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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Multirate partitioned Runge–Kutta methods for coupled Navier–Stokes equations

Earth system models are complex integrated models of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. Coupling the components can be a significant challenge due to the difference in physics, temporal, and spatial scales. Further, this study explores multirate partitioned Runge-Kutta methods for the fluid-fluid interaction problem and demonstrates its parallel performance by using the PETSc library. We consider compressible Navier-Stokes equations with gravity coupled through a rigid-lid interface. Our large-scale numerical experiments reveal that multirate partitioned Runge-Kutta coupling schemes (1) can conserve total mass; (2) have second-order accuracy in time; and (3) provide favorable strong- and weak-scaling performance on modern computing architectures. We also show that the speedup factors of multirate partitioned Runge-Kutta methods match theoretical expectations over their base (single-rate) method.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measuring multiple cosmogenic nuclides in glacial cobbles sheds light on Greenland Ice Sheet processes

The behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Pleistocene remains uncertain due to the paucity of evidence predating the Last Glacial Maximum. In this study, we employ a novel approach, cosmogenic nuclide analysis of individual subglacially-derived cobbles, which allows us to make inferences about ice sheet processes and subglacial erosion. From three locations in western Greenland, we collected 86 cobbles from the current ice sheet margin and nine cobbles exposed on the modern proglacial land surface. We measured the concentration of in situ 10 Be in all cobbles (n = 95) and 26 Al and 14 C in a subset (n = 14). Cobbles deposited during Holocene retreat have 10 Be exposure ages generally consistent with the timing of ice retreat determined by other methods. Conversely, most of the 86 subglacial cobbles contain very low concentrations of 10 Be (median 1.0×10 3 atoms g –1 ), although several have ~10 4 and one has ~10 5 atoms g –1 . The low concentrations of 10 Be in most subglacial cobbles imply that their source areas under the Greenland Ice Sheet are deeply eroded, preserving minimal evidence of surface or near-surface exposure. The presence of measurable 14 C in ten of the cobbles requires that they experienced cosmogenic nuclide production within the past ~30 ka; however, 14 C/ 10 Be ratios of ~6 suggest that nuclide production occurred during shielding by overlying material. Only two of the 86 subglacial cobbles definitively have cosmogenic nuclide concentrations consistent with prior surface exposure. Overall, isotopic analysis of subglacial cobbles indicates that much of western Greenland's subglacial landscape is characterized by deep erosion and minimal subaerial exposure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geophysical monitoring using active seismic techniques at the Citronelle Alabama CO 2 storage demonstration site

Between August 2012 and September 2014, about 114,000 metric tonnes of CO 2 was captured from the coal-fired Plant Barry Power Station at Bucks Alabama and injected into the Paluxy Formation above the oil pool in the southeast unit of the Citronelle Oilfield. Various monitoring methods were deployed at land surface and in project wells to measure system performance, comply with permit requirements and test new and innovative monitoring tools. The monitoring program relied heavily on active seismic methods for subsurface imaging of geologic structure and time-lapse seismic techniques to track the CO 2 migration in the injection interval. Both conventional geophone/hydrophone and fiber-optic based Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) arrays were deployed and tested, allowing a side by side comparison of the equipment and techniques. Geophysical imaging of the subsurface was successful using DAS in the offset vertical seismic profile (OVSP) survey configuration. A high resolution OVSP image of the subsurface was obtained in 2014 with DAS, which exceeded project expectations in comparison to a lower resolution image obtained in 2012 using a conventional 80-level geophone array. A time-lapse image of the redistribution of CO 2 after injection ended in September 2014 was obtained with two DAS OVSP surveys from June 2014 and December 2015, thus successfully demonstrating its proof-of-concept. Unfortunately, a pre-injection baseline survey with DAS, which was in its initial stage of technology development in 2012, did not have sufficient quality for use, making it difficult to interpret the acquired DAS time-lapse difference. Additional research in this area has since demonstrated the utility of time-lapse DAS OVSP. DAS data were also acquired during a cross-well seismic survey conducted in 2014. Unfortunately, the DAS technique was not success in the cross-well survey configuration because the system noise level was too high in the crosswell frequency output range (100–1200 Hz) of the piezoelectric source (increasing by a factor of ten compared to VSP frequency band). Additionally, the cross-well geometry causes sub-horizontal (broadside) incidence on the vertical DAS fiber cable, which is known to be problematic. Current research is focused on improving the DAS cable response to broadside acoustic energy. Time-lapse seismic surveys using commercially available conventional arrays were also acquired. In contrast to the DAS acquired data, the cross-well seismic results obtained with the conventional array was highly successful and clearly showed the CO 2 remained in zone at the end of injection. Time-lapse differencing of the OSVP surveys acquired with the conventional arrays proved to be inconclusive. Finally, changes in wellbore conditions between surveys and unavoidable changes in equipment (the array used for the baseline survey was retired) affected data quality, making it difficult to interpret the OVSP results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The root-zone soil moisture spectrum in a mediterranean ecosystem

