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At least 433 records · Page 24

Clear-sky detection for PV degradation analysis using multiple regression

A method is presented to detect clear-sky periods for plane-of-array irradiance time-averaged data that is based on the algorithm originally described by Reno and Hansen. Here we show this new method improves the state-of-the-art by providing accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. Moreover, our new method detects clear periods in plane-of-array data, which is novel. The new method is developed by applying a Design of Experiment approach to optimize the parameters used in the Reno method, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to understand the robustness of the found parameters. Clear-sky detection accuracy is compared among four methods: the Reno method, the default clear-sky filter in RdTools, the Ellis method, and the method outlined in this work, using a hand-labeled two-year data set of 1-min plane-of-array irradiance for a fixed tilt system. The RdTools clear-sky filter is marred by excessive false positives. The other methods all perform well at 1-min data intervals; the method developed here provides more accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. We show that the parameters are directly linked to the data frequency in the hope that these input variables may not have to be optimized for every data frequency and location. However, only a single fixed system in one location was carefully examined. Finally, we illustrate how accurate determination of clear-sky conditions helps to eliminate data noise and bias in the assessment of long-term performance of PV plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multigroup Cross-section Generation in MCNP6.3 [Slides]

This presentation states that in comparison to the NJOY-produced multigroup cross sections, the MCNP-produced multigroup cross sections are generally consistent. Statistical uncertainties, however, are challenging and the unresolved resonance region may be looked at in the future. It also discusses how the SPM and LCS options were compared to each other for internal consistency. Additionally, some reactor pin-cell-like problems were used to compare to multigroup capabilities in other Monte Carlo codes (e.g., Serpent, OpenMC).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A promising intersection of excited‐state‐specific methods from quantum chemistry and quantum Monte Carlo

Abstract We present a discussion of recent progress in excited‐state‐specific quantum chemistry and quantum Monte Carlo alongside a demonstration of how a combination of methods from these two fields can offer reliably accurate excited state predictions across singly excited, doubly excited, and charge transfer states. Both of these fields have seen important advances supporting excited state simulation in recent years, including the introduction of more effective excited‐state‐specific optimization methods, improved handling of complicated wave function forms, and ways of explicitly balancing the quality of wave functions for ground and excited states. To emphasize the promise that exists at this intersection, we provide demonstrations using a combination of excited‐state‐specific complete active space self‐consistent field theory, selected configuration interaction, and state‐specific variance minimization. These demonstrations show that combining excited‐state‐specific quantum chemistry and variational Monte Carlo can be more reliably accurate than either equation of motion coupled cluster theory or multi‐reference perturbation theory, and that it can offer new clarity in cases where existing high‐level methods do not agree. This article is categorized under: Electronic Structure Theory > Ab Initio Electronic Structure Methods Software > Quantum Chemistry

Otis, Leon↗

Magnon heat transport in a two-dimensional Mott insulator

Whether or not anomalies in the thermal conductivity in insulating cuprates can be attributed to antiferromagnetic order and magnons in a 2D Mott insulator remains an intriguing open question. To shed light on this issue, we investigate the thermal conductivity $\kappa$ and its relationship with the specific heat $c_v$ in the half-filled 2D single-band Hubbard model, using the numerically exact determinant quantum Monte Carlo algorithm and maximum entropy analytic continuation. At low temperatures where the charge degrees of freedom are gapped-out and $c_v$ exhibits a clear magnon peak, we observe that thermal conductivity $\kappa$ also tends to form a peak at similar temperatures. Reducing temperature further produces a sharp upturn in $\kappa$, associated with an increasing mean-free path. Here we identify this as the high-temperature side of the anomalous peak in insulating cuprates, where the mean-free path eventually is cut-off by other scattering effects, including phonons, disorder, and physical size. Different scattering effects in our model are identified and analyzed in the thermal diffusivity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Search for the decay B s 0 → π 0 π 0 at Belle

