SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Models, Statistical”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
An integrated statistical-thermodynamic model for fission gas release and swelling in nuclear fuels
Here, we propose a new model for burst fission gas release induced by microcracking in ceramic nuclear fuels such as uranium dioxide. The model stipulates that the densities of defects in the fuel material, such as microcracks and fission gas bubbles on grain boundaries, evolve in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics. Central to the model is the notion of an effective temperature, conjugate to the configurational entropy of the fuel material, and directly linked to the burnup. The model predicts that microcracking, driven by the internal stress state of the fuel material, reduces the bubble storage capacity of grain boundaries, and accounts for burst fission gas release during rapid temperature transients that simulate power transients, reactor startup, and loss-of-coolant accident conditions.
KMC Simulation of Statistical Mechanical Models and Coarse-grained Mesoscale Descriptions of Catalytic Reaction-Diffusion Processes: 1D Nanoporous and 2D Surface Systems
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: a comparison of process-based and statistical yield models
Not Available
Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity
Not provided.
Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability
Abstract Daily expected wind power production from operating wind farms across North America are used to evaluate capacity factors (CF) computed using simulation output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and to condition statistical models linking atmospheric conditions to electricity production. In Parts I and II of this work, we focus on making projections of annual energy production and the occurrence of electrical production drought. Here, we extend evaluation of the CF projections for sites in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Great Plains (SGP), and southwest U.S. coast (SWC) using statewide wind-generated electricity supply to the grid. We then quantify changes in the time scales of CF variability and the seasonality. Currently, wind-generated electricity is lowest in summer in each region except SWC, which causes a substantial mismatch with electricity demand. While electricity of residential heating may shift demand, research presented here suggests that summertime CF are likely to decline, potentially exacerbating the offset between seasonal peak power production and current load. The reduction in summertime CF is manifest for all regions except the SGP and appears to be linked to a reduction in synoptic-scale variability. Using fulfillment of 50% and 90% of annual energy production to quantify interannual variability, it is shown that wind power production exhibits higher (earlier fulfillment) or lower (later fulfillment) production for periods of over 10–30 years as a result of the action of internal climate modes. Significance Statement Electrical power system reassessment and redesign may be needed to aid efficient increased use of variable renewables in the generation of electricity. Currently wind-generated electricity in many regions of North America exhibits a minimum in summertime and hence is not well synchronized with electricity demand, which tends to be maximized in summer. Future projections indicate evidence of reductions in wind power during summer that would amplify this offset. However, electrification of heating may lead to increased wintertime demand, which would lead to greater synchronization.
Automatic Detection of Defects in High-Reliability Components
Disastrous consequences can result from defects in manufactured parts—particularly the high consequence parts developed at Sandia. Identifying flaws in as-built parts can be done with nondestructive means, such as X-ray Computed Tomography (CT). However, due to artifacts and complex imagery, the task of analyzing the CT images falls to humans. Human analysis is inherently unreproducible, unscalable, and can easily miss subtle flaws. We hypothesized that deep learning methods could improve defect identification, increase the number of parts that can effectively be analyzed, and do it in a reproducible manner. We pursued two methods: 1) generating a defect-free version of a scan and looking for differences (PandaNet), and 2) using pre-trained models to develop a statistical model of normality (Feature-based Anomaly Detection System: FADS). Both PandaNet and FADS provide good results, are scalable, and can identify anomalies in imagery. In particular, FADS enables zero-shot (training-free) identification of defects for minimal computational cost and expert time. It significantly outperforms prior approaches in computational cost while achieving comparable results. FADS’ core concept has also shown utility beyond anomaly detection by providing feature extraction for downstream tasks.
Statistical Cost Modeling of Behind-the-Meter Battery Energy Storage Systems.
Abstract not provided.
What is the Best Model? A Statistical Approach to Compression Analytics.
Abstract not provided.
Material Control & Accounting Statistical Test Modeling Supporting the Low Enriched Fuel Fabrication Facility Using F3M and MAPIT
This report covers the application of the TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel fabrication facility material control & accounting (MC&A) modeling capability developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program to support the development of MC&A approaches for the Low Enriched Fuel Fabrication Facility (LEFFF) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).
