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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Projecting California Light-Duty Vehicle Attributes (2019-2035)

In this report, we estimated a set of future vehicle attribute scenarios for new light-duty vehicles for the California market using the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT). ADOPT starts simulations with all existing vehicle makes and models and endogenously creates new vehicle models over time based on assumed technology improvements and market conditions. For this study, we simulated four scenarios with varied technology, policy, and electric vehicle infrastructure assumptions. We aggregated simulation results into up to 30 vehicle classes (covering size and price classifications) for each powertrain, for six powertrains. We simulated model years 2019 to 2035. We present results for four vehicle attributes: vehicle acceleration, fuel economy (including electric and gasoline for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs]), vehicle range, and vehicle purchase price. We also present results showing the estimated number of vehicle models available in each vehicle class over time. In the Mid scenario, which contains conditions between our most conservative and most optimistic assumptions for emerging electric and hydrogen technologies, we observe improvements in acceleration, range (for battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]), and vehicle purchase price for electric and hydrogen powertrains. In some cases, we project that consumer preferences lead to trade-offs between vehicle attributes, such as reduced fuel economy in exchange for improved acceleration. Conventional vehicles show modest improvements in fuel economy in these scenarios due to the high numbers of BEV and PHEV sales, which reduce the improvements required in conventional vehicles to meet fleet fuel economy standards. In scenarios with advanced technology assumptions (including reduced battery price and improved energy density), we observe further improvements in BEV range and price relative to the improvements in the Mid scenario.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Enabled Image Classification for Automated Electron Microscopy

Abstract Traditionally, materials discovery has been driven more by evidence and intuition than by systematic design. However, the advent of “big data” and an exponential increase in computational power have reshaped the landscape. Today, we use simulations, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) to predict materials characteristics, which dramatically accelerates the discovery of novel materials. For instance, combinatorial megalibraries, where millions of distinct nanoparticles are created on a single chip, have spurred the need for automated characterization tools. This paper presents an ML model specifically developed to perform real-time binary classification of grayscale high-angle annular dark-field images of nanoparticles sourced from these megalibraries. Given the high costs associated with downstream processing errors, a primary requirement for our model was to minimize false positives while maintaining efficacy on unseen images. We elaborate on the computational challenges and our solutions, including managing memory constraints, optimizing training time, and utilizing Neural Architecture Search tools. The final model outperformed our expectations, achieving over 95% precision and a weighted F-score of more than 90% on our test data set. This paper discusses the development, challenges, and successful outcomes of this significant advancement in the application of AI and ML to materials discovery.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning for incipient anomaly detection in compact molten salt heat exchanger with overlapping feature distributions

High-temperature molten salt-cooled reactors (MSCRs) are a promising next-generation nuclear technology option, offering efficient power conversion and inherent safety features. However, the reliability of these systems depends on the robust operation of heat exchangers (HXs), which are susceptible to failure due to temperature gradients and channel plugging caused by fluid freezing. Conventional monitoring methods, relying on inlet and outlet measurements, lack the spatial resolution needed to detect early-stage faults. We propose a novel design of a compact salt-to-salt matrix-type HX design consisting of interleaved arrays of parallel tubes, with integrated synthetic fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) to enable localized detection of incipient faults. To evaluate performance of this design, we generate high-fidelity synthetic data using heat transfer computational modeling to simulate channel plugging, and introduce sensor noise for realistic modeling of measurements. The dataset comprises of 97% normal operation and 3% anomaly cases, with each anomaly class representing 1% of the data. These early anomalies result in overlapping temperature profiles between normal and faulty channels, producing a non-separable dataset that challenges traditional classification techniques. We benchmark eight supervised machine learning (ML) models and demonstrate that XGBoost achieves the highest performance. To improve transparency, we develop an explainability framework combining Shapley values and partially ordered sets (POSETs) to quantify and structurally analyze feature importance. This approach identifies both dominant predictors and ambiguous feature relationships, enhancing trust and interpretability. Our results highlight the potential of combining DTS and explainable ML with intelligent feature selection to improve predictive maintenance and ensure operational resilience in advanced nuclear systems.

