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DOE OSTI2026

Climate-Driven Divergence in Biophysical and Economic Impacts of Agrivoltaics

Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical-economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize -24%; soybean -16%) and lower farmers' profitability (maize -16%; soybean -2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (-12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (-6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Testing unified theories for ozone response in C 4 species

Abstract There is tremendous interspecific variability in O 3 sensitivity among C 3 species, but variation among C 4 species has been less clearly documented. It is also unclear whether stomatal conductance and leaf structure such as leaf mass per area (LMA) determine the variation in sensitivity to O 3 across species. In this study, we investigated leaf morphological, chemical, and photosynthetic responses of 22 genotypes of four C 4 bioenergy species (switchgrass, sorghum, maize, and miscanthus) to elevated O 3 in side‐by‐side field experiments using free‐air O 3 concentration enrichment (FACE). The C 4 species varied largely in leaf morphology, physiology, and nutrient composition. Elevated O 3 did not alter leaf morphology, nutrient content, stomatal conductance, chlorophyll fluorescence, and respiration in most genotypes but reduced net CO 2 assimilation in maize and photosynthetic capacity in sorghum and maize. Species with lower LMA and higher stomatal conductance tended to show greater losses in photosynthetic rate and capacity in elevated O 3 compared with species with higher LMA and lower stomatal conductance. Stomatal conductance was the strongest determinant of leaf photosynthetic rate and capacity. The response of both area‐ and mass‐based leaf photosynthetic rate and capacity to elevated O 3 were not affected by LMA directly but negatively influenced by LMA indirectly through stomatal conductance. These results demonstrate that there is significant variation in O 3 sensitivity among C 4 species with maize and sorghum showing greater sensitivity of photosynthesis to O 3 than switchgrass and miscanthus. Interspecific variation in O 3 sensitivity was determined by direct effects of stomatal conductance and indirect effects of LMA. This is the first study to provide a test of unifying theories explaining variation in O 3 sensitivity in C 4 bioenergy grasses. These findings advance understanding of O 3 tolerance in C 4 grasses and could aid in optimal placement of diverse C 4 bioenergy feedstock across a polluted landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Genetic Variation in Zea mays Influences Microbial Nitrification and DeNitrification in Conventional Agroecosystems

Nitrogenous fertilizers provide a short-lived benefit to crops in agroecosystems, but stimulate nitrification and denitrification, processes that result in nitrate pollution, N2O production, and reduced soil fertility. Recent advances in plant microbiome science suggest that genetic variation in plants can modulate the composition and activity of rhizosphere N-cycling microorganisms. Here we attempted to determine whether genetic variation exists in Zea mays for the ability to influence the rhizosphere nitrifier and denitrifier microbiome under “real-world” conventional agricultural conditions. To capture an extensive amount of genetic diversity within maize we grew and sampled the rhizosphere microbiome of a diversity panel of germplasm that included ex-PVP inbreds ( Z. mays ssp. mays ), ex-PVP hybrids ( Z. mays ssp. may s), and teosinte ( Z. mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis ). From these samples, we characterized the microbiome, a suite of microbial genes involved in nitrification and denitrification and carried out N-cycling potential assays. Here we are showing that populations/genotypes of a single species can vary in their ecological interaction with denitrifers and nitrifers. Some hybrid and teosinte genotypes supported microbial communities with lower potential nitrification and potential denitrification activity in the rhizosphere, while inbred genotypes stimulated/did not inhibit these N-cycling activities. These potential differences translated to functional differences in N2O fluxes, with teosinte plots producing less GHG than maize plots. Taken together, these results suggest that Zea genetic variation can lead to changes in N-cycling processes that result in N leaching and N2O production, and thereby are selectable targets for crop improvement. Understanding the underlying genetic variation contributing to belowground microbiome N-cycling into our conventional agricultural system could be useful for sustainability.

Nitrogen↗

DOE OSTI2014

Translational Genomics for the Improvement of Switchgrass

Our objectives were to apply bioinformatics and high throughput sequencing technologies to identify and classify the genes involved in cell wall formation in maize and switchgrass. Targets for genetic modification were to be identified and cell wall materials isolated and assayed for enhanced performance in bioprocessing. We annotated and assembled over 750 maize genes into gene families predicted to function in cell wall biogenesis. Comparative genomics of maize, rice, and Arabidopsis sequences revealed differences in gene family structure. In addition, differences in expression between gene family members of Arabidopsis, maize and rice underscored the need for a grass-specific genetic model for functional analyses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Historical land management alters new soil carbon inputs by annual and perennial bioenergy crops

