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The detection, distribution, and dynamics of atmospheric water on Earth was examined. How the high levels of water vapor and precipitation that occur over the tropics during the monsoon season result from the development of a strong divergent atmospheric circulation is discussed.
An eight-variable dynamical system is developed, representing a generalization of most previous low-order models of planetary wave behavior. As a special case a three component model, somewhat more general than a recent model of Lorenz and representing only thermal-monsoonal forcing (i.e., no mountains), is studied and shown to be capable of exhibiting a 'folded resonance' equilibrium portrait suggestive of that which seems to be required to account for the observed bimodality of the atmospheric long-wave amplitude. When forced by seasonal thermal variations the system can exhibit vacillatory fluctuation qualitatively similar to observations.
Nimbus-7 cloud and Earth radiation budget data are compared in a study of the effects of clouds on the tropical radiation budget. The data consist of daily averages over fixed 500 sq km target areas, and the months of July 1979 and January 1980 were chosen to show the effect of seasonal changes. Six climate regions, consisting of 14 to 24 target areas each, were picked for intensive analysis because they exemplified the range in the tropical cloud/net radiation interactions. The normal analysis was to consider net radiation as the independent variable and examine how cloud cover, cloud type, albedo and emitted radiation varied with the net radiation. Two recurring themes keep repeating on a local, regional, and zonal basis: the net radiation is strongly influenced by the average cloud type and amount present, but most net radiation values could be produced by several combinations of cloud types and amount. The regions of highest net radiation (greater than 125 W/sq m) tend to have medium to heavy cloud cover. In these cases, thin medium altitude clouds predominate. Their cloud tops are normally too warm to be classified as cirrus by the Nimbus cloud algorithm. A common feature in the tropical oceans are large regions where the total regional cloud cover varies from 20 to 90 percent, but with little regional difference in the net radiation. The monsoon and rain areas are high net radiation regions.
The University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center mapped rainfall over the Indian Ocean using a newly developed Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) rain-retrieval algorithm. The short-range objective was to characterize the distribution and variability of Indian Ocean rainfall on seasonal and annual scales. In the long-range, the objective is to clarify differences between land and marine regimes of monsoon rain. Researchers developed a semi-empirical algorithm for retrieving Indian Ocean rainfall. Tools for this development have come from radiative transfer and cloud liquid water models. Where possible, ground truth information from available radars was used in development and testing. SMMR rainfalls were also compared with Indian Ocean gauge rainfalls. Final Indian Ocean maps were produced for months, seasons, and years and interpreted in terms of historical analysis over the sub-continent.
The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) was applied to a 10-year data set of outgoing longwave radiation. Spherical harmonic functions are used as a basis set for producing equal area map results. The following findings are noted. The first EOF accounts for 66 percent of the variance. After that, each EOF accounts for only a small variance, forming a slowly converging series. The first two EOF's describe mainly the annual cycle. The third EOF is primarily the semiannual cycle although many other EOF's also contain significant semiannual parts. These results reaffirm those based on a shorter data set. In addition, a much stronger spring/fall mode was found in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the second EOF than was found earlier. This difference is attributed to the use of broadband radiometer data which were available for the present study. The earlier study used data from a window channel instrument which is not as sensitive to water vapor variations. The fourth EOF describes much of the 1976 to 1977 and 1982 to 1983 ENSO phenomena. There is typically a gap in the spectrum between a semiannual peak and the annual cycle for all but the first EOF. A semiannual OLR dipole straddles the Asian-Australian monsoon track.
Seasat scatterometer data over the Arabian Sea are used to build wind-stress fields during July and August 1978. They are first compared with 3-day wind analyses from ship data along the Somali coast. Seasat scatterometer specifications of 2-m/s and 20-deg accuracy are fulfilled in almost all cases. The exceptions are for winds stronger than 14 m/s, which are underestimated by the scatterometer by 15 percent. Wind stress is derived from these wind data using a bulk formula with a drag coefficient depending on the wind intensity. A successive-correction objective analysis is used to build the wind-stress field over the Arabian Sea with 2 x 2-deg and 6-day resolution. The final wind-stress fields are not significantly dependent on the objective analysis because of the dense coverage of the scatterometer. The combination of scatterometer and coastal ship data gives the best coverage to resolve monsoon wind structures even close to the coast. The final wind stress fields show wind features consistent with other monthly mean wind stress field. However, a high variability is observed on the 6-day time scale.
