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DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Status Report on the ART-GCR CMVB and CNWG International Collaborations

This work presents the numerical model for the high temperature test reactor (HTTR) loss of forced cooling (LOFC) experiment with the INL codes Griffin, BISON, and RELAP-7, based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. Promising results were obtained, with the overall behavior of the reactor successfully captured. Changes in the heat transfer coupling, as compared to the fiscal year (FY)-21 model, enabled drastic improvement of the steady-state solution, both in terms of computational time and global energy discrepancies. The former was reduced by a factor of roughly 60, whereas the latter decreased from 11% to less than 2%. Furthermore, the discrepancy in the steady-state multiplication factor was improved from +2,300 and +2,900 pcm (for the 30 and 9 MW cases) to -700 and +1,200 pcm, respectively, and now falls well within the large measurement uncertainties stemming from graphite impurities. Validation of the Monte Carlo model used to generate cross sections was also performed against available measurements. Though significant, the discrepancies remain acceptable overall in light of the large uncertainty. Numerous improvements are still needed to better compare with the experiment involving the 9 MW case and to instill greater confidence in the model’s ability to accurately predict the 30 MW behavior. Specifically, the power levels predicted by the 9 MW transient simulation following re-criticality remain low, pointing to an underestimation of the passive cooling of the core. A key aspect of future work will be to better understand the flow pattern during the LOFC event, particularly to determine if natural or forced convection is occurring inside the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). More generally, additional validation data would be immensely useful for further enhancing the numerical model and better matching the experiments. In addition, a more sophisticated thermal-hydraulics model that simulates all the channels as a single system model should be considered to take into account the rest of the primary loop. Finally, even if the results are in better agreement with the experiments, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification will be necessary to evaluate the model uncertainty.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Monte Carlo and Thermal Hydraulic Analysis using a Hybrid ETF-Corrected-Diffusion Prediction Block

This paper builds upon previous work to accelerate the Picard iteration (PI) method typically applied for coupled Monte Carlo-Thermal hydraulic (MC-TH) solutions. Previously, the use of the generalized transfer functions (GTFs) to predict variation in macroscopic cross sections following a perturbation in TH properties was demonstrated for a subset of simple 3D problems. In addition, the reduced-order transport prediction block relied on the first order perturbation (FOP) method, which was shown to have computational overheads. Recent work replaced the FOP block with a 1-group nodal diffusion solver to eliminate these overheads. While the use of diffusion is desirable for large-scale problems, the new solver introduces significant homogenization error. This work aims to address this issue by using the Jacobian-Free Newton Krylov (JFNK) method to generate a set of super homogenization (SPH) factors to improve the accuracy of the diffusion solution. The SPH factors will be used in conjunction with an improved cross section prediction method – the expanded transfer function (ETF) method – to produce a highly accurate flux prediction for an axial 1D boiling water reactor (BWR) pincell following a large perturbation in moderator density. The ETF-corrected diffusion (ETF-CD) block is shown to be highly accurate for the 1D test case. Future work will investigate the accuracy of the method for a realistic 3D pressurized water reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Steady-State System Package for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Analysis Using Multi-Dimensional Thermal Hydraulics and Dimensionless Turbopump Treatment

Nuclear thermal propulsion is an evolving technology that can be utilized for long-distance space travel. This technology yields the advantage of a high thrust and specific impulse, but requires an examination of the potential design adjustments necessary to enhance its feasibility. The development of nuclear thermal propulsion requires a comprehensive understanding of the system-level behavior during transient and steady-state operation. This paper extends our previous research by including the proper handling of turbomachinery with multi-channel thermal hydraulic simulations only for steady-state solutions. The system-level approach presented here enables the treatment of the turbopump components through non-dimensional analysis that eliminates the assumption of constant efficiencies. All the other components within the system (e.g., reflector and core) can be discretized to multiple channels and layers, in which the full thermal hydraulic solution is established. The approach chosen here enables the realistic modeling of the propellant flow within the expander cycle by capturing the pressure losses, mass flow rate splits, and enthalpy gain for various operational conditions. The verification of the package is completed through point comparisons of previous investigations into similar system designs. Furthermore, sensitivity studies are used to benchmark the capabilities of the package and investigate solution variations due to the perturbation of operational conditions and regimes. The sensitivity studies performed here are important to capture variation in flow characteristics (e.g., temperature, pressure, mass flow rates) for different design objectives such as the thrust and specific impulse. This work demonstrates that system-level simulations lacking multi-channel capability and proper turbomachinery treatment may yield higher uncertainties in understanding the engine’s response and characteristics to changing various requirements. This is extremely important when screening the design space of such propulsion systems and when transient simulations are required.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved multiphysics model of the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor for the simulation of loss-of-forced-cooling experiments