Bioenergy and bioproduct markets are expanding to meet demand for climate friendly goods and services. Perennial biomass crops are particularly well suited for this goal because of their high yields, low input requirements, and potential to increase soil carbon (C). However, it is unclear how much C is allocated into belowground pools by perennial bioenergy crops and whether the belowground benefits vary with nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs. Using in situ 13C pulse-chase labeling, we tested whether the sterile perennial grass Miscanthus × giganteus ( miscanthus ) or annual maize transfers more photosynthetic C to belowground pools. The experiment took place at two sites in Central and Northwest (NW) Iowa with different management histories and two nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (0 and 224 kg N ha-1 yr-1) to determine if the fate of plant-derived soil C depends on soil fertility and crop type (perennial or annual). Maize allocated a greater percentage of total new 13C to roots than miscanthus, but miscanthus had greater new 13C in total and belowground plant biomass. We found strong interactions between site and most soil measurements – including new 13C in mineral and particulate soil organic matter (SOM) pools –which appear to be driven by differences in historical fertilizer management. The NW Iowa site, with a history of manure inputs, had greater plant-available nutrients (phosphorus, potassium, and ammonium) in soils, and resulted in less 13C from miscanthus in SOM pools compared to maize (approximately 64% less in POM and 70% less in MAOM). In more nutrient-limited soils (Central site), miscanthus transferred 4.5 times more 13C than maize to the more stable mineral-associated SOM pool. Our results suggest that past management, including historical manure inputs that affect a site’s soil fertility, can influence the net C benefits of bioenergy crops.

Keiser, Ashley [Stockbridge School of Agriculture,↗

NASA NTRS2017

Integrating Growth Stage Deficit Irrigation into a Process Based Crop Model

Current rates of agricultural water use are unsustainable in many regions, creating an urgent need to identify improved irrigation strategies for water limited areas. Crop models can be used to quantify plant water requirements, predict the impact of water shortages on yield, and calculate water productivity (WP) to link water availability and crop yields for economic analyses. Many simulations of crop growth and development, especially in regional and global assessments, rely on automatic irrigation algorithms to estimate irrigation dates and amounts. However, these algorithms are not well suited for water limited regions because they have simplistic irrigation rules, such as a single soil-moisture based threshold, and assume unlimited water. To address this constraint, a new modeling framework to simulate agricultural production in water limited areas was developed. The framework consists of a new automatic irrigation algorithm for the simulation of growth stage based deficit irrigation under limited seasonal water availability; and optimization of growth stage specific parameters. The new automatic irrigation algorithm was used to simulate maize and soybean in Gainesville, Florida, and first used to evaluate the sensitivity of maize and soybean simulations to irrigation at different growth stages and then to test the hypothesis that water productivity calculated using simplistic irrigation rules underestimates WP. In the first experiment, the effect of irrigating at specific growth stages on yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) in maize and soybean was evaluated. In the reproductive stages, IWUE tended to be higher than in the vegetative stages (e.g. IWUE was 18% higher than the well watered treatment when irrigating only during R3 in soybean), and when rainfall events were less frequent. In the second experiment, water productivity (WP) was significantly greater with optimized irrigation schedules compared to non-optimized irrigation schedules in water restricted scenarios. For example, the mean WP across 38 years of maize production was 1.1 kg/cu m for non-optimized irrigation schedules with 50 mm of seasonal available water and 2.1 kg/cu m optimized ion schedules, a 91% improvement in WP with optimized irrigation schedules. The framework described in this work could be used to estimate WP for regional to global assessments, as well as derive location specific irrigation guidance.

crop model↗

NASA NTRS2018

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields Under Climate Change

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Basso, B.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗

DOE OSTI2015

Environmental assessment of farm-scaled anaerobic co-digestion for bioenergy production

Highlights: • Anaerobic monodigestion and codigestion were compared. • The environmental advantages of suitable waste management were proved. • The use of cereal crops as feedstock improves biogas yield. • Cultivation step implies the most important environmental hotspot. • Digestate management options were evaluated. - Abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the environmental profile of a bioenergy system based on a co-digestion plant using maize silage and pig slurry as substrates. All the processes involved in the production of bioenergy as well as the avoided processes accrued from the biogas production system were evaluated. The results evidenced the environmental importance of the cultivation step and the environmental credits associated to the avoided processes. In addition, this plant was compared with two different plants that digest both substrates separately. The results revealed the environmental benefits of the utilisation of pig slurry due to the absence of environmental burdens associated with its production as well as credits provided when avoiding its conventional management. The results also presented the environmental drawbacks of the utilisation of maize silage due to the environmental burdens related with its production. Accordingly, the anaerobic mono-digestion of maize silage achieved the worst results. The co-digestion of both substrates was ranked in an intermediate position. Additionally, three possible digestate management options were assessed. The results showed the beneficial effect of digestate application as an organic fertiliser, principally on account of environmental credits due to avoided mineral fertilisation. However, digestate application involves important acidifying and eutrophicating emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Effect of lipo-chitooligosaccharide on early growth of C 4 grass seedlings