A reevaluation is presented of the 'nuclear winter' scenario of Turco et al. (1983). New pertinent data have emerged from laboratory studies, field experiments, and numerical models on the smoke-plume, mesoscale, and global scales. A full-scale nuclear exchange's probable soot injections lead, in three-dimensional climate simulations, to midsummer land temperature decreases averaging 10-20 C in northern midlatitudes, with local cooling of as much as 35 C. Anomalous circulation patterns due to solar heating of the soot could stabilize the upper atmosphere against overturning, thereby prolonging the soot's residence time in the atmosphere. Monsoon disruptions and severe ozone layer depletion are also foreseen.
Results are presented from quantitative comparisons between satellite microwave radiometer observations and digital radar observations of equatorial convective cloud clusters and midlatitude frontal precipitation. Simultaneous data from the Winter Monsoon Experiment digital radar and the SMMR for December 1978 are analyzed. It is found that the most important differences between the microwave response to rainfall in the equatorial tropics and to stratiform rain in oceanic midlatitude fronts is caused by the different spatial characteristics of stratiform and convective rainfall and by the different background brightness temperature fields associated with tropical and midlatitude levels of atmospheric water vapor.
Mesoscale cloud clusters near the northwestern coast of Borneo were observed by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on three occasions during the Winter Monsoon Experiment in December 1978. A nondimensional form of the SMMR 37 GHz polarization difference is introduced and used to identify regions of precipitation, and these are compared with visible and infrared imagery from the GMS-1 geostationary satellite. For two of the three cloud cluster cases, quantitative comparisons are made between nearly simultaneous SMMR observations and reflectivity observations made by the MIT WR-73 digital weather radar at Bintulu. Though limited in scope, these represent the first known direct comparisons between digital radar-derived rain parameters and satellite passive microwave observations of near-equatorial precipitation. SMMR 37 GHz observations are found to be much better indicators of fractional coverage of each SMMR footprint by rain than of average rain rate within the footprint. Total area coverage by precipitation is estimated for all three clusters using this result.
An overview of the STS-28 earth observation is provided with attention given to meteorology, oceanographic phenomena, and human activity such as urban environments and related land uses. Environmental observations discussed include evidence of a monsoon, vegetation changes such as deforestation, and water pollution and eutrophication of major rivers. Particular attention is paid to atmospheric palls in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Discussion of geological observations focuses on the Mount St. Helens volcano and the little-recognized landform type, the immense illuvial cone. Observation techniques include use of color infrared film and two types of polarization observations.
In the Arabian Sea, the southwest monsoon promotes seasonal upwelling of deep water, which supplies nutrients to the surface layer and leads to a marked increase in phytoplankton growth. Remotely sensed data on ocean color are used here to show that the resulting distribution of phytoplankton exerts a controlling influence on the seasonal evolution of sea surface temperature. This results in a corresponding modification of ocean-atmosphere heat exchange on regional and seasonal scales. It is shown that this biological mechanism may provide an important regulating influence on ocean-atmosphere interactions.
The systematic error in the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) medium-range operational forecasts of the global divergence during 1987 and 1988 is examined in this study. As in other operational NWP models the NMC model has too weak an annual mean, annual cycle, and 30-60 day oscillation. This weakness shows up after only a few days, especially over the monsoon region and tropical areas. When the intraseasonal oscillation amplitude is large the model predictive skill is improved. The eastward propagation of the low-frequency mode is well predicted throughout the 10-day forecast period. The north-south migration of the tropical Hadley circulation, depicted primarily by the annual-cycle mode, is also weaker although the phase pattern predicted by the MRF is consistent with analyses.
Nimbus-7 cloud and earth radiation budget data are compared in a study of the effects of clouds on the tropical radiation budget. The data consist of daily averages over fixed 500 sq km target areas, and the months of July 1979 and January 1980 were chosen to show the effect of seasonal changes. Six climate regions, consisting of 14 to 24 target areas each, were picked for intensive analysis because they exemplified the range in the tropical cloud/net radiation interactions. It is found that the net radiation is strongly influenced by the average cloud type and amount present, but most net radiation values could be produced by several combinations of cloud types and amount. The regions of highest net radiation (greater than 125 W/sq m) tend to have medium to heavy cloud cover. In these cases, thin medium-altitude clouds predominate. Their cloud tops are normally too warm to be classified as cirrus by the Nimbus cloud algorithm. In the tropical oceans there are large regions where the total regional cloud cover varies from 20 to 90 percent, but with little regional difference in the net radiation. The monsoon and rain areas are high net radiation regions.
