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At least 433 records · Page 24

“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs

Climate model (or earth system model) projections are increasingly used for climate adaptation planning and impact assessments. As part of this process, many end‐users evaluate a subset of downscaled climate projections without being aware of the implications of downscaling methodology for statistics or event outcomes. Approaches for determining a subset of global climate models to use often focus on values from the raw models, rather than from their downscaled counterparts, in other words assuming that the statistical distribution of the multi‐model ensemble does not change post downscaling. This study demonstrates that a downscaled ensemble will typically retain the change distribution as a raw ensemble, but individual models can differ dramatically post‐downscaling. We recommend that subset‐selection methods account for this possibility and that decision‐relevant downscaled climate projections provide proper descriptions of fitness‐for‐purpose and essential caveats, so that non‐specialists can interpret the results with an appropriate level of confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inferring topological transitions in pattern-forming processes with self-supervised learning

Abstract The identification of transitions in pattern-forming processes are critical to understand and fabricate microstructurally precise materials in many application domains. While supervised methods can be useful to identify transition regimes, they need labels, which require prior knowledge of order parameters or relevant microstructures describing these transitions. Instead, we develop a self-supervised, neural-network-based approach that does not require predefined labels about microstructure classes to predict process parameters from observed microstructures. We show that assessing the difficulty of solving this inverse problem can be used to uncover microstructural transitions. We demonstrate our approach by automatically discovering microstructural transitions in two distinct pattern-forming processes: the spinodal decomposition of a two-phase mixture and the formation of binary-alloy microstructures during physical vapor deposition of thin films. This approach opens a path forward for discovering unseen or hard-to-discern transitions and ultimately controlling complex pattern-forming processes.

Abram, Marcin↗

Assessment of Physical Security Modeling and Simulation in the Vulnerability Assessment Process

This report provides a comprehensive assessment of physical security modeling and simulation tools available for use in the vulnerability assessment (VA) process for nuclear facilities. It outlines the historical evolution of VA methodologies, emphasizing the transition from traditional layer-based approaches to a more holistic framework that integrates detection probabilities directly into combat simulations. The document details the critical components of the VA process, including the characterization of targets, threats, and protective measures, as well as the development of adversary scenarios that reflect both insider and outsider threats. It highlights the importance of performance assurance programs, emphasizing the need for continuous evaluation and testing of security systems to ensure their effectiveness against evolving threats. Additionally, the report discusses the significance of utilizing accredited modeling and simulation tools in accredited areas to accurately represent adversary actions and the corresponding responses of protective forces. By establishing a systematic approach to VA, this document aims to enhance the overall security posture of nuclear facilities, ensuring compliance with regulatory standards while effectively mitigating risks associated with potential adversarial actions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

diffReplication - An Energy-Aware Fault Tolerance Model for Silent Error Detection and Mitigation in Heterogeneous Extreme-scale Computing Environment

At extreme scale, the frequency of silent errors – a class of errors that remain undetected by low-level error detection mechanisms – increases significantly with the computational complexity of the application and the scale of the computing infrastructure. As hardware and software advances are made to usher in the next scientific era of computing, developing new approaches to mitigate the impact of silent errors remains a challenging problem. In this work, we propose an energy-aware fault-tolerance model, referred to diffReplication to overcome silent errors. In the proposed model, the main process is associated with one replica that executes at the same rate as the main process, and one diffReplica that is executed at a fraction of the main process' execution rate. If the main and its replica reach consensus at the end of a computation phase, the state of the diffReplica is updated and computation is resumed. If the synchronization attempt results in a disagreement, however, the diffReplica increases its execution speed to complete the computation and quickly reach the synchronization barrier. Assuming a single error over any given synchronization interval, a majority voting is used to reach consensus and tolerate silent errors. To further enhance its performance, diffReplication is augmented with speculative execution, whereby the main or its fast replica is selected to continue execution without waiting for the diffReplica. The selection process is based on the previous behaviour of the main and its replica. A performance analysis study is carried out to assess the performance of diffReplication, in terms of the energy saving and time-to-completion reduction achieved by the diffReplication scheme. The experiment shows that speculative execution reduces the time to completion with additional energy, and dynamic decision-making balances the energy consumption and time to completion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SAMIS - A simulation of the solar array manufacturing industry