We report the results of the first search for the decay B$^{0}_{s}$ → π 0 ⁢π 0 using 121.4 fb -1 of data collected at the Y⁡(5⁢S) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e + ⁢e - collider. We observe no signal and set a 90% confidence level upper limit of 7.7 ×10 -6 on the B$^{0}_{s}$ → π 0 π 0 decay branching fraction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Variance Reduction within Implicit Monte Carlo Thermal Radiation Transport using the Local Importance Function Transform [Slides]

System of equations derived by Fleck and Cummings to model time-dependent thermal radiative transfer (TRT) problems: Solution of radiation specific intensity (I), non-linearly coupled to material internal energy (U); Absorption and re-emission approximated by effective scattering events. Useful for high-energy density physics simulations: i.e., astrophysics, inertial confinement fusion (ICF). Whereas deterministic methods are fully discretized and free of statistical noise, Monte Carlo methods allow for dynamic sampling of the phase space at the price of statistical noise; Monte Carlo methods are also characterized by a slow $\frac{1}{√Ν}$ convergence rate.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Stochastic and mixed density functional theory within the projector augmented wave formalism for simulation of warm dense matter

Stochastic density functional theory (DFT) and mixed stochastic-deterministic DFT are burgeoning approaches for the calculation of the equation of state and transport properties in materials under extreme conditions. In the intermediate warm dense matter regime, a state between correlated condensed matter and kinetic plasma, electrons can range from being highly localized around nuclei to delocalized over the whole simulation cell. The plane-wave basis pseudopotential approach is thus the typical tool of choice for modeling such systems at the DFT level. Unfortunately, stochastic DFT methods scale as the square of the maximum plane-wave energy in this basis. To reduce the effect of this scaling and improve the overall description of the electrons within the pseudopotential approximation, we present stochastic and mixed DFT approaches developed and implemented within the projector augmented wave formalism. In conclusion, we compare results between the different DFT approaches for both single-point and molecular dynamics trajectories and present calculations of self-diffusion coefficients of solid density carbon from 1 to 50 eV.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Migration energy barriers and diffusion anisotropy of point defects on tungsten surfaces

We report tungsten is one of the most promising candidates for plasma-facing materials in future fusion devices, owing to its high performance under extreme irradiation conditions. However, irradiation-induced surface morphology varies significantly, depending on the irradiation type, fluence, and flux. Therefore, it is critical to examine the dynamics of point defects on tungsten (W) surfaces to understand how irradiation affects surface morphology. In this study, we employ the Self-Evolving Atomistic Kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) method to search for potential migration paths of point defects on W (1 0 0), (1 1 0) and (1 1 1) surfaces. The first-principles calculations are then used to accurately determine the migration energy barriers. The obtained paths and barriers are incorporated into a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to determine trajectories and diffusivities, which are described by diffusion tensors to demonstrate their anisotropic features. Multiple diffusion mechanisms have been identified on different surfaces, with various anisotropy factors. Particularly, point defects on the W (1 1 0) surface have the highest diffusivities, with anisotropy factors independent of temperatures. In comparison, the anisotropy of the W (1 0 0) surface decreases as temperature increases, while the W (1 1 1) surface is isotropic for point defects. This study provides insights into defect transport properties on different surfaces, which are essential for understanding the early stages of irradiation-induced microstructural evolutions and surface morphology of tungsten.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Calculating adsorption isotherms using the two-phase thermodynamic method and molecular dynamics simulations

We describe the calculation of adsorption isotherms from molecular dynamics simulations based on the two-phase thermodynamic (2PT) model. The 2PT model developed for bulk fluid phases treats the gas-like components as hard spheres (HSs), which correctly recovers the limiting behaviors of unconfined fluids. We showed that this treatment, however, does not always lead to the correct zero-loading behavior in strongly confining systems. For methane adsorption into zeolite MFI, the HS reference state underestimates entropy by up to 20% at low loadings and leads to an order-of-magnitude increase in the adsorption onset pressure. To fix these issues, we propose the use of ideal adsorbed gas (IAG) as the gas reference model, the properties of which can be computed using the Widom insertion method on an empty adsorbent. We further describe three routes to compute adsorption isotherms from the Helmholtz free energy at different loadings. Comparing against established Monte Carlo (MC) methods, we found that the adsorption isotherms obtained using the IAG reference state agrees to within 40%, which corresponds to deviations of <5% in adsorption free energy. The isotherms calculated using the HS reference state underestimate the adsorption uptake at low to medium loadings in strongly confining systems, but its accuracy improves at higher loadings and as the pore size increases relative to the sorbate diameter. The methods described here provide an alternative approach for computing adsorption isotherms when MC simulations in an open ensemble are undesirable and enable a direct comparison of computed adsorption thermodynamics with experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Maximum Likelihood Spectrum Decomposition for Isotope Identification and Quantification

