramafic rocks represent untapped unconventional resources for the critical minerals platinum and palladium, but the fundamental surficial geochemistry of these elements remains poorly understood. Depletion of Pd relative to Pt occurs in some weathering zones in semi-arid climates. The accepted model attributes this platinum-palladium chemical fractionation to preferential complexation of Pd by dissolved chloride. However, similar fractionation is not observed in laterites of humid equatorial regions despite substantial wet deposition of chloride. The established mechanistic model for Pt and Pd behavior during weathering thus inaccurately predicts the distribution of these critical minerals in many settings, hindering global resource assessment. We show through mineral-fluid partitioning experiments coupled to element-specific spectroscopy that this canonical explanation for platinum-palladium fractionation is invalid: chloride complexation does not differentially mobilize Pd versus Pt. Instead, mineral-specific interfacial reactions control Pd and Pt accumulation. Modeling of platinum-palladium fractionation in representative weathering zone profiles demonstrates sub-equal retention in goethite-rich settings and Pd depletion in hematite-rich zones, accurately predicting trends observed in soils and laterites. Iron oxide mineralogy, reflecting modern and past regional climate conditions, is likely the primary determinant of Pt and Pd endowment in weathering zone resources. This new model for Pt and Pd mobilization and accumulation behavior provides a mechanistic foundation for exploration and recovery of platinum group elements from novel ultramafic regolith deposits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China

China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, which will require unprecedented deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. At terawatt-scale deployment, land use limitations interact with operational and economic features of power systems. To address this, we developed a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization that models a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Our modeling results show that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Finding of Adverse Effect and Proposed Mitigation for the Demolition of Building 23-530, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-530 in Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15270), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The purpose of the undertaking is related to the modernization of Mercury for future mission needs. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-530, a dormitory called Freedom Hall, was constructed in Mercury in 1982 and served as a support facility for nuclear testing for the last decade of the Cold War. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for their importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992 (Reed 2019). Building 23-530 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al. 2018) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). Building 23-530 was also identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category II contributing element. Category II properties are those that have several representatives in the MHD but may possess different engineering or architectural characteristics that distinguish them from other classes of similar elements. Building 23-530 is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the demolition of Building 23-530 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15270) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The dormitory is considered contributing to the significance of the district both for its historic importance in relation to nuclear testing under Criterion A and as a part of the distinctive design and construction of the district under Criterion C. This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