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At least 433 records · Page 24

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

Most businesses recognize that people will make mistakes and assume errors are just part of the cost of doing business, but does it need to be? Companies with high risk, or major consequences, should consider the effect of human error. In a variety of industries, Human Errors have caused costly failures and workplace injuries. These have included: airline mishaps, medical malpractice, administration of medication and major oil spills have all been blamed on human error. A technique to mitigate or even eliminate some of these costly human errors is the use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Various methodologies are available to perform Human Reliability Assessments that range from identifying the most likely areas for concern to detailed assessments with human error failure probabilities calculated. Which methodology to use would be based on a variety of factors that would include: 1) how people react and act in different industries, and differing expectations based on industries standards, 2) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 3) type and availability of data and 4) how the industry views risk & reliability influences ( types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks versus cost based concerns). The Human Reliability Assessments should be the first step to reduce, mitigate or eliminate the costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify human error risks allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these risks and prevent costly failures.

DeMott, Diana↗

Failure-Tolerant Avionics for Crewed Space Systems Recommended Best Practices

This paper provides an overview of some of the major steps needed to mature and justify the design of an avionics system for crewed spacecraft. It is organized as a collection of artifacts or pieces of evidence that NASA needs to assess the system at design reviews, including a functional failure modes and effects analysis (FFMEA), fault containment region (FCR) definitions, the failure hypothesis, and reliability analysis. This paper is intended as a reference for designers working on NASA crewed spaceflight projects, reliability engineers responsible for avionics system assessments, and program managers wanting to understand what evidence is required at design reviews to ensure crew safety and mission success.

Avionics↗

Selected reliability studies for the NERVA program

An investigation was made into certain methods of reliability analysis that are particularly suitable for complex mechanisms or systems in which there are many interactions. The methods developed were intended to assist in the design of such mechanisms, especially for analysis of failure sensitivity to parameter variations and for estimating reliability where extensive and meaningful life testing is not feasible. The system is modeled by a network of interconnected nodes. Each node is a state or mode of operation, or is an input or output node, and the branches are interactions. The network, with its probabilistic and time-dependent paths is also analyzed for reliability and failure modes by a Monte Carlo, computerized simulation of system performance.

Hoover, S. V.↗

The 747 primary flight control systems reliability and maintenance study

The major operational characteristics of the 747 Primary Flight Control Systems (PFCS) are described. Results of reliability analysis for separate control functions are presented. The analysis makes use of a NASA computer program which calculates reliability of redundant systems. Costs for maintaining the 747 PFCS in airline service are assessed. The reliabilities and cost will provide a baseline for use in trade studies of future flight control system design.

Source record↗

Demonstration Advanced Avionics System (DAAS), Phase 1

Demonstration advanced anionics system (DAAS) function description, hardware description, operational evaluation, and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) are provided. Projected advanced avionics system (PAAS) description, reliability analysis, cost analysis, maintainability analysis, and modularity analysis are discussed.

Bailey, A. J.↗

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Advancing human exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit, and ultimately to Mars, is of great interest to NASA, other organizations, and space exploration advocates. Various strategies for getting to Mars have been proposed. These include NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, a near-term flyby of Mars advocated by the group Inspiration Mars, and potential options developed for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign. Regardless of which approach is used to get to Mars, they all share a need to visualize and analyze their proposed campaign and evaluate the feasibility of the launch and on-orbit assembly segment of the campaign. The launch and assembly segment starts with flight hardware manufacturing and ends with final departure of a Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV), or set of MTVs, from an assembly orbit near Earth. This paper describes a discrete event simulation based strategic visualization and analysis tool that can be used to evaluate the launch campaign reliability of any proposed strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The input to the simulation can be any manifest of multiple launches and their associated transit operations between Earth and the exploration destinations, including Earth orbit, lunar orbit, asteroids, moons of Mars, and ultimately Mars. The simulation output includes expected launch dates and ascent outcomes i.e., success or failure. Running 1,000 replications of the simulation provides the capability to perform launch campaign reliability analysis to determine the probability that all launches occur in a timely manner to support departure opportunities and to deliver their payloads to the intended orbit. This allows for quantitative comparisons between alternative scenarios, as well as the capability to analyze options for improving launch campaign reliability. Results are presented for representative strategies.

