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At least 433 records · Page 24

Prospects for Nuclear Electric Propulsion Using Closed-Cycle Magnetohydrodynamic Energy Conversion

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) has long been recognized as a major enabling technology for scientific and human exploration of the solar system, and it may conceivably form the basis of a cost-effective space transportation system suitable for space commerce. The chief technical obstacles to realizing this vision are the development of efficient, high-power (megawatt-class) electric thrusters and the development of low specific mass (less than 1 kg/kWe) power plants. Furthermore, comprehensive system analyses of multimegawatt class NEP systems are needed in order to critically assess mission capability and cost attributes. This Technical Publication addresses some of these concerns through a systematic examination of multimegawatt space power installations in which a gas-cooled nuclear reactor is used to drive a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) generator in a closed-loop Brayton cycle. The primary motivation for considering MHD energy conversion is the ability to transfer energy out of a gas that is simply too hot for contact with any solid material. This has several intrinsic advantages including the ability to achieve high thermal efficiency and power density and the ability to reject heat at elevated temperatures. These attributes lead to a reduction in system specific mass below that obtainable with turbine-based systems, which have definite solid temperature limits for reliable operation. Here, the results of a thermodynamic cycle analysis are placed in context with a preliminary system analysis in order to converge on a design space that optimizes performance while remaining clearly within established bounds of engineering feasibility. MHD technology issues are discussed including the conceptual design of a nonequilibrium disk generator and opportunities for exploiting neutron-induced ionization mechanisms as a means of increasing electrical conductivity and enhancing performance and reliability. The results are then used to make a cursory examination of piloted Mars missions during the 2018 opportunity.

Litchford, R. J.↗

A Prospective Method for Predicting Coronal Mass Ejections From Vector Magnetograms

Two quantitative measures of the global nonpotentiality of predominantly bipolar active regions are explored for their usefulness as indicators of whether an active region is likely to produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The two measures, length of strong-field strong-shear main neutral line (Lss) and global net current (IN), are obtained directly from vector magnetograms of the regions. From measurements of Lss and IN in four active regions for which the global nonpotentiality and CME productivity are assessed independently of Lss and IN, it appears that Lss and IN are each a useful indicator of an active region's likely CME productivity. The results also suggest that Lss and IN may be more reliable predictors of the CME productivity of active regions than is the presence or absence of sigmoidal structure in coronal X-ray images of the regions and that there might be threshold values of Lss and IN above which CME production is likely and below which CME production is unlikely. While these results need to be certified by an expansion of this pilot study to more active regions, they show the promise of Lss and IN as quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality for CME prediction.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Magnetized Target Fusion: Prospects for Low-Cost Fusion Energy

Magnetized Target Fusion (MTF) has attracted renewed interest in recent years because it has the potential to resolve one of the major problems with conventional fusion energy research - the high cost of facilities to do experiments and in general develop practical fusion energy. The requirement for costly facilities can be traced to fundamental constraints. The Lawson condition implies large system size in the case of conventional magnetic confinement, or large heating power in the case of conventional inertial confinement. The MTF approach is to use much higher fuel density than with conventional magnetic confinement (corresponding to megabar pressures), which results in a much-reduced system size to achieve Lawson conditions. Intrinsically the system must be pulsed because the pressures exceed the strength of any known material. To facilitate heating the fuel (or "target") to thermonuclear conditions with a high-power high-intensity source of energy, magnetic fields are used to insulate the high-pressure fuel from material surroundings (thus "magnetized target"). Because of magnetic insulation, the required heating power intensity is reduced by many orders of magnitude compared to conventional inertial fusion, even with relatively poor energy confinement in the magnetic field, such as that characterized by Bohm diffusion. In this paper we show semi-quantitatively why MTF-should allow fusion energy production without costly facilities within the same generally accepted physical constraints used for conventional magnetic and inertial fusion. We also briefly discuss potential applications of this technology ranging from nuclear rockets for space propulsion to a practical commercial energy system. Finally, we report on the exploratory research underway, and the interesting physics issues that arise in the MTF regime of parameters. Experiments at Los Alamos are focused on formation of a suitable plasma target for compression, utilizing the knowledge base for compact toroids called Field-Reversed Configurations. As reported earlier, it appears that the existing pulsed-power Shiva Star facility at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Albuquerque, NM can satisfy the heating requirements by means of imploding a thin metal cylinder (called a "liner") surrounding an FRC of the type presently being developed. The proposed next step is an integrated liner-on-plasma experiment in which an FRC would be heated to 10 keV by the imploding liner.