Prantikos, Konstantinos [Argonne National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing transfer learning in angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) with spatially-aware representations via graph convolution

A recent application of machine learning has been to spatially-resolved angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES). Here we advance the state-of-the-art by applying representational learning to transform ARPES data into an embedding space of a pre-trained self-supervised learning model, thus enhancing the pipeline that improves the bandstructure classification and domain assignment/segmentation performance compared to a k-means clustering method. In the current iteration, the real-space information is entered into the domain assignment through the graph convolution method, which improves the transfer learning performance of the original self-supervised model. Lastly, an unsupervised automated tool is developed that incorporates these techniques to enable automatic domain assignment.

ARPES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Disruptions on the Economics of a Tokamak Power Plant

Tokamaks are often considered to be a leading candidate for near-term, cost-effective fusion energy, but these devices are susceptible to sudden loss of confinement events called disruptions. The threat of disruptions has garnered serious attention in research for the next generation of burning plasma experiments, such as ITER, but has received little treatment in economic studies of magnetic fusion energy. In this paper, we present a model for quantifying the effect of disruptions on the cost of electricity produced by a tokamak power plant (TPP). We outline the various ways disruptions increase costs and decrease revenues, introduce metrics to quantify these effects, and add them to a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model. Additionally, we identify several rate-limiting repair steps and introduce a classification system of disruption types based on the time to return to operations. We demonstrate how the LCOE model can be used to find the cost of electricity and the requirements for disruption handling of a TPP, and we further highlight where future research can have a strong impact in neutralizing the “showstopping” potential of disruptions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Neural Architecture Codesign Package (SNAC-Pack)

Neural Architecture Search is a powerful approach for automating model design, but existing methods struggle to accurately optimize for real hardware performance, often relying on proxy metrics such as bit operations. We present Surrogate Neural Architecture Codesign Package (SNAC-Pack), an integrated framework that automates the discovery and optimization of neural networks focusing on FPGA deployment. SNAC-Pack combines Neural Architecture Codesign's multi-stage search capabilities with the Resource Utilization and Latency Estimator, enabling multi-objective optimization across accuracy, FPGA resource utilization, and latency without requiring time-intensive synthesis for each candidate model. We demonstrate SNAC-Pack on a high energy physics jet classification task, achieving 63.84% accuracy with resource estimation. When synthesized on a Xilinx Virtex UltraScale+ VU13P FPGA, the SNAC-Pack model matches baseline accuracy while maintaining comparable resource utilization to models optimized using traditional BOPs metrics. This work demonstrates the potential of hardware-aware neural architecture search for resource-constrained deployments and provides an open-source framework for automating the design of efficient FPGA-accelerated models.

Weitz, Jason [UC, San Diego] (ORCID:00090004631535↗
DOE OSTI2021

Train Like a (Var)Pro: Efficient Training of Neural Networks with Variable Projection

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance across a variety of traditional machine learning tasks, e.g., speech recognition, image classification, and segmentation. The ability of DNNs to efficiently approximate high-dimensional functions has also motivated their use in scientific applications, e.g., to solve partial differential equations and to generate surrogate models. In this paper, we consider the supervised training of DNNs, which arises in many of the above applications. We focus on the central problem of optimizing the weights of the given DNN such that it accurately approximates the relation between observed input and target data. Devising effective solvers for this optimization problem is notoriously challenging due to the large number of weights, nonconvexity, data sparsity, and nontrivial choice of hyperparameters. To solve the optimization problem more efficiently, we propose the use of variable projection (VarPro), a method originally designed for separable nonlinear least-squares problems. Our main contribution is the Gauss--Newton VarPro method (GNvpro) that extends the reach of the VarPro idea to nonquadratic objective functions, most notably cross-entropy loss functions arising in classification. These extensions make GNvpro applicable to all training problems that involve a DNN whose last layer is an affine mapping, which is common in many state-of-the-art architectures. In our four numerical experiments from surrogate modeling, segmentation, and classification, GNvpro solves the optimization problem more efficiently than commonly used stochastic gradient descent (SGD) schemes. Finally, GNvpro finds solutions that generalize well, and in all but one example better than well-tuned SGD methods, to unseen data points.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Generative Models in Energy System Applications: Review, Challenges, and Future Directions

