A new method to evaluate, optimize, and forecast human and robot performance in 21st century space operations
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human robot performance evaluation methods↗
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Single-column Model Intercomparison for a Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer
The parameterization of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer is a difficult issue, which has a large impact on the medium-range weather forecasts and on climate integrations. A non-strongly stratified arctic case is simulated by nineteen single-column turbulence schemes. The statistics from the Large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison made for the same case by eight different models are used as a guiding reference. The single-column parameterizations include research schemes and operational schemes from major forecast and climate research centres. First order schemes, a large number of turbulence kinetic energy closures, and other proposals have submitted results. There is a large spread in the results; in general, the operational schemes mix more efficiently than the research ones, and the TKE and other higher order closures give results closer to the LES statistics. The sensitivities of the schemes to the parameters of their turbulence closures are partially explored.
Cuxart, J.↗
Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)
Peak wind speed is important element in 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS). Forecasts issued for planning operations at KSC/CCAFS. 45 WS wind advisories issued for wind gusts greater than or equal to 25 kt. 35 kt and 50 kt from surface to 300 ft. AMU developed cool-season (Oct - Apr) tool to help 45 WS forecast: daily peak wind speed, 5-minute average speed at time of peak wind, and probability peak speed greater than or equal to 25 kt, 35 kt, 50 kt. AMU tool also forecasts daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft. Phase I and II tools delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). Phase II tool also delivered as Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) GUI. Phase I and II forecast methods were compared to climatology, 45 WS wind advisories and North American Mesoscale model (MesoNAM) forecasts in a verification data set.
Barrett, Joe H., III↗
An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability
Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al. 2011) to monitor lightning trends and to anticipate/forecast severe weather (hail > or =2.5 cm, winds > or =25 m/s, tornadoes). The result will be a time-continuous algorithm that uses GOES satellite, radar fields, and HRRR model fields to nowcast first-flash LI and QL, and subsequently monitors lightning trends on a perstorm basis within the LJ algorithm for possible severe weather occurrence out to > or =3 hours. The LI-QL-LJ product will also help prepare the operational forecast community for Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data expected in late 2015, as these data are monitored for ongoing convective storms. The LI-QL-LJ product will first predict where new lightning is highly probable using GOES imagery of developing cumulus clouds, followed by n analysis of NWS (dual-polarization) radar indicators (reflectivity at the -10 C altitude) of lightning occurrence, to increase confidence that LI is immanent. Once lightning is observed, time-continuous lightning mapping array and Pseudo-GLM observations will be analyzed to assess trends and the severe weather threat as identified by trends in lightning (i.e. LJs). Additionally, 5- and 15-min GOES imagery will then be evaluated on a per-storm basis for overshooting and other cloud-top features known to be associated with severe storms. For the processing framework, the GOES-R 0-1 hour convective initiation algorithm's output will be developed within the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) tracking tool, and merged with radar and lightning (LMA/Psuedo-GLM) datasets for active storms. The initial focus of system development will be over North Alabama for select lightning-active days in summer 2014, yet will be formed in an expandable manner. The lightning alert tool will also be developed in concert with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to meet their needs for real-time, accurate first-flash LI and timing, as well as anticipated lightning trends, amounts, continuation and cessation, so to provide key situational awareness and decision support information. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center will provide important logistical and collaborative support and training, involving interactions with the NWS and broader user community.
Mecikalski, John↗
Land-Breeze Forecasting
The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.
Case, Jonathan L.↗
Global crop production forecasting - A simulation analysis of the data system problems and their solutions
Alternative data systems for a global crop production forecasting system were studied with the aid of a unique simulation facility called the Data System Dynamic Simulator (DSDS). Information system requirements were determined and compared with existing and planned data systems, and deficiencies were identified and analyzed. A first step was to determine the data load for an operational global crop production forecasting system as a function of data frequency, crop types, biophases, cloud coverage, and number of satellites. The DSDS was used to correlate the interrelated influence of orbital parameters, crop calendars, and cloud conditions to generate global data loading profiles. Some of the more important conclusions and the main features of the simulation system are presented.