Cates, Grant↗

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Advancing human exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit, and ultimately to Mars, is of great interest to NASA, other organizations, and space exploration advocates. Various strategies for getting to Mars have been proposed. These include NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, a near-term flyby of Mars advocated by the group Inspiration Mars, and potential options developed for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign. Regardless of which approach is used to get to Mars, they all share a need to visualize and analyze their proposed campaign and evaluate the feasibility of the launch and on-orbit assembly segment of the campaign. The launch and assembly segment starts with flight hardware manufacturing and ends with final departure of a Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV), or set of MTVs, from an assembly orbit near Earth. This paper describes a discrete event simulation based strategic visualization and analysis tool that can be used to evaluate the launch campaign reliability of any proposed strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The input to the simulation can be any manifest of multiple launches and their associated transit operations between Earth and the exploration destinations, including Earth orbit, lunar orbit, asteroids, moons of Mars, and ultimately Mars. The simulation output includes expected launch dates and ascent outcomes i.e., success or failure. Running 1,000 replications of the simulation provides the capability to perform launch campaign reliability analysis to determine the probability that all launches occur in a timely manner to support departure opportunities and to deliver their payloads to the intended orbit. This allows for quantitative comparisons between alternative scenarios, as well as the capability to analyze options for improving launch campaign reliability. Results are presented for representative strategies.

Cates, Grant↗

Premium quality 5A1-2.5 Sn ELI titanium production

Preliminary design and reliability analysis conducted on the turbopump for the NERVA 75,000 full flow cycle engine, indicated that the turbopump bearings were the most critical turbopump parts in meeting the 10 hour life at the required turbopump reliability of .99978. The analysis revealed that significant reductions (approximately a factor of 3.25) in bearing loads would be achieved by fabricating the rotating parts from titanium in lieu of A286 or 718. This is basically due to the difference in density of the materials and the resulting mass effect on the location of the first and second stick mode critical speeds. For the selected rotor configuration, the lighter material has a first critical speed at approximately 36,000 rpm, while that of the heavier material has a first critical at approximately 27,000 rpm. As the operating range of the turbopump is from 0 to 30,000 rpm, the heavier material would have a stick mode critical in the operating range.

Dessau, P. P.↗

Cost prediction model for various payloads and instruments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

The following cost parameters of the space shuttle were undertaken: (1) to develop a cost prediction model for various payload classes of instruments and experiments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; and (2) to show the implications of various payload classes on the cost of: reliability analysis, quality assurance, environmental design requirements, documentation, parts selection, and other reliability enhancing activities.

Hoffman, F. E.↗

Rapid Modeling and Analysis Tools: Evolution, Status, Needs and Directions

Advanced aerospace systems are becoming increasingly more complex, and customers are demanding lower cost, higher performance, and high reliability. Increased demands are placed on the design engineers to collaborate and integrate design needs and objectives early in the design process to minimize risks that may occur later in the design development stage. High performance systems require better understanding of system sensitivities much earlier in the design process to meet these goals. The knowledge, skills, intuition, and experience of an individual design engineer will need to be extended significantly for the next generation of aerospace system designs. Then a collaborative effort involving the designer, rapid and reliable analysis tools and virtual experts will result in advanced aerospace systems that are safe, reliable, and efficient. This paper discusses the evolution, status, needs and directions for rapid modeling and analysis tools for structural analysis. First, the evolution of computerized design and analysis tools is briefly described. Next, the status of representative design and analysis tools is described along with a brief statement on their functionality. Then technology advancements to achieve rapid modeling and analysis are identified. Finally, potential future directions including possible prototype configurations are proposed.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗

Inspection planning development: An evolutionary approach using reliability engineering as a tool

This paper proposes an evolutionary approach for inspection planning which introduces various reliability engineering tools into the process and assess system trade-offs among reliability, engineering requirement, manufacturing capability and inspection cost to establish an optimal inspection plan. The examples presented in the paper illustrate some advantages and benefits of the new approach. Through the analysis, reliability and engineering impacts due to manufacturing process capability and inspection uncertainty are clearly understood; the most cost effective and efficient inspection plan can be established and associated risks are well controlled; some inspection reductions and relaxations are well justified; and design feedbacks and changes may be initiated from the analysis conclusion to further enhance reliability and reduce cost. The approach is particularly promising as global competitions and customer quality improvement expectations are rapidly increasing.