SAMIS is a continuing activity of the Project Analysis and Integration Task of the Low-cost Silicon Solar Array Project (LSSA). It provides a standardized procedure for producing reliable estimates of the cost of manufacturing solar arrays or their components. These estimates are based on descriptions of the manufacturing processes which are being studied and developed by LSSA subcontractors and will be used to assess the commercial viability of those processes and to set research priorities.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

Data Management Symposium, Huntsville, Ala., October 18, 19, 1977, Proceedings

The transfer, processing, and use of satellite data are discussed. Topics relating to simulation and processing techniques include computer design assessments through simulation, data system dynamic simulation, and future timing accuracy requirements and procedures for data processing. Subjects relevant to data base management systems and users and their needs include an image-based information system architecture for correlation satellite and topological data base, efficient searching and sorting applications using an associative array processor, analysis of user's needs for a large technical data base, and variable length data formats. The technology development outlook was considered with attention to data systems technology outlook for supporting NASA programs, a user-oriented interactive information extraction system, and flow control and sorting techniques for telemetry packets.

Castelli, A.↗

Sensitivity of Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss to Uncertainties in Chemical Reaction Kinetics

Several recent observational and laboratory studies of processes involved in polar stratospheric ozone loss have prompted a reexamination of aspects of our understanding for this key indicator of global change. To a large extent, our confidence in understanding and projecting changes in polar and global ozone is based on our ability to simulate these processes in numerical models of chemistry and transport. The fidelity of the models is assessed in comparison with a wide range of observations. These models depend on laboratory-measured kinetic reaction rates and photolysis cross sections to simulate molecular interactions. A typical stratospheric chemistry mechanism has on the order of 50- 100 species undergoing over a hundred intermolecular reactions and several tens of photolysis reactions. The rates of all of these reactions are subject to uncertainty, some substantial. Given the complexity of the models, however, it is difficult to quantify uncertainties in many aspects of system. In this study we use a simple box-model scenario for Antarctic ozone to estimate the uncertainty in loss attributable to known reaction kinetic uncertainties. Following the method of earlier work, rates and uncertainties from the latest laboratory evaluations are applied in random combinations. We determine the key reactions and rates contributing the largest potential errors and compare the results to observations to evaluate which combinations are consistent with atmospheric data. Implications for our theoretical and practical understanding of polar ozone loss will be assessed.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗

Making Spaceflight Practical and Affordable: Spacecraft Designs and Their Degree of Operability

As we push toward new and diverse space transportation capabilities, reduction in operations cost will become increasingly important. Achieving affordable and safe human spaceflight capabilities will be the mark of success for new programs and new providers. This paper reviews NASA s history in developing and operating human rated spacecraft, reviewing the key aspects of spacecraft design and their resultant impacts on operations phase complexity and cost. Specific examples from current and past programs are provided to tie together early program requirements, design implementation and resulting real-time operations experience into a complete "story" of design decisions and operational results. Based on these experiences, recommended techniques are outlined to enable earlier and more effective assessment of operations concerns during the design process.

Crocker, Alan R.↗

Making Human Spaceflight Practical and Affordable: Spacecraft Designs and their Degree of Operability

As we push toward new and diverse space transportation capabilities, reduction in operations cost becomes increasingly important. Achieving affordable and safe human spaceflight capabilities will be the mark of success for new programs and new providers. The ability to perceive the operational implications of design decisions is crucial in developing safe yet cost competitive space transportation systems. Any human spaceflight program - government or commercial - must make countless decisions either to implement spacecraft system capabilities or adopt operational constraints or workarounds to account for the lack of such spacecraft capabilities. These decisions can benefit from the collective experience that NASA has accumulated in building and operating crewed spacecraft over the last five decades. This paper reviews NASA s history in developing and operating human rated spacecraft, reviewing the key aspects of spacecraft design and their resultant impacts on operations phase complexity and cost. Specific examples from current and past programs - including the Space Shuttle and International Space Station - are provided to illustrate design traits that either increase or increase cost and complexity associated with spacecraft operations. These examples address factors such as overall design performance margins, levels of redundancy, degree of automated failure response, type and quantity of command and telemetry interfaces, and the definition of reference scenarios for analysis and test. Each example - from early program requirements, design implementation and resulting real-time operations experience - to tell the end-to-end "story" Based on these experiences, specific techniques are recommended to enable earlier and more effective assessment of operations concerns during the design process. A formal method for the assessment of spacecraft operability is defined and results of such operability assessments for recent spacecraft designs are provided. Recent experience in applying these techniques to Orion spacecraft development is reviewed to highlight the direct benefits of early operational assessment and collaborative development efforts.