Although lipo-chitooligosaccharides (LCOs) are important signal molecules for plant-symbiont interactions, a number of reports suggest that LCOs can directly impact plant growth and development, separate from any role in plant symbioses. In order to investigate this more closely, maize and Setaria seedlings were treated with LCO and their growth was evaluated. The data indicate that LCO treatment significantly enhanced root growth. RNA-seq transcriptomic analysis of LCO-treated maize roots identified a number of genes whose expression was significantly affected by the treatment. Among these genes, some LCO-up-regulated genes are likely involved in root growth promotion. Interestingly, some stress-related genes were down-regulated after LCO treatment, which might indicate reallocation of resources from defense responses to plant growth. The promoter activity of several LCO-up-regulated genes using a β-glucuronidase reporter system was further analysed. The results showed that the promoters were activated by LCO treatment. Lastly, the data indicate that LCO can directly impact maize root growth and gene expression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Rewired phenolic metabolism and improved saccharification efficiency of a Zea mays cinnamyl alcohol dehydrogenase 2 (zmcad2) mutant

Lignocellulosic biomass is an abundant byproduct from cereal crops that can potentially be valorized as a feedstock to produce biomaterials. Zea mays CINNAMYL ALCOHOL DEHYDROGENASE 2 (ZmCAD2) is involved in lignification, and is a promising target to improve the cellulose–to–glucose conversion of maize stover. Here, we analyzed a field–grown zmcad2 Mutator transposon insertional mutant. Zmcad2 mutant plants had an 18% lower Klason lignin content, whereas their cellulose content was similar to that of control lines. The lignin in zmcad2 mutants contained increased levels of hydroxycinnamaldehydes, i.e. the substrates of ZmCAD2, ferulic acid and tricin. Ferulates decorating hemicelluloses were not altered. Phenolic profiling further revealed that hydroxycinnamaldehydes are partly converted into (dihydro)ferulic acid and sinapic acid and their derivatives in zmcad2 mutants. Syringyl lactic acid hexoside, a metabolic sink in CAD–deficient dicot trees, appeared not to be a sink in zmcad2 maize. The enzymatic cellulose–to–glucose conversion efficiency was determined after 10 different thermochemical pre–treatments. Zmcad2 yielded significantly higher conversions compared with controls for almost every pre–treatment. However, the relative increase in glucose yields after alkaline pre–treatment was not higher than the relative increase when no pre–treatment was applied, suggesting that the positive effect of the incorporation of hydroxycinnamaldehydes was leveled off by the negative effect of reduced p–coumarate levels in the cell wall. Here, taken together, our results reveal how phenolic metabolism is affected in CAD–deficient maize, and further support mutating CAD genes in cereal crops as a promising strategy to improve lignocellulosic biomass for sugar–platform biorefineries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

NASA NTRS2023

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2019

Protein expression and gene editing in monocots using foxtail mosaic virus vectors

Abstract Plant viruses can be engineered to carry sequences that direct silencing of target host genes, expression of heterologous proteins, or editing of host genes. A set of foxtail mosaic virus (FoMV) vectors was developed that can be used for transient gene expression and single guide RNA delivery for Cas9‐mediated gene editing in maize, Setaria viridis , and Nicotiana benthamiana . This was accomplished by duplicating the FoMV capsid protein subgenomic promoter, abolishing the unnecessary open reading frame 5A, and inserting a cloning site containing unique restriction endonuclease cleavage sites immediately after the duplicated promoter. The modified FoMV vectors transiently expressed green fluorescent protein (GFP) and bialaphos resistance (BAR) protein in leaves of systemically infected maize seedlings. GFP was detected in epidermal and mesophyll cells by epifluorescence microscopy, and expression was confirmed by Western blot analyses. Plants infected with FoMV carrying the bar gene were temporarily protected from a glufosinate herbicide, and expression was confirmed using a rapid antibody‐based BAR strip test. Expression of these proteins was stabilized by nucleotide substitutions in the sequence of the duplicated promoter region. Single guide RNAs expressed from the duplicated promoter mediated edits in the N. benthamiana Phytoene desaturase gene, the S. viridis Carbonic anhydrase 2 gene, and the maize HKT1 gene encoding a potassium transporter. The efficiency of editing was enhanced in the presence of synergistic viruses and a viral silencing suppressor. This work expands the utility of FoMV for virus‐induced gene silencing (VIGS), virus‐mediated overexpression (VOX), and virus‐enabled gene editing (VEdGE) in monocots.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Cry1A(b)16 toxin from Bacillus thuringiensis : Theoretical refinement of three‐dimensional structure and prediction of peptides as molecular markers for detection of genetically modified organisms