In recent years, with the advent of mature machine learning products like ChatGPT, Stable Diffusion, and Sora, the world has witnessed tremendous changes driven by the rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (GAI). Beyond applications in text, speech, image, and video creation, deep generative models (DGMs) underpinning these cutting-edge technologies have also been employed by domain researchers to address scientific and engineering challenges. This paper aims to fill a gap in the research community by providing a systematic review of how DGMs have been utilized in energy system applications. After introducing four most popular DGMs, we review and categorize 196 research articles into five focus areas: data generation, forecasting, situational awareness, modeling, and optimal decision-making. Through this classification, we uncover trends in how DGMs are employed for each type of problem, highlighting GAI techniques that contribute to breakthroughs over traditional methods. We discuss limitations in existing literature, engineering challenges, and propose future directions, all tailored to the unique nature of problems in energy system engineering. Our goal is to offer insights for energy system domain researchers, providing a comprehensive view of existing studies and potential future opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Making Corgis Important for Honeycomb Classification: Adversarial Attacks on Concept-based Explainability Tools

Methods for model explainability have become increasingly critical for testing the fairness and soundness of deep learning. Concept-based interpretability techniques, which use a small set of human-interpretable concept exemplars in order to measure the influence of a concept on a model's internal representation of input, are an important thread in this line of research. In this work we show that these explainability methods can suffer the same vulnerability to adversarial attacks as the models they are meant to analyze. We demonstrate this phenomenon on two well-known concept-based interpretability methods: TCAV and faceted feature visualization. We show that by leveraging the geometry of the problem and carefully perturbing the examples of the concept that is being investigated, we can radically change the output of the interpretability method. The attacks that we propose can either induce positive interpretations (polka dots are an important concept for a model when classifying zebras) or negative interpretations (stripes are not an important factor in identifying images of a zebra). Our work highlights the fact that in safety-critical applications, there is need for security around not only the machine learning pipeline but also the model interpretation process.

Brown, Davis R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Image Denoising Methods for Medical Image Classification

Medical imaging devices, such as X-ray machines, inherently produce images that suffer from visual noise. Our objectives were to (i.) determine the effect of image denoising on a medical image classification task, and (ii.) determine if there exists a correlation between image denoising performance and medical image classification performance. We performed the medical image classification task on chest X-rays using the DenseNet-121 convolutional neural network (CNN) and used the peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and structural similarity (SSIM) metrics as the image denoising performance measures. We first found that different denoising methods can make a statistically significant difference in classification performance for select labels. We also found that denoising methods affect fine-tuned models more than randomly-initialized models and that fine-tuned models have significantly higher and more uniform performance than randomly-initialized models. Lastly, we found that there is no significant correlation between PSNR and SSIM values and classification performance for our task.

Michael, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of histopathology imaging comprehension algorithms based on multiple instance learning

Whole slide imaging (WSI), also called digital virtual microscopy, is a new imaging modality. It allows for the application of AI and machine learning methods to cancer pathology to help establish a means for the automatic diagnosis of cancer cases. However, designing machine-learning models for WSI is computationally challenging due to its required ultra-high resolution. The current state-of-the-art models use multiple instance learning (MIL). MIL is a weakly-supervised learning method in which the model uses an array of inferences from many smaller instances to make a final classification about the entire set. In the context of WSI, researchers divide the ultra-high-resolution image into many patches. The model then classifies the slide based on an array of inferences from the patches. Among several ways of making the final classification, attention-based mechanisms have resulted in superb accuracy scores. The Transformer, one attention-based algorithm, has reported substantial improvements for WSI comprehension tasks. In this project, we studied and compared several WSI comprehension algorithms. We used the following three datasets: CAMELYON16+17, TCGALung, and TCGA-Kidney. We found that attention-based MIL algorithms performed better than standard MIL algorithms for classifying WSI images, achieving a higher mean accuracy and AUC. However, none of the attention-based algorithms performed significantly better than the others, reporting accuracy scores that varied widely. Presumably, it is due to the limited availability of training samples in the data corpus. Since it is not easy to increase the samples from human subjects, some machine learning techniques like transfer learning could help mitigate this issue.

Saunders, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning integrates histopathology and proteogenomics at a pan-cancer level

We introduce a pioneering approach that integrates pathology imaging with transcriptomics and proteomics to identify predictive histology features associated with critical clinical outcomes in cancer. We utilize 2,755 H&E-stained histopathological slides from 657 patients across 6 cancer types from CPTAC. Our models effectively recapitulate distinctions readily made by human pathologists: tumor vs. normal (AUROC = 0.995) and tissue-of-origin (AUROC = 0.979). We further investigate predictive power on tasks not normally performed from H&E alone, including TP53 prediction and pathologic stage. Importantly, we describe predictive morphologies not previously utilized in a clinical setting. The incorporation of transcriptomics and proteomics identifies pathway-level signatures and cellular processes driving predictive histology features. Model generalizability and interpretability is confirmed using TCGA. We propose a classification system for these tasks, and suggest potential clinical applications for this integrated human and machine learning approach. A publicly available web-based platform implements these models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