Crocker, Alan R.↗

Progress on Natural Gas Pyrolysis for Low-Carbon H2 Production

This presentation summarizes the on-going work in NETL's new Natural Gas Decarbonization and H2 Technologies on Pyrolysis. It includes highlights on a modular pyrolysis based process producing H2 and solid carbons, a report documenting market size, drivers, customers for solid carbon products, and new work assessing H2 pyrolysis technologies for large scale H2 production.

Haynes, Daniel↗

On the competitive antagonism effect in combined chloride-sulfate attack: A numerical exploration

Highlights: • A chemo-physical-mechanical method based on thermodynamic modelling is implemented. • The contradicting findings from reported experiments are numerically explored. • The competitive antagonism effect is time-dependent rather than a conclusive term. • The competitive antagonism effect is quantifiable with a novel assessment criterion. It is of tremendous difficulty to draw a conclusive verdict on the complex process of mutual interference regarding the combined chloride-sulfate attack on concrete, where many have explored the topic, but contradicting results have been reported. In this paper, by taking advantages of the chemo-physical-mechanical method, based on the robust technique of thermodynamic modelling, the competitive antagonism effect in combined chloride-sulfate attack is investigated. Firstly, a range of reported tests are numerically modelled to demonstrate the effectiveness of the employed method in interpreting those opposing and diverse experimental outcomes. More importantly, a fresh conjecture incorporating a novel assessment criterion for the competitive antagonism effect is proposed and supported through a carefully designed illustrative example. Based on the numerical exploration, unique findings and implications for future engineering practices are revealed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Health Monitoring System Technology Assessments: Cost Benefits Analysis

The subject of sensor-based structural health monitoring is very diverse and encompasses a wide range of activities including initiatives and innovations involving the development of advanced sensor, signal processing, data analysis, and actuation and control technologies. In addition, it embraces the consideration of the availability of low-cost, high-quality contributing technologies, computational utilities, and hardware and software resources that enable the operational realization of robust health monitoring technologies. This report presents a detailed analysis of the cost benefit and other logistics and operational considerations associated with the implementation and utilization of sensor-based technologies for use in aerospace structure health monitoring. The scope of this volume is to assess the economic impact, from an end-user perspective, implementation health monitoring technologies on three structures. It specifically focuses on evaluating the impact on maintaining and supporting these structures with and without health monitoring capability.

Kent, Renee M.↗

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Implementation of risk-informed design allows the design team to thoroughly explore the risks of a system while iterating the operations concept, design, and requirements until the system meets mission objects and is achievable within constraints. To arrive at a space system design that is likely to meet all constraints placed upon mass, cost, performance and risk, the system requirements must be understood and traded against each other as early as the conceptual design phase. Depending on the project phase and the goals of the risk analysis, various PRA methodologies could be used to produce quantitative risk estimates to enable such a process. In order to better understand the applicability, advantages, and limitations of various PRA methodologies, a comparative analysis of three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches was performed. The three methods examined are a traditional static fault tree, a fault tree hybrid, and a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation. Each approach was used to assess a generic reaction control system (RCS) thruster pod and mission. The methods are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to the different phases of system development.