Storage of water within soil pores of the root zone introduce memory effects in the dynamics of soil moisture that are considerably longer than the integral timescale of many atmospheric processes. Thus, hydro-climatic states can be “sustained” through land-surface heat and water vapor fluxes primarily because they can “feed off” on this long-term soil moisture memory. Root-zone soil moisture memory is only but one feature characterizing the spectrum of soil moisture dynamics, which is analyzed here using a combination of long-term measurements and models. In particular, the spectrum of root-zone soil moisture content in a Mediterranean ecosystem is examined using 14-years of half-hourly measurements. A distinguishing hydro-climatic feature in such ecosystems is that sources (mainly rainfall) and sinks (mainly evapotranspiration) of soil moisture are roughly out of phase with each other. For over 4 decades of time scales and 7 decades of energy, the canonical shape of the measured soil moisture spectrum is shown to be approximately Lorentzian determined by the soil moisture variance and its memory but with two exceptions: the occurrences of a peak at diurnal-to-daily time scales and a weaker peak at near annual time scales. Model calculations and spectral analysis demonstrate that diurnal and seasonal variations in hydroclimate forcing responsible for variability in evapotranspiration had minor impact on the normalized shape of the soil moisture spectrum. However, their impact was captured by adjustments in the temporal variance. These findings indicate that precipitation and not evapotranspiration variability dominates the multi-scaling properties of soil moisture variability consistent with prior climate model simulations. Furthermore, the soil moisture memory inferred by the annual peak of soil moisture (340 d) is consistent with climate model simulations, while the memory evaluated from the loss function of a linearized mass balance approach leads to a smaller value (50 d), highlighting the effect of weak non-stationarity on soil moisture variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes: I. Model Structure and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Environmental changes are anticipated to generate substantial impacts on carbon cycling in peatlands, affecting terrestrial‐climate feedbacks. Understanding how peatland methane (CH 4 ) fluxes respond to these changing environments is critical for predicting the magnitude of feedbacks from peatlands to global climate change. To improve predictions of CH 4 fluxes in response to changes such as elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and warming, it is essential for Earth system models to include increased realism to simulate CH 4 processes in a more mechanistic way. To address this need, we incorporated a new microbial‐functional group‐based CH 4 module into the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM) and tested it with multiple observational data sets at an ombrotrophic peatland bog in northern Minnesota. The model is able to simulate observed land surface CH 4 fluxes and fundamental mechanisms contributing to these throughout the soil profile. The model reproduced the observed vertical distributions of dissolved organic carbon and acetate concentrations. The seasonality of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis—two key processes for CH 4 production—and CH 4 concentration along the soil profile were accurately simulated. Meanwhile, the model estimated that plant‐mediated transport, diffusion, and ebullition contributed to ∼23.5%, 15.0%, and 61.5% of CH 4 transport, respectively. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that CH 4 substrate and CH 4 production were the most critical mechanisms regulating temporal patterns of surface CH 4 fluxes both under ambient conditions and warming treatments. This knowledge will be used to improve Earth system model predictions of these high‐carbon ecosystems from plot to regional scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

ECOSTRESS: NASA's Next Generation Mission to Measure Evapotranspiration From the International Space Station

Abstract The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) was launched to the International Space Station on 29 June 2018 by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The primary science focus of ECOSTRESS is centered on evapotranspiration (ET), which is produced as Level‐3 (L3) latent heat flux ( LE ) data products. These data are generated from the Level‐2 land surface temperature and emissivity product (L2_LSTE), in conjunction with ancillary surface and atmospheric data. Here, we provide the first validation (Stage 1, preliminary) of the global ECOSTRESS clear‐sky ET product (L3_ET_PT‐JPL, Version 6.0) against LE measurements at 82 eddy covariance sites around the world. Overall, the ECOSTRESS ET product performs well against the site measurements (clear‐sky instantaneous/time of overpass: r 2 = 0.88; overall bias = 8%; normalized root‐mean‐square error, RMSE = 6%). ET uncertainty was generally consistent across climate zones, biome types, and times of day (ECOSTRESS samples the diurnal cycle), though temperate sites are overrepresented. The 70‐m‐high spatial resolution of ECOSTRESS improved correlations by 85%, and RMSE by 62%, relative to 1‐km pixels. This paper serves as a reference for the ECOSTRESS L3 ET accuracy and Stage 1 validation status for subsequent science that follows using these data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Ambient Noise Analyses Reveal Changing Temperature and Water Signals to 10s of Meters Depth in the Critical Zone