Graf, David A.↗

Methodological approach to the sensitivity analysis of failure effects in modern digital I and C systems - 136

Modern I and C systems of nuclear power plants increasingly use digital equipment, software-based applications for I and C functions and different types and topologies of communication networks as well. The structure, operation and communication of digital safety-related I and C systems are strongly influenced by the implemented automatic fault detection and fault treatment procedures as barriers against failure propagation. Thus, these I and C systems can change their operating states automatically during the operation time, e.g. due to the detection and correction of certain failure types. Reasonably because of these dynamic properties of digital I and C systems the use of classical fault tree and event tree methods solely for the reliability analysis of modern I and C systems is less suitable. These methods basically apply static models and do not consider the temporal changes of the operating state of the I and C system or equipment appropriately. In this paper, a recently developed approach for the sensitivity analysis of digital I and C systems will be introduced that allows to investigate the dynamic behavior of such systems in cases of internal faults and to quantify the effects on the system reliability. The development and testing of the analysis methodology is carried out using models of generic I and C systems with different typical architectures of stepwise increased complexity. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nodal Capacity Expansion Modeling with ReEDS: A Case Study of the RTS-GMLC Test System

Test systems play an important role in power systems analysis and are used extensively for a wide range of purposes like reliability analysis, production cost modeling, studying the impacts of load shifting, and many more. These test systems have continued to evolve over the years to keep pace with changing system compositions due to technology and policy changes. In this work, we apply the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a large-scale capacity expansion model (CEM), on the nodal RTS-GMLC system to perform capacity expansion of the bus-level test system. This work both demonstrates that a large-scale CEM can successfully be applied to nodal systems, and that the CEM can allow a test system to be evolved to meet desired criteria. The process allowed the coupling of CEM data not available in the test system (such as capital costs) with test system data to provide plausible system evolutions in line with scenario specifications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Efficient sensitivity analysis and optimization of a helicopter rotor

Aeroelastic optimization of a system essentially consists of the determination of the optimum values of design variables which minimize the objective function and satisfy certain aeroelastic and geometric constraints. The process of aeroelastic optimization analysis is illustrated. To carry out aeroelastic optimization effectively, one needs a reliable analysis procedure to determine steady response and stability of a rotor system in forward flight. The rotor dynamic analysis used in the present study developed inhouse at the University of Maryland is based on finite elements in space and time. The analysis consists of two major phases: vehicle trim and rotor steady response (coupled trim analysis), and aeroelastic stability of the blade. For a reduction of helicopter vibration, the optimization process requires the sensitivity derivatives of the objective function and aeroelastic stability constraints. For this, the derivatives of steady response, hub loads and blade stability roots are calculated using a direct analytical approach. An automated optimization procedure is developed by coupling the rotor dynamic analysis, design sensitivity analysis and constrained optimization code CONMIN.

Lim, Joon W.↗

Reliability of Fault Tolerant Control Systems

This paper reports Part I of a two part effort, that is intended to delineate the relationship between reliability and fault tolerant control in a quantitative manner. Reliability analysis of fault-tolerant control systems is performed using Markov models. Reliability properties, peculiar to fault-tolerant control systems are emphasized. As a consequence, coverage of failures through redundancy management can be severely limited. It is shown that in the early life of a syi1ein composed of highly reliable subsystems, the reliability of the overall system is affine with respect to coverage, and inadequate coverage induces dominant single point failures. The utility of some existing software tools for assessing the reliability of fault tolerant control systems is also discussed. Coverage modeling is attempted in Part II in a way that captures its dependence on the control performance and on the diagnostic resolution.

Wu, N. Eva↗

Operations and Modeling Analysis

The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.

Ebeling, Charles↗