Golden, H.↗
Near-real-time TOMS, telecommunications and meteorological support for the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment
The goal of the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment was to improve the understanding of the mechanisms involved in the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole. Total ozone data taken by the Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) played a central role in the successful outcome of the experiment. During the experiment, the near-real-time TOMS total ozone observations were supplied within hours of real time to the operations center in Punta Arenas, Chile. The final report summarizes the role which Research and Data Systems (RDS) Corporation played in the support of the experiment. The RDS provided telecommunications to support the science and operations efforts for the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment, and supplied near real-time weather information to ensure flight and crew safety; designed and installed the telecommunications network to link NASA-GSFC, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), Palmer Station, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to the operation at Punta Arenas; engineered and installed stations and other stand-alone systems to collect data from designated low-orbiting polar satellites and beacons; provided analyses of Nimbus-7 TOMS data and backup data products to Punta Arenas; and provided synoptic meteorological data analysis and reduction.
Ardanuy, P.↗
MODIS Data in AWIPS: A Precursor of NPOESS and GOES-R Capabilities
MODIS data from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites are being sent to several NWS Forecast Offices in real time to assist in the preparation of short-term weather forecasts. The MODIS imagery, in channels similar to those of the planned GOES-R instrument, is reformatted, sectorized, and ingested directly in Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). A number of products derived from the imagery are available in near real-time as well. This transition activity, from research to operations, serves to prepare forecasters for the next generation satellite observing capabilities through real-time, hands on applications to their forecast problems. The presentation will provide examples of this transition activity and a preliminary assessment on the utility of several of the MODIS products for improving short-term forecasts.
Jedlovec, Gary↗
Review of Solar Energetic Particle Models
Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.
Kathryn Whitman↗
Meteor Shower Forecasting in Near-Earth Space
NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) produces an annual meteor shower forecast in order to help spacecraft operators assess the risk posed by meteoroid streams. Previously, this forecast focused on the International Space Station and therefore reported meteoroid fluxes and enhancement factors at an orbital altitude of 400 km. This paper presents an updated forecast algorithm that has an improved calculation of the flux enhancement produced by showers and can calculate fluxes at any selected Earth or lunar orbital altitude. Finally, we discuss and generate forecasted fluxes for the 2018 Draconid meteor shower, which is expected to produce meteoroid flux enhancements near the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points but not at Earth.
Althea V Moorhead↗
Use of Forecast Atmosphere for Earth Entry, Descent, and Landing Modeling
Flight mechanics simulations are used to characterize the performance of Earth entry, descent, and landing vehicles. Atmospheric prediction models are often a key component of these simulations. Global atmospheric models are used for both engineering design due to their ability to define atmospheric properties over a large swath of locations and times as well as used for the availability of atmospheric uncertainties in the models that can be used in statistical performance analysis. However for day-of-flight operations, the use of forecast atmospheres based on more current measurements are beneficial to the accuracy of the performance prediction, including landing locations. Reanalysis of these forecasts can also be used for post-flight analysis, including trajectory reconstruction. This paper describes how forecast atmospheres can be beneficial for Earth entry, descent, and landing analysis and ways these models can be implemented in simulations.
Soumyo Dutta↗
NASA SPoRT Suite of Legacy and Current Satellite Products in Support of Tropical Analysis and Forecasting
The NASA Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short-term forecasting issues. SPoRT has applied data and capabilities from a variety of research-oriented missions to improve the operational analysis and short-term forecasting of the tropical environment and tropical cyclones(TC).Toward researching new products, SPoRT is examining the diurnal cycle of TC intensity by observing changes in precipitation, winds, and midlevel moisture, including the use of NUCAPS soundings to assess the moisture and temperature environment around TCs, as well as examining changes in sounding profiles associated with the TC diurnal cycle. SPoRT has developed capabilities to analyze the evolution and diurnal cycle of GPM/IMERG rain rates and GLM lightning characteristics associated with TC, by compass and up-/down-shear quadrants relative to the cyclone center. As Early Adopters in the Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, SPoRT is also in the process of developing new experimental products utilizing TROPICS data. Furthermore, SPoRT is investigating the relationship between TC intensity and lightning flash size and optical energy. MSFC hosts a GOES ground rebroadcast station which enables the potential for very low latency GLM products. These products provide the ability to monitor tropical regions/systems in data-void oceanic regions and to fill the gaps in traditional observational systems. SPoRT seeks to expand our collaborations with operational centers and other stakeholders to provide new tools to aid in tropical analysis and forecasting.
satellite remote sensing↗
An Evaluation of the Accuracy of Meteor Shower Forecasts
Brought into being by the recent Leonid meteor storms, meteor shower forecasts are now regarded by many spacecraft projects as necessary inputs into the planning of spacecraft operations. We compare the shower forecasts made by various researchers over the past six years to actual shower observations in an attempt to create an overall picture of forecast accuracy, specifically focusing on the three aspects most important to space vehicles: 1) the time of shower maximum, 2) the half-width (duration), and 3) the maximum Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR). It will be noted that, while the times of maxima are generally predicted to within several minutes, the peak ZHRs are often overestimated and shower half-widths are frequently not even calculated. The difficulties involved in converting shower ZHRs into the meteoroid fluxes needed to assess spacecraft risk are also discussed.