Siemon, Richard E.↗

Artificial Cells: Prospects for Biotechnology

A variety of techniques can now be used to alter the genome of a cell. Although these techniques are very powerful, they also have limitations related to cost and efficiency of scale. Artificial cells designed for specific applications combine properties of biological systems such as nano-scale efficiency, self-organization and adaptability at relatively low cost. Individual components needed for such structures have already been developed, and now the main challenge is to integrate them in functional microscopic compartments. It will then become possible to design and construct communities of artificial cells that can perform different tasks related to therapeutic and diagnostic applications.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

MOLA 1064nm Radiometry Measurements: Status and Prospects in Extended Mission

The Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA) instrument has measured the brightness of the Mars surface at 1064 nm in a passive mode, from background noise counts, since 1997. After ceasing altimetry collection July 2001, MOLA has taken >50 million high-resolution radiometer observations. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Neumann, G. A.↗

Remote Sensing in Geography in the New Millennium: Prospects, Challenges and Opportunities

As noted in the first edition of Geography in America, the term remote sensing was coined in the early 1960's by geographers to describe the process of obtaining data by use of both photographic and nonphotographic instruments. Although this is still a working definition today, a more explicit and updated definition as it relates to geography can be phrased as: "remote sensing is the science, art, and technology of identifying, characterizing, measuring, and mapping of Earth surface, and near earth surface, phenomena from some position above using photographic or nonphotographic instruments." Both patterns and processes may be the object of investigation using remote sensing data. The science dimension of geographic remote sensing is rooted in the fact that: a) it is dealing with primary data, wherein the investigator must have an understanding of the environmental phenomena under scrutiny, and b) the investigator must understand something of the physics of the energy involved in the sensing instrument and the atmospheric pathway through which the energy passes from the energy source, to the Earth object to the sensor.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Understanding the Global Water and Energy Cycle Through Assimilation of Precipitation-Related Observations: Lessons from TRMM and Prospects for GPM

Understanding the Earth's climate and how it responds to climate perturbations relies on what we know about how atmospheric moisture, clouds, latent heating, and the large-scale circulation vary with changing climatic conditions. The physical process that links these key climate elements is precipitation. Improving the fidelity of precipitation-related fields in global analyses is essential for gaining a better understanding of the global water and energy cycle. In recent years, research and operational use of precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have shown the tremendous potential of using these data to improve global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. We will give an overview of the benefits of assimilating TRMM and SSM/I rain rates and discuss developmental strategies for using space-based rainfall and rainfall-related observations to improve forecast models and climate datasets in preparation for the proposed multi-national Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

Hou, Arthur↗

Science Prospects from the STEREO Mission

The solar magnetic field is constantly generated beneath the surface of the Sun by the solar dynamo. To balance this flux generation, there is constant dissipation of magnetic flux at and above the solar surface. The largest phenomenon associated with this dissipation is the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has provided remarkable views of the corona and CMEs, and served to highlight how these large interplanetary disturbances can have terrestrial consequences. STEREO is the next logical step to study the physics of CME origin, propagation, and terrestrial effects. Two spacecraft with identical instrument complements will be launched on a single launch vehicle in November 2007. One spacecraft will drift ahead and the second behind the Earth at a separation rate of 22 degrees per year. Observation from these two vantage points will for the first time allow the observation of the three-dimensional structure of CMEs and the coronal structures where they originate. Each STEREO spacecraft carries a complement of 10 instruments, which include (for the first time) an extensive set of BOTH remote sensing and in-situ instruments. The remote sensing suite is capable of imaging CMEs from the solar surface out to beyond Earth's orbit (1 AU), and in-situ instruments are able to measure distribution functions for electrons, protons, and ions over a broad energy range, from the normal thermal solar in wind plasma to the most energetic solar particles. It is anticipated that these studies will ultimately lead to an increased understanding, of the CME process and eventually to the ability to predict CME occurrence and thereby 'forecast' the condition of the near-Earth environment.

Davila, Joseph M.↗

Imaging Forming Planetary Systems: The HST/STIS Legacy and Prospects for Future Missions

The first indication that debris and protoplanetary disks associated with other, young planetary systems were sufficiently nearby to image came with the IRAS detection of infrared excesses around $\beta$ Pic, Vega, Fomalhaut, and $\epsilon$ Eri. Moving beyond analysis of the infrared excess to optical and near-IR imaging requires access to high Strehl ratio and high contrast imaging techniques, with the ability to efficiently reject the residual scattered and diffracted light from the star to reveal the fainter scattered light and circumstellar emission originating from the vicinity of the star. HST/STIS imaging studies have made use of incomplete Lyot coronagraphic imaging modes to reveal the warped, inner disk of $\beta$ Pic, provide the highest spatial resolution images of young debris disk systems such as HR 4796A, have revealed the presence of azimuthally symmetric structure in HD 141569 and HD 163296, and have demonstrated that currently active, collimated outflows survive to higher stellar masses than previously expected, and through more of the star's pre-main sequence lifetime than anticipated. The HST/STIS coronagraphic imaging legacy will be discussed, together with the implications for future NIR and optical high contrast imaging capabilities.