We present a multiphysics model of the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor for comparison with past and predict future loss-of-forced-cooling (LOFC) experiments. The approach selected combines (1) 3-D full-core superhomogenization-corrected neutronics, (2) 3-D full-core homogenized or semi-heterogeneous heat transfer (macroscale), (3) 2-D axisymmetric fuel rod heat transfer (mesoscale), and (4) 1-D thermal-hydraulics channels. Although large sensitivities remain and the available experimental data are insufficient for use in a rigorous validation exercise, the overall transient behavior is successfully reproduced. The novelty of our work includes (1) a new macroscale-mesoscale heat transfer coupling approach relying on gap conductance to drastically speed up numerical convergence by two orders of magnitude, (2) determination of a radial effective thermal conductivity that yields reasonably close results between the homogenized and semi-heterogeneous macroscale thermal models, and (3) a preliminary study of the reactor's early behavior following a LOFC event, thus enabling further assessment of numerical models against fission power measurements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning for Multigroup Cross-Section Representation in Two-Step Core Calculations

Here we investigate using deep learning, a type of machine-learning algorithm employing multiple layers of artificial neurons, for the mathematical representation of multigroup cross sections for use in the Griffin reactor multiphysics code for two-step deterministic neutronics calculations. A three-dimensional fuel element typical of a high-temperature gas reactor as well as a two-dimensional sodium-cooled fast reactor lattice are modeled using the Serpent Monte Carlo code, and multigroup macroscopic cross sections are generated for various state parameters to produce a training data set and a separate validation data set. A fully connected, feedforward neural network is trained using the open-source PyTorch machine-learning framework, and its accuracy is compared against the standard piecewise linear interpolation model. Additionally, we provide in this work a generic technique for propagating the cross-section model errors up to the k eff using sensitivity coefficients with the first-order uncertainty propagation rule. Quantifying the eigenvalue error due to the cross-section regression errors is especially practical for appropriately selecting the mathematical representation of the cross sections. We demonstrate that the artificial neural network model produces lower errors and therefore enables better accuracy relative to the piecewise linear model when the cross sections exhibit nonlinear dependencies; especially when a coarse grid is employed, where the errors can be halved by the artificial neural network. However, for linearly dependent multigroup cross sections as found for the sodium-cooled fast reactor case, a simpler linear regression outperforms deeper networks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptively remeshed multiphysical modeling of resistance forge welding with experimental validation of residual stress fields and measurement processes

Welding processes used in the production of pressure vessels impart residual stresses in the manufactured component. Computational modeling is critical to predicting these residual stress fields and understanding how they interact with notches and flaws to impact pressure vessel durability. Here, in this work, we present a finite element model for a resistance forge weld and validate it using laboratory measurements. Extensive microstructural changes, near-melt temperatures, and large localized deformations along the weld interface pose significant challenges to Lagrangian finite element modeling. The proposed modeling approach overcomes these roadblocks in order to provide a high-fidelity simulation that can predict the residual stress state in the manufactured pressure vessel; a rich microstructural constitutive model accounts for material recrystallization dynamics, a frictional-to-tied contact model is coordinated with the constitutive model to represent interfacial bonding, and adaptive remeshing is employed to alleviate severe mesh distortion. An interrupted-weld approach is applied to the simulation to facilitate comparison to displacement measures. Several techniques are employed for residual stress measurement in order to validate the finite element model: neutron diffraction, the contour method, and the slitting method. Model-measurement comparisons are supplemented with detailed simulations that reflect the configurations of the residual-stress measurement processes themselves. The model results show general agreement with experimental measurements, and we observe some similarities in the features around the weld region. Factors that contribute to model-measurement differences are identified. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of the model development and residual stress measurement strategies, including how to best leverage the efforts put forth here for other weld problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improvement and Verification of Online Cross Section Generation Capability of Griffin for TRISO-fueled Reactors