Cooke, W.↗
Exploration of OMI Products for Air Quality Applications Through Comparisons with Models and Observations
The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA s Aura satellite was launched in July 2004, and is now providing daily global observations of total column ozone, NO2, and SO2, as well as aerosol information. Algorithms have also been developed to produce daily tropospheric ozone and NO2 products. The tropospheric ozone product reported here is a tropospheric residual computed through use of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone profile data to quantify stratospheric ozone. We are investigating the applicability of OMI products for use in air quality modeling, forecasting, and analysis. These investigations include comparison of the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 products with global and regional models and with lower tropospheric aircraft observations. Large-scale transport of pollution seen in the OM1 tropospheric O3 data is compared with output from NASA's Global Modeling Initiative global chemistry and transport model. On the regional scale we compare the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 with fields from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Agency (NOAA/EPA) operational Eta/CMAQ air quality forecasting model over the eastern United States. This 12-km horizontal resolution model output is roughly of equivalent resolution to the OMI pixel data. Correlation analysis between lower tropospheric aircraft O3 profile data taken by the University of Maryland over the Mid-Atlantic States and OMI tropospheric column mean volume mixing ratio for O3 will be presented. These aircraft data are representative of the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, the region in which much of the locally-generated and regionally-transported ozone exists.
Pickering, K. E.↗
The Transition of NASA EOS Datasets to WFO Operations: A Model for Future Technology Transfer
The collocation of a National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office with atmospheric scientists from NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama has afforded a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. Specifically, the NWS office in Huntsville has interacted closely with research scientists within the SPORT (Short-term Prediction and Research and Transition) Center at MSFC. One significant technology transfer that has reaped dividends is the transition of unique NASA EOS polar orbiting datasets into NWS field operations. NWS forecasters primarily rely on the AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information and Processing System) decision support system for their day to day forecast and warning decision making. Unfortunately, the transition of data from operational polar orbiters or low inclination orbiting satellites into AWIPS has been relatively slow due to a variety of reasons. The ability to integrate these high resolution NASA datasets into operations has yielded several benefits. The MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer ) instrument flying on the Aqua and Terra satellites provides a broad spectrum of multispectral observations at resolutions as fine as 250m. Forecasters routinely utilize these datasets to locate fine lines, boundaries, smoke plumes, locations of fog or haze fields, and other mesoscale features. In addition, these important datasets have been transitioned to other WFOs for a variety of local uses. For instance, WFO Great Falls Montana utilizes the MODIS snow cover product for hydrologic planning purposes while several coastal offices utilize the output from the MODIS and AMSR-E instruments to supplement observations in the data sparse regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. In the short term, these datasets have benefited local WFOs in a variety of ways. In the longer term, the process by which these unique datasets were successfully transitioned to operations will benefit the planning and implementation of products and datasets derived from both NPP and NPOESS. This presentation will provide a brief overview of current WFO usage of satellite data, the transition of datasets between SPORT and the N W S , and lessons learned for future transition efforts.
Darden, C.↗
Perspectives on flood forecast-based early action and opportunities for Earth observations
This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.
disasters↗
Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data
The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) at Cape Canaveral Air-Force Station (CCAFS)ln Florida issues a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts. This information is used for general planning of operations at CCAFS and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). These facilities are located in east-central Florida at the east end of a corridor known as 'Lightning Alley', an indication that lightning has a large impact on space-lift operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data and an objective forecast tool developed over 30 years ago. The 45 WS requested that a new lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of more recent historical warm season (May-September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The resulting tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations, one for each month of the warm season, that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season.
Lambert, Winfred↗
Diagnosing Aircraft Icing Potential from Satellite Cloud Retrievals
The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.
Smith, William L., Jr.↗