Grady, Carol↗

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Time-Variable Gravity from Space: Quarter Century of Observations, Mysteries, and Prospects

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Via the space geodetic technique of satellite-laser ranging in the last quarter century, the Earth's dynamic oblateness J2 (the lowest-degree harmonic component of the gravity field) has been observed to undergo a slight decrease -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which has continued to date. The secular decrease in J2 has long been attributed primarily to the post-glacial rebound in the mantle; the present increase signifies an even larger change in global mass distribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound, at least over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the ocean water distribution, especially in the extratropical Pacific basins, that may be responsible for this J2 change. New techniques based on satellite-to-satellite tracking will yield greatly improved observations for time-variable gravity, with much higher precision and spatial resolution (i.e., much higher harmonic degrees). The most important example is the GRACE mission launched in March 2002, following the success of the CHAMP mission. In addition, although less precise than GRACE, the GPS/Meteorology constellation mission COSMIC, with 6 mini-satellites to be launched in late 2005, is expected to provide continued and complementary time-variable gravity observations. Such observations are becoming a new and powerful tool for remote sensing of geophysical fluid processes that involve larger-scale mass transports.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

On the Prospects of Measuring the Cosmic History of Element Synthesis with Future Far-IR/Submillimeter Observatories

To understand the cosmic history of element synthesis it will be important to obtain extinction-free measures of the heavy element contents of high-redshift objects and to chart two monumental events: the collapse of the first metal-free clouds to form stars, and the initial seeding of the universe with dust. The information needed to achieve these objectives is uniquely available in the far-infrared/submillimeter (FIR/SMM) spectral region. Following the Decadal Report and anticipating the development of the Single Aperature Far-IR (SAFIR) telescope capabilities of a large-aperature, background-limited FIR/SMM observatory and an interferometer on a boom, and discuss how such instruments could be used to measure the element synthesis history of the universe.

Leisawitz, David↗

Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Atmospheric Electrical Activity and the Prospects for Improving Short-Term, Weather Forcasting

How might lightning measurements be used to improve short-term (0-24 hr) weather forecasting? We examine this question under two different prediction strategies. These include integration of lightning data into short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of convective (including severe) weather hazards and the assimilation of lightning data into cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction models. In each strategy we define specific metrics of forecast improvement and a progress assessment. We also address the conventional observing system deficiencies and potential gap-filling information that can be addressed through the use of the lightning measurement.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

On the Determination of Local Sites for Shallow Ground Water Prospection Using Low Frequency Sounding Radars on Mars

Low frequency sounding radars should be able to probe the Martian subsurface layers down to varying depths, depending on the geo-electrical properties of the sounded sites. We present in this work four frequency dependent geo-electrical models of the Martian subsurface in the 1-20 MHz frequency band, based on laboratory electromagnetic characterization of Martian soil analogues. Those models correspond to local Martian sites, where we considered particular interest for the search of water using mainly the Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) instrument of the Netlander mission. Results and discussion are also valid for both sounding experiments MARSIS and SHARAD. The four models of the Martian subsurface are designed to represent terrains where recent fluvial like features suggest the presence of near subsurface ground ice and probably liquid water. We performed measurements on volcanic and sedimentary materials that may be present on these sites under the appropriate geophysical conditions that may exist in those terrains. We then simulated the backscattered radar echo arising from each site in the 2 MHz frequency band, using the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) algorithm, in order to evaluate the instrument performances to probe the subsurface stratigraphy of each site. Our results confirm that the near subsurface rich iron oxide mineralogy controls the instrument performances in terms of penetration depth and signal to noise ratio in the 2 MHz frequency band. We also discuss the geophysical and geo-electrical sounding conditions that could lead to an ambiguous detection of shallow subsurface water on Mars for the Netlander GPR. Finally we hope to present by the conference time a terrestrial test analogue site selected according to those creteria where deep sub-surface water have been detected 600 m deep using a prototype of the 2 MHz Netlander GPR in a field survey performed last febrary in the eastern part of the Egyptian desert.

Heggy, E.↗

Submillimeter and Far Infrared Experiment for SOFIA (SAFIRE): Progress and Prospects

SAFIRE/SOFIA is a versatile imaging Fabry-Perot spectrograph covering 100 less than lambda less than 655 microns, with spectral resolving power of approx. l0(exp 3). Selected as a "PI" instrument for the airborne Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA), SAFIRE will apply two dimensional pop-up bolometer arrays to provide background limited imaging spectrometry. We describe the instrument design, its application to a range of astro- physical investigations, and current progress and results in the innovative detector and instrument design. SAFIRE/SOFIA is on track for availability in 2006.

Shafer, R. A.↗

Prospecting Jupiter in the Thermal Infrared: Temperatures and Dynamics

We present for the first time detailed maps of charged temperatures and winds in Jupiter's stratosphere, from infrared spectra acquired during the Cassini swingby of Jupiter. The maps reveal a high-altitude equatorial jet 1140 m s-', as strong as the cloud-top winds. It may result from wave forcing and be analogous to the quasi-biennial oscillation in the earth's stratosphere. The maps give the best characterization of the motions of stratospheric waves, and they better define the vertical penetration of the auroral hot spots into the stratosphere.

Flasar, F. M.↗