ABSTRACT Transgenic maize produced by the insertion of the Cry transgene into its genome became the second most cultivated crop worldwide. Cry gene from Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki expresses protein derivatives of crystalline endotoxins which confer insect resistance onto the maize crop. Mandatory labeling of processed food containing or made by genetically modified organisms is in force in many countries, so, it is very urgent to develop fast and practical methods for GMO identification, for example, biosensors. In the absence of an available empirical structure of Cry1A(b)16 protein, a theoretical model was effectively generated, in this work, by homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulations based on two available homologous protein structures. Molecular dynamics simulations were carried out to refine the selected model, and an analysis of its global structure was performed. The refined models of Cry1A(b)16 showed a standard fold and structural characteristics similar to those seen in Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1A(a) insecticidal toxin and Bacillus thuringiensis serovar kurstaki Cry1A(c) toxin. After in silico analysis of Cry1A(b)16, two immunoreactive candidate peptides were selected and specific polyclonal antibodies were produced resulting in antibody–peptide interaction. Biosensing devices are expected to be developed for detection of the Cry1A(b) protein as a marker of transgenic maize in food. Proteins 2017; 85:1248–1257. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Plácido, Alexandra↗

DOE OSTI2019

From plot to scale: ex-ante assessment of conservation agriculture in Zambia

This study combined bottom-up and top-down approaches to assess the ex-ante effects of conservation agriculture (CA)-based systems in Zambia considering both biophysical and economic factors and prevailing farm systems characteristics. For continuous maize cropping we compared a CA-based system of no-tillage with crop residue retention to a control system of conventional tillage with crop residue removal. First, we simulated yield effects that were calibrated and evaluated against multiple datasets, including on-farm agronomic trials from two seasons and six sites. Next, we extrapolated our simulations to all maize-growing areas in Zambia using gridded climate and soil datasets. Then simulated yields (in kg ha( -1 )) were combined with economic data from a nationally-representative household survey to construct economic indicators including benefit-cost ratios (based on gross benefits and variable costs both in $ ha( -1 )) that captured the implicit value of crop residues and labor demands. The field scale (per ha) indicators were scaled out using harvested areas as an expansion factor. All indicators were calculated over 3-, 10-, and 20-year simulation periods using an interpolated sequence of historical climate data. Finally, we conducted a spatial farm typology analysis to help understand the spatial variation in our field-scale indicators and provide insights into trade-offs and the suitability of CA-based systems for farmers. Average changes in yield from using CA-based systems (compared with the control) at the district scale ranged from -37% to 70% (average 33%), with a similar range of changes in benefit-cost ratios once economic factors were included, in addition to intra-district yield variability. Combining the changes in benefit cost ratios with maize harvested area resulted in an average annual change in district-scale net benefit ranging from US $ - 3.9 to US $9.9 million (with an average of US $1.1 million). The heterogeneity in biophysical and economic factors gave a ranking of provinces different according to biophysical or economic indicators, reinforcing the importance of coupling biophysical and economic approaches. The spatial farm typology analysis highlighted the specific contexts of farmers relevant to the suitability of CA, such as their mineral fertilizer applications rates, ownership of livestock, and prevailing soil texture and rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Wox3 -patterning module organizes planar growth in grass leaves and ligules

Grass leaves develop from a ring of primordial initial cells within the periphery of the shoot apical meristem, a pool of organogenic stem cells that generates all of the organs of the plant shoot. At maturity, the grass leaf is a flattened, strap-like organ comprising a proximal supportive sheath surrounding the stem and a distal photosynthetic blade. The sheath and blade are partitioned by a hinge-like auricle and the ligule, a fringe of epidermally derived tissue that grows from the adaxial (top) leaf surface. Together, the ligule and auricle comprise morphological novelties that are specific to grass leaves. Understanding how the planar outgrowth of grass leaves and their adjoining ligules is genetically controlled can yield insight into their evolutionary origins. Here we use single-cell RNA-sequencing analyses to identify a ‘rim’ cell type present at the margins of maize leaf primordia. Cells in the leaf rim have a distinctive identity and share transcriptional signatures with proliferating ligule cells, suggesting that a shared developmental genetic programme patterns both leaves and ligules. Moreover, we show that rim function is regulated by genetically redundant Wuschel-like homeobox3 (WOX3) transcription factors. Higher-order mutations in maize Wox3 genes greatly reduce leaf width and disrupt ligule outgrowth and patterning. Together, these findings illustrate the generalizable use of a rim domain during planar growth of maize leaves and ligules, and suggest a parsimonious model for the homology of the grass ligule as a distal extension of the leaf sheath margin.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