1-D Convolutional Graph Convolutional Networks for Fault Detection in Distributed Energy Systems

This paper presents a 1-D convolutional and graph convolutional networks for fault detection in microgrids. The combination of 1-D convolutional neural networks (1D-CNN) and graph convolutional networks (GCN) helps extract both spatial-temporal correlations from the voltage measurements in microgrids. The fault detection scheme includes fault event detection, fault type and phase classification, and fault location. There are five neural network model training to handle these tasks. Transfer learning and fine-tuning are applied to reduce training efforts. The combined 1-D convolutional and graph convolutional networks (1D-CGCN) is compared with the traditional ANN structure on the Potsdam 13-bus microgrid dataset. The accuracy of 99.5%, 98.4%, 99.2%, and 95.5% are achieved in fault event detection, fault type classification, fault phase identification, and fault location respectively. The detailed confusion matrices of fault type and fault phase classification are provided for validation.

deep neural network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Large‐Scale Systematic Missing Pipe Attributes in Water Distribution Networks

Water distribution network (WDN) models are an essential tool used by water utilities for hydraulic analysis. Unfortunately, missing data and insufficient resources often make creating and maintaining these models unfeasible. Existing methods to address missing pipe properties, like sequential imputation for missing values and reconstruction using graph metrics, are designed to accommodate random patterns of missing information and require a significant percentage of the system's attributes to be known. However, these data completeness assumptions do not always align with real‐world scenarios where large sections of the WDN model have missing data. To address this challenge, this study proposes a data‐driven approach for estimating pipe diameter when considering different spatial patterns and degrees of data completeness (i.e., 0%–90%). Using data from 16 WDNs in Kentucky, this study compares the use of machine learning (ML) using topological and geospatial features against an existing deterministic approach. Results demonstrate that WDN models with pipe diameters predicted by the proposed ML method had comparable hydraulic performance to the ground truth models. Moreover, results showed that ML method performance varies between WDNs of differing topological classification. Insights from this study help advance the ability to leverage partial data to create and maintain WDN models amid uncertainty and inadequate resources.

Poff, Jason W. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR ↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel construct for scaling groundwater–river interactions based on machine-guided hydromorphic classification

Hydrologic exchange between river channels and adjacent subsurface environments is a key process that influences water quality and ecosystem function in river corridors. Predictive numerical models are needed to understand responses of river corridors to environmental change and to support sustainable watershed management. We posit that systematic hydromorphic classification provides a scaling construct that facilitates extrapolation of outputs from local-scale mechanistic models to reduced-order models applicable at reach and watershed scales. This in turn offers the potential to improve large-scale predictions of river corridor hydrobiogeochemical processes. Here we present a new machine-guided hydromorphic classification methodology that addresses the key requirements of this objective, and we demonstrate its application to a segment of the Columbia River in the northwestern United States. The resulting hydromorphic classes form spatially coherent and physically interpretable hydromorphic units that exhibit distinct behaviors in terms of distributions of subsurface residence times (a primary control on critical biogeochemical reactions). This approach forms the basis of ongoing research that is evaluating the formulation of reduced-order models and transferability of results to other river reaches and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Group-Invariant Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum machine learning (QML) models are aimed at learning from data encoded in quantum states. Recently, it has been shown that models with little to no inductive biases (i.e., with no assumptions about the problem embedded in the model) are likely to have trainability and generalization issues, especially for large problem sizes. As such, it is fundamental to develop schemes that encode as much information as available about the problem at hand. In this work we present a simple, yet powerful, framework where the underlying invariances in the data are used to build QML models that, by construction, respect those symmetries. These so-called group-invariant models produce outputs that remain invariant under the action of any element of the symmetry group $\mathfrak{G}$ associated with the dataset. We present theoretical results underpinning the design of $\mathfrak{G}$-invariant models, and exemplify their application through several paradigmatic QML classification tasks, including cases when $\mathfrak{G}$ is a continuous Lie group and also when it is a discrete symmetry group. Notably, our framework allows us to recover, in an elegant way, several well-known algorithms for the literature, as well as to discover new ones. Taken together, we expect that our results will help pave the way towards a more geometric and group-theoretic approach to QML model design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