A spectral decomposition method has been implemented to identify and quantify isotopic source terms in high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy in static geometry and shielding scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations were used to build the response matrix of a shielded high-purity germanium detector monitoring an effluent stream with a Marinelli configuration. The decomposition technique was applied to a series of calibration spectra taken with the detector using a multi-nuclide standard. These results are compared with decay-corrected values from the calibration certificate. For most nuclei in the standard ( 241 Am, 109 Cd, 137 Cs, and 60 Co), the deviations from the certificate values were generally no more than 6% with a few outliers as high as 10%. Furthermore, for 57 Co, the radionuclide with the lowest activity, the deviations from the standard reached as high as 25%, driven by the meager statistics in the calibration spectra. In addition, a complete treatment of error propagation for the technique is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Probabilistic Power Flow via Hybrid Multi-Surrogate Method

The risks associated with rare events threatening the security of power system operation are of paramount importance to power system planners and operators. To analyze the risks caused by high-impact, low-frequency rare events, an immensely large number of samples are typically required for the Monte-Carlo (MC) method on the high-fidelity power system model to achieve a sufficient accuracy, thereby rendering this approach computationally prohibitive. To handle this problem efficiently, it is desirable to construct a surrogate model for the power system response. However, the straightforward MC sampling of the low-fidelity surrogate can lead to biased results in the low-probability tail regions that are vital to risk assessment. Moreover, a single surrogate is unable to handle the topology uncertainties caused by random branch outages. To overcome these issues, we propose a hybrid multi-surrogate (HMS) method based on the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with low-probability tail events reevaluated by the high-fidelity model through a probabilistic analysis. This method improves the computational efficiency of the MC method for rare-event risk assessment by leveraging multi-fidelity models while retaining the desired accuracy. Simulations conducted in three test systems verify the excellent performances of the HMS method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding protein-complex assembly through grand canonical maximum entropy modeling

Inside a cell, heterotypic proteins assemble in inhomogeneous, crowded systems where the abundance of these proteins vary with cell types. While some protein complexes form putative structures that can be visualized with imaging, there are far more protein complexes that are yet to be solved because of their dynamic associations with one another. Nevertheless, it is possible to infer these protein complexes through a physical model. However, it is often not clear to physicists what kind of data from biology is necessary for such a modeling endeavor. Here, we aim to model these clusters of coarse-grained protein assemblies from multiple subunits through the constraints of interactions among the subunits and the chemical potential of each subunit. We obtained the constraints on the interactions among subunits from the known protein structures. We inferred the chemical potential that dictates the particle number distribution of each protein subunit from the knowledge of protein abundance from experimental data. Guided by the maximum entropy principle, we formulated an inverse statistical mechanical method to infer the distribution of particle numbers from the data of protein abundance as chemical potentials for a grand canonical multicomponent mixture. Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, we captured a distribution of high-order clusters in a protein complex of succinate dehydrogenase with four known subunits. The complexity of hierarchical clusters varies with the relative protein abundance of each subunit in distinctive cell types such as lung, heart, and brain. When the crowding content increases, we observed that crowding stabilizes emergent clusters that do not exist in dilute conditions. We, therefore, proposed a testable hypothesis that the hierarchical complexity of protein clusters on a molecular scale is a plausible biomarker of predicting the phenotypes of a cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Avoiding pitfalls in molecular simulation of vapor sorption: Example of propane and isobutane in metal–organic frameworks for adsorption cooling applications