Probablistic↗

Analytical Modeling of Biomass Transport and Feeding Systems

The processing of biomass solids in a biorefinery consists of pretreatment, enzyme hydrolysis / concurrent fermentation of sugars to ethanol, product recovery, and drying. Sustainable operation requires a front end that transforms wet solids into a pumpable slurry. Otherwise the biorefinery will suffer unscheduled shut-downs and inefficient operation due to solids that obstruct pumps and other equipment and resist mixing in a bioreactor. Downtime in pioneer biorefineries due to interruptions from materials handling problems has been 50% or more, leading to unsustainable manufacturing processes. This work addresses new technology, predictive computational models, and definition of operational conditions that result in formation of slurries of corn stover at up to 300 g/L using low enzyme loadings (1 to 3 FPU cellulase/g) before the biomass (corn stover) enters the pretreatment step. A team of researchers from Purdue University, Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Forest Concepts, AdvanceBio, Argonne National Laboratory, and DOE BETO have combined their knowledge in agricultural and biological engineering, bioprocess engineering, mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, agricultural economics, materials engineering and enzyme and microbial technology to address the challenge of making lignocellulose flow. This team effort has resulted in the development and validation of conditions that employ low levels of commercial enzyme in an agitated bioreactor to which corn stover pellets are added resulting in formation of slurries at high solids loadings, before pretreatment. This approach overcomes challenges caused by handling of dry, particulate biomass materials at the front end of the biorefinery. The subsequent materials handling issues cause obstruction at pumps, pipes and valves. Formation of high loadings slurries with low yield stress, as reported here, significantly decreases the potential for process interruption and enhances plant operability. Key advances in the knowledge of how slurry formation occurs is reported here and in recently published journal papers. We found that pellets are needed to achieve high solids loading, and that commercial enzymes are effective in forming slurries of corn stover particles from pellets that have not been pretreated. Our work has resulted in models that predict solids behavior for formation of compressed solids and pellets that in turn facilitate slurries made of high concentrations of corn stover particles. A computational model was developed that gives mechanistic insights into properties of particles and mixing process that gives the slurry rheology needed to facilitate pumping. Hence, the corn stover may be pumped into a pretreatment reactor in place of auguring in solids against high pressure which is a root cause of interruptions at the front end of a biorefinery. Subsequent mixing in enzyme and microbial bioreactors results in conversion of lignocellulose to sugars in a biorefinery in agitated bioreactors, with flows in and out of the vessels being less likely to be interrupted due to plugging or materials handling problems. The obtained data coupled to process models, techno-economic assessment (TEA) and Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) were used to assess whether this approach is practical. These results are based on a foundation of laboratory characterization and pilot runs. The NREL biochemical sugar model was utilized to carry out techno-economic analysis of enzyme catalyzed liquefaction followed by enzyme hydrolysis. The minimum sugar selling price was between 17.5 and 18.3 ¢/pound or about the same as calculated by the NREL model for dilute acid pretreatment followed by enzyme hydrolysis. Life cycle analysis (LCA) based on Argonne’s Greet Model showed the enzyme catalyzed route had the lowest greenhouse gas emissions of the three combinations studied (i.e., enzyme, enzyme mimetic, and enzyme + mimetic combined). GHG emissions for enzyme-based corn stover liquefaction step, alone, were about 21 g CO 2 -equivalent/kg of liquefied slurry. We believe this approach will further enhance operability of a pioneer biorefinery, and bring large-scale conversion of lignocellulosic biomass to low carbon footprint biofuels closer to implementation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

Yackovetsky, Robert↗

Automated Classification of Thermal Infrared Spectra Using Self-organizing Maps

Existing and planned space missions to a variety of planetary and satellite surfaces produce an ever increasing volume of spectral data. Understanding the scientific informational content in this large data volume is a daunting task. Fortunately various statistical approaches are available to assess such data sets. Here we discuss an automated classification scheme based on Kohonen Self-organizing maps (SOM) we have developed. The SUM process produces an output layer were spectra having similar properties lie in close proximity to each other. One major effort is partitioning this output layer into appropriate regions. This is prefonned by defining dosed regions based upon the strength of the boundaries between adjacent cells in the SOM output layer. We use the Davies-Bouldin index as a measure of the inter-class similarities and intra-class dissimilarities that determines the optimum partition of the output layer, and hence number of SOM clusters. This allows us to identify the natural number of clusters formed from the spectral data. Mineral spectral libraries prepared at Arizona State University (ASU) and John Hopkins University (JHU) are used to test and evaluate the classification scheme. We label the library sample spectra in a hierarchical scheme with class, subclass, and mineral group names. We use a portion of the spectra to train the SOM, i.e. produce the output layer, while the remaining spectra are used to test the SOM. The test spectra are presented to the SOM output layer and assigned membership to the appropriate cluster. We then evaluate these assignments to assess the scientific meaning and accuracy of the derived SOM classes as they relate to the labels. We demonstrate that unsupervised classification by SOMs can be a useful component in autonomous systems designed to identify mineral species from reflectance and emissivity spectra in the therrnal IR.