Griffin, a MOOSE-based reactor multiphysics code jointly developed by Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory under the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s NEAMS program, has pursued the development of an online multigroup cross section generation capability for a few years to enable high-fidelity, problem-dependent neutronics analyses of advanced thermal reactors. Recent advancements in Griffin’s online multigroup cross section generation capability have significantly improved the accuracy, robustness, and efficiency of self-shielding calculations for both prismatic and pebble-bed TRISO-fueled reactor applications. Key developments include a unified fuel self-shielding method applicable to both TRISO and annular compact/spherical shell fuel zone geometries; an advanced Dancoff Category-based Equivalence Theory using a bell function for non-fuel resonance treatment, achieving more than an order-of-magnitude speedup compared to the Tone method; an on-the-fly multigroup equivalence approach to mitigate group condensation errors; and a streaming correction method for pebble-bed homogenization. A proof-of-concept demonstration of on-the-fly group condensation with consistent P0 transport correction was also achieved. The method reproduced direct fine-group solutions with excellent accuracy (eigenvalue errors within 10 pcm and pin-power differences within 0.5%), but due to performance limitations of the current fixed-source solver, improvements to solver efficiency will be addressed in future work. Verification tests were performed on graphite-moderated TRISO-fueled two-dimensional core benchmark problems representing gas-cooled microreactors, heat pipe-cooled microreactors, gas-cooled pebble-bed reactors, and fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactors. Across all cases, Griffin showed excellent agreement with Serpent2 continuous energy Monte Carlo solutions: eigenvalue errors within 200 pcm, pin-power root-mean-square errors within 2%, and control rod and drum worth errors less than 2%. It should be noted that, for the benchmark problem, cross section generation contributed less than 3% of the total simulation times. These results demonstrate that Griffin’s online cross section generation capability delivers accurate and efficient reactor physics solutions across a wide spectrum of TRISO-fueled advanced reactor designs. With further improvements to the fine-group fixed-source solver and planned extensions to depletion, transients, and coupled neutron–gamma transport, Griffin will be well-positioned to become a powerful and comprehensive tool for advanced reactor analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Fuel-to-Coolant Heat Transfer During Reactivity-Initiated Accidents Using Tightly Coupled Thermal Hydraulics and Fuel Thermomechanics

The reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is a complex scenario with several tightly interacting physical phenomena. Accurately predicting fuel behavior during these transients is difficult due to limitations in the modeling of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer. Common approaches to simulate RIAs involve standalone calculations using either a fuel performance code or a thermal-hydraulic code. The complex interdependencies of thermal-hydraulic and fuel mechanical behavior suggest that a tight coupling between these codes may provide more accurate predictions of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding mechanical response. Here, RELAP5-3D and BISON are coupled in this paper to simulate RIAs, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to rank key thermal properties and two-phase heat transfer parameters relevant for fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding failure mechanisms in UO 2 –Zircaloy-4 systems. Gas gap conductance, film boiling heat transfer uncertainty, pulse width, fuel-specific heat capacity, and cladding-specific heat capacity were identified as important parameters. Variations in figures of merit resulting from changes to pulse width and the material thermal properties indicate that time-dependent heat transfer rates are significant for safety-relevant mechanical parameters due to the time dependence of cladding ductility and pellet-cladding mechanical interaction loading. The results suggest that the thermal-hydraulic factors have a nonnegligible influence on the thermomechanical solution and vice versa. Tight coupling of both sets of physics is recommended to improve prediction of fuel behavior during RIAs. Highlights include the following: 1. The RELAP5-3D thermal-hydraulic code and the BISON fuel performance code are tightly coupled for simulation of RIA transients with energy depositions at the Zircaloy-4 cladding failure threshold. 2. Departure from nucleate boiling occurred for all simulated cases. Due to the ductility of fresh fuel, substantial ballooning occurred in most cases. 3. Gas gap conductance, fuel-specific heat capacity, cladding-specific heat capacity, transient pulse width, and film boiling heat transfer were the dominant thermal factors impacting the safety figures of merit at energy depositions.

Critical Heat Flux (CHF)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Initial study on cross-section generation requirements for a PBR equilibrium core

A Serpent model of the equilibrium core HTR-PM small modular nuclear reactor in China, was developed for use in cross-section preparation studies in order to guide methods development for the Griffin reactor multiphysics application. The model includes detailed isotopics for 10 distinct pebble burnup groups in 126 core zones with unique fuel and moderator temperatures obtained from a coupled neutronics-thermal-fluids equilibrium core calculation using Griffin-Pronghorn. A sensitivity study of the fuel and moderator temperatures for various core regions was performed with the MOOSE stochastic tools. The results show that the uncertainties are, not unexpectedly, dominated by the value of the fluid temperature and that the power level, heat transfer coefficient and effective conduction to neighboring pebbles and fluid constitute, at best, second order effects. The temperature uncertainty range varies from 28 K to 57 K between the core entry and exit planes, respectively, but these values are probably higher. We still have to quantify the significance of these uncertainties in the preparation of cross-sections in future work. In addition, we verified that the effective pebble approximation used in the PEBBED and V.S.O.P. computer codes works well for the preparation of region averaged cross-sections. Nevertheless, there are some discrepancies in the cross-sections when compared to the multi-pebble model, which could affect the prediction of peak values and the depletion calculation. We conclude that is highly desirable for future studies with Griffin to be able to handle both the 'effective' pebble approximation and the multi-pebble approach for various pebble burnup groups. This enables Griffin users with the flexibility to perform higher-fidelity studies. Finally, we initiated the preparation of cross-sections for various core regions from the full core Serpent reference model. We quantified the differences in 26 group cross-sections from infinite domain models versus the full core approach. These reference cross-sections will serve to verify the double heterogeneity, self-shielding, and spectrum-correction methods in Griffin. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