This study introduces recommendations for conducting molecular simulations of vapor adsorption, with an emphasis on enhancing the accuracy, reproducibility, and comparability of results. The first aspect we address is consistency in the implementation of some details of typical molecular models, including tail corrections and cutoff distances, due to their significant influence on generated data. We highlight the importance of explicitly calculating the saturation pressures at relevant temperatures using methods such as Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate some pitfalls in extrapolating saturation pressures using this method. For grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations, the input fugacity is usually calculated using an equation of state, which often requires the critical parameters of the fluid. We show the importance of using critical parameters derived from the simulation with the same model to ensure internal consistency between the simulated explicit adsorbate phase and the implicit bulk phase in GCMC. We show the advantages of presenting isotherms on a relative pressure scale to facilitate easier comparison among models and with experiment. Extending these guidelines to a practical case study, we evaluate the performance of various isoreticular metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in adsorption cooling applications. This includes examining the advantages of using propane and isobutane as working fluids and identifying MOFs with a superior performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Method-independent cusps for atomic orbitals in quantum Monte Carlo

Here, we present an approach for augmenting Gaussian atomic orbitals with correct nuclear cusps. Like the atomic orbital basis set itself and unlike previous cusp corrections, this approach is independent of the many-body method used to prepare wave functions for quantum Monte Carlo. Once the basis set and molecular geometry are specified, the cusp-corrected atomic orbitals are uniquely specified, regardless of which density functionals, quantum chemistry methods, or subsequent variational Monte Carlo optimizations are employed. We analyze the statistical improvement offered by these cusps in a number of molecules and find them to offer similar advantages as molecular-orbital-based approaches while remaining independent of the choice of many-body method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On the potentially transformative role of auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo in quantum chemistry: A highly accurate method for transition metals and beyond

Approximate solutions to the ab initio electronic structure problem have been a focus of theoretical and computational chemistry research for much of the past century, with the goal of predicting relevant energy differences to within “chemical accuracy” (1 kcal/mol). For small organic molecules, or in general, for weakly correlated main group chemistry, a hierarchy of single-reference wave function methods has been rigorously established, spanning perturbation theory and the coupled cluster (CC) formalism. For these systems, CC with singles, doubles, and perturbative triples is known to achieve chemical accuracy, albeit at O(N7) computational cost. In addition, a hierarchy of density functional approximations of increasing formal sophistication, known as Jacob’s ladder, has been shown to systematically reduce average errors over large datasets representing weakly correlated chemistry. However, the accuracy of such computational models is less clear in the increasingly important frontiers of chemical space including transition metals and f-block compounds, in which strong correlation can play an important role in reactivity. A stochastic method, phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (ph-AFQMC), has been shown to be capable of producing chemically accurate predictions even for challenging molecular systems beyond the main group, with relatively low O(N3 − N4) cost and near-perfect parallel efficiency. Herein, we present our perspectives on the past, present, and future of the ph-AFQMC method. We focus on its potential in transition metal quantum chemistry to be a highly accurate, systematically improvable method that can reliably probe strongly correlated systems in biology and chemical catalysis and provide reference thermochemical values (for future development of density functionals or interatomic potentials) when experiments are either noisy or absent. Finally, we discuss the present limitations of the method and where we expect near-term development to be most fruitful.

Chemistry↗

Cosmic ray transport in mixed magnetic fields and their role on the observed anisotropies

ABSTRACT There is a growing set of observational data demonstrating that cosmic rays exhibit small-scale anisotropies (5°–30°) with amplitude deviations lying between 0.01–0.1 per cent that of the average cosmic ray flux. A broad range of models have been proposed to explain these anisotropies ranging from finite-scale magnetic field structures to dark matter annihilation. The standard diffusion transport methods used in cosmic ray propagation do not capture the transport physics in a medium with finite-scale or coherent magnetic field structures. Here, we present a Monte Carlo transport method, applying it to a series of finite-scale magnetic field structures to determine the requirements of such fields in explaining the observed cosmic ray, small-scale anisotropies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