A ground-based cloud water phased discriminating spectroradiometer was designed, built, and employed to obtain reflectance from the sides and tops of cumuliform towers during the Arizona summer monsoons from 1984 through 1987 (Pileaskie and Twomey, 1987 and 1988). The experimental procedure was designed to observe the upper regions of rapidly ascending turrets as they matured, obtaining spectra every two minutes to determine the onset of glaciation. Occasionally, conditions permitted continuous observations from time of cloud conception to full maturation, i.e., an advanced cumulonimbus marked by anvil growth, lightning, and precipitation.
A number of pre-Pleistocene climate records exhibit significant fluctuations at the 100,000-year (100-ky) eccentricity period, before the time of such fluctuations in global ice volume. The origin of these fluctuations has been obscure. Results reported here from a modeling study suggest that such a response can occur over low-altitude land areas involved in monsoon fluctuations. The twice yearly passage of the sun across the equator and the seasonal timing of perihelion interact to increase both 100-ky and 400-ky power in the modeled temperature field. The magnitude of the temperature response is sufficiently large to leave an imprint on the geologic record, and simulated fluctuations resemble those found in records of Triassic lake levels.
The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) was applied to a 10-yr data set of outgoing longwave radiation. Spherical harmonic functions are used as a basis set for producing equal area map results. The first EOF accounts for 66 percent of the variance. After that, each EOF accounts for only a small variance, forming a slowly converging series. The first two EOFs describe mainly the annual cycle. The third EOF is primarily the semiannual cycle although many other EOFs also contain significant semiannual parts. These results reaffirm those based on a shorter data set. In addition, a much stronger spring/fall mode was found in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the second EOF than was found earlier. The fourth EOF describes much of the 1976 to 1977 and 1982 to 1983 ENSO phenomena. There is typically a gap in the spectrum between a semiannual peak and the annual cycle for all but the first EOF. A semiannual OLR dipole straddles the Asian-Australian monsoon track.
Attention is given to earth observations made by the crew of Space Shuttle Flight 43, during which atmospheric haze and its various aerosols were investigated. The length-of-record time series from the Space Shuttle Earth Observation Program was used to photograph some of the sites under active investigation. It was found that Lake Chad's northern basin remained dry, and the southern basin showed no appreciable changes in water level. The Okavango Swamp areas in Botswana showed agricultural burning at several sites, and increasing evidence of land use activity in the areas of the swamp that previously had been under natural cover. Consideration is also given to Hurricane Fefa and Tropical Storm Guillermo, the smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires, Mount Pinatubo, dust storms in the Sahara, biomass burning, South Asian monsoon runoff, land use patterns, landforms and geology, and oceans and coastal features.
Equatorial Atlantic surface waters respond directly to changes in zonal and meridional lower tropospheric winds forced by annual insolation. This mechanism has its maximum effect along the equatorial wave guide centered on 10 deg W. The result is to amplify even subtle tropical climate changes such that they are recorded by marked amplitude changes in the proxy signals. Model realizations, NCAR AGCM and OGCM for 0 Ka and 126 Ka (January and July), and paleoceanographic proxy data show that these winds are also forced by insolation changes at the orbital periods of precession and obliquity. Perhelion in boreal summer produces a strengthened monsoon, e.g., increase meridional and decrease zonal wind stress. This reduces oceanic Ekman divergence and thermocline/nutricline shallowing. The result, in the equatorial Atlantic, is reduced primary productivity and higher euphotic zone temperatures; vice versa for perihelion in boreal winter. Perihelion is controlled by precession. Thus, the dominant period in spectra from a stacked SST record (0-252 Ka BP) at the site of the equatorial Atlantic amplifier is 23 Ky (53 percent of the total variance). This precessional period is coherent (k = 0.920) and in phase with boreal summer insolation. Oscillations of shorter period are present in records from cores sited beneath the amplifier region. These occur between 12.5 and 74.5 Ka BP, when eccentricity modulation of precession is at a minimum. Within this time interval there are 21 cycles with mean periods of 3.0 plus or minus 0.5 Ky. Similar periods have been documented from high latitude regions, e.g., Greenland ice cores from Camp Century. The Camp Century signal in this same time interval contains 21 cycles. A subjective correlation was made between the Camp Century and the equatorial records; the signals were statistically similar, r = 0.722 and k = 0.960.