Roush, Ted L.↗

The NASA land processes program - Status and future directions

For most of the past decade, NASA focused its efforts on the immediate exploitation of space-based sensors in earth-oriented programs. After an assessment of the current situation with respect to the conducted programs, NASA has restructured its earth-oriented programs to concentrate on the scientific use of its satellites while other agencies and private enterprise have assumed responsibility for programs of interest to them. In making this change of direction, NASA has conducted a series of studies to obtain information as a basis for its planning activities regarding future programs. Attention is given to a plan for Land Global Habitability, the development of a basic structure for the land program, a program plan for global biology, and a study on the role of biochemical cycles. The three major facets of the land processes program are discussed along with some examples of current work.

Murphy, R. E.↗

Evaluating Lunar Water Processing System Model Configurations for Small Scale Oxygen and Hydrogen Production Within JAXA'S ISRU Technology

Introduction: In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) refers to novel methods of extracting and processing local resources for use in life support and propulsion systems, reducing or eliminating the required consumables to be transferred from Earth. Current estimates of water-ice availability embedded in regolith within the Moon’s permanently shadowed regions (PSR’s) range between 1-5% by weight. However, the composition and characteristics of the “wet” regolith is unknown. Alternate ISRU excavation techniques and Concept of Operations (ConOps) must be explored to optimize surface system operations based on these factors. To assess the feasibility of different ISRU subsystem technologies and compare system architecture configurations, an interchangeable system model was generated to incorporate technologies spanning excavation of raw materials to storage of products and determine optimal arrangement of total system processing needs. Total Mass, Volume, and Power (M/V/P) requirements were computed for 168 design iterations of this water processing plant. System Model: In FY24, the System Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) team developed a lunar water processing system model using the Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) to estimate the M/V/P for ISRU subsystems operating under a wide range of Hydrogen (H2) and Oxygen (O2) production targets for the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) [1]. Based on Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) surface operational requirements, this system architecture was modified to include the ability to excavate consolidated icy regolith (versus granular ice excavation using Kennedy Space Center’s (KSC) ISRU Pilot Excavator, IPEx) and explore the feasibility of processing the lunar water both inside and outside of the PSR. For the consolidated icy regolith case study, excavation was performed via a mobility transport chassis outfitted with The Regolith Ice Drill for Exploring New Terrain (TRIDENT) for drilling [2] and the Cold Operable Lunar Deployable Arm (COLDArm) [3] for regolith transfer. The system model determines the required rover and payload. M/V/P to handle the required regolith processing rates. The regolith is then sorted and heated to sublimate the ice (via an auger dryer). The exiting high temperature, low pressure vapor is cleaned of volatiles (via cold trap) and electrolyzed to produce H2 and O2. These products are then dried, liquified with 20 K and 90 K cryocoolers (for H2 and O2, respectively), and stored in cylindrical tanks. Study Goals: Due to the different ConOps options of regolith transport to the ridge for processing versus processing it directly inside the PSR, as well as the unknown regolith/water-ice composition, new excavation techniques and their power configurations are being evaluated within a ISRU system architecture for production targets less than NASA’s pilot plant (1 mT). This analysis investigates the feasibility of numerous excavation techniques, power architectures, and logistical operations and determines an optimal system configuration with regards to M/V/P. It aims to investigate which parameters, both locally and globally, have the greatest effect on each subsystem within the plant. This can be used to identify the most critical components of the plant, and guide future decisions on allocating funding for research and development. The results from this study may provide subsystem developers with appropriate interfaces with excavation subsystems and downstream processes, and assessing the overall feasibility of each excavation technique, power architecture, and logistical timeframe. References: [1] Carlson, A. et. al. (2024) ICES. [2] Zacny, K., et. al. (2024) “ASCE Earth and Space”. [3] McCormick, R., et. Al. (2024) IEEE Xplore.

ISRU↗