A new stepwise carbon cycle data assimilation system using multiple data streams to constrain the simulated land surface carbon cycle
Here, large uncertainties in land surface models (LSMs) simulations still arise from inaccurate forcing, poor description of land surface heterogeneity (soil and vegetation properties), incorrect model parameter values and incomplete representation of biogeochemical processes. The recent increase in the number and type of carbon cycle-related observations, including both in situ and remote sensing measurements, has opened a new road to optimize model parameters via robust statistical model–data integration techniques, in order to reduce the uncertainties of simulated carbon fluxes and stocks. In this study we present a carbon cycle data assimilation system that assimilates three major data streams, namely the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) flux measurements at more than 70 sites (FLUXNET), as well as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 53 surface stations, in order to optimize the main parameters (around 180 parameters in total) of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamics Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) LSM (version 1.9.5 used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations). The system relies on a stepwise approach that assimilates each data stream in turn, propagating the information gained on the parameters from one step to the next. Overall, the ORCHIDEE model is able to achieve a consistent fit to all three data streams, which suggests that current LSMs have reached the level of development to assimilate these observations. The assimilation of MODIS-NDVI (step 1) reduced the growing season length in ORCHIDEE for temperate and boreal ecosystems, thus decreasing the global mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Using FLUXNET data (step 2) led to large improvements in the seasonal cycle of the NEE and LE fluxes for all ecosystems (i.e., increased amplitude for temperate ecosystems). The assimilation of atmospheric CO 2 , using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDz; step 3), provides an overall constraint (i.e., constraint on large-scale net CO 2 fluxes), resulting in an improvement of the fit to the observed atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. Thus, the optimized model predicts a land C (carbon) sink of around 2.2 PgC yr -1 (for the 2000–2009 period), which is more compatible with current estimates from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) than the prior value. The consistency of the stepwise approach is evaluated with back-compatibility checks. The final optimized model (after step 3) does not significantly degrade the fit to MODIS-NDVI and FLUXNET data that were assimilated in the first two steps, suggesting that a stepwise approach can be used instead of the more “challenging” implementation of a simultaneous optimization in which all data streams are assimilated together. Most parameters, including the scalar of the initial soil carbon pool size, changed during the optimization with a large error reduction. This work opens new perspectives for better predictions of the land carbon budgets.
Brachman relations in the statistical atom model.
Brachman relations for generalized Thomas-Fermi and Thomas-Fermi-Dirac theories derived from Gibbs function and virial theorem
System statistical reliability model and analysis
A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.
Statistical-band-model analysis and integrated intensity for the 21.8 micrometer bands of HNO3 vapor
A large number of low-resolution quantitative spectra were obtained for a band-model analysis of 21.8-micrometer bands. The experimental investigations were conducted with pure nitric-acid vapor at 40 C, taking into account pressures in the range from a few torr to a pressure which is close to the saturation pressure. It is pointed out that the obtained data, in addition to those from the 11.3-micrometer band, can be used for an independent determination of the nitric acid vertical distribution in the stratosphere.
Evaluation of the radar response to land surfaces and volumes: Examination of theoretical models, target statistics, and applications
Four areas of L-band radar remote sensing of terrain were examined: (1) the behavior of the radar backscatter coefficient of distributed surface and volumes as a function of the targets' dielectric and geometric parameters and as a fnction of their physical parameters; (2) the correspondence of the angular behavior of the relative backscatter coefficient as extracted from SIR-B digital imagery and truck mounted L-band scatterometer measurements for about 100 fields; (3) the statistical behavior of SIR-B image density for targets that appear homogeneous on Thematic Mapper (TM) optical imagery and/or color IR photography; and (4) the applicability of SIR-B imagery both alone and in conjunction with TM imagery for the classification and monitoring of land cover and renewable resources.
Mechanisms of crustal deformation in the western US
The deformation processes in the western United States were studied, considering both deterministic models and random or statistical models. The role of the intracrustal delamination and mechanisms of crustal thinning were also examined. The application of fractal techniques to understand how the crust is deforming was studied in complex regions. Work continued on the development of a fractal based model for deformation in the western United States. Fractal studies were also extended to the study of topography and the geoid.
Application of large eddy interaction model to a mixing layer
The large eddy interaction model (LEIM) is a statistical model of turbulence based on the interaction of selected eddies with the mean flow and all of the eddies in a turbulent shear flow. It can be utilized as the starting point for obtaining physical structures in the flow. The possible application of the LEIM to a mixing layer formed between two parallel, incompressible flows with a small temperature difference is developed by invoking a detailed similarity between the spectra of velocity and temperature.