The critical zone sustains terrestrial life, but we have few tools to explore it efficiently beyond the first few meters of the subsurface. Using analyses of high-frequency ambient seismic noise from densely spaced seismometers deployed in the forested Shale Hills subcatchment of the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), we show that temporal changes in seismic velocities at depths from ~1 m to tens of m can be detected. Furthermore, these changes are driven by variations at the land surface. The Moving-Window Cross-Spectral (MWCS) method was employed to measure seismic-velocity changes in coda waves at hourly resolution in 10 different frequency bands. We observed a diurnal signal, a seasonal signal, and a meteorological-event-based signal. These signals were compared to time-series measurements of precipitation, well water levels, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, latent heat flux, and air pressure in the heavily instrumented catchment. Most of the velocity changes can be explained by variations in temperature that result in thermoelastic strains that propagate to depth. But some double minima in seismic velocity time-series observed after large rain events were attributed in part to the effects of water infiltration. These results show that high-frequency ambient noise data may in some locations be used to detect changes in the critical zone from ~1 to ~100 m or greater depth with hourly resolution. But interpretation of such data requires multiple environmental data sets to deconvolve the complex interrelationships among thermoelastic and hydrological effects in the subsurface critical zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon Dioxide Production in Bedrock Beneath Soils Substantially Contributes to Forest Carbon Cycling

Abstract Soils are widely considered the primary terrestrial organic matter pool mediating carbon transactions with the atmosphere and groundwater. Because soils are both a host and a product of rhizosphere activity, they are thought to mark the location where photosynthetic fixation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is balanced by the oxidation of organic matter. However, in many terrestrial environments, the rhizosphere extends below soils and into fractured bedrock, and it is unknown if the resulting biological and hydrologic dynamics in bedrock have a significant impact on carbon cycling. Here we show substantial production of CO 2 in weathered bedrock at 4–8 m below the thin soils (<0.5 m thick) of a Northern California forest using innovative monitoring technology for sampling gases and water in fractured rock. The deep CO 2 production supports a persistent upward flux of CO 2(g) year‐round from bedrock to soil, constituting between 2% and 29% of the average daily CO 2 efflux from the land surface. When water is rapidly transported across the fractured bedrock vadose zone, nearly 50% of the CO 2 produced in the bedrock dissolves into water, promoting water‐rock interaction and export of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the unsaturated zone to groundwater, constituting as much as 80% of the DIC exiting the hillslope. Such CO 2 production in weathered bedrock is subject to unique moisture, temperature, biological, and mineralogical conditions which are currently missing from terrestrial carbon models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multiscale Deep Learning Model for Soil Moisture Integrating Satellite and In Situ Data

Deep learning (DL) models trained on hydrologic observations can perform extraordinarily well, but they can inherit deficiencies of the training data, such as limited coverage of in situ data or low resolution/accuracy of satellite data. In this work, we propose a novel multiscale DL scheme learning simultaneously from satellite and in situ data to predict 9 km daily soil moisture (5 cm depth). Based on spatial cross-validation over sites in the conterminous United States, the multiscale scheme obtained a median correlation of 0.901 and root-mean-square error of 0.034 m 3 /m 3 . It outperformed the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite mission's 9 km product, DL models trained on in situ data alone, and land surface models. Our 9 km product showed better accuracy than previous 1 km satellite downscaling products, highlighting limited impacts of improving resolution. Not only is our product useful for planning against floods, droughts, and pests, our scheme is generically applicable to geoscientific domains with data on multiple scales, breaking the confines of individual data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Abstract Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Efforts toward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes in these large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complex error behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted using modern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previous studies to apply an explainable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also move toward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoost classification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis to explore the errors in the prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, a widely used Earth System Model. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error and indicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics of the land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the Relative Drivers of Seasonal Evapotranspiration Across a Continental-Scale Aridity Gradient

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a significant ecosystem flux, governing the partitioning of energy at the land surface. Understanding the seasonal pattern and magnitude of ET is critical for anticipating a range of ecosystem impacts, including drought, heat-wave events, and plant mortality. Here, in this study, we identified the relative controls of seasonal variability in ET, and how these controls vary among ecosystems. We used overlapping AmeriFlux and PhenoCam time series at a daily timestep from 20 sites to explore these linkages (# site-years >100), and our study area covered a broad climatological aridity gradient in the U.S. and Canada. We focused on disentangling the most important controls of bulk surface conductance (G s ) and evaporative fraction (EF = LE/[H + LE]), where LE and H represent latent and sensible heat fluxes, respectively. Specifically, we investigated how vegetation phenology varied in importance relative to meteorological variables (vapor pressure deficit and antecedent precipitation) as a driver of G s and EF using path analysis, a framework for quantifying and comparing the causal linkages among multiple response and explanatory variables. Our results revealed that the drivers of G s and EF seasonality varied significantly between energy- and water-limited ecosystems. Specifically, precipitation had a much higher effect in water-limited ecosystems, while seasonal patterns in canopy greenness emerged as a stronger control in energy-limited ecosystems. Given that phenology is expected to shift under future climate, our findings provide key information for understanding and predicting how phenology may impact 21st-century hydroclimate regimes and the surface-energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH 4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses

Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH 4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH 4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH 4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH 4 model developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES

Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold-tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called “hardening” and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold-tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness-dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0-FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